Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/24/momentum-labour-selection-defeats-seats-control-party?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Momentum sustains a string of Labour selection defeats
Group has won in seven of 29 seats and says results dispel claim it has total control of party

“the chance to name the new Evelina children’s high dependency unit after yourself, a loved one, or a company”.

I read an interesting suggestion years ago, that rather than supporting political parties, cannabis users organise a week to donate a £1 to a chosen charity as a positive protest ...

Vernon Kaye always did give me the creeps. Nasty man

Bigly I absolutely get you about the generational luck thing. DH and I bought a house in London in 1997 for £70,000 and sold it 5 years later for £180,000. We then bought our next house for £270,000 and sold it 2 years ago for £800,000 which means we have a 4 bedroom house in zone 2 in London with no mortgage.
There was absolutely no skill involved. It was purely about being in the right place at the right time. I still feel guilty about it sometimes because we didn’t do anything to ‘earn’ it. We just massively lucked out.
But it has made me feel like I have a duty to pay my good luck back to society. I don’t feel like I can just take it and run.

I am intrigued by the controversy surrounding the Gropers Gala , as one newspaper has taken to calling it . Perhaps it is my age or ingrained cynicism but I keep thinking why now ?
These types of events have been going on for donkeys years , is it because of the #metoo campaign and a heightened sense of awareness that we are seeing such a mainstream backlash or is it a case of it being politically expedient to draw attention to it now ?

Frumpety Imo, #metoo just gave the final impulse to kill off conduct that has long been socially unacceptable everywhere else

Most of the 1970s gropey habits have long since been called out and (officially) stopped
Evening galas, blokey events, are simply the last and most persistent nuts to crack

These types of events have been going on for donkeys years , is it because of the #metoo campaign and a heightened sense of awareness that we are seeing such a mainstream backlash or is it a case of it being politically expedient to draw attention to it now

I think BigChoc has it. What we are seeing with this sort of thing is a social and cultural shift in what is acceptable behaviour. It is similar to what happened with racism and homophobia. There was a time when it was perfectly normal to hear a comedian make racist jokes, but then it stopped being acceptable and there was a period of change and adjustment that had to happen to make that shift. We are now seeing that happen with attitudes to women.

This means things that carried on for decades without anyone batting an eyelid are now going to be called out. Not because the action has changed but because social attitudes have shifted. This is why I get annoyed by the faux shock and outrage, because of course everyone knew these things where going on. They haven't been a secret. It is just that it was considered the way things were and women were told to put up with it. It is also why the people saying 'but this even has been happening for years' are missing the point.

Of course, as we are seeing now with Brexit and racism, social attitudes can swing both ways. If we want these attitudes to stay changed we have to keep the pressure up and not let things slide backwards again.

Bigly I hope you are right . Nadhim Zahawi , was he naïve to attend or just plain stupid or arrogant ?
I attend a charity fundraiser which is single sex , women only , weirdly we do not need any male hostesses to stroke our egos or anything else

I had a similar conversation with some parents at school when they were complaining that it wasn't fair something couldn't happen now when it had been done for years. I pointed out that caning children was the norm for years, would they accept it for their child just because it was the done thing in the past? No was the resounding answer. Sometimes things have to change, tradition doesn't justify keeping them the same.

I have a bit of a metoo story about male only events. I used to have a part time job in a pub that did occasional catering for events for the local Masonic Lodge (this wasn't mentioned when I took the job). After a few months there I was asked if I wanted to work the Mason's Christmas lunch doing serving and drinks and stuff. I never wear make up and was told I should for the event. I was told that they got a bit drunk and free with their hands, but it was OK because it paid really well and they gave great tips. I should just be polite and say I needed to get on with my job if they grabbed me.

I was in my mid-twenties and had worked in pubs for years, I also had another job, which I preferred anyway, so I declined. They could not understand why I didn't want to do it, even when I made it clear I didn't want to walk into a room full of men who were going to try and grope me. I ended up leaving that pub pretty soon after as their inability to see the problem meant I just never felt safe working there again. I was lucky I could turn it down and had the confidence to do so. I am sure there were other young women who worked there that didn't have the option of walking away.

That’s horrid bigly, how lucky that you weren’t that reliant on the pub for security but it’s awfyl to think how many people have fewer choices available to them Hopefully this new holding people to account will be sustained

Andrew Adonis
@Andrew_Adonis
EU WITHDRAWAL BILL LATEST: Labour and Lib Dem leaderships in the Lords yday caved into Govt pressure to limit 2nd Reading debate next week to just 2 days, altho there are 160 speakers! Demeaning to the Lords & disgraceful to the public! It shd have been 4 days. Big mistake.

Vernon Kaye always did give me the creeps.

Is that the same Vernon Kaye who got caught in a sexting scandal?

Twice.

Despite it nearly breaking up his marriage the first time.

Yes. Yes it would.

Strange coincidence that one.

Harry Cole @ MrHarryCole
Tories on red alert for unwanted but potentially imminent confidence vote in T May as official letters pour in to boss of powerful 1922 Committee:
www.thesun.co.uk/news/5418556/tory-backbench-boss-sir-graham-brady-begs-angry-mps-not-to-call-leadership-contest/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
HERE COME THE MEN IN GRAY Tory backbench boss Sir Graham Brady begs angry MPs not to call leadership contest
One senior backbencher told The Sun Mr Brady was “ashen faced” at the prospect of getting one more letter – which could spark a bitter leadership election and plunge Brexit talks into chaos

The party grandee’s terrified reaction suggests the number of letters he has already received may now have reached the mid 40s, as anger with “dull, dull, dull” Theresa May spirals on the Tory benches.

Tim Shipman @ shippersunbound
Getting a lot of Tory anger over today’s big story. Nadhim Zahawi is a good man and the Tories need people who can talk normal and have an entrepreneurial spirit. Major own goal if he’s forced out
For a weak prime minister to be briefing against her own team on the front of the Telegraph is tonight causing fury in the ranks. May is skating on very thin ice.

amp.ft.com/content/8c74cce8-ff88-11e7-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May’s new Brexit strategy: jump first, argue later
No 10 has no clear vision of Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with its own continent

The prime minister’s chosen road to Brexit is paved with fudge. Hard choices can wait. The only thing that counts is getting over the line by March 2019.

It seems that the Presidents Club could yet bring down May due to MPs rushing to defend Nadhim Zahawi.

If thats the event that tips the balance and triggers a leadership election that really will be utterly depressing.

Japanes Knotweed @ JKControl
'Theresa May gives every impression of being the “Japanese knotweed” prime minister: bedding in so deep that no one will be able to pull her out of Number 10' we can't get rid of #politicians but we CAN get rid of #Japaneseknotweed

Robert Peston @ peston
Is Brexit a threat to women’s rights? Not an unreasonable question in light of recent events

Well strangely Robert, thats what many of us on MN have been saying since at least April 2016...

AlexBarker @ alexebarker
1/ Brexit and EU third country deals. It's crazily complicated. But it is getting simpler (for the transition at least). A thread on how I understand it.
2/ The UK will automatically fall out of hundreds of EU agreements on Brexit day. Here is a full list of the 750 relevant to the UK. t.co/GFuWpv0cvn
3/ The EU, however, sees Britain as still bound by the obligations of the agreements during transition because it remains under the single market and customs union.
4/ So UK has to convince the third countries (largely out of goodwill) to rollover the agreements in order to preserve UK access - the benefits of the deals. (Remember 3rd country access to UK remains the same)
5/ The UK's original approach (via Liam Fox) was to handle this bilaterally with 3rd countries. Whitehall slowly discovered this was a complete nightmare (how do you roll over provisions that say a product should be 40% eu made etc).
6/ The EU is happy for the UK to talk to countries, as long as it doesn't enter agreements during the transition that affect EU obligations. The EU wants the UK to seek "authorisation" for any agreements.
7/ We're now seeing the UK position shifting. David Davis will tomorrow say the UK wants the EU to help rollover the benefits of the agreements for the UK.
8/ That revises the Liam Fox bilateral approach because the first port of call is Brussels, rather than third countries.
9/ The EU have become more open to this (they had considered a more selective deal-by-deal approach). Officials see the upside of just extending everything. But it would have to be everything -- no exceptions.
10/ The advantage for the UK: a joint position will reduce the chances of third countries trying to exploit the situation. It potentially also reduces hassle by taking a simple approach to everything.
11/ But it will probably come with a price for the UK. Some EU diplomats have mentioned their support being conditional on fisheries policy (sorry Michael Gove) or requiring full citizen rights & free movement protections until end of transition.
12/ Even a joint position doesn't solve everything. Third countries may have procedural issues with giving rollover consent (for instance the US usually needs congressional approval for nuclear deals)
13/ Final thing: DD wants to an exemption from the "sincere cooperation" in EU treaty during transition. Brexiters think this give UK freedom to negotiate trade deals. The EU side don't see that as necessary or possible (it's part of the acquis)

This made me snigger. I am enjoying all these people claiming they turned up with no idea of what the event was about, saw nothing and then left immediately, while at the same time claiming that it was all just a bit of fun and a perfectly reasonable way to raise money for charity.

I can't help think that the #metoo campaign and the furore over the Gropers Gala has gained traction because of who the US President is. Would it have happened under a basically decent man like Obama, or Carter?

Driven upthread talked about how a lot of young people in particular had thought that we already had equality. Feminism became a dirty word and something a lot of people no longer thought was needed. Having someone like Trump in the White House has given a lot of complacent people a kick up the arse. It made them realise that just because there has been progress and people have talked the talk under the surface the same old issues and attitudes are still there waiting to come back to the fore. I think it has scared women and minorities in particular into taking action again and not assuming that progress is inevitable.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-200m-every-week-in-lost-growth-says-carney-mxr5cwkhf
Interesting article.....

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-42805485?__twitter_impression=true
Boris Johnson's Great-great-great-great-great-great-great grandmother

I can see the family resemblance!!!

A bone for the leavers? Empty talk I'm sure but now they have something almost tangible (other than passports and stamps) to hold on to.

Brexit: US ready for an 'attractive' UK trade deal

www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42815836#comment_129407740

Glad to see changing your mind is still allowed

Chuka Umunna
‏*@ChukaUmunna*
WATCH: David Davis just admitted at @CommonsEUexit committee that he "changed his mind" on his previous support for the Customs Union.

If Davis can change his mind, so can the British public. Please RT:
Open Britain

twitter.com/twitter/statuses/956107458811977728