Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

I think Tory MPs are seeing their slender "majority" disappearing as bad news piles up on bad news about the NHS. There are only so many times they can "revise the basis" of statistics before the smarter members of the public i.e. the ones that vote start having that nagging feeling of deja vu, as their parent remember the unemployment figures being fiddled every week in the 80s.

Oh yes and there's the pressure of having to repeat a school year if you fail it in Germany.

Rupert Murdoch’s Sky bid provisionally blocked by regulator
21st Century Fox’s bid to take control of the 61% of Sky it does not already own threatens media plurality, says CMA

www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/23/rupert-murdoch-sky-bid-blocked-21st-century-fox-cma

Walking out of the pool today, I noticed the TV (Sky News ?) had Jeremy Hunt and Dara O'Briain together on the sofa.

There's a joke there somewhere about a politician and comedian being on the show, with the punchline being "and who's the other guest".

Anna Soubry isn’t too pleased with boris

Anna Soubry MP
@Anna_Soubry
PM shld have sacked #BorisJohnson for longstanding incompetence & disloyalty. Unless TM acts now Boris will bring her down #Godhelpus

Presumably Boris is only calling for more money for the NHS because he sees his version of Leave being compromised and knows that what people took to be a promise on the bus, was sufficient to swing the vote to Leave.

Presumably Boris is only calling for more money for the NHS because he sees his version of Leave being compromised and knows that what people took to be a promise on the bus, was sufficient to swing the vote to Leave.

Surely Boris' version of Leave was ... Remain ?

I suspect, given that (you'd think) the cabinet have a heads-up on bad news, there's more in the pipeline, and Boris is angling to be able to say Well, yes, cripes, things are a bit choppy right now, but look at the benefits to the NHS ....

Re rape and silence. Surely the counterargument is but she was making so much noise it sounded like she was enjoying it. I appreciate men get raped too btw, but it's a line I've heard before in terms of women.

Theres been a shift since DD was in reception 2 year ago and DS now being in it. She did a lot of learning through play. He is doing a lot more sit down, face the teacher, structured learning albeit carpet rather than desk based. He already finds it boring, other children can't cope. Blame is being placed on inadequate or non existent nursery learning rather than acknowledging 4yos aren't often ready for that.

Johnson. Either save my brexit vision or an out and out leadership bid. Maybe he should concentrate on keeping Brits safe abroad before having a go though probably rightly at someone else.

Cross post with DG
Whatever Johnson's brexit vision he can play the NHS card. Pressure to fund it could sink brexit if they're shown to be incompatible but also he looks like he's not betraying the ultras. A nice whoopsie moment. Though I doubt he thinks that hard.

Boris could have spoken about this months ago. He did not.

He only speaks about it when its the topical issue.

Shit he does not give.

I suspect the narrative shifting to blaming pfi rather than immigrants is probably spooking him.

I think Boris is just chucking out anything he thinks might sound impressive in a desperate bid to be popular again. After his 'lets build a really big bridge!' went down like a shit smoothy, he is now resorting to the NHS. After all it worked before and it's not as if he is in any danger of actually being able to deliver anything. If the NHS gets more funding he can claim the credit and if it doesn't he can blame Hammond, Hunt and May.

He's pulling a Nigel really - anything to generate interest.

Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian
I understand that Brandon Lewis has invited Tory MPs to a "Training Presentation on Instagram" today, open both to MPs who already have an Instagram account and those "looking to set one up".

Yikes.

www.aaup.org/article/new-reality-far-rights-use-cyberharassment-against-academics#.WmcGd0x2uP_
A New Reality? The Far Right's Use of Cyberharassment against Academics

Interesting reading. Applicable to the UK in various other situations and scenarios. Not just far right but also far left doing this.

Peston on Facebook (in last fifteen mins)

“Is Boris preparing to flounce out of the cabinet?”

Not my question, but that of one of his senior ministerial colleagues.

Why could that be?

Exhibit A.
In this morning’s cabinet, he is hijacking Jeremy Hunt’s update about how hospitals are coping with the winter pressures with a headline grabbing and overtly populist demand for the Treasury to find an additional £5bn a year of health spending - which would be a modest down payment on the £18bn (“£350m a week”) he pledged during the EU referendum campaign.
Theresa May won’t be amused. Hunt can’t be sure if Johnson is friend or foe.
But it is the kind of typical Borisian intervention that says to his backbench colleagues “if she’s too timid as PM, look what I would do”.

Exhibit B.
The government is on course for the kind of softish Brexit - membership of some kind of customs union, the kind of regulatory convergence with the EU that should deliver cheaper trade with the EU but constrains the UK’s lawmaking autonomy - that Johnson and Gove fear may be worse (in their terms) than being a member of the EU.
The logic of where parliament’s centre of gravity resides is driving May in that direction.
And if that is where the cabinet arrives, Johnson and Gove will feel thoroughly sick.

Conclusion.
If Johnson feels his best chance of becoming leader would be by first preparing the ground from the back benches, the principled reason for resigning - in order to win back the support of sceptical colleagues - would be because the prime minister is offering the wrong kind of Brexit.

And his personal manifesto pledge would be the late delivery of that £350m for hospitals!

Would Johnson and Gove ever flounce out of the party and jump in bed with Banks and Farage in a new party?

Just pondering...

Dr Phillip Lee MP‏ @DrPhillipLeeMP
Have been asked many times to comment on today’s ‘news’ that a minister might ask for more money for a third minister’s dept. I’ve got lots to say - but now is not the time to say it. I’m getting on with my own job - as should others! #nhs

From the Standard

Would Johnson and Gove ever flounce out of the party and jump in bed with Banks and Farage in a new party?

Now that's an interesting thought. I could see Johnson considering the idea if he was flattered enough and it became clear he was no longer popular in the Conservatives. It's hard to image Farage and Johnson both in the same party though. They would surely both insist on being leader!

Given that the years budget is already decided, this is bunfight material in the making ... who will lose out so Boris can get his way ?

Would Johnson and Gove ever flounce out of the party and jump in bed with Banks and Farage in a new party?

Which is what should really have happened 25 years ago ... the "bastards" should have either left the mainstream Conservatives (who are still the Remainers) or Remainers should have left and formed a new party.

Of course it never happened, as the UKs FPTP system punishes anyone who doesn't come first.

The record, over the decades, of what happens to even prominent MPs who join / form small parties would put off anyone who wants to stay an MP.

Has Boris blown his chance of being PM by not standing when May did? I am sure that he would have beaten her then.

Sam Coates Times‏Verified account
@SamCoatesTimes
Tricky cabinet for Boris Johnson by the sounds of things. A “large number” of cabinet said cabinet discussions shd be kept private. The PM said she would work on NHS funding with health sec and chancellor (not For Sec). PM made clear NHS funding more complicated than just ££
Number 10 says there will be a spending review “early next year”, which strongly suggests she has turned down Johnson request for more money from March 2019. The “Brexit dividend” was always going to be spent on priorities such as NHS, schools and housing, the PM told cabinet.
No10 also say no cabinet figure mentioned a “specific figure” for how much money shd go to the NHS. Did Boris bottle mentioning the £100m pw / £5bn py
PM tells cabinet that more money for NHS shd come alongside progress on NHS efficiency, value for money and reform of the social care system.

Sounds like Boris Johnson had already had an earful from cabinet colleagues by the time he spoke at cabinet. He was called in the middle-to-end of the discussion. Didn’t mention £100m pw. Most colleagues complained about briefing to newspapers. Liam Fox spoke first after Hunt
At a guess, I’d say Number 10 put together an operation to put down Boris in the cabinet meeting, lining up colleagues to criticise him before he spoke.
If this is what they did has an ominous feel about it...
Asked if today’s cabinet meeting was a humiliation for Boris, one observer said: “pretty much”. They added: “Let’s just say he didn’t have much support”

Further updates on cabinet this morning paints different picture: interventions by Michael Gove, Chris Graying and Jeremy Hunt were seen (by some) as helpful to Johnson. Lots of anger at Johnson allies briefing op BUT no disagreement that brexit dividend should be used for NHS

Seb Dance MEP
‏*@SebDance*
PM can’t help herself. There’ll be no money saved by Brexit - zero, zilch.

It will cost us in lost revenue & growth.

But because her Foreign Sec says there will be (and thereby threatens her job) she briefs the money saved will be spent on NHS.

It’s a government of deceit.

Dr Lauren Gavaghan #NHSLove
‏*@DancingTheMind*
Boris Johnson is just loud noise.

Focus on the quiet ones.

Jeremy Hunt & Simon Stevens are currently restructuring the NHS without parliamentary scrutiny or public consultation.

Chaos is the perfect environment for pushing through big change while no one notices.

Would Johnson and Gove ever flounce out of the party and jump in bed with Banks and Farage in a new party?

No. It takes a lot of time and effort to build up support for a new party from scratch within the FPTP system, so I doubt we'll see any new parties while that prevails. Much easier to gain control of a mainstream party and capitalise on all the inertia / latent support that comes with it. Same reason why the Labour 'moderates' aren't going anywhere.