Westminstenders: Break Up or Make Up?

[RedToothBrush]

The next week or so appears to be yet another crunch point (not that any of these crunch points have actually resolved anything so far).

The EU is set to outline the plan for Ireland. Which everyone thought had already been outlined and agreed already. And it had been admitted was legally binding.

Except apparently we don't want to do that, and we are now crying about how the EU want to break up Britain (nothing to do with England wanting to leave the EU and Scotland and NI wanting to stay in it of course).

Jeremy Corbyn has now apparently decided that the customs union is a good idea. David Davis and Liam Fox have responded by saying that this would stop us making our own trade deals. Yes this has obviously stopped Turkey, and why aren't we doing as much trade with China etc as Germany anyway? A vote in the HoC looms before Easter. Will Tory rebels support.

Will Jeremy Corbyn bow to pressure over the single market too? The customs union alone does not stop the border issue in Ireland. Nor does it stop ridiculous queues at Dover. I'm not sure Corbyn is one for listening though. He's got a whiff of power and democracy and reality is just a hindrance to utopia.

As for the Great Repeal Bill. Word has it, its not going too clever in the HoL. The conservatives had something of a show of strength with an unusual number turning up for the debate. But few on the backbenches were willing to speak in favour of...

It all feels like we are making no progress at all. We are still bleating on about cherry picked deals as if this is a negotiation. Its not.

Anyone see Tusk just now? Looks like its Canada then ... .

That is my point Mother. Euroclearing is not being "forced" out of the City and Euroclear are making the necessary paperwork adjustments to keep clear of any new regulatory hurdles.

Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall (oft mentioned on these threads) gives an excellent summary of Russian worries about its borders (and invasion routes). And why they are happy to foment trouble elsewhere to preserve their own (perceived) security.

Tom McTague @TomMcTague
Big day in Brussels. Diplomats I’ve spoken to expect minimalist future EU-UK relationship draft guidelines. BUT I’m told to expect a “no backsliding” break clause inserted, requiring UK to make progress on withdrawal agreement. Holding feet toclause
www.politico.eu/article/council-brexit-guidelines-to-prevent-uk-backsliding-on-withdrawal-deal/
Council Brexit guidelines to prevent UK backsliding on withdrawal deal
An expected provision in the text is designed to prevent the UK from stalling on crucial aspects of the divorce document, say diplomats.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
Here we go, again.

Process, process, process.

2. Brexit is coming.

On 29 March 2019, the UK will depart from the EU by automatic operation of law.

Withdrawal agreement, or not.

Whether you like it, or not.

There are three ways this departure could be postponed/delayed or cancelled, but none of them currently seem likely.

3. The Article 50 negotiation period could be extended beyond two years, but neither UK nor EU are seeking this.

The departure date could be delayed as part of an agreed Withdrawal Agreement, but this also is not being proposed .

Or the notification could be revoked, but ditto.

4. The one thing which will not delay or revoke Brexit is the incompetence of the UK government or the increasing absurdity of the UK position.

Brexit will not stop just because it is full of contradictions, or because the UK is clueless.

Makes no difference.

Conveyor belt.

5. As and when the UK leaves the EU on 29 March 2019 (or perhaps a later date), the Brexiteers will have achieved their overall objective.

Once actually out, hard for UK to rejoin quickly.

Article 49 process. Will take time.

This is their cherished goal.

6. As long as UK is actually out, many Brexiteers will stomach continuation of payments, freedom of movement, jurisdiction of the ECJ for a long transition period.

Currently up to 31 December 2020, but probably much longer.

Because the UK will be out, and that is what matters.

7. So being flexible on transition suits Brexiteers as it does not jeapordise the UK being out.

In contrast, extensions of the Article 50 period would carry the possibility of UK changing mind and staying in.

8. How long can the transition period last?

Writing a detailed post on this, but in essence: as long as it is a transition, with the prospect of a relationship agreement at the end, then as long as it needs.

9. So that could be years, as long as nobody concerned admits aloud there will never be an end.

A transition period, and then a break, and then a relationship agreement seems unlikely.

Continuity, and all that.

10. So unless something unforeseen happens, brace (or congratulate) yourself that the UK will be leaving next year, and that as little as possible will change for a while thereafter.

If so, then all rather pointless, really.

/ends

/never ends

Bazzalisk @bazzalisk
It seems to me rather unlikely that there will still be any appetite for Brexit by the end of the transition period. It seems that it’s quite likely the new arrangement afterwards will be starting the rejoining process.

The EU Withdrawal Bill is more important than Brexit negotiations.

David Allen Green @davidallengreen
That is what wise Remainers will try to aim for.

Thread from Sam Lowe@SamuelMarcLowe

Canada +++ ? threadreaderapp.com/thread/971355054262444032.html

Meanwhile, I tried to buy some incense/joss sticks in Poundland today. They've stopped selling them because their stock (at that price) is pretty much what your suppliers have. (see also Aldi, Lidl).

Now, I will admit that I didn't grow up in East Germany in the 70s. However, I will admit that the propaganda at the time suggested that this is pretty much what it was like.

All the time.

(On a related note, it seems the only differential between the big supermarkets and the discount ones may be continuity of stock which previous generations of consumers were willing to pay a premium for. I wonder if - after 10 years of austerity - the next generation will be able to afford to be so choosy ?)

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy for answering my Q. about Germany. Maybe you could answer another about what the mood for integration (into the EU) there was in pre-1989 East Germany.

In this context, existing reciprocal access to fishing waters and resources should be maintained

....so much for fishing areas like Grimsby voting Leave

More impossible circles to square (well not really....entirely predictable )

Really interesting red
Thanks

I wonder if the EU might prefer to extend A50 rather than agree to a transition period - it is a lot simpler from their point of view: everything stays the same. At what point would this become a political possibility/necessity?

I wonder if the EU might prefer to extend A50 rather than agree to a transition period

Isn't the duration of A50 now defined by the UKs triggering of it ?

To be honest, with Trump and Putin now becoming news, I have a sneaking suspicion that Brexit is going to drift down the list of EU priorities. Especially since the UK has shown remarkably little to show for nearly 12 months of being "in" A50.

As has been said many times any time pressures on the UK are entirely of the UKs own making.

It depends on what happens at the 11th Hour.

Don't forget the Great Repeal Bill. That also has to pass. But there isn't enough parliamentary time before 29th March next year as far as Labour and the LDs are concerned to be able to properly go through things.

So you WILL see a last minute stand off on this. If Lab and the LDs allow it to go through without proper scrutiny, the country is open to all manner of problems. If they don't allow it to go through, you have in effect a legal crisis.

This is the thing MOST likely to demand an extension as it would require an extension rather than a transition period in order to facilitate this. (Unless you go to a phased step out, which has been discussed but has practical issues which might not be possible to overcome).

But this is only in the UK's interest, not the EU's. They, not us, have power to grant this, and they could well refuse. (I believe that this can not be agreed by Barnier's team alone and has to go back to the European Parliament). This will need some notice to do.

In which case, you are looking at a revocation of a50 being the alternative as there seems to be consensus that this is in the hands of the UK to control (though not necessarily as not proven in law). This seems more unlikely as politically it would destroy the EU.

Things could (will) get interesting at some point because there will be a brinkmanship scenario somewhere.

Not sure the EU would prefer to extend A50 - if they were to do that, the UK then remains a obstructive member of the EU . During the transition phase, we become, as has been described, a "vassal state" of our own choosing

Not sure the EU would prefer to extend A50

Why should they ? Any need for more time is entirely the UKs fault. An unnecessary General Election being 6 weeks pissed away for a start.

It's exactly (not even "like", exactly) the situation many here will have experienced, when you tell your errant offspring that they need to have everything ready the night before, so that you can give them a lift to wherever in the morning. Said offspring, say "yeah, yeah" and promptly spend the rest of the night doing anything but.

Come the morning, and they aren't ready, do you:

1. Indulge them, maybe help them even, and miss the coach anyway as well as getting the blame for "making them miss it"
2. Carry on as per plan, and let them sort themselves out - even if it means they miss whatever it was that was allegedly so important.

?

Been there, done that

My variant of that is "If you want your school clothes washed ready for Monday, then they need to be down by the wash basket by 12 noon on Saturday. Otherwise, you wash and iron it yourself"

I'm a baaaad good mother!

nation.cymru/2018/tory-brexiteers-want-a-return-to-a-hyper-centralized-british-state-we-must-resist/

Steffan Lewis AM
It is highly unusual for the five parties represented in the National Assembly for Wales to unite and find agreement on something. It is hard to find common ground between the members of Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives, Labour and UKIP.
Yet last month the Assembly spoke with one voice when a Plaid Cymru motion calling for a Welsh Continuity Bill passed unanimously. It sent a clear message to Westminster: Wales will take legislative action to defend our democracy from an unacceptable power-grab.
Yesterday, the Welsh Government finally introduced a Continuity Bill, now technically titled the Law Derived from the European Union (Wales) Bill, and it will be fast-tracked through the legislative process under emergency procedures.
The Scottish Government has also introduced its own bill, and plans to do the same. By the end of March we will be facing a crisis that puts the constitution of the UK under threat.
The principle is clear. The EU referendum was not a vote to roll-back the powers of the devolved legislatures. The leave vote did not grant the Conservatives in Westminster a mandate to reverse the results of the two referenda in which the people of Wales chose devolution.
Throughout the campaign, we were promised the opposite, that a vote to leave would mean we could take control of greater powers over our own affairs, free from Europe’s rules.

Yet the EU Withdrawal Bill, which is ostensibly a tidying-up exercise to prepare for Brexit, is being used to smuggle-past the removal of Welsh powers.
Currently, EU rules form a ceiling that limits the powers of the Welsh Assembly over matters like agriculture and the environment. When we leave, that ceiling will be lifted, while the powers should remain in place in Wales.
The EU Withdrawal Bill overrides that and will return those powers to Westminster indefinitely, giving the current UK Cabinet, who have only ever been responsible for England, unlimited control over Welsh policy.
This is unacceptable and undemocratic. Whether they voted leave or remain, people did not vote to see UK Ministers seize control of powers that have rested in Wales for almost twenty years.
Threat
A Continuity Bill will transfer those same EU rules into Welsh law, and give Welsh Ministers the power to amend them.
It is a preemptive step to protect the devolution settlement and must be passed before the EU Withdrawal Bill comes into force. It has been judged to be within the competence of the National Assembly of Wales by our Presiding Officer.
Yet before it has passed, the UK Government is already threatening to challenge the Bill in the Supreme Court.
This is a constitutional crisis of the Conservatives’ own making.It is, quite frankly, inexplicable.
Why would an overstretched Whitehall, working to full capacity to deliver Brexit on a tight timetable, choose to pick an unnecessary, time consuming legal battle with the devolved nations?
I fear the truth is that the Brexiteers, drunk on their referendum success, sense that a return of the ‘good old days’ is possible.
The days of a hyper-centralized British state, Westminster sovereign and distant, and the UK throwing its weight around on the global stage.
As the British nationalists are learning in the negotiations with Brussels, the world today is very different from the world of 1950. British imperial might has gone and it’s never coming back.
Our separation from the EU will make it necessary to come to new internal agreements between the nations of these islands to ensure that we can work together on fair terms.
This was one of the key priorities in Wales’ Brexit White Paper, jointly authored by Plaid Cymru and Welsh Government.
The White Paper also prioritized continuing participation in the EU single market and the customs union in order to mitigate the impact of Brexit on Wales’ economy.
Although the First Minister was recently forced into an embarrassing U-turn into embracing Jeremy Corbyn’s fudge of ‘a customs union’ half way through a trip to the US.
On Friday, Theresa May set out her five Brexit tests to guide the UK in Brexit negotiations. They included bringing the UK together.
Yet her Government is pursuing an aggressive, re-centralizing agenda that is increasingly bringing into question the durability of the UK as a concept.
Plaid Cymru will not allow the Conservatives to undermine the democratic will of the Welsh people and we cannot allow the Brexit vote to be used as an excuse to roll-back the hard-won powers of our national parliament.

Not sure the EU would prefer to extend A50

Why should they ?

Because they are the adults in the room and tend to behave pragmatically. While crashing out of the EU will have horrific consequences for the UK, the EU (and particularly Ireland) would also be affected. I'm not for a moment pretending that it is in their interests to give us a good deal because we deserve it, German cars, French cheese blah, but the EU knows that the UK crashing out will be problematic for its neighbours and the EU nationals based here (and UK nationals in Europe). They have said this several times.

So, given the three choices that DAG lays out, would the EU prefer the UK to stay in the union (they'd prefer that and have said so on many occasions, it would solve a lot of problems but seems very unlikely at the moment), extend A50 which seems pretty straightforward administratively (and leaves the door open to our returning to the fold) or negotiate a bitterly-contested transition period where everything from its length, its terms and even its name ("implementation term") is fought over? Extending A50 seems the simplest option if the UK can get to a position where it is politically viable.

This won’t come as a surprise

Peter Geoghegan
@PeterKGeoghegan
Parliament has just voted to only reveal Northern Irish political donations from 2017 on. A vote not to reveal who gave DUP £435k for Brexit

I wonder how the uk government will react if it was found to be the Kremlin

Sergei Skripal believed to have been poisoned with nerve agent

Investigators think nerve agent deliberately used on former spy and his daughter in Salisbury

amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/mar/07/russian-spy-police-appeal-for-witnesses-as-cobra-meeting-takes-place

From another Guardian article on the poisoning
“One former senior Foreign Office adviser suggested the Kremlin was taking advantage of the UK’s lack of allies in the US and EU. He said the British government was in a “weaker position” than in 2006 when two Kremlin assassins poisoned the former FSB officer Alexander Litvinenko with a radioactive cup of tea.”

@PeterKGeoghegan
Parliament has just voted to only reveal Northern Irish political donations from 2017 on. A vote not to reveal who gave DUP £435k for Brexit

Is this as shocking as it sounds ? Is this just limited to NI ? I thought donations were public knowledge or am I being naïve ?

One former senior Foreign Office adviser suggested the Kremlin was taking advantage of the UK’s lack of allies in the US and EU

This, this! Don't you see Brexiters we need to belong to a powerful union.

I wonder how the uk government will react if it was found to be the Kremlin

We already know - it's hardly a secret is it ?

When this was hitting the news yesterday (Today R4) a reporter asked a Russian expert why do these things happen to Russians in the UK ?

The rather unpleasant, but true, reply was because the UK has shown it's a soft touch to Russian aggression ... look at the Litvinenko incident. Over 10 years to finally get an inquiry, Hardly had the Russians quaking in their snow covered boots.

He also advanced the suggestion that if the attack was Putin-ordered, the reason was more political - to bolster Putins turnout in the forthcoming elections - than espionage.

[...] the police officer who was first to the spot where the pair were found in Salisbury on Sunday afternoon was now “seriously ill” in hospital. His condition had deteriorated, Rowley said, adding: “Wiltshire police are providing support to his family.”

This might force the issue a bit more