Westministenders: KAAAAABBBOOOOOOOOMMMMM

[RedToothBrush]

'Quick' Recap.

Once upon a time, despite warnings to the contrary after previously attempting to recreate a speech from the 1930s, Theresa May triggered a50.

A series of events, which included a disastrous unnecessary General Election and losing seats, ensured that we have Brexit by Timetable in which every piece of goodwill was burnt up a long time ago, and the EU decided to go "see ya then".

Only this General Election, made this politically impossible as well as practically impossible, given how this would destroy our economy.

So May did the only thing she could and agreed to lock us in with sufficient progress deal, which is legally binding, if no deal is agreed. Thus giving us in essence a choice between staying in the Single Market and Customs Union due to NI or breaking an international agreement which would destroy all our international credibility and trust.

Except none of the Brexiteers really grasped what was happening. Until this week.

In the meantime we still have had spectacles of Nadine Dorries asking on the infamous WhatsApp Group why we can't stay in the CU. Any Davis saying that he has now apparently 'changed his mind' on the matter. Not that Labour are any better, with Corbyn saying we can't stay in the Single Market and leave the EU. Except of course, Norway is in the Single Market...

Fast forward through a sex scandal that's swept through Westminster, installing self appointing the vampiric Gavin Williamson as Defence Secretary, we eventually ended up with a reshuffle which was possibly as pointless and as successful as the General Election. And Gavin Williamson is caught up in a sex scandal.

May has managed to drag the Great Repel Bill through the Commons, without breaking the party, but with much back room dealing and compromise with Remainers. Hailed as something of a victory by Brexiteers, this rather is a fools paradise. At what price to their ideological purity did this come? Is there much Brexit left? And there is much more to come in the Lords, with the LDs committed to working with Labour on securing at least 10 amendments. The two parties have a majority in the Lords if they work together.

Away from parliament we have had the glorious demise of Toby Young, who is forever to be remembered for eugenics.

As it has become apparent that we are increasingly looking like we are on track for BINO, the EU have told us, that we should have sucked up a compromise proposal earlier and now the Norway Option is off the table as we fucked that up by taking too long to disagree amongst ourselves and being arses to EU citz. I paraphrase slightly here, but that's about he long and short of it. Instead we get the pleasure of 21 months of the EU interfering in our law without representation. And we are already locked into this. Now Leavers can moan about this, and shock horror, actually be correct about it too! Transition will be up to 31st Dec 2020 at the latest. Which realistically is still too soon, not that any lying arsed Brexiteer is willing to admit to this. Yet.

The only way to get out of this proposal for better terms? Either beg the EU for something there is no way they will give us or revoke / extend a50.

The fall out from May's reshuffle is still going on in slow motion. Rees-Mogg has got a bigger platform to spout shit he knows nothing about, admit that he has never changed a nappy nor wiped his own arse, thinks women should give birth to football teams, and how he has never visited IKEA and has no plans to do so. Johnson has tried to build bridges. And effed that one up again. Gove has made us all be obsessed by plastic straws and turn into environmental maniacs because no other minister is good at press releases and media stunts. Arch Remainac Liddington, got Deputy PM and took over Brexshit even more from DExEU. Hunt is in no way after becoming PM and Greening is really pissed and when straight back to lead from the Naughty Step.

To cut the long story short: they all hate May and think she's shit

There are thought to be nearly 48 letters to trigger a leadership election in Graham Brady's hands. But not quite. And its not about the letters its about needing 159 MPs to no confidence her... but that is starting to sound more and more plausible in the face of Brexshit hitting the fan.

We now have a leaked impact assessment that we really were not supposed to see which is slightly less worse than Project Fear. But not by much. Its supposed to be by DExEU. Its been suggested that its actually by alt-DExEU aka the Cabinet Department (Robbins and Liddington).

Anyway, nothing is decided. May might zombie on forever. She won't, she's in a crowded field of Tories with stakes. But that sub-committee meeting on Wed 7th Feb is crunch time for something or someone.

Tick tock, tick tock, went the Brexit Clock.

Oh yeah and there's going to be a trade war between the US and EU. And there's some stuff about a ex-Belize diplomat. And Trump's coming to visit us.

I saw that BigChoc.
I also remember that NI is refusing to have a different ‘status’ than the rest of the UK and wants to be treated the same.
Does it mean that the U.K. will have to stay in thensingle market??

I had noticed that the issue wth NI had been ‘forgotten about’ in the last few weeks to be replaced again with all the non sense about trade deals etc...

And also
www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-trade-deals-lost-eu-liam-fox-caroline-lucas-theresa-may-latest-a8201596.html

Seems that even actual trade deals aren’t so secure after all.

The penny just dropped with the NI position for my DD (10).

She says she's sick of it all now. She says counties of the U.K. that want to stay should stay, and those that want to quit should quit! Just think of the customs implications...

Funny how despite being so spectacularly wrong less than a year ago[1] people are in thrall to the polls again ?

Funny how negative Brexit forecasts - carefully curated and explained -
are "wildly speculative", but asking a bunch of randoms in the street is the word of God ?

Funny how the huge market analysis firms fucked up every single rating prior to 2008, but the UK has had to endure 10 years of austerity to keep a good rating with them ?

These are all contradictions and hypocrisy an infant child would spot. In fact they are probably amongst the first things children start to realise is a crock - and thus begin the long dark journey into adulthood.

There used to be a bitter joke, from my CND days, about "good" nuclear fallout and "bad" nuclear fallout ... it might have inspired the "good AIDS" meme a while back.

If the rocks of Brexit smash open the ship of the Tory party then not a tear will I shed.

(That's enough metaphor - ed )

[1]YouGov excepted.

But Rosetti what's your take on the incline on the Yougov graph that I was appalled by upthread ?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/methode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2F3b3a89e4-0c58-11e8-a06a-fefa58ca1fb9.png?crop=3000%2C2000%2C0%2C0&resize=685

But Rosetti what's your take on the incline on the Yougov graph that I was appalled by upthread ?

reported incline

Fake News.

Two can play at that game.

Now look where we are

Anyway, it matters not a jot what you, I , or anyone unlikely even more goodlooking thinks. As we should have learned even before we could vote the only poll that matters is the election.

So bring it on Treez !

Speaking of YouGov:

1. When it comes to a post-Brexit trade deal, which comes closest to what you would like to happen?

Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union 49%

There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world 13%

Don't know 38%

AND

1. How confident do you feel in your understanding of what a customs union is?

Very confident 9%
Somewhat confident 30%
Not very confident 28%
Not confident at all 21%
Don't know 12%

(mind you,

1. News has emerged that the Spice Girls are set to reunite. Who is your favourite Spice Girl?

Baby Spice (Emma) 14% Ginger Spice (Geri) 8% Posh Spice (Victoria) 5% Scary Spice (Mel B) 4% Sporty Spice (Mel C) 8% Can't decide 15% Not applicable - I don't know the Spice Girls 18% Don't know 28%

The UK can't even decide on a favourite Spice Girl, let alone a multifaceted trade agreement with at least 5 distinct trading blocs, and over 100 countries.)

incline on the Yougov graph

Isn't it based on the question "If there was a GE tomorrow, which party would you vote for?"? That's the one I usually get when I do a YouGov.

And as there isn't actually a GE tomorrow, many people will probably just fall back upon existing party loyalties (which are not generally based upon actual thinking). Now, whether people might think a bit more if there actually was a GE tomorrow, is a whole other question.

Also there's a whole psychology of not changing horses in the middle of a race, or clinging to a familiar ship in a storm, cowering in the cart as it hurtles toward the cliff, and all that jazz. Never mind that it is a self-inflicted race/storm/cliff.

Re the meeting held yesterday at 10 Downing Street with the high level Japanese representatives, I'm surprised that there hasn't been more made of this bit of the Japanese ambassador's comments:

"If there is no profitability of continuing operation in [the] UK, not Japanese only , no private company can continue operations,” Mr Tsuruoka said. [my bold]

ie it's not just Japanese companies the UK should be worried might be leaving

ie it's not just Japanese companies the UK should be worried might be leaving

I suspect even swivel-eyed Brexiteers might be taken aback at the companies preparing to leave, or withdraw investment.

And for that strength of delivery from the Japanese ambassador. Time for reality in spades.

There has been so much pretence. Decisions made, choices lost. Even the avoidance of anything on NI. It is never discussed. Considering it is one of the 3 issues to be dealt with or no way jose. Chickens are going to come home to roost. There will be no future trade deal without dealing with those issues. Have cake and eat it time is coming to an end.

However, it is funny that the Cons are saying to non EU countries to pretend the UK is still an EU member during transition for trade agreement purposes. I think they should send Redwood, JR-M and ilk to deal with this. Face the reality with their propaganda.

I wonder what Greg Clark et all promised Nissan.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-george-soros-guy-verhofstadt-nick-timothy-theresa-may-russia-antisemitic-jewish-secret-plot-a8200756.html

He added that he did not believe Mr Timothy had an “antisemitic bone in his body” but that “language matters so much”.

Believe a person when they tell you who they are. Is everyone being radicalised? New normal.

Any nerds about ?

Anyone been following the ICANN/GDPR car-crash ?

It's weirdly analogous to Brexit ... only it has to be sorted by May 25th 2018.

Incoming European privacy laws which carry a global impact for anyone doing business in the Union are continuing to cause an epic policy meltdown at internet overseer ICANN.

This week the European Commission responded [PDF] to the US-based organization's latest efforts to resolve a stark conflict between the domain name system's Whois service and the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), that will come into force this May.

It was not impressed.

"Given the level of abstraction of the models, it is difficult to assess the scope and impacts of the proposed approaches," wrote the EC's director-general of technology and communications, Roberto Viola.

"The Commission therefore encourages ICANN to further develop possible options in cooperation with the community in order to balance the various legal requirements, needs and interests."

Which is a nice way of saying: That's it? This is what you've been working on?

The current Whois system publishes the name, address and telephone number of everyone that registers internet address; a system that is illegal under GDPR because it doesn't seek people's consent before sharing their personal details. Some companies offer to hide your details for an extra fee but that doesn't cut it either under GDPR rules.

ICANN has done its best to ignore that fact for a number of years, relying on the fact it is a US corporation and that the American government is strongly supportive of the Whois system.

But then the companies that fund the organization started explaining that it was a real problem. Many have their headquarters or subsidiaries in Europe and GDPR imposes fines of up to €20 million or 4 per cent of turnover, whichever is larger, if companies are not in compliance.

(contd).

GDPR is going to be a bloodbath in the UK ... firms have got complacent with the wrist-slap behaviour of ICO, they will squeal when the winding up orders start flowing. Notice that fine ...

The reality isn't getting through

The fact that the implication - no, the explicit statement - of the consequence to investment and production in the UK wasn't picked up on and neither challenged nor discussed by neither politicians nor MSM means that rational discussion of consequences - let alone forecasts - is impossible

NotReady Neither the DUP, nor the Tory Party, can agree with what they want for NI, or for the UK.
Other than unicorn cupcakes, which the EU don't accept as a serious negotiating position

The US and China will be much less polite & much more blunt than the EU in negotiations
but most Ultras & the DUP love being a US poodle and want to beg & rollover even more
Not so sure about Chinese poodledom

japanese people are famous fof being the opposite of blunt in order to 'save face'.
for them to give that strong a statement is a strong warning.

The Brexit truck is about to crash head-on into the reality wall.

My favourite bits of news this week are the legislation concerning the international driving licence and truck licensing (you might need an IDL to bring your car on the ferry to Ireland or France ... but that's nothing compared to the potential crisis facing the trucking industry, which could see tens of thousands of trucks competing for hundreds of licences), and also the fact that the govt have given up hope of renegotiating the c. 100 trade agreements to which the UK is party via the EU. So they are hoping to roll these over but, as things stand, and if I have understood correctly, the UK has to abide by these agreements during transition but there is no reciprocal obligation on the other party.

At some point very soon the government are going to start begging for an extension to A50.

The mirror group are buying the daily express. It will be interesting to see if the brexit stance of the express shifts.

Just watched last night's QT. The people of Darlington were shouting "rubbish" about the economic forecasts.

Verhofstadt criticises May's former aide Timothy for spreading far-right propaganda

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-george-soros-guy-verhofstadt-nick-timothy-theresa-may-russia-antisemitic-jewish-secret-plot-a8200756.html

“It’s sad to see far-right, Kremlin-sponsored conspiracy theories about George Soros ‘meddling’ in the internal affairs of countries now being rolled out by a mainstream UK newspaper.

“Viktor Orban and his illiberal friends, who are obsessed with demonising human rights and free speech advocates, would be proud"
…
Mr Soros’s Open Society Foundations group says Mr Orban’s Hungarian government has employed “antisemitic tropes reminiscent of the 1930s” in its attacks,
while Mr Soros himself has described them as “outright lies” and says he is used as “an outside enemy to distract citizens” from problems with the country.

Mr Timothy’s piece, meanwhile, repeated claims that Mr Soros had a hand in the downfall of Russian-backed regimes in both Georgia and Ukraine,
and that he is behind an “ultra-liberal crusade” in Hungary.

< it's interesting that he opposes those actions - yet another Putin fanboy in the Tory party ?
Also interesting if he regards Brexit as a fascist enterprise - and that he wants fascists enterprises to succeed >

Stephen Pollard, the editor of The Jewish Chronicle newspaper, was angered by claims Mr Soros is behind a “secret plot” to block Brexit.

Just watched last night's QT. The people of Darlington were shouting "rubbish" about the economic forecasts

Because the IMF, Soros, and Buffet have Darlington on speed dial ?

Misti A few lone voices, e.g. R North, have been warning since the EU ref that there are about 900 agreements of various kinds, e.g. accepting standards & facilitating trade, with non-EU countries^

• all of which would need to be rolled over or replaced. I presume the UK would prioritise arrangements with its main non-EU trading partners though, which might be 100 fwer

The EU can say it has no objection to rollover, but it has no power to force non-EU countries to do so.
The EU is probably unwilling to allocate the large resources necessary to coax each country

May might even get a shock that her bestie Trump - "The Art of the Deal" - wants added goodies, instead of just a straight rollover

100 or fewer

I suspect Darlington & most Leave supporters have been primed to rubbish all negative reports as being funded by Soros / Jewish elite

Demonisation of a Jewish elite, diverting the anger of the JAMs and left-behinds towards a particular group of the super-wealthy who are of a racial minority …
Decades ago, older family members told how the Rothschilds were similar bogeymen of the 1930 UK fascists
I had filed that mentally as historical info under "terrible, but could never happen again in Britain"

Just watched last night's QT.

One of my media feeds last week highlighted a QT audience member whose resemblance to a Conservative councillor in a ward hundreds of miles away was uncanny.

You know that facial recognition tech .....