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Brexit

Westministenders: Groundhog Day

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/02/2018 16:20

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

OP posts:
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BiglyBadgers · 23/02/2018 07:07

Colour my cynically, but I can't help but find it not at all surprising that conservatives are suddenly shouting unity just as labour announce Corbyn is giving a speech on their brexit position. Hmm

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 07:33

Could this be the part where the UK puts forward it's "reasonable" deal (which is going to be rejected) so it can play the "poor us" card before storming out ?

All the EUs fault, naturally.

lalalonglegs · 23/02/2018 08:11

I was about to say the same thing, DG. It's interesting that the government - and the press - seem to think getting the Cabinet/party to agree on an approach is more important than considering whether it will be acceptable to the EU Hmm. What are the odds on the new position being a complete fantasy/having no understanding of the way the EU/SM works?

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 08:24

I just think the MSM has been complicit in a drip feed of giving the impression that DD is beavering away (mind bleach, please) and the UK has been ever so reasonable, so any SNAFUs must be the EUs fault.

It has nothing to do with reality, and everything to do with presentation.

The question is, if that is the case, then what will TM &c do with it as a piece of ammunition ? Because one possible outcome is to have a massive hissy fit, turn the Mail, Express and Telegraph up to 11 (they'd need to go some way to match the Beebs all out 100) and try and arrange a climate where we have to have a General Election, and only the Tories can deliver the "soft" Brexit the UK wanted all along. Possibly egged on as showing how "brave" she is ?

We know how moronic some Brexiteers can be (looks down the threads). They'd lap this stuff up ... there's no easier job than convincing someone that what they believe is true. Honestly.

Peregrina · 23/02/2018 08:25

So agreeing to stick to the EU rules is fine for the day after we leave. What happens when the rules diverge? Do our firms have to send goods to EU regulatory bodies to have them accepted. Or do we have to have our own regulatory body which has the same or higher standards?

Peregrina · 23/02/2018 08:33

and try and arrange a climate where we have to have a General Election, and only the Tories can deliver the "soft" Brexit the UK wanted all along.

Yes, but the Press tried that with the last election - anti Corbyn all the way, quoting voters who said 'We can't vote for Corbyn', and what happened? He gained 30 seats, so the Press onslaught didn't help the Tories. I am no fan of Corbyn but he did well getting his vote out, considering all that was against him. The Tories only managed to scrape their minority with the help of the Scottish Tories.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 08:49

What happens when the rules diverge?

what happens when the UK is told they can't ?

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 09:10

They called Labour / Michael Foot's 1983 Manifesto "The longest suicide note in history"
We need an inventive title for the next GE, very possibly one each for the Labour and Tory parties

This FT article was shortly after the ref, but captures what happened and why

  • a Bullingdon spat like trashing restaurants on a national scale, that leaves ordinary people in the wreckage,

“Brexit: a coup by one set of public schoolboys against another.”

https://www.ft.com/content/f4dedd92-43c7-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d

prettybird · 23/02/2018 09:12

Can't remember if it was on here or on yesterday's Sky Daily Politics, but regulatory alignment only works on Day 1 - what about the next day and the day after that?

Unless you commit legally to continuing to align fully, then the commitment is worthless. Confused

Peregrina · 23/02/2018 09:14

but regulatory alignment only works on Day 1

It reminds me of a story of an ex British Indian Army officer. The day after Independence a riot broke out in what had been his territory. He went into town and quelled it, and fortunately for him and all concerned, no one twigged that he no longer had the slightest authority to do so.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 09:15

I cannot believe why there hasn't been a national outcry, all parties
If the UK gets a bad deal / no-deal, this is clearly the reason:

20 months after the EU Ref, the Cabinet is still meeting to decide its Brexit strategy

This is not refining minor issues; it is a Tory civil war about fundamental principles

I wonder if this will also happen over trade deals with the US and other non-EU countries
The UK will get taken to the cleaners all around the world

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 09:16

The EU has already signalled it's wise to the ways of deception (you'd think Brexiteers with their innate stereotypes and racism would automatically assume damn foreigners are sneaky cheats anyway). Hence the requirement for things in writing, and a warning of good faith.

I'm relaxed that if the EU is happy with a proposal, it's been nailed down tight.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 09:28

pretty Worse than that:
unless there is a deal encompassing SM+CU then

one minute after Brexit / when transition ends, the UK becomes a 3rd country and will be treated as such by the EU and everyone else

  • UK goods will no longer be in EU databases as approved for imports

  • The EU must check all imports from the UK - more than for any other WTO member, because none except Mauritius trade on pure WTO terms

  • RNorth thinks UK exports of food / agricultural products to the EU will stop for at least 6 months and that all trade will be hammered

  • All certifications for cars, components, manufactured goods etc issued in the UK will be non-valid,
    so these must be done in EU facilities _ which don't have the capacity atm

  • Without a Passporting deal, the City would have to stop its lucrative Euro activity

Also, unless the govt gets a replacement for Open Skies, flights out of the UK will stop too

Too many consequences to list
That is why May didn't simply roll over to the Ultras to keep the Tory oarty united - an economic crash of the kind we haven't seen before.
Why she just has to have a deal

but we may yet have an accidental Brexit due to her govt squabbling, dithering, ignorance and incompetence

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 09:33

If the Uk and EU agree the outlines or end strategy for a deal,
then the WTO waiver system should allow things to continue mostly as before until all the details are worked out and the final deal signed by all parties

BUT not if there is no agreed end point, just a wish for unicorn cake and the bombastic belief that the UK is special

prettybird · 23/02/2018 09:44

I realise that BigChoc - but part of the point I was making/saw made was that even in the sunny uplands fantasy scenario beloved of the Brexiters that it will all be easy because we will be aligned an Day 1 and that we can sign a free trade deal on that basis means nothing_ unless we commit to maintaining that in writing Confused

And of course, the cavalier way in which WM is treating the GFA will ensure that every country will want any deal to be tied down so tight that the pips squeak. Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 09:57

DD going around grinning every time he agrees terms with the EU, to tell everyone "we didn't mean it" Confused
I know Brexiters don't deign to look at furrin media, but Barnier and all EU leaders have people monitoring ours

Then Brexiters get angry that Barnier wants every detail written down and signed
It's like expecting a "trust bar" for drinks, when you go around telling everyone you won't be paying for whiskies

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 23/02/2018 10:54

Chuka Umunna
‏*@ChukaUmunna*
BREAKING: the @eurelationsappg new cross party clause 5 to the Trade Bill just tabled by @AnnaSoubry,me, @NickyMorgan01, @SHammond & others providing for the UK to continue participating in a Customs Union with the EU -I believe we have a majority in the House of Commons for it

Anna Soubry MP
‏**@Anna**_Soubry
More Anna Soubry MP Retweeted Chuka Umunna
I understand many others will add their names today.

I went to a community meeting with a lib dem MP from a neighbouring constituency this week. He put forward three situations that he thought were plausible, but not guaranteed, that might cause Brexit to fall apart, though as he pointed out sadly all of them depended on what actions the Tories took.

One of them was that the government started losing internal support and couldn't vote brexit legislation through, at which point they might think calling an election was better than limping on without a mandate or the power to enact their agenda. I wonder if this might be the beginning of that scenario (though I'm more pessimistic about their determination to cling to power than he seemed to be, and he also didn't seem to include no deal as a potential outcome though it may just be he didn't have time to talk about it).

Westministenders: Groundhog Day
TheElementsSong · 23/02/2018 11:01

From the FT Grin:

To the undoubted relief of everyone concerned, David Davis, the Brexit secretary, announced on Monday that the UK was not seeking a dystopian “Mad Max-style” Brexit. At one level this is a shame because the cars in that movie are well cool. Kudos, though, to Mr Davis, who was of course trying to mock the fears of Brexit’s opponents, for an A-grade effort in expectation management. However bad it may be, Brits can rest easy that Brexit will not be a post-apocalyptic dystopia characterised by societal collapse, murder and Jacob Rees-Mogg and his gang terrorising the roads in pinstriped suits and Bentleys.

Then again, there was a disturbing specificity to Mr Davis’s point. He did not rule out all dystopian visions. Only Mad Max. While murderous biker-gangs form no part of the Brexit planning, this column understands that several other movie dystopias remain on the table. Indeed, the 62 Conservative MPs in Mr Rees-Mogg’s European Research Group are said to be urging the prime minister to hang tough on the “dystopia red lines” they consider to be part and parcel of a hard Brexit. The Financial Times has seen a secret memo listing the options:

Hunger Games Brexit The version championed by both the so-called soft-Brexiters and Remainers seeking to minimise economic disruption. Under this plan, 24 children from Remain enclaves are chosen by ballot and offered each year as tributes to the European Commission in return for continued British access to the single market. The 24 are then forced to stalk each other through the Berlaymont building until there is just one survivor, who will then be offered a deputy chef de cabinet role. The UK government is pushing for a chess tournament instead of murder, but it is understood that the French and a number of MEPs are insisting on full human sacrifice, so that all nations understand the true cost of Brexit.

Fahrenheit 451 Brexit In this Brexit, the fire service no longer exists to put out fires, but to burn books and reports issued by the Bank of England, the Treasury and any other economic experts. The populace now relies solely on TV for entertainment. The most popular daily show is Good Morning Britain with Rod Liddle and Katie Hopkins. Remainers are forced to live as outcasts in the countryside, where they spend their time busily learning economic reports by heart so that they can still keep quoting them decades after Brexit has happened.

Blade Runner Brexit A dark vision of Britain’s future in which everyone is forced to eat from roadside food stalls stocked with chlorinated chicken imported under a groundbreaking trade deal negotiated with the US. Teams of armed cops are recruited to hunt down replicants — European citizens who look just like normal human beings and who were brought in to work undesirable jobs in off-world colonies such as fruit-picking farms. But they fled those roles and are now hiding out in Pret A Manger. It is always raining.

Terminator Brexit Perhaps the most ambitious of all Brexits. This sees a robotic terminator sent back from the future to the year 1972 to murder Sir Edward Heath before he can sign the Treaty of Accession. The terminator, a well dressed Brit with a cut-glass accent, has memorable catchphrases such as “You can count upon my expeditious return” and “Cheerio, baby”. His success means the UK never actually joined the EU and so angry Remainers never existed. A sequel will see future rebels send back their own terminator in the shape of Nick Clegg to foment a pro-European movement which will seek to join the EU some time after Serbia.

RoboCop Brexit The promised frictionless technological solution for policing the Irish border. RoboCops are deployed in border towns such as Derry and Culmore and are able to scan all vehicles for illicit consignments. This plan is currently on hold as Sinn Fein insists all RoboCops speak Gaelic while the Democratic Unionists are demanding they also be fluent in Ulster Scots.

The Matrix Brexit UK citizens are implanted with devices which make them believe everything is normal and that life is good. Several prominent Leavers have already plugged in and they say it is great.

Real life Brexit The country is committed to leaving the EU in 12 months but, after a year of arguing, the cabinet seems unable to agree even a basic framework for how it will work. Some consider this the most dystopian vision of all.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 11:17

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43167824

Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has said there is no possibility that the government would back remaining in a customs union after Brexit.

(contd)

Has a government ever seemed less competent ?

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 11:31

I would so buy a bottle of Fairy if they ran this ad ...

Westministenders: Groundhog Day
BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 12:25

Elements, DG

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 12:26
Grin
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 23/02/2018 12:26

Ha! That would be great marketing

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Tory rebels estimate that they have got 15+ votes to force Theresa May to stay in "a" customs unions

Big Parliamentary battle ahead, set for May

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 12:30

Tory rebels estimate that they have got 15+ votes to force Theresa May to stay in "a" customs unions

Which Jeremy Hunt has explicitly ruled out.

It's hard to see how the Tories ever had a reputation for "understanding business" - who on earth would ever want to try and do business in a country that is so shambolic ?

Even Soviet Russias 5-years plans worked better !

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