Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Will someone rid us of this appalling PM?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/will-someone-rid-us-of-this-appalling-pm-qflt6wtfq

The inertia and dysfunction is even worse than it looks from the outside.
Although individual ministers are privately appalled, they press on regardless of their boss.

It’s like an orchestra in which the players do what they want while the conductor sits on her hands.

twitter.com/IanDunt/status/956658642811486229

New York Times ....

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told business leaders that the 2016 Brexit vote is costing Britain’s economy around 10 billion pounds a year

www.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-boe/boes-carney-sees-10-billion-pound-brexit-hit-to-uk-economy-times-idUSKBN1FE16I

Liam Fox's International Trade department is not fit to secure post-Brexit deals
Quelle Surprise

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-brexit-international-trade-department-eu-deals-dit-nao-uk-donald-trump-wilbur-ross-a8176496.html

The department charged with securing trade after Brexit is not fit for the role and has been forced to delay projects as it struggles with a skills shortage, a damning report warns today.

Liam Fox’s running of the Department for International Trade (DIT) is criticised for failing to even properly set out the “capabilities and level of capacity” it will need to deliver for British business.

The National Audit Office (NAO) also raises fears that DIT will never secure the “specific trade and negotiation skills” required, because of rapid turnover in the civil service.

struggles with a skills shortage,

My hackles rise when I hear "skills shortage". What I understand is "we can't find people to do such a complex, skilled job for peanuts". I bet they've got a surplus of executives and directors though.

Yes I thought it was a bit of a bold assertion to claim to know what the electorate meant when they voted (where have we seen that before?) but it's interesting that the Tory loss benefited the lib dems more than labour.

Yes, there is a tendency to place everything at the door of Brexit, but I think this was far more likely to be about health and social care considering the current health and education crises on the island. Lib Dems makes sense for the wider area. Hampshire is split Tory and Lib Dem. Labour barely get a sniff round here, so I would have been genuinely astounded if labour had made more gains than the Lib Dems.

struggles with a skills shortage

Surely not? How hard can it be, when Brexit must be, by the definition of its very own supporters, a success? We do have some 17 million people who are ready and willing to BeLeave, like, really hard, don't we?

Oh apparently it's the fault of the EU for tempting all the skilled negotiators onto their side
Must be hard to make Brexit look like an attractive thing to negotiate.

Brexit, was NEVER really about EU issues. It was ALWAYS about domestic issues.

This has been researched. Reasons for voting were almost exclusively based on domestic politics not eu ones.

If domestic politics are going tits up, then what's going to happen? Swings like Isle of Wight.

Brexit will accelerate that process. It will expose the structural issues already there, and push things to a point of collapse. The underlying problems remain domestic and are not going away.

Even if we get the best deal in the world, then that's not going to change those issues.

That's what is frustrating in way.

Does anyone know if some of the Lib Dems standing in Isle of Wight were any of the ex Tories who quit? That could have had some effect. Though as I don't know the answer, it's just a theory.

My hackles rise when I hear "skills shortage". What I understand is "we can't find people to do such a complex, skilled job for peanuts".

Mine, too. It angers me that companies won’t invest in training the workforce, too.

I’ve long believed that, if your job description demands e.g. a degree, you should be prepared to finance your staff to obtain one.
So many professions use a degree requirement as a means of weeding out bright and capable applicants who just couldn’t afford university.

So many professions use a degree requirement as a means of weeding out bright and capable applicants who just couldn’t afford university.

Can't speak for anyone else but I don't use academic qualifications as a sole measure of ability to do the job, and have stood by that when recruiting people.

Even less reason for the BBC to give them airtime, eh ?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757

All 17 UKIP councillors in Thurrock - including an MEP - have resigned from the party and formed a new group.

(contd).

What a pity Farage can't head them up as they've decided to stay away from national politics and just put up candidates for local elections.

www.newsweek.com/undocumented-immigrant-celebrated-helping-rebuild-after-hurricane-sandy-pleads-791708?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

Sorry, not sure what happened there - meant to post this:

Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – poll

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll?CMP=share_btn_tw

Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – poll

I would be curious to know how that figure is made up of (a) people who couldn't vote in 2016, but can now, (b) people who did vote Leave in 2016 and (c) people who could have voted in 2016, but didn't.

In a similar vein:

Labour support on rise for rethink of leaving EU, survey finds

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/labour-brexit-rethink-second-referendum-guardian-icm-poll?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Interesting question raised by Kirsty Blackman


Kirsty Blackmann*

@KirstySNP
·
25 Jan

Has the UK Government forgotten to legislate to have the power to lodge schedules of tariffs with the WTO?  will be interesting to see if they have to amend bills to include this now I’ve raised it.
If they’ve forgotten to do this, what else might they have accidentally missed?

*Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – poll

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll?CMP=share_btn_tw*

I don't see any mention of Northern Ireland in those graphics. The border obviously won't be an issue in any second referendum

Helen Catt‏Verified account
@BBCHelenCatt

Analysis by @UKLabour claims possible post-Brexit delays at #Dover could cost freight industry almost £0.5bn. @Keir_Starmer tells me staying in a customs union with the EU “should be an option” to solve concerns

Keir Starmer
‏**@Keir**_Starmer

Very concerned about impact of Brexit in Dover. Spent yesterday at the port talking it through with key staff, trade unions & authorities.

Drip, drip, drip from Starmer.

Right. Let’s do those Central Wight votes properly.

2017: Con - 1026. Grn- 258. Lab: 81 (total 1365).
2018: Con - 547. LD -286. Grn- 143. Lab: 101. UKIP: 24 (total 1101)

You can spin pretty much any story you want out of those results (and that’s before you take into account local issues that might impact strongly on specific wards).

What you cannot do is compare percentages when candidates from certain parties did not stand in one of the elections, as you’re comparing oranges with apricots. Beyond the Tories losing appeal, there is literally nothing you can read into this result and it depresses the fuck out of me that intelligent and highly politically aware people seem to think that you can.

I don't see any mention of Northern Ireland in those graphics.

I wondered that - I guess the survey of 5000 people just didn't include NI...but then, surely the margin is greater than 51:49 in reality?
Also - Gibraltar would tip the scale further as well.

Interesting to see that it was only the Midlands and Wales that are pro Brexit now (though barely) - the North has swung considerably.

“Did not explicitly deny” is probably more accurate than “suggests” perhaps but:

Theresa May suggests UK health services could be part of US trade deal

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-donald-trump-nhs-us-trade-deal-brexit-torture-a7548156.html