Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

But frontrunners never won Tory leadership elections, do they?

This is off-topic, sorry, but I found this article very interesting on how the Dutch intelligence agency infiltrated a Russian hacking network (who were trying to influence the US presidential election). It's from a Dutch newspaper, but in English:
www.volkskrant.nl/tech/dutch-agencies-provide-crucial-intel-about-russia-s-interference-in-us-elections~a4561913/

Hammond should have added 'Because we still want to have our cake and eat it'. We still want full access to the single market and benefits of the Customs Union, but we don't want Freedom of Movement, to abide by ECJ rulings and we don't want to pay.

Frumpety , I suspect part of the reason why the Gropers Gala is no longer acceptable is the fact that Donald Trump is now president.

This (sorry excuse for a) man would have been right at home at that event. He is rich white male arrogance and entitlement and privilege personified, up and dressed and out in the open for all to see.

His election has emboldened women. We now have a prime example of everything we have ever complained about to illustrate our many valid arguments against sexism and inequality and exploitation. Suddenly everyone can see that men get away with disgusting behaviour. There is no denying it, at least on the part of reasonable people of both sexes. So we have seen the avalanche of complaints against Harvey Weinstein and others in the entertainment industry and the #MeToo movement, and for the first time we have seen women and other victims taken seriously.

..to x-post with Peregrina and Bigly

A quick round up of JRM soundbites makes it obvious that he's completely detached from most people's day to day reality.

52% of voters were completely detached from their own day to day reality last June 23rd.

So JR-M is the ideal candidate.

mrsreynolds Thu 25-Jan-18 20:37:17
But...but...hes a Victorian caricature!

That is exactly his appeal.

Feel I should add the point I was dismally trying to make was why now ? I think I woke up a bit snitty yesterday and thought oh come on , this shit has been happening for years why now make a big fuss about it . I hadn't added Trump into the equation , but of course nothing occurs in isolation .

The why now ? because I wondered what it was detracting from , not because I in any way condone the behaviour .

Mathanxiety - the fact that as soon as they were exposed, the Presidents Club wound itself up tells you that they knew long ago that their behaviour wasn't acceptable. Good behaviour doesn't need secrecy.

I don't remember now which charity it was, but the founder of a nineteenth century one said that they were not going to pander to the egos of wealthy donors - no names being put on letterheads or buildings named after them; the donors would be thanked privately. If this annoyed them, their donation wasn't wanted.

Four male BBC presenters agree to take pay cut – report

Jeremy Vine, John Humphrys, Huw Edwards and Jon Sopel have all agreed, either formally or in principle, to reduce their salaries

amp.theguardian.com/media/2018/jan/26/four-male-bbc-presenters-agree-to-take-pay-cut-report?__twitter_impression=true

Do we have a date for for trumps visit?
I need to make travel plans!...

I hope there aren't any violent protests against the Trump visit. If it's a state visit, I think it would be far more effective if the route was lined with people turning their backs on him in silence. Wasn't something similar done by former PoW during a state visit by Japan's leader (emperor?)

CaraBosse - I had thought the same about turning our backs on Trump.

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Central Wight (Isle of Wight) result:

CON: 49.7% (-25.5)
LDEM: 26.0% (+26.0)
GRN: 13.0% (-5.9)
LAB: 9.2% (+3.2)
UKIP: 2.2% (+2.2)

Mark Alexander #FBPE
@markpalexander
Breaking: This was one of the most Brexity places in the UK. Support for the anti Brexit Lib Dem’s went from zero to 26%. We can stop Brexit through parliament. Brexit is bigger than party politics. Vote against it. #ABTV #FBPE #PCPEU

That is a really interesting result on the Isle of Wight. I really wouldn't have expected such a big move to the Lib Dems to be honest. Though saying that they are having big problems with health services and schools over there at the moment, so I imagine that may have played a part.

Isnt the Isle of Wight where several Tory local councillors quit over austerity?

Not so sure thats Brexit.

Yes I thought it was a bit of a bold assertion to claim to know what the electorate meant when they voted (where have we seen that before?) but it's interesting that the Tory loss benefited the lib dems more than labour.

MissMoon Very interesting news about Dutch intelligence infiltrated a Russian hacking network.
Unfortunately, there is so much going on atm, so many once in a lifetime horrors,
that we are probably overlooking many things that what otherwise be Westministender front page items.

Barnier, addressing the Spanish parliament Joint Commission on the EU^ a few days ago:^

useful updates he gave there

https://www.aol.co.uk/news/2018/01/23/eu-member-states-could-veto-post-brexit-trade-deal-barnier-warn/

"The question is whether the British, as they leave the EU, will also leave its regulatory model in order to draw closer to the Americans or others,

It's an important question because it will determine the model for co-operation we adopt
and the rules we will need to avoid regulatory competition or dumping.

If we don't find a solution to this question,
I can imagine that in many countries - starting with my own - there will be difficulties in securing ratification of a trade deal with the English.
< He's another who uses English / British interchangeably >

If we want to succeed - and I hope to succeed - we need to find a way to guarantee what is called in English a `level playing field'."

There was "no reason" why the EU would weaken its own social model to accommodate a UK desire to converge

i.e. the UK would have to be a rule-taker to get a trade deal
Taking back control ?

The UK-EU trade deal is expected to be a "mixed" treaty,
which requires the unanimous approval of the Member States - 38 national % regional parliaments - also of the European Parliament

< good news >
He told Spanish MPs he believed it was possible for an EU/UK trade deal to be concluded within the expected two-year transition period after the date of Brexit in March 2019
BUT
he warned that the risk of a disorderly exit would remain until the withdrawal deal under Article 50 of the EU treaties is finalised
and also endorsed by the European Council, European Parliament and Westminster.

At least, the E27 member parliaments do not hold a veto on the withdrawal agreement.

Asked what model London was seeking for the post-Brexit relationship, he replied:

"I can't tell you.
I'm waiting for British proposals, but I have heard the red lines they have laid down." 🤦🏻‍♀️ 🤷‍♀️

mathanxiety

Frumpety , I suspect part of the reason why the Gropers Gala is no longer acceptable is the fact that Donald Trump is now president. This (sorry excuse for a) man would have been right at home at that event. He is rich white male arrogance and entitlement and privilege personified, up and dressed and out in the open for all to see. His election has emboldened women.

are you suggesting that in the grand scheme of things Trumps election/presidency might actually leave the world in a better state than before ? In which case can the end justify the means ?

https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2018/0124/935804-brexit-transition/

According to a draft document setting out how the transition will work,
the EU will signal that a transition period extending beyond December 2020 may be possible
...
Rees-Mogg said that if Britain remained subject to EU rules for a two-year period beyond the exit date of 30 March 2019,
without having any participation in the rule-making process,
then it would be reduced to a "vassal state".

< but it looks like this is what May's hopeless dunces will end up with .... for years & years & years >
....
Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney has said the transition period should last for five years.

The transition will be a so-called "stand still" arrangement, meaning that the UK will have to abide by all of the EU rules and obligations, without having any MEPs or any presence at EU ministerial councils.
.....
It is also understood that the UK will have to remain within the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) during the transition period.
...
According to one EU source, draft minutes to be attached to the negotiating directives will spell out that the directives "will remain under close review" and that member states will be "ready to update them when necessary".

RTÉ News understands that some Eastern European states pushed for this signal to be recorded in the minutes during a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels, in which the draft negotiating directives were finalised.

It is understood the minutes are a "cryptic" way to allow the EU to extend the transition period at short notice.
< i.e. when May's dunces see a cliff edge inches away >

I wonder if Barnier would extend his retirement date ?
Nope because the poor bugger at age 80 could be still waiting for a UK govt to get off the pot and put a cork in it

I really, really hope DD retires asap

The chief executive of JP Morgan has told the BBC it could cut its 16,000 UK workforce by more than a quarter if financial rules diverge after Brexit.

www.bbc.com/news/business-42809691