Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Yes, must make sure I get to the anti Trump protest - another mistake by Theresa. Mind you, Trump himself might find an excuse.

Rees Moog wisdom eh? So where are those voters that are going to flock to him going to come from?

Just as likely to keep conservative liberals sat at home too, in the same way that a lot of Labour voters will sit home for Corbyn in the end.

That bubble has burst, I feel. It was on the crest of anti-brexit sentiment.

If there an election in six months time between corbyn and mogg, that turn out will be interesting...

Philip Hammond
@PhilipHammondUK
I said in #Davos that gov wants to minimise any reduction in access to EU market post Brexit. And it’s a fact our economies are integrated, that’s the baseline from which we leave the single market and customs union – which clearly represents change.1/2

For anyone concerned - I was clear earlier in same speech at #Davos U.K. will cease to be member of EU on 29 March 2019, and after we will be outside Customs Union and the Single Market” 2/2

I keep reading those two tweets from Hammond, but no matter how hard I try they just don't seem to be making any more sense.

Bigly, it's because he's being pressured from one side to emphasise that we're leaving, and from another not to frighten the horses by talking about economic downsides to leaving.

He makes about as much sense as Theresa M when she talks about any aspect of Brexit; because they're all walking tightropes/trying to square circles/insisting we can have cake and eat it...

It is not getting any less like Alice Through the Looking-Glass.

YANBU postsynaptic

steve hawkes
@steve_hawkes
Jacob Rees Mogg confirms to @bbclaurak that the Brexiteer Tories will seek to amend the Customs Bill - first time the Brexit grouping has used this tactic. Mutiny on both sides of No.10 now

Strange to see "Moggy" and "wisdom" in the same sentence
Strange times we are living through

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Chancellor’s words in Davos, welcoming CBI’s contribution to debate (on a customs union), suggesting that “highly aligned” EU & UK regulatory systems would move selectively, hopefully only “very modestly apart” after Brexit

Jacob Rees-Mogg told me that the CBI calling for “a customs union” was like a “self-licking lollipop”, and that it was acting as the “provisional wing” of the Treasury.

Tory MPs say that there is a “proxy battle” between the CBI and ERG which is really about the battle in Cabinet over customs and alignment. On both sides Cabinet ministers have urged outriders to make their case for and against “a customs union”

Also Rees-Mogg appears to be really going for it as ERG Chair, with his “vassal state” ambush of Davis yday, iv with me suggesting MPs could “easily amend” Customs Bill, & speech tonight saying government’s tone “has to fundamentally change”

Sample from JR-M speech tonight - net effect seems designed to stiffen spines of Cabinet Brexiters in coming weeks... & they certainly seem to have been rather loquacious in past few days with paper briefings and speeches...

And ex Cabinet minister Owen Paterson joining in the criticism of the Chancellor/ Treasury:

Owen Paterson MP
@OwenPaterson
Reminder! @Conservatives Manifesto got 13.7M votes: "As we leave the EU, we will no longer be members of the Single Market or Customs Union" and immigration policy "to reduce and control the number of people who come to Britain from the EU." @PhilipHammondUK @DavidDavisMP

postsynptic You and 3 million others
plus 1 million+ Brits like me
but I have far more confidence that the E27 will be kind than I have in May's Home Office

So, do we think Moggy is strutting his stuff, preparing to stand in a Tory leadership election ?
red ?

Alarm signals from the 1922 Committee Chair that they are perilously near the 48 letters that automatically call this
If letters are sent openly, it would be difficult and extremely risky personally, for the Chair to hide the fact if / when the 48 has been reached

Is Rees mogg really that popular with tory voters though??

Is Rees mogg really that popular with tory voters though??

I guess he only has to be more popular than the other options. He does tick the posh and unprincipled boxes, so sounds like a vote winner to me

A quick round up of JRM soundbites makes it obvious that he's completely detached from most people's day to day reality. If the papers wanted to scupper him, they could do. If.

How and when does the 1922 chair announce that the number has been reached these days? In parliament, in a press conference, on Twitter..?

But...but...hes a Victorian caricature!

Ffs

The only Tory voters he has to be popular with are:

1. the MPs, to get to the final round of 2 contestants
   
   MPs are mostly Remain, but Brexiters may have just sufficient numbers & influence for their choice to come 2nd, narrowly ahead of a 3rd place Remainer soft Brexiter

2. the party members to win in that final round
   They are overwhelmingly hard right, authoritarian, nationalist, anti-immigrant, socially conservative … and very pro Brexit
   They would LOVE Moggy

The sad truth is that JRM doesn't have to appeal to the Conservative voters - he just has to appeal to the tiny Conservative Party membership - a different beast entirely

pretty He first has to reach the final round of 2 contestants on which the party members vote
So, some clever tactics and leveraging of the 80 or so ERG votes
plus some smooching to the softer right of the party

Tory MPs have the power to block any loony from becoming leader
… but they don't always use it

in 2001, MPs selected final 2 candidatez:
#1 Kenneth Clarke
#2 IDS

The party members voted 2:1 in favour of IDS, who then became leader.

We could have a similar scenario:
Moggy sneaking in as #2 in the MPs votes, well behind a "moderate"
the party members then voting heavily for Moggy as leader and PM

do we think Moggy is strutting his stuff, preparing to stand in a Tory leadership election
Difficult to argue he's not. I don't think he thinks he will win nor does he want to. He's a smart enough man to make a tactical move though. Far more likely he'd be willing to act as a stalking horse to try and spread the remain vote and get a leave candidate to the final two.

Both parties' MPs feel they need to keep the hardcore membership sweet, by allowing a token party hardliner in the contest.
Gesture politics, playing to the party gallery, to build up their own party profile, but misjudging the consequences

This is why the soft Labour left accidentally let Corbyn be elected : they felt he should receive enough nominations to be included
This is why IDS was elected and why Moggy may be elected

imo, Moggy is too ambitious to be a stalking horse

We tend to underestimate him because we find him ridiculous
The problem is:
we also underestimate the damaging British deference towards the real ruling class, not the technocratic mc / expert class that the same people often despise - an interesting topic in itself

But...but...hes a Victorian caricature!

Ah the Victorian era! When we had an empire, a strong class system, and the rich could work the poor until they died for minimal wages. A time of workhouses, growing middle classes making their money from an unchecked industrialist capitalist system and a growing ideology of individualism (at least for people who could afford it). Surely this is everything that made us great and important. What's not to love!

If anything, Moggy could use Bojo as his stalking horse

Faced with the national embarassment, even danger, of having Boris as PM - yes he could provoke some country into declaring war -
Moggy could seem acceptable