Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Liam Fox's International Trade department is not fit to secure post-Brexit deals, warns report

Watchdog warns it ‘has not yet defined the range of capabilities and level of capacity it will require to undertake its role in delivering an independent UK trade function’

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-brexit-international-trade-department-eu-deals-dit-nao-uk-donald-trump-wilbur-ross-a8176496.html

Laura Hughes @ LauraKHughes
In first interview since @FT broke #PresidentsClub report, Theresa May tells Bloomberg: "Women are not just objects to be used by men."
“I thought that that sort of attitude of the objectification of women was something that was in the past. Sadly, what that event showed is that there is still a lot more work for us to do.” #PresidentsClub

1. she really is blinkered and out of touch isn't she?
2. would anyone like to trigger a leadership election this week now, after she's just said that?

Can you imagine the reaction?

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-deal-vote-mps-not-have-full-details-hammond-latest-news-a8177226.html?amp&__twitter_impression=true
Brexit: MPs won't have 'full details' of deal when they vote on it, Philip Hammond reveals

Meaningful vote anybody?

Though at this point, thus could work for us as much as against. Is it Brexiteers or Remainers that the government are most bothered about scuppering a deal at this point?

Though at this point, thus could work for us as much as against. Is it Brexiteers or Remainers that the government are most bothered about scuppering a deal at this point?

I would have thought Napoleon and Hitler were sterling examples of not fighting wars on two fronts.

James O'Brien @ mrjamesob
David Davis effectively told yesterday’s select committee that he spent the entire referendum campaign entirely ignorant of the most fundamental ramifications of leaving the EU. And I’m just relieved to find that I’m still capable of being shocked.
^We just asked @DExEUgov whether @DavidDavisMP had really spent the entire referendum campaign ignorant of the most basic rules surrounding trade negotiations.
They replied: "His words speak for themselves."^

Always good to know your team stands up for you.

Boris Johnson's Great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmother

It's telling that she also lived a life of privilege.

That statement was from the US Treasury Sec - and didn't give any timescale
The US Trade Sec, Rex Tillerson, was talking of "not necessarily as long as 10 years" but said it would have to allow US farm exports

Any deal with the US will have to let in their chlorine chicken and hormone-ridden beef
not to mention all their products with HFCS (High-fructose corn syrup)

Otherwise the huge US agribusiness / farming interests, which no Congress or POTUS have dared to frustrate, will block any deal.

I always thought it strange there wasn’t more outrage over the creation of an Underminister for Women, Equality and Early Years in 2015 (held by Caroline Dinage).
It was abolished, and the responsibilities split, after the disastrous 2017 election but, for 2 years, we actually had a Government position that covered Women and Childcare and the dubious message that sent to young women.

Faisal Islam
‏*@faisalislam*
New Brexit Forensics on “the” vs “A” customs union out on @SkyNews today.. first a news story on a potential rebellion amending a piece of legislation that would allow a fast-track re-establishment of a Customs Union

news.sky.com/story/brexiteers-could-rebel-over-brexit-legislation-for-first-time-11221787

ERG chair Jacob Rees-Mogg tells me that the Taxation (Cross Border Bill) containing this reference to recreating a Customs Union “could easily be amended... lets see what happens at Committee and Report stage”
Bill also contains fast track provision for establishing new Common tariff, whereas PM’s Lanc House speech said “I do not want us to be bound by the Common External Tariff”...asked if this was a rollback, JR-M said he was “confused” as to why Treasury “would want to undermine PM”

Laura Kuenssberg @ bbclaurak
1. Trouble ahead- Rees Mogg, who represents many Tory backbenchers will say tonight, govts tone on Brexit 'needs to fundamentally change' - 'approach seems to be we must accept what the EU will allow us to do...this is no way to negotiate and no way for this country to behave
2. Backbench Brexiteers getting their say before David Davis makes his speech on transition tomorrow - think what you like about Rees Mogg but as head of the ERG group he has a lot of sway, and ministers know he is popular with Tory grassroots

Can I just say, on a personal note, and as a UK resident european citizen, that the I can't cope anymore with the level of anxiety this fucking dog's dinner is causing me.

Carry on please

order-order.com/2018/01/25/hammond-demands-high-alignment-and-free-movement/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
HAMMOND DEMANDS HIGH ALIGNMENT AND FREE MOVEMENT

Alex Wickham @ wikiguido
If the change to our relationship with the EU is only "very modest", we continue with high alignment and free movement, what is the point of Brexit?
💥 Here we go... backlash from Whitehall source: “Hammond is the most tin eared politician in the U.K. He has no following in the Conservative Party and bears the imprint of the last City special interest who sat on him.”

Christopher Hope @ ChristopherHope
NEW Jacob Rees-Mogg: "The government's tone on Brexit needs to fundamentally change. If [Brexit's opportunities are] taken off the table then Brexit becomes only a damage limitation exercise. The British people did not vote for that. They didn't vote for management of decline."

BIG MOMENT KLAXON This is effectively a declaration of war by at least 60 Eurosceptic backbench Conservative MPs on Theresa May and her team at 10 Downing Street over the Brexit talks.

Christopher Hope is the Torygraph's chief political correspondent.

So thats him and Laura K saying this is significant and big, and todays Sun saying that the 1922 committee nearly has enough letters.

It Davis gives the speech currently expected tomorrow, then boom, there could be a problem. The Tory Right were always more likely to be unwilling to compromise than the Tory Remainers and they fear a leadership contest and potential collapse of government less.

Really does sound like something brewing...

Jon Stone
‏*@joncstone*
As far as I can tell, Tory thinking behind Jacob Rees-Mogg being their next leader is 'conventional wisdom told us Corbyn would be a disaster for Labour, and he did quite well; conventional wisdom tells us Jacob Rees-Mogg would be a disaster for us, so let’s pick him’

Ooo more klaxons and booms

Joe Murphy @ joemurphylondon
#KLAXON I hear two Tory MPs have indicated to collegaues they will be writing letters to Sir Graham Brady this weekend.
Although a confidence vote is not thought imminent, a Tory says the local elections will the "maximum danger point" for Theresa May

Alex Wickham @ wikiguido
💥💥 2nd Whitehall source: “People voted to take back control yet Hammond clearly wants to keep control in Brussels. His high alignment plan pushed by ultra Remainers would be a disaster - making us a submissive rule taker. This unsanctioned intervention should slapped down hard”
Question now is did Number 10 sanction Hammond's soft Brexit intervention? And if not will they slap him down?

Unlike our negotiators, Guy Verhofstadt tells it exactly as it is:

twitter.com/yourmeps/status/956193567298420741

Why are Davis et al. still insisting we can tell them what we want and they'll just give in?

Why are Davis et al. still insisting we can tell them what we want and they'll just give in?

Because we're British, damn it!

Tom Newton Dunn @ tnewtondunn
Intriguing. Hammond calls for Britain to move apart only "very modestly" from the EU, and No10 has just refused to contradict him in any way. Brexit is undoubtedly softening.

Oh and Trump is still coming...

"Don't they know who we are? "

Oh and Trump is still coming...

Yer what?

Yep apparently so. Theresa is finalising plans for Donnie, no 10 has confirmed.

think what you like about Rees Mogg but as head of the ERG group he has a lot of sway, and ministers know he is popular with Tory grassroots

The Tory grassroots are parched and brown, with few green shoots coming through.

'conventional wisdom told us Corbyn would be a disaster for Labour, and he did quite well; conventional wisdom tells us Jacob Rees-Mogg would be a disaster for us, so let’s pick him’

But whose 'conventional wisdom' was it? It was the Tory papers constantly briefing against him plus the disgraceful behaviour of the Blairites in the PLP for two groups, but they were so full of their own prejudice that they were blind to what was happening on the ground.

Red, OK, I'll just have to get back on to thinking of a hilarious yet apposite placard slogan then