Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Some really well-thought-through Leaver comments below the line on this article.

www.kentonline.co.uk/canterbury/news/anti-brexit-protest-takes-to-the-158825

I especially like this one:

"Britain is allready split by Brexit and us Leavers won. It dont matter what happens. all this nonsence like money going down and businesses leaving dont matter. foriegn cmpanys can leave our proud country. take remoaners with them.

"its about time we new who was for Britain. we need illeagales to where badges to show who they are. we need traitors who dont love there country to have to where badges to now who they are as well. lets just arrest troubelmakers who want to go against a DEMOCRATIC REFEREENDUM!"

So come on and 'fess up. It was a spoof by one of us threadsters, wasn't it?

illeagales have to wear badges to show who they are Surely if you know who they are well enough to give them a badge, then you know who they are well enough to deport them!

That must be a spoof. If it isn't, then I vote for Trump and Kim to nuke us all - because the world is broken and we need to start again with just the cockroaches.

unless he means actual ill eagles. Are we taking the health of our eagle population seriously enough?

Would that fanatical Leaver be satisfied with " badges", or do they really want yellow stars ?

On furrin first, maybe Remoaners and any other opposition next

That is the terrifying side of real intolerance and we've seen that before.

has anyone checked on don henley recently? not sure hes all that pro britain, though probably not anti it either 😁

I actually though New Labour was as good as we are likely to get, in the very selfish me-me society that grew out of the 80s.

However, Blair personally misleading the public and Parliament, to go to war, is about as morally wrong an act as a PM in a democratic country can commit.
That has poisoned the record of all the good that Labour did under Blair

• and he did actually win 3 GEs

Purity in opposition and STILL savaging Blair just looks pathetic, while the Tories rule in govt after govt

BUT
Corbyn won nearly 60% of the members' vote
Labour party members hadn't change their minds, so the 2nd contest was a pointless gift to a Tory govt

Same as with a 2nd referendum:
Yes, people should always be allowed to change their minds
BUT
A 2nd vote is pointless when opinion has NOT changed

Instead of campaigning for a 2nd vote, FIRST concentrate on changing minds so that a 2nd vote has a point

Current ukip leader loses no confidence vote

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42767657?ocid=socialflow_twitter&ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbcnews&ns_source=twitter

Otherwise known as your weekly reminder ukip has a leader.

I am starting to think UKIP has a timeshare policy on being party leader. You get a certain amount of time each year depending on the size of your membership fee.

I'd put money on Farage being leader again - he hates not being the centre of attention.

Only this morning the fail was reporting farage may come back with ukip 2.0. I won't link for obvious reasons. To put pressure on perhaps?

I think Farage is smart enough to realise that Ukip as an outfit is moribund.

I think Farage is smart enough to realise that Ukip as an outfit is moribund.

I think the UKIP experiment itself is moribund. No amount of wailing, teeth gnashing and blubbery interviews claiming "Brexit is being betrayed" will ever mobilise the amount of votes the UKIP managed back in the day. Quite aside from the demographics of losing the elder end of your core vote, most previous UKIPers either think Brexit has happened, or (like shy Tories) are probably a little less gung-ho, now (bad) things have started to happen.

To be honest, in the Sherlock Holmes vein, one of the more intriguing things about the Carillion crash is the mysterious absence of anyone to blame it on the EU. You'd have thought if UKIP had more brain cells than members, it would have leapt at the chance to blame the EU for something while diverting attention from their own predicament. I'm starting to suspect that as a whole, UKIP aren't that bright.

Oh just what we need, Farrago all over the front pages again...

Kirsty Hughes @ kirstys_hughes
Brexit transition: on Monday 29th Jan, EU27 shd agree transition guidelines so talks on transition can start with the UK. Broad agreement exists that transition will be under all existing EU rules and laws. But this leaves plenty of difficult issues. Thread 1/10
First, how long will transition be? The Commission has suggested end 2020 – also the end of EU financial framework. UK can ask for longer but then it will have to pay more (which UK knows) & EU will argue UK no longer benefits from its current rebate in calculating how much 2/10
Could transition be extended? EU seem to think it could be extended by 1-2 years without hitting the legal problem that A50 can’t be used to agree a long term trade deal. Will this be clearly set out in the deal? May not be. 3/10
EU & UK have had initial discussions on existing trade deals & other international agreements that should end for UK on 29/3/19. EU suggests UK cd still be part of these: will third countries be ‘content’/pragmatic on that leaving tough new negotiations for after transition? 4/10
Will Gibraltar be part of transition if UK refuses to agree a new deal on joint sovereignty w Spain? UK will argue it’s a status quo transition, as with the 3rd country trade deals but this is high politics not logic so unclear how this will be resolved. 5/10
EU27 will clearly demand full respect of freedom of movement of people in transition and full rights/’settled status’ for those who come until the end of transition (whenever that is). UK will resist but has little bargaining power on this. 6/10
EU27 will offer some consultation on fishing quotas but that's all. UK will not be able to have transition in all EU areas except fishing. UK won’t be happy but EU will not back down: ‘no access to markets without access to fishing water’. 7/10
Will there be legal draft or certainty on transition by March? No. The UK wants to get as far as it can by March (before talks turn to trade) but no expectation of a legal draft by then – and certainty only once there’s an overall ratified deal. 8/10
Cd transition talks be disrupted if there are big disagreements over putting the phase 1 Brexit deal from December into legal form? Possibly, if it gets difficult on pinning down the N Ireland commitments – but the real rows on that shd come in the trade talks not transition 9/10
Cd clarity on future trade framework make transition details less important? Unlikely. Future framework may be vague, heavy lifting on trade deal will come later & UK isn’t heading to a ‘soft’ Brexit, even if May asks for ‘high alignment’ model (& EU isn’t offering one)10/10
Finally, once UK is out of EU and in transition, it will have lost much of its bargaining power. It won’t be able to revoke A50 & stay in the EU – then it cd only apply to rejoin EU, wd lose many of its current opt-outs. Future cliff-edge at end of transition will loom very large

DG actually the eu does have rules on the extent of government borrowing, and PFI and similar schemes are ways to borrow without borrowing, which I think was the excuse Brown used to justify them. But is probably isn’t the kind of explanation that anti-Europe privatisation diehards are looking for.

UKIP is in dead parrot mode.

Farage might head that new party Arron Banks has talked about starting
but maybe Banks wants to be leader openly, instead of being the power behind the throne / toilet

"I'm starting to suspect that as a whole, UKIP aren't that bright."

BiglyBadgers Sun 21-Jan-18 17:40:47
I am starting to think UKIP has a timeshare policy on being party leader. You get a certain amount of time each year depending on the size of your membership fee

It's more like musical chairs.

Farage might need to protection of being a political party leader that attracts enough attention to prevent him from being extradited yet though.

Being leader even of a dead parrot might be helpful and one of the few options he has left seeing as no one is as interested in him as they were.

amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/22/uk-home-office-tells-stateless-man-go-home?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true
UK Home Office tells stateless man: go home

He has even tried to return voluntarily only to be told he can't because he has no papers so therefore can't. Not just once, but twice.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/22/carillion-privatisation-myth-councils-pfi-contracts
It’s not just Carillion. The whole privatisation myth has been exposed

well what a surprise.

I've mentioned it way back, that this not immigrants were the major issue about why cuts were made.

funny how the shit is now hitting the fan.

My local council, Tory led, because of two 'Independents', is bringing some services back in house, after trumpetting about 'cost savings of outsourcing' five years ago.

Re the 'It will cost you' - in my old firm, rumour had it that if a person wished to move desks it incurred a charge of £300 (because the PCs had specialist software packages on them, not just Word and Excel). What happened? People wishing to move just switched their computer off themselves, unplugged it, and moved across. Cost? An hour or so of their time - about a tenth of the cost.

On the same "private good, public bad" theme, this cartoon says it all.

www.buzzfeed.com/emilydugan/people-are-facing-prison-sentences-without-access-to-a?utm_term=.ruwnG9PK8o#.roOnX1P0NM
There's Been A Huge Increase In People Being Denied A Lawyer Because Of A "Dehumanised" Test
More people are being refused a legal aid lawyer in criminal cases even though they qualify for financial help, figures obtained under a freedom of information request by BuzzFeed News have revealed.

Last year the London Criminal Courts Solicitors’ Association sent a document detailing 19 serious cases turned down for legal aid on IOJ grounds. In three, the defendants ended up with long prison sentences. In 13 of the cases, they were later given legal aid after the decision was appealed, showing it was wrongly assessed by the LAA.

and

BuzzFeed News revealed last month the rise in people facing criminal charges without a lawyer. A survey of magistrates found that the proportion of people appearing before them without a lawyer had risen by a quarter in three years.

BuzzFeed News revealed last month the rise in people facing criminal charges without a lawyer. A survey of magistrates found that the proportion of people appearing before them without a lawyer had risen by a quarter in three years.

(rings bell)

www.theguardian.com/law/2017/oct/13/senior-judge-warns-over-shaming-impact-of-legal-aid-cuts

One of the most senior family court judges has warned about the impact of legal aid cuts and said it was “shaming” to preside over cases in which individuals are forced to represent themselves.

Speaking at a ceremony to mark his retirement, Mr Justice Bodey explained how he sometimes had to help litigants in person by cross-examining witnesses on their behalf.

His comments highlight dismay among the judiciary about the Ministry of Justice’s slow progress towards reviewing the effect of the 2012 Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders (Laspo) Act.

(contd)

conveniently, compensation for wrongful conviction was scrapped first ... (ask Barry George).

On 11 May 2011, the Supreme Court defined "miscarriage of justice" as evidence "so undermined that no conviction could possibly be based upon it".

I'll leave others to spot the circular reasoning there.