Westministenders: Groundhog Day

[RedToothBrush]

Groundhog day is 2nd Feb.

Its also today. And yesterday. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before. And the day before.

We have all turned into Bill Murray.

That's Brexit in the UK.

The only progress seems to be linguistic gymnastics not policy.

No action has been implemented, we are still on words going nowhere.

Tick tock, tick tock.

So, unless there is a deal on this very soon, passengers who book far in advance will start to notice that they can't.

I'm not a lawyer - certainly not a commercial lawyer of the calibre that would be needed here. But isn't that what "force majeure" clauses are meant to cover ?

The interesting bit is whether a flight not going because of Brexit can be considered "force majeure" if the "government du jour" had 24 months to mitigate/alleviate and didn't. My guess is the insurers might pass that bill back up.

Another scenario is a change to T&Cs to exclude any liability for losses arising from being unable to fly due to the prevailing wind situation.

Best wishes RTB

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43154308

The number of EU citizens leaving the UK is at its highest level for a decade, figures from the Office for National Statistics show

It estimates that 130,000 EU nationals emigrated in the year to September, the highest number since 2008.

Meanwhile, 220,000 EU nationals came to live in the UK - 47,000 fewer than the previous year.

Net EU migration - the difference between arrivals and departures - was 90,000, the lowest for five years.

The figures also show that more British people are emigrating than are returning to live in the UK.

Of those EU nationals arriving in the UK, fewer were coming for "work-related reasons", in particular to "look for work".

Nicola White, head of international migration statistics at the ONS, said: "Brexit could well be a factor in people's decision to move to or from the UK, but people's decision to migrate is complicated and can be influenced by lots of different reasons."

By contrast, immigration from countries outside the European Union is going up which means the UK population is continuing to grow at a similar level to early 2014.

Some 285,000 non-EU citizens arrived in the UK in the 12-month period to September, and 80,000 departed.

This gives a net increase of 205,000, the highest for six years.

(contd).

I deliberately cut it there, so as to leave the bit that will really wind up the Brexiteers last in the mouth.

I look forward to all the Brexit Arms Brigade telling us how happy they are that we have swapped EU immigrants for non-EU immigrants. After all, I have a vague recollection that's what they wanted all along.

Sorry to hear that, red Best wishes

From what I recall, force majeure can only be used for unforeseen and major events outwith any reasonable control. Now Brexit definitely comes into the category of a "major event" but it fails on the test of "unforeseen" except for Brexiter snowflakes who assumed a land of milk and honey and everlasting cake

Take care red 💐

DG Interesting that non-EU immigration has increased, to net 200,000 p.a.

If the Brexit Arms crowd voted because they wanted this, they must be happy with this Brexit bonus

• a vote of confidence in Brexit Britain from the developing countries they love

Best wishes red

Strangely I was reading about aviation whilst watching some winter Olympic coverage. They were talking about the costs of flying people about to competitions/decent training locations. Couldn't help but think that's going to get a lot worse soon.

Sorry to hear that red

Can't get behind the paywall

Sam Coates Times‏Verified account
@SamCoatesTimes
Exc: Theresa May abandons votes on Customs and Trade Bills next month because she fears defeats jeopardise her fragile customs union stance. Now maybe delayed til May

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/8ea60798-175c-11e8-9d2e-0477b9927049

Sam Coates TimesVerified account
@SamCoatesTimes
I think it’s hard to overstate the significance of this - Theresa May is delaying all problematic votes for months because she fears she does not have the Commons on her side on customs.

If the Brexit Arms crowd voted because they wanted this

We know they didn't ... or the 80% that say they did didn't. Same way that PIP wasn't meant to reduce the benefits bill, except when it was reviewed for effectiveness, the metric was the reduction in claims.

I've seen the Brexit Arms Crowd in the flesh. They queued out of the door to see a "Cameron Direct" as DS school in 2009. In a room of about 100 people, every single question was about immigrants "coming over here". Poor DC was genuinely flustered (it's the one DC which didn't get put on the Tory Party website).

Finally he managed to ask if anyone had any questions about the NHS ... someone put their hand up ...

Mr. Cameron. I am an anaesthetist at the . I was recruited from South Africa because there is a skills shortage for what I can do. Now I hear all this talk about immigrants having to go home, I wonder if I'm welcome here, or should move back to South Africa

This person was black and Cameron got even more flustered.

Maybe we need a Day of the Triffids type event that makes us all blind. I suspect skin colour will be the last thing we worry about when getting help ?

I think it’s hard to overstate the significance of this - Theresa May is delaying all problematic votes for months because she fears she does not have the Commons on her side on customs.

Not really "news" though, is it ? People on this thread have been calling it for ages.

Everything is being put off, put off and put off.

It's like a very high stakes game of poker with each side raising the other. It's hard not to picture that scene from the Harryhausen movies where the Gods are playing with the mortals over a gaming board.

By contrast, immigration from countries outside the European Union is going up which means the UK population is continuing to grow at a similar level to early 2014.

But some Brexiters will be delighted because they keep assuring us that the EU is a white person's club. Others will be furious.

Mr. Cameron. I am an anaesthetist at the . I was recruited from South Africa because there is a skills shortage for what I can do. Now I hear all this talk about immigrants having to go home, I wonder if I'm welcome here, or should move back to South Africa

I cannot help but think that instead of immigrants coming here and stopping people getting GP and hospital appointments as the Brexiters whine about, it's much more likely to be the opposite, that the only places those very white communities will meet a black or brown person will be in their local hospital, or increasingly in their GPs surgery.

I am gobsmacked that the MSM hasn't made more comment about the fact that May is only having a Cabinet meeting today to agree its Brexit strategy - over 19 months after she took over as PM and nearly 11 months after she invoked Article 50

pretty The MSM is doing the 3 monkeys over any negative story, i.e. most facts

I am gobsmacked that the MSM hasn't made more comment about the fact that May is only having a Cabinet meeting today to agree its Brexit strategy - over 19 months after she took over as PM

To be honest what can you say ? Brexiteers hate any truth, so they would just shout "fake news". Leavers know the truth, so it's not news. And the rest of the world will continue as before having learned that it's no use expecting clarity anymore, so best to prepare to jettison the UK.

pain The background behind the paywalled Times story is here:

http://www.politico.eu/article/customs-vote-headache-for-tories/

Ministers believe MPs could defeat the government in a crunch House of Commons vote expected in the coming weeks, designed to force the U.K. to join a customs union with the EU after Brexit.

Amendments to two upcoming pieces of Brexit legislation

• one aimed at keeping the U.K. in the EU customs union, and the other aimed at binding May to negotiating a new customs union with the EU -

have become the government’s biggest short-term domestic concern,
one minister said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The second of the two amendments,
attached to the government’s upcoming Trade Bill and backed by Conservative Brexit rebels Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke,
is of most concern,
as its support for “a” rather than “the” customs union is in line with the Labour party’s emerging position on the issue.

A number of Labour shadow cabinet members have in recent days reiterated the party’s support for a customs union,
arguing the arrangement could help solve the problem of avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

True - I should learn to lower my expectations

I'll just go back to hoping that Scotland can (eventually) escape this clusterfuck.

But I can't stop feeling for all the people whose lives and prospects will be damaged in the process. Even if I do think "Hell mend 'em" about those that voted for - and continue to support - Brexit. The rich ones will be ok - and will probably manage to make money out of it. The poor and vulnerable (and even the not-so-poor ) are fucked

Yes, wealth enables one to float over economic changes that devastate the plebs.

This is an old story, but very relevant now, as hedge-funders and vulture capitalists plan to make new fortunes from a Brexit recession or (they hope) even a crash

It demonstrates why most hedge-funders HATE the EU:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-25845291

*The UK government's attempt to limit the extent of European Union power to ban certain financial practices has failed in the courts.
*
In 2012, the EU passed a law giving it the power to ban short-selling

• betting on whether shares or other securities will fall in price -

in emergency situations

The UK challenged the law as a restraint of trade on the City, but the EU's highest court rejected the case.
Britain will not be able to opt out.

EU authorities believe short-selling contributed to financial instability during the region's debt crisis by increasing the volatility of stocks.

< interesting that even under Cameron, the Toty govt opposed these safeguards >

Toty govt

must be typo of the thread . Looks a little like "Totey" which given the gambling nature of hedge trading is strangely appropriate.

Thanks bigchoc

pretty I am astounded too. I don’t think the news should be reported on the basis of whether brexiteers will accept it or if it’ll have any impact on leavers. It’s a shocking dereliction of duty and it should be shouted about.

It is important to realise that hedge-funders can make massive profits whether Brexit causes a boom or a crash

• but it is easier to manipulate politicians into causing a crash - which just needs them to be lazy and stupid rather than a boom, which requires great planning and may stilkl not hapopoen

Chaos is the likely default of any complex system that is not well managed
and the multi-variate interacting trading systems of the #5 / #6 economy is one of the most complex you can find

DG "totty" govt too, in light of continuing scandals
My autocorrect still tries "Gories" too

Best wishes to you red