Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

Palermonese for you and DF.

Ed Vaizey needn't worry about his seat. Tory votes are weighed in his Wantage constituency. He was one of Cameron's chums and May gave him the boot, so he owes her nothing.

In addition, many of his constituents work for the Atomic Energy Authority and pulling out of Euratom came completely out of the blue. He certainly wasn't advised, nor were the Management of the AEA. But our Brexshit friends are still telling us it's all going to be hunky-dory.

I did a simplified comparison of Brexit with Remain:

If no-deal Brexit loses the UK 0.5% of GDP pa each year (quite optimistic)
and UK net EU contributions are 0.5% of GDP pa

then the cost of no-deal Brexit is 0.5% in year 1.1% in year 2, 1.5% in year 3 … 8% by year 15.

i.e. the ANNUAL loss from a no-deal Brexit by year 15 would be 16 times higher than the EU contributions would have been with Remain

ERG - dimmer than DD ?

http://uk.businessinsider.com/conservative-mps-brexit-war-transition-policy-remainers-2018-2

Conservative Brexiteer Andrew Bridgen:
< VERY dim >

"It isn't complicated is it?
It's the most straightforward trade deal you could ever do.
The free trade deal we could do with the European Union will be the most straightforward ever in history.
We've got full regulatory equivalence.
It's just a matter of what you want tariffs on.
It could be done in an afternoon." < but even DD knows that's nonsense now ! >

Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
MP on looming customs union showdown: "I fear we're heading for general election territory again, I can't see how else she'll get this through."

Hope everything works itself out Red

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Whilst war Cabinet thrash things out at Chequers - intriguing parliamentary developments - where Soubry tabled slightly different amendment to the Trade Bill on “a Customs Union” - difference here is that Opposition likely to be able to support this one, especially so by Monday
... am told that the Brexiter letter may have backfired in the party and that more middle ground Conservative MPs now willing to assert themselves - they turned up, spoke supportively at the @sandbach No Deal/efta debate
Told the PPSs (lowest rung of government) who signed up to the ERG letter were summoned to the deputy chief whip and told off...
All of which means Labour Remainer sources irrespective of what’s being discussed at Chequers are now increasingly confident of continuing customs union membership “now a 60-70% chance”, because there are now the numbers...

The reason we have such high standards in beef is because of the BSE. We had to work really hard to raise standards and build up a good reputation for our beef. I would hate to see that thrown away.

Indeed, SusanWalker.

Ironically, I can't donate blood even now in the US because I lived in Ireland during the 80s. This is how bad the BSE thing was.

Red

Same here, math I couldn't donate blood in Germany
I did several contracts from late 1980s and I could donate at first - rare blood type they welcomed - then suddenly no more
(I think I'm now over the age limit at 61, anyway)

Bridgen is indeed a bear of very little brain

ERG, eh ?

Paper tiger ?

Remember how the BSE crisis bubbled away and then suddenly, public confidence collapsed?

I remember it vividly
Labour's position "evolving" apparently 🤔

So many speeches to look forward to!

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Cabinet leaving bang on ten - number ten confirms PM will make big speech next week

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
One of those at tonight's meeting says the PM 'played a blinder' and has persuaded Brexiteers to change their mind, giving her opening pitch to Brussels pending Cabinet approval on Tuesday

Urgh, I think blinder just means more kicking it into the long grass. This is still cake and eating it no?

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Another minister tells me, 'it's a breakthrough of unity for now' with agreement on 'ambitious managed divergence' - everyone said to have left happy, which implies baby steps forwards not a huge breakthrough
Another source says 'divergence has won' - the proposal will mean mutual recognition on goods, a declaration that UK will maintain standards but with the right to diverge - lots of snippets coming out so blog coming soon
But broadly if you can't wait that long.. ... Cabinet Committee has more or less agreed that UK wants to stick to EU standards and rules but on our own terms

"Ambitious managed divergence ?"

The govt seem to be agreeing a
Semi Harmonised International Trade deal

Yes, that acronym suits

May the force be with you ?

May, the farce, is with you instead !

This is just running down the clock until we walk away with no deal, surely. If we're suggesting acronyms, can we call the conservatives Tory Wanky Absolute Tossers?

By election results:

Britain Elects
@britainelects

Minehead South (West Somerset) result:

LDEM: 43.2% (+43.2)
CON: 39.8% (+3.2)
LAB: 17.1% (-1.3)

No Ind (-28.1) and Grn (-16.9) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN Minehead South (West Somerset) from Independent.

And

Trevethin (Torfaen) result:

LAB: 50.9% (+12.8)
IND (Parker): 30.8% (+30.8)
IND (Wildgust): 15.1% (+15.1)
GRN: 3.3% (+3.3)

Labour HOLD.
No other Ind(s) (-61.9) as prev.

And

Old Leake & Wrangle (Boston) result:

CON: 74.2% (+21.3)
LAB: 17.0% (+17.0)
UKIP: 6.9% (-40.1)
BREV: 1.8% (+1.8)

Conservative HOLD.
Chgs. w/ 2015

Brev: "Blue Revolution".

Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughes (North Kesteven) result:

CON: 57.8% GAIN from IND.
LIND: 35.6%
LDEM: 6.6%

Previously uncontested.

7 more results to be announced

Sounds like another semantic fudge to me. Wonder how it'll go down with the EU.