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Brexit

Westministenders: Groundhog Day

994 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/02/2018 16:20

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

OP posts:
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BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 13:38

After the dog & pony show at Chequers …

The cabinet have agreed on a Brexit that they can’t get through Parliament
and to which the EU won’t agree anyway.

Genius

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 23/02/2018 14:17

Perhaps betraying their intention to capitulate to the ERGers entirely and pursue a no deal.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 15:35

BMW starting to jump ship ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43166956

Electric-powered Mini cars are to be built in China, as well as in Oxford where most Minis are currently made.

BMW, the owner of the Mini brand, said it had agreed an outline deal with Chinese manufacturer Great Wall Motor.

LondonMum8 · 23/02/2018 15:54

@DGRossetti How is such an adverse event possible despite Brexiters, @FaithHopeCharityDesperation in particular, demonstrating a strong global outlook which I thought is a sufficient condition for companies to flock to manufacture in Global Britain, not the other way around?

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 15:56

@DGRossetti How is such an adverse event possible despite Brexiters, @FaithHopeCharityDesperation in particular, demonstrating a strong global outlook which I thought is a sufficient condition for companies to flock to manufacture in Global Britain, not the other way around?

Maybe they are full of shit ?

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 15:59

At the risk of thinking, what suits other countries best ? A strong vibrant UK, nicking all their trade. Or a crippled, weakened UK that doesn't really interfere ?

A previous company I worked for (I actually got it out of a CVA) was eventually bought up by a rival, as it was the cheapest way to eliminate the competition.

I suspect the UK will have lots of bargain basement deals post Brexit - with the 20% devaluation of sterling a nice-to-have.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 16:54

While the govt is faffing around in fantasy land - trying to keep it all secret -
the E27 published its updated negotiating framework and the regulatory issues post-Brexit

21 Feb 2018 Internal E27 preparatory discussions on framework for future relationship: “regulatory issues”

Clear slide show - I wonder if DD will pay attention, or even attend

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slidesregulatoryy_issues.pdf

Notices from the departments of the European Commission on the legal and practical implications of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom

Very comprehensive and very worrying;

https://ec.europa.eu/info/brexit/brexit-preparedness_en

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 17:04

Well that was a pretty pointless Cabinet marathon.
The cabinet still on cake / glue, but reaction from abroad is panning it

May’s Cabinet Backs the Brexit Plan the EU Is Poised to Reject

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/u-k-wants-to-keep-eu-rules-on-voluntary-basis-minister-says

EU Says May's Brexit Plan Won't Work as She Seeks Cabinet Deal

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-22/eu-warns-may-her-brexit-plan-won-t-fly-as-pm-gathers-ministers

It won’t work, the Commission said in a presentation published on its website

“U.K. views on regulatory issues in the future relationship including ‘three basket approach’ are not compatible with the principles in the European Council guidelines,”
one of the slides reads.
If the U.K. “aspires to cherry pick,” there’s a “risk for the integrity” of the single market, it says.

LondonMum8 · 23/02/2018 17:06

@DGRosetti "At the risk of thinking"

Please stop this thinking madness at once. Happy thoughts, sunlit uplands etc..

BiglyBadgers · 23/02/2018 17:10

Tory rebels estimate that they have got 15+ votes to force Theresa May to stay in "a" customs unions

Well, I for one felt absolutely reassured by that 10 minutes of Tory Brexit unity. Long may it be remembered.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:16

May’s Cabinet Backs the Brexit Plan the EU Is Poised to Reject

Let's translate that into Brexiteese

EU poised to reject UK cabinet plans personally approved by Theresa May.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 17:17

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/may-knows-danger-of-cabinet-split-on-brexit-still-lies-ahead

Theresa May is braced for her Cabinet to split when the European Union rejects her demands for a sweeping free trade deal,
after her senior team agreed to put off the hardest Brexit decisions until later.

Despite the Cabinet truce after months of internal division,
three senior government officials said May will face her most challenging task keeping her ministers united when - as they expect - EU leaders formally reject the British approach

One senior official said May faces five key challenges in dealing with Brexit:

The first is negotiating the deal - both with the European Commission, which will be much tougher than before, and the cabinet.
The second is planning logistics domestically in case there’s no deal, and preparing for whatever agreement follows the talks.
The third strand of work is keeping the devolved administrations such as the Scottish government on side,
while the fourth is steering complex new laws through Parliament.
The final task for May is ensuring the U.K. is able to make the most of the opportunities of Brexit

< achieving all this in 2018 ? May ? Hmm >

Theresa May Proposes Blurring Her Brexit Red Line on ECJ

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-23/theresa-may-proposes-blurring-her-brexit-red-line-on-ecj

Prime Minister Theresa May is drafting plans to sign British businesses up to a clutch of regulators that will be overseen by the European Court of Justice, Bloomberg News reports.

Two people familiar with the matter said
government documents propose placing industrial sectors such as chemicals under the jurisdiction of European regulators,
which are in turn overseen by the ECJ.

The move would be designed to help maintain the best possible access to the EU single market after Brexit.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:26

Theresa May Proposes Blurring Her Brexit Red Line on ECJ

So it wasn't really a red line ? More a fawn smudge ? Or "fudge", really.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:27

Hard to resist the childish temptation to post the Bloomberg story in teh Brexit Arms with a smiley icon.

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 17:31

Rise above it, DG

Motheroffourdragons · 23/02/2018 17:32

This reply has been withdrawn

This has been withdrawn by MNHQ on behalf of the poster.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:33

Rise above it, DG

Oh, there's an adage about dishes best served cold ...

BigChocFrenzy · 23/02/2018 17:35

It would also be naughty to post that although E27 immigration has dropped significantly, non-EU immigration has soared to net 200,000 last year.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 23/02/2018 17:42

Remainiacs Podcast
@RemainiacsCast
Splendid comment on The Times this morning, spotted by friend of the show Mark Wood: "With non EU immigration now being twice that of EU immigration will Brexiters want another referendum to leave 'the World' as well as the EU?"

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:42

It would also be naughty to post that although E27 immigration has dropped significantly, non-EU immigration has soared to net 200,000 last year.

Not really. The increased non-EU immigration is an unabashed Brexit success story. It's what every Brexiteer who said "I'm not a racist" secretly - and not so secretly - wanted. I appreciate that it's mostly students, not the doctors, engineers, nurses and surgeons we could use. But with a few years in the UK, earning as they study, they should be ready for 2025-2030 ?

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:42

"With non EU immigration now being twice that of EU immigration will Brexiters want another referendum to leave 'the World' as well as the EU?"

It was never about immigration ...

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 17:57

I see a thread about Momentum has just popped up on AIBU.

I make it about 45 seconds too late. Probably slow broadband in Russia this time of day ? Kids all get back from school (and the US is starting the school day on the west coast ...)

Peregrina · 23/02/2018 17:58

How is it that a German company can do trade deals with China? I thought that was why we had to Leave the EU.Grin

Since I live near Oxford, it's no surprise that I know people who work at the BMW plant. What I imagine is that they will continue until the present models are obsolete but think carefully before re-tooling for new ones.

DGRossetti · 23/02/2018 18:00

How is it that a German company can do trade deals with China? I thought that was why we had to Leave the EU

Really, the Brexit Arms, or Leavers Lagoon should answer that ?

SwedishEdith · 23/02/2018 18:19

Interesting Twitter thread earlier. Sorry, it starts with Roger Helmer (I know).

Roger Helmer

In New Zealand for a couple of days, I am struck again by the disgraceful way in which we cut off NZ agriculture at the knees in 1973, when we joined the EEC. It was a disgrace. No one offered NZ a “transition period”.

Michael Merrifield
‏***@ProfMike*_M

Your blind faith in an impossible future is matched by your profound ignorance of the past. There was exactly such a transitional arrangement, the Luxembourg agreement.

Tracy C
‏*@TracyCollins13*

I don't think New Zealanders see it quite that way. Mr Helmer sums up the feelings here very well.
The UK ditched us and we suffered a tonne. The country spiralled into debt and as a result, some very, very bad things happened in the 1980s.

Michael Merrifield
‏***@ProfMike*_M

It’s not a matter of debate — he is factually incorrect when he asserts that there were no transitional arrangements for New Zealand.

Michael Merrifield
‏***@ProfMike*_M

But I have to agree with your analysis that ditching long-standing close trading arrangements with your major export partner is likely to lead to serious economic hardship.

Mark S Maquisard 🇪🇺
‏*@FanaticRealist*

Here's a useful guide to the reality of the various trials and tribulations of the New Zealand economy in terms of its standing on stage of world trade. teara.govt.nz/en/overseas-trade-policy … ▶️

The authors are John Yeabsley (Senior Fellow, New Zealand Institute for Economic Research) and Chris Nixon (Senior Economist, New Zealand Institute for Economic Research). ▶️

Page 4 puts Helmer's quite ludicrous claims into context: NZ was hardly "cut off at the knees"; there was 12 years notice that the UK wanted to join the EEC, which is sufficient notice to reconfigure an economy and 6x the A50 withdrawal period… ▶️

… which, by the way, Helmer and his fellow UKIP goons says is far too long given they wanted the UK to simply cut itself off at the knees and leave the UK by the middle of 2017 without any negotiation. ▶️

Here's an interesting graphic from within the article displaying NZ's export performance to the EEC. Interesting that NZ's exports to Germany, France and Netherlands all increased in the Seventies because of the Luxembourg agreement. ▶️

But I wouldn't expect a lazy inadequate like Helmer to avail himself of actual objective data when there's an opportunity to blame the EEC/EU for something rather than wondering whether there were multiple factors at work. ⏹️

James Hobbs‏
@JamesWHobbs

So even with a transitional arrangement, there was real pain? Interesting.