Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Does The Guardian poll question on a referendum on the final deal state whether voting against the deal would mean we would end up with no deal ? I am never quite sure what asking for a referendum on the final deal would result in if the deal was rejected.

Does The Guardian poll question on a referendum on the final deal state whether voting against the deal would mean we would end up with no deal ? I am never quite sure what asking for a referendum on the final deal would result in if the deal was rejected. confused

I think they just asked about attitudes to having a 2nd referendum at all, rather than looking at what questions should be asked in such a referendum.

“At least the stage set didn’t fall down”.

That was because Tory central office had nothing to do with the stage itself. Not at Davos

Pity noone did something about the speech
Unfortunately, noone could force many important people to actually stay and listen to her
So nothing really would have helped

"Theresa May suggests UK health services could be part of US trade deal"

Now if Boris was genuinely concerned about the NHS, he would be publicly going ballistic about this

Other Brexiters & Labour Leavers too
Where's Kate Hoey and Frank Field ?

www.thesun.co.uk/news/5434170/andy-wigmore-brexit-campaign-nigel-farage-police-diplomat/amp/amp?__twitter_impression=true
EU'RE NICKED Brexit campaign boss is stopped by police for pretending to be a diplomat
Andy Wigmore admitted he was using expired diplomatic plates on his car

A BREXIT campaign chief has been nicked for masquerading as a diplomat on Foreign Office orders.

Leave.EU’s communications director Andy Wigmore was pulled over by cops in his car for using illegal diplomatic plates as well as an expired diplomatic ID card.

The officers also suspected he was driving without insurance when he was detained on the A3 on January 19 last week.

Mr Wigmore is a key ally of Nigel Farage and one of the self-declared four “Bad Boys of Brexit”.

Wigmore was snapped with Farage when the former UKIP leader became the first British politician to meet Donald Trump after he was elected president in 2016.

The prominent campaigner, who has dual nationality with Belize, held diplomatic status for the tiny central American country until it was revoked a year ago

But Mr Wigmore kept up the pretence, angering the Belizean High Commission in London who asked FCO chiefs to enforce action to halt him.

The police patrol who spotted Mr Wigmore seized his diplomatic plates and ID card on the spot.

The arrest is a big embarrassment for Mr Wigmore and his boss, the multi-millionaire hard Brexit advocate Arron Banks.

It is a criminal offence to impersonate a diplomat, but Mr Wigmore insists he won’t be prosecuted.

After a long roadside row, he also insists he was able to prove he was insured to drive.

Confronted by The Sun, Mr Wigmore admitted last night: “It’s very embarrassing, but it was all just an administrative error.

When you get your diplomatic status revoked I'm pretty sure you know about it, so saying its an administrative mistake is pushing it. Especially when you are clearly doing still parading around like a diplomat to the point that your government is so pissed off that they contact FCO leading to the police involved.

My tin foil hat is bleeping and thinks that this was more than a gentle reminder about his diplomatic plates, in a 'we know what shit you are up to' kind of way.

I see Corbyn and Farron have both raised questions about the NHS and any US trade deal.

If Labour have been too afraid of the political fallout to speak out much on Brexit, at least they should be hammering the Tories now on this issue.
Hardly any Lexiters or RedKippers would accept the US getting in (more) to the NHS
Many Leavers really did think Brexit would help the NHS, so they would be outraged at this - if Labour publicises the issue clearly.

Noone except hardcore Tories would believe May's assurances about US giants not damaging the NHS

Hey outsourcing to Carillon has gone so well we'll outsource to the US. What could possibly go wrong.

Banks, Wigmore and co seem to think the referendum result means they can get away with anything
High time they were shown they can't

Thanks Hasenstein

Incidentally why WAS Wigmore's diplomatic status revoked?

And exactly when...

Chris Kendall 🇪🇺‏
@ottocrat

I’m claiming this scalp. Wigmore’s diplomatic accreditation was removed only after I alerted my MP, Dominic Grieve, to the glaring breach of the Vienna Convention and he wrote to the FCO seeking an explanation. Should have been caught far earlier.Chris Kendall 🇪🇺 added,

Surreal times …
There is a Moggy Facebook "Appreciation Group" ??

www.facebook.com/TJRMAG/

“Jacob Rees-Mogg Appreciation Group: For those who admire the most honourable gentleman of Parliament.” 🤦🏻‍♀️🤷‍♀️

Was this started by his nanny ?

Former Irish PM Bertie Ahern:

"David Davis is a very interesting character but I watched him yesterday.
I continue to have my doubts - does he understand this stuff?

Dear Bertie - Where is the doubt ?
DD understands nothing and does ditto,

Almost the whole world can see how useless DD is

• almost, that is, except in the Uk, where he is still the SAS hero who will crash through the EU door, smash the furrin and shove a Union Jack up a unicorn's arse.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

Around the world, every major economy is now growing in a synchronized wave of expansion
that has finally put the finish on a wrenching global downturn that began a decade ago.

“It is the best moment in the global economy since the ’50s,”
said Kenneth Rogoff, an international economist at Harvard University.

< i.e. global recovery - at last ! - from the 2008 financial crash
but will the UK join this >

Britain stands out as one of the weaker performers.

Its economy probably expanded by just 1.7 percent last year and
is expected to grow by only 1.5 percent this year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
< so the UK, which was so hard hit, misses out on a full recovery - thanks, Leavers ! >

Peter Foster
‏Verified account

Two EU sources say UK discreetly asked about extending #Brexit transition beyond Dec 31 2020. The EU said 'no'.
The UK government categorically denies this exchange ever happened. My latest.
And some brief observations. /1

The EU offer of transition to Dec 31 2020 is plainly inadequate - just 21 months. The date is picked because it is the end of their budget cycle. Both sides know this. /2

The UK position - per Mrs May in Florence - is "about two years"
If the UK wanted transition to Dec 31 2021, that would be two years, nine months. Also inadequate. /3

As we report official govt policy remains "about two years", tho David Davis was notably silent on the timeline during his speech today. But it will be "time-limited" - meaning defined. /4

Last night Hammond/Davis/Clark sent letters to business leaders in which they said of the transition/implementation period:
“The period’s duration will be strictly time-limited, and should be determined simply by how long it will take to make these
changes.” /5

‏The problem here is that the politics precludes honesty - when any sane person without a dog in the fight knows that a "smooth" Brexit will take time.. As @CER_Grant notes here. /6

Arguably, the 'harder' the Brexit, the longer the transition will need to be.
The hard Brexiteers should indeed worry if the government was really capable of delivering Brexit in 21 months - in which case the changes will be 'modest' indeed. /7

The EU side also knows this - which is why 15 member states this week requested a provision be left to revisit the Dec 31 2020 deadline at a later date, if necessary. /8

And it will surely be necessary if the UK is leaving the/a customs union.
Recall that at the point of Brexit in Mar 2019 we may only have broad terms of a future trade deal. Negotiations don't start til April 1 2019.
/9

Even if you started now - hiring customs officers, bulldozing parts of Kent to make inspection bays, writing the computer code, giving companies time to work out VAT forms and Rules of Origin questions, standing up regulatory agencies - we'll be nowhere close to being ready. /10

Whatever your views on Brexit, no-one wants chaos, and surely not the hard Brexiteers, or they will risk losing public good will for the project very quickly indeed.
They should by lobbying for slow and steady, not quick and chaotic in my view. /11

Everyone knows this. And yet no-one is allowed to say it - for fear of causing complete panic.
Without greater honesty on all sides - on transition, trade-offs etc- I fear Brexit will go bang. 12/ENDS

An ex-Telegraph journalist analysing how the paper has sunk

and saw a surprising Catholic connection in Brexiters who were so against an EU … that e.g. the DUP thinks is too Catholic

http://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/tim-walker-daily-telegraph-1-5330345
…
This elite tends, by contrast, to be fast-tracked on to national papers from Oxbridge and led to believe from an early age that their views matter and must be taken seriously.

The smart ones twig soon enough that moderate views get them absolutely nowhere – certainly never on to Question Time.

They twig, too, that in journalism, unlike politics, they need never have to take responsibility for their rhetoric.
< no responsibility in politics either, atm >
…
It was a peculiarity of the Telegraph’s embryonic Brexiteers that they were almost all of them Catholics,
as was Tony Gallagher, the paper’s editor (now in charge of the pro-Brexit Sun),
and the proprietors, Sir David and Sir Frederick Barclay.
…
Johnson was, perhaps typically, born and baptised a Catholic, but subsequently switched to Anglicanism.

I don’t say that it is an established tenet of the Catholic faith to hate the European Union
– the very civilised Lord Deben is, for instance, a devout Remainer as well as a devout Catholic, and the Pope, of course, resides on mainland Europe –

but I do say on this particular paper,
in the days when Johnson, Hannan and Odone and their friends worked for it,
it was a strong and binding influence in the anti-EU camp.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/25/uk-too-slow-in-making-its-brexit-demands-for-trade-say-eu-diplomats

The UK’s record of presenting its demands “at five past midnight” during the Brexit negotiations is developing into a major problem,
senior EU diplomats have said, with frustrations now emerging over London’s lethargy over the transition period.

A current cause of concern is Downing Street’s failure as yet to formally seek the EU’s help in keeping Britain in the bloc’s 65 free-trade agreements with non-EU nations around the world,
despite fears in Brussels that the process will be fraught with difficulties.

The UK has said it wants to continue to enjoy the trading rights and economic advantages it has today courtesy of the EU’s agreements with countries such as South Korea, Canada and Singapore.
The Department of International Trade has said it has had fruitful talks with a host of non-EU countries on the issue.
Yet one senior EU diplomat said on Thursday that the UK was yet to formally request Brussels authorisation or assistance in “rolling over” Brussels deals with the rest of the world.

There are concerns that negotiations with non-EU countries could become complicated, with just 13 months before the deadline to complete them.

“So far the UK has not demanded roll-over of these agreements,” the diplomat said.
“If there is such a request then third countries will have to say what they think about this request.”
< WTF is the govt DOING ??
Any transition period is pointless without this rollover of trade treaties with other countries>

Greg Hands is talking through his arse.

Hammond to business group at Davos:

“It was a walk in the mountain air that inspired the prime minister to call a general election, so I am discouraging her from taking any strolls”

Hammond on Boris Johnson:

"As we came into Davos, there was an avalanche warning yet the foreign secretary isn’t even here."

Crikey, Spreadsheet Phil is a comic
(As distinct from Brexit pols, who just read comics)

and saw a surprising Catholic connection in Brexiters who were so against an EU … that e.g. the DUP thinks is too Catholic

The shadow of the Reformation ? Showing how much of "now" comes from an historic "there", and why an appreciation - if not encyclopaedic knowledge - of history is essential to making sense of current events.

I think it would be interesting to examine what makes a person switch sides (to Anglicanism).

I also presume, perhaps mistakenly, that the people named in the interesting article Bigchoc posted were upper crusty enough in their own way, but never quite insiders, if RC.

www.wandsworthguardian.co.uk/news/national/15897511.Bertie_Ahern____has_doubts____over_David_Davis___s_understanding_of_Brexit/

A decent synopsis of a longer article I saw elsewhere but can't track down.

Ahern thinks the Schrödinger's border deal is a fudge and will be very hard to cement into legal terminology.