Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

BiglyBadgers mist & hashy thanks, god points about the British government intentionally worsening our situation. It's a return to the class system on steroids.

Anyone older than 50 ? Then this happened in your lifetime ....

When Adam Ringer was forcibly removed from Poland simply because he was Jewish, he didn't think he'd ever be able to return to his homeland.
It was back in 1968 that Mr Ringer, 19 at the time, was made to renounce his Polish citizenship and kicked out of the country, during one of communism's darker episodes.
Just 23 years after the Holocaust, Poland's surviving Jewish population was targeted by an anti-Semitic purge officially sanctioned by the country's then communist authorities.
^Branded an "anti-Zionist" campaign, Polish Jews were stripped of their jobs and deported, because of the government's - and the wider Soviet Bloc's - growing hostility towards Israel at the time.
An estimated 14,000 Poles of Jewish faith or ancestry were forced to leave the country, after each being given a document that stated that its holder was stateless and had no right to ever return to Poland.^

(contd)

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/22/uk-home-office-tells-stateless-man-go-home

The Guardian‏Verified account
@guardian
Nigel Farage and Arron Banks in talks over new political project

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/21/nigel-farage-and-ex-ukip-donor-in-talks-over-new-political-project?CMP=twt_gu

Seb Dance MEP
@SebDance
More Seb Dance MEP Retweeted The Guardian
Because Brexit is impossible, because the govt is fudging it and not being honest, because May did everything she could to play to the fantasy we have now the best conditions for generations for new far-right “betrayal” movement.

Forget waste-of-space UKIP. This is a real threat

The elf previously known as hashi here.

Thanks space, I'll try in my local library tomorrow. Seems like they may want to run it like a facebook group

misti you may appreciate this:
@Jo_Marney
Replying to @TomScorza
I wouldn’t stand for leadership of a party that treats its leader like this. To say the swamp needs to be drained is an understatement. The NEC is the biggest bog going.

@MichaelLCrick
Retweeted Jo Marney
Funny how Henry Bolton’s sometime girlfriend Jo Marney also suggested that he should drain the swamp. She, too, was referring to Ukip NEC, about 18 hours before Bolton’s statement used the phrase this afternoon

Business leaders push for new campaign to reverse Brexit
Senior figures in CBI urge lobby group to toughen its message amid concerns over exports
www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/22/business-leaders-push-for-new-campaign-to-reverse-brexit

Today Toyota announces €300m investment in French plant, with 700 new jobs which would have come here otherwise?
http://www.lavoixdunord.fr/302067/article/2018-01-22/toyota-annonce-700-emplois-crees-et-300-millions-d-euros-d-investissement

One last quick delurk, from another thread. What a cracking young woman .

Hello -
Thanks Red for keeping this thread alive. Delurking:

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-france/french-customs-to-hire-hundreds-of-extra-staff-to-cope-with-brexit-idUKKBN1FB28H

Not looking forward to this again..

Jaguar Land Rover cutting production at Halewood plant, cite Brexit.

Youcanonlylaugh Your post sounds like you've been reading a Tory / Brexit journalist trying to convince voters that everywhere is equally shit.
Germany is not perfect, but it's way ahead of the UK in quality of life.
Germany's problems are manageable, whereas the UK has been on a downward slope - relative prosperity to other countries, power & influence - for several decades

I'm not really a recent immigrant in the sense of coming new to Germany
I've been mostly working in Germany since 1987 (hence why it was so easy for me to take the next step, sell up everything in the UK & fully emigrate)
So I've known Germany pretty well for 30 years and seen the changes in both Germany & the UK over that time

I admit to being pretty privileged, being a STEM Phd, but that's in both countries
and I must say that the professional middle class that is very squeezed in the UK has a very comfortable life in Germany.
Life in the UK was becoming too tiresome & complicated for me, even before the referendum

In Germany, I have a fair bit of contact with the skilled working class - production line workers of our various widgets - and they seem very comfortable too, people who'd be precariat / JAMs in the UK.
A couple of single middle-aged women at my gym are longterm unemployed - they seem to have a pretty relaxed life, no hassle, can afford gym, car, flat, going out.

Advantages of Germany (longterm personal view)

• Housing costs much lower, even around Frankfurt

• Renting is brilliant, so safe & easy
  . Security of tenure for as long as you pay rent - if an LL wants to sell, they do so with a sitting tenant; they can't evict
  . Rent control - limits on how much rent can be increased in any 5-year period
  . Makeovers - not just paint & wallpaper- You can fit new kitchens, bathrooms, flooring and then take them with you or sell to the LL or the next tenant
  . No expensive vetting, just show your last 3 months payslip and your ID

• Free university education - no fees

• Easier on kids
  . Schools finish 1:30, so kids much less stressed, time to play
  . No horrible SATS obsession
  . School starts age 6, so pupils are more able to cope emotionally
  . No school uniforms, no regimentation, hassle &mexpense for that crap

• Subsidised childcare for everyone, much cheaper than in the Uk.
  My colleague said he paid monthly about €110 each for 5 fulltime days for his 4-year old and 6-year-old

• Huge manufacturing sector
  . They produce goods the world wants to buy at the right price. Millions of good manufacturing jobs & apprenticeships
  . The UK relies about 80% on services, with depressed wages and - for financial serices- vulnerability to CIty spivs

• Huge current account surplus, currently 8% annually
  Compare that to a UK annual deficit since God knows how many years

• Public services & infrastructure pretty well-resourced because all parties agree that public services will be adequately funded by taxation.
  Public transport heavily subsidised and reliable

• Health services superb
  . I've always been able to phone my GP in the morning and get a same day appointment
  . A colleague had standard post-chemo rehab: an all expenses paid 6 weeks in a clinic in the Alps, with organic food, exercise program, meditation- to help is body & mind recover from chemo.

• Crime / disorder: Crime rate in comparable kind of areas seems lower, more peaceful atmosphere (I live in the same standard of property, in whichever country)
  In the street, Germans seem to get merry drinking, not aggressive or vomiting
  I feel safe being out in German town centres in the evening, or catching a 5am train
  whereas for years I've avoided the Uk town & city centres at night. I had to catch the early RailAir from Reading last year and the station surround was very scary with all the drunk clubbers going

• Integration: Immigrants integrate pretty well.
  Noticeable that East Europeans just don't face the same hostility as in the UK - even the AfD likes them
  Refugees are more challenging - but I still see posters with "Willkommen (welcome) Refugees" and my current employer is involved with this.
  Germany took in several 100,000s that were often victims of UK-US wars, whereas the UK took in a few hundred of its own victims and the tabloids went into hysterical panic mode.

< Peers under Elf's cap to see Hashi >

Different views of Brexit, Uk vs E27

Alan Sked (remember him ?) I founded Ukip. It’s a national joke now and should disappear

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/22/founded-ukip-national-joke-disappear-henry-bolton-alan-sked

Hmm. Mostly agree, BigChoc but:

Not sure about "+ Easier on kids
. Schools finish 1:30, so kids much less stressed, time to play
. No horrible SATS obsession
. School starts age 6, so pupils are more able to cope emotionally
. No school uniforms, no regimentation, hassle &mexpense for that crap"

School starts age 6, but once it starts you sit at a desk the whole time.
Less understanding of dyslexia, ND kids, etc etc
Not all schools finish that early, and they start way earlier which is harder on teenagers.
Loads of testing even if not SATs.
Grammar schools as the norm.
Generally much more regimented curriculum (although the UK getting worse in that respect.)

Can you tell not liking the school system is one of the major factors putting me off moving the family to Germany? (That and aging parents, DH and DSs don't speak German...)

Brexit: UK has already 'agreed in principle' with EU to Norway-style transition

Exclusive: Key figure on the European Parliament's Brexit steering group tells The Independent UK officials did not object to the plans in meetings

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-updates-uk-leave-eu-norway-transition-terms-parliament-theresa-may-a8173076.html

BlueEye German schools a digression !

hours
There may be exceptions, but this is the norm:
Schools finish sometime 12:00 -1:30.
The start is 7:30 - 08:15, which imo even teens should manage - adults start & finish work earlier too, so I think Germany just has an earlier start to the day
Classes 45 minutes each, each with short break, no double periods.

Probably because I'm an HFA, the Grammar school system of sitting at desks facing a teacher really suited me (1968-74)
I'd have broken down in a system of group work, noise, talking, milling about.
Nightmare. A horrendous mistake in the UK, imo
I couldn't possibly have learned , or even survived, in that atmosphere.

Testing, from teachers who have experience in both systems:
In Germany, nowhere near so narrowly focused on SATS & grades, so teachers have the freedom to teach their subject, not just to pass tests.
Employers feedback in Germany is that workers are well-educated & i ndependent, whereas Uk employers keep whingeing about workers who are functionally illiterate, need hand-holding, who've never learned to get themselves to appointments on time.

That's another thing I like: that German kids are expected to take themselves independently to school at age 6
They play outside without parents supervising them
Some of the freedom I had as a child

End result
in the UK, despite the long hours at school, the kids end up at the lower end of reading and maths capability for Western industrialised countries.
Worse still, surveys keep finding UK kids are the most unhappiest and stressed. Clearly the UK system isn't working for kids.

Certainly at age 6+, kids are better able to cope with school - and it is a much shorter schoolday, too
That helps kids who have SEN
A colleague has a son with SN and my impression is that there is more specialised provision in specialist schools.

The German school system reminds me of the tertiary system as originally intended in the 1944 Uk Act - but all 3 strands are properly funded in Germany, not just the most academic one as happened in the UK.
It works

We sat at desks from age 5, facing the teacher, who taught.
It was a quiet, controlled, low-stress environment which suited me
We had breaks times to let off steam in the playground

On Brexit, as on appeasement, the CBI gets the big decisions wrong. Just what is the point of it?

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/22/brexit-appeasement-cbi-gets-big-decisions-wrong-just-point/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Prof Tanja Bueltmann
@cliodiaspora
First they came for the migrants. Then they came for the judges. Then for the MPs. ... Now for the CBI. Look at the rhetoric here ... ➡️ On Brexit, as on appeasement, the CBI gets the big decisions wrong. Just what is the point of it?'

Rape complainants have been warned by the director of public prosecutions that

if they stay silent during sex their attackers may assume consent was given and therefore escape being charged

So a woman should yell and risk being beaten or strangled, otherwise consent may be assumed ?

https://www.theguardian.com/law/2018/jan/22/stay-silent-during-and-attackers-may-assume-consent-warns-dpp

Silent during "sex" ?
That's rape, not "sex"

Gosh. When I was younger the advice was to stay quiet to minimise risk to yourself of being beaten/murdered as well as rape.

An aside.... Bigchoc a lot of what you say does make Germany sound sensible. However, the school hours:

The start is 7:30 - 08:15, which imo even teens should manage - adults start & finish work earlier too, so I think Germany just has an earlier start to the day

I've personal experience of teens finding it incredibly difficult to get up in the morning. There is science to explain this difference in their circadian rhythm, which is hormone-driven. (Once they found out about this, my kids always blamed their 'circadian rhythm' when they had a lie-in!) But in an ideal world, I guess they'd have a later start than younger pupils.

Changes to this circadian rhythm occur during adolescence, when most teens experience a sleep phase delay. This shift in teens' circadian rhythm causes them to naturally feel alert later at night, making it difficult for them to fall asleep before 11:00 pm. Since most teens have early school start times along with other commitments, this sleep phase delay can make it difficult to get the sleep teens need -- an average of 9 1/4 hours, but at least 8 hours. This sleep deprivation can influence the circadian rhythm; for teens the strongest circadian “dips” tend to occur between 3:00-7:00 am and 2:00-5:00 pm, but the morning dip (3:00-7:00 am) can be even longer if teens haven’t had enough sleep, and can even last until 9:00 or 10:00 am

sleepfoundation.org/sleep-topics/sleep-drive-and-your-body-clock

Apropos of nothing, it seems the Foreign Secretary is stepping in to fix the NHS ...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42783247

I bet even Boris wishes that bus had never existed ...

Seems like Boris only cares about the NHS when it helps him win an election.

Continuing the digression, admittedly my first hand experience of the German system is a few years out of date, but it is decentralised to Bundesland level so provisions for SEN presumably vary as I know people whose DC have a very tough time because of it. It was the circadian rhythm stuff I was thinking of Re teens - I never had a problem getting up personally but I know about that research.... And the sitting still bit would be a nightmare for my DAs. It's all horses for courses.

There's a lot of good stuff in the German system too and a lot that they teach better than us but it wouldn't suit my family. Oh and while there is much better respect for skilled trades, I don't get the impression that the Hauptschüle have anything like the benefits of the Gymnasien.