Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/01/18/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-brexit-endgame-in-five
Everything you need to know about the Brexit endgame in five minutes

Why do we need a bridge to france when no one is willing to stump up for transport in the North?

I don't think people are pining for the good old days - it's more about seeing a once thriving town hitting the doldrums - literally shop after shop empty - once decent shops replaced by vape shops, charity shops, pound shops A major jewellery shop that originated in Bolton and operated for over a 100 years shut down a few months ago whilst funnily enough the offshoots in York and Guildford remained open. Funny that ! An equally longstanding department store also closed recently to be replaced by nothing ! So less to do with brexit and more about an inadequate and unproactive labour (unfortunately) council. Things are that bad that there was a recent lengthy discussion about the town in the guardian - read it and see what it's like for some of us the north as Bolton is not a isolated example of this !

Thanks for the Dunt link RTB. My favourite bit is:

I thought May and David Davis said the trade deal would be ready to go by the time we left in 2019?

Yes, it turns out they were wrong about that. Contain your surprise.

I'm not convinced that if Labour had a stronger Remain position in the June 17 election that they would have won as most Labour constituencies voted to Leave. Think unless there is a massive shift in public opinion Labour will not shift to a strong Remain stance.

So we're back to square one.

Where does someone who is fundamentally opposed to Brexit cast their vote ? Because as we are seeing Tory and Labour are quite happy to ignore them completely.

And what does it say about where we are that people who have voted in every single election going (back to voting for my ILEA representative in 1984) are coming to the conclusion they may not have anyone to vote for ? Especially if they are female, with all the extra historical significance of their vote.

I can almost picture a cartoon book villain, twirling his ludicrous sinister moustache, as his sidekick panics ...

"But Mr. Evil, the proles are getting the vote ! They'll destroy us !"

"Don't worry, Lickspittle. We'll neuter the plebs by ensuring there's no one to represent them"

"Genius Mr. Evil."

"You're too kind."

I think someone who is fundamentally opposed to Brexit would vote Lib Dem, SNP, perhaps Green. I was suprised that the Lib Dems didn't do better in June. When voting in a general election so many things come into play that unless opposing Brexit is your absolute number one priority then most people will look at other issues and vote for the party that represents the majority of their views rather than just Brexit.

Not necessarily, Violet.

I'm fundamentally opposed to Brexit. In our area, the first past the post electoral system means there is a two-horse race: Conservative and Labour. It's fairly close, too. The effect of this is that people will tend to vote for one of those two, in an approximation of their wishes, with a vote for anyone else being, essentially, a non-vote in anything but a Referendum.

Another material effect is that there is little point in funding or resources by any party other than the Conservatives and Labour being directed towards our area in any election. And people tend to join and get involved in one of the two main parties - there isn't that much point in joining another party, it won't effect much.

That is the state of play across most of the country.

With the Lib Dems, for example, having fewer members, thus fewer resources, thus less impact on parliament, thus attracting fewer political donations, you can see how that has a circular effect.

For all my Remain fundamentalism - and I really am a Remain fundamentalist - there really would be no point at all in voting Lib Dem. It would essentially give my vote to the Conservatives - and I really don't want to do that.

There really isn't any way for Remainers to truly express ourselves politically at the moment. I think FPTP has had a major impact on that.

It makes me quite cross when people say: "People don't really care about Remain. If they did, the Lib Dems would have done much better."

It's not that simple. There is a huge inertia built into the effects of the FPTP system that make it tricky to do something as simple as vote for the LibDems just because of Remain.

With the Lib Dems, for example, having fewer members, thus fewer resources, thus less impact on parliament, thus attracting fewer political donations, you can see how that has a circular effect.

Some of what you say is true, but the Lib Dems have far more members than the Tories, whose actual membership is now very small (about 70k I believe).

I think someone who is fundamentally opposed to Brexit would vote Lib Dem, SNP, perhaps Green

With the exception of SNP (not being in Scotland) over the past 30 odd years I have voted for every mian party on the ballot at some time or other.

When DS was asking about voting, many years ago, he poleaxed me by simply asking: "And what good did it do, Dad ? What difference did it actually make ?".

I do get where you are coming from thecatfromjapan but you've also highlighted what I was trying to say in that there are issues/priorities other than Brexit that come into play such as voting to prevent who you least support getting in.

I included SNP as I know there are Scottish remainers on this thread who would also read my comment.

Least support out of a limited set of options.

I couldn't bring myself to vote for Kate Hoey, even if there was a chance of a Conservative landslide (though that would not happen in her constituency).

Sorry if I'm going on about it.

My Twitter feed is full of tweets and re-tweets from accounts stating: "I voted Remain but I'd rather Brexit with Corbyn than Remain with anyone else."

It feels like a bizarre attempt at gaslighting.

Any discussion of Labours stance - whatever it is - is all moot until there's an election anyway ...

I think it's becoming clear that the Theresa May strategy is actually nothing to do with Brexit, and everything to do with staving off an election. In fact (and this is what must be quietly killing the hard-Brexiteers) I'd suggest that Brexit is an irrelevance to the current government except where it strays into the danger of an election being triggered.

Following RTBs link upthread, it explains the putting-off that's been highlighted.

if (and it's only supposition) that view is applied to the current situation, it does raise the question of why the people in charge of Theresa May believe that delaying the election, rather than hastening it, will bear fruit ??????? Are they privy to something as yet not public ? Are they deluded ?

You're not going on about it thecatfromjapan. It's what this thread is for.

DGRossetti - your ds' comment reminds me of Ken Livingstone's statemeent, ^"If voting changed anything, they'd abolish it" and title of one of his books

....they've not so much abolished it, but Labour themselves have made it pointless, by not doing their job as Opposition.

Violetparis - as an SNP voting, Scottish Remainer, I appreciated you including them in your list!

I've bigged up KLs book many times on this thread. In my opinion it's incredibly insightful.

In a way, it's actually spot on.

To anyone trying to understand May's strategy:

There is no issue of principle more important to the Tory Party than the principle that there should be a Tory Government

• and that the super-rich donors get their payoff

If there is another early GE, there is a significant chance they lose power and their bogeyman Corbyn gets in
he would probably e.g.

• reverse some lucrative privatisation rackets
• renationalise
• undo any retrospective tax bungs to wealthy Brexit donors, because they are weathy, not that he cares aiut Brexit

If May delays long enough, some event might yet save the Tory party, e.g.

• Corbyn could drop dead and she can call the GE while they are leaderless.
• Or they could split into to 2 parties
• She finds ways to disenfranchise young voters
• The E27 might allow Brexit unicorn eggs
• The horse / unicorn might learn to sing ....

At least that was one of his decent statements pretty 😂

Thanks to these threads encouraging me to actually get out there and do something, I spent last night in the Palace of Westminster. Well until the cops kicked us out which isn't as interesting a story in reality but I'm purposely letting it sound cool

Found this on the 48s Facebook page, looks like it's come from hignfy. Though I'd share a laugh.

Or of course she could do a Thatcher and blunder into a war that wins her the GE in a burst of patriotic blindness

Hashi

Dh and I often quote that statement of Livingstone's too. Isn't that in itself an indictment of UK politics?

myrnafoy just out of interest , how does what has happened to your town translate to Brexit ? do locals blame the EU for it or do they blame the government or local council ?

I lived in Bolton (or rather Egerton) over 20 years ago. It had a decent shopping centre back then and a good market hall can't remember what it was called I didn't feel the need to go into Manchester every weekend

I worked in Darwen though and didn't have kids, so didn't really get a feel for what the council was like.