Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

[RedToothBrush]

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

Trending on twitter #ILuvEUCos

Some really nice messages on that twitter page, woman. There's real depth of feeling about leaving the EU. And I sense it's growing.

It's cheery, isn't it Hester. And very oddly, just as #ILuvEUCos got to number 2 in the trendy charts, Twitter has gone down.

DG All the Muslims I know take selfies and family photos like everyone else
My Muslim colleague keeps proudly showing photos of his 2 little DDs )
Islam only forbids pictures of god or Mohammed

This is lovely.

That "24 hours to an EU super army" (over here, over paid, over sexed??) poster is shocking. It should be illegal to peddle outright lies designed to whip up public outrage.

Wonder if UK Column (who produced it) are as concerned about all the remaining US military bases in the UK?

Speaking of Farage

Jon Swaine
@jonswaine
Glenn Simpson to House Intel Committee: Nigel Farage allegedly gave Julian Assange a thumb drive containing data and visited him more often than is widely known

Meanwhile, genuine news …

Brexit is worsening the NHS nurses crisis

Last year, 3,985 E27 nurses left the NHS, vs 2,791 who joined.
So about 1,200 net loss.

By contrast, in the last full year before the 2016 referendum,
2,416 nurses quit the NHS, while 5,977 joined
about 3,560 net gain

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jan/17/nhs-england-hospital-staffing-one-in-10-nurses-quit-each-year

Canadian trade negotiator Christophe Bondy to HoC Brexit Committee

with a great analogy why
creating CETA (which took several years) is so much easier than a UK-EU FTA to replaces UK membership of the Single Market:

Hard Brexit 'like blowing up a bridge', Canada warns UK

data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/exiting-the-european-union-committee/the-progress-of-the-uks-negotiations-on-eu-withdrawal/oral/77049.pdf

“A free trade agreement is like two parties on either side of river and they are considering building a bridge across that river because they believe it will be in their economic benefit – and that is what CETA does,”
…
“What the UK situation with the EU right now is that that bridge has been there for 45 years.
Communities have been built up on either side of it.
There are buildings on the bridge.

“And you are deciding what part of it you want to blow up without bankrupting yourself.
It is an issue of what part of it you are going to keep if you can.”

bigchoc I don’t know if you meant that Farage meeting with Assange more than was thought isn’t news because the general relationship was already known. I’d agree it’s hardly a bombshell but having this information being collected by the person who ran fusion gps, the company that produced the Steele
Dossier detailing trump’s Russian connections and liability, and then being revealed in his testimony to the us house intelligence committee and the entire testimony transcript now being published for everyone to see is noteworthy? (Apologies if that isn’t what you meant!)

No worries, pain, I meant the "news" about the EU army before your post
If you check timing, my post was 1 minute after yours, hence I started typing before you posted

Whoops sorry, should have spotted that

Sorry for falsely impugning your good name!

Britain Elects
‏***@britainelects*
Downhall & Rawreth (Rochford) result:

LDEM: 77.0% (+16.6)
CON: 23.0% (+6.4)

Liberal Democrat HOLD.

No Labour (-7.9) and 'Rochford District Residents' (-15.2) as prev.

Britain Elects
‏***@britainelects*

Hulton (Bolton) result:

CON: 49.4% (+16.7)
LAB: 40.1% (+3.0)
UKIP: 6.5% (-18.0)
LDEM: 2.3% (-0.2)
GRN: 1.8% (-1.5)

Conservative GAIN Hulton (Bolton) from Labour.

Britain Elects
‏***@britainelects*
Throop & Muscliff (Bournemouth) result:

IND (Wilson): 31.3% (+31.3)
CON: 30.0% (+8.2)
LAB: 23.6% (+15.8)
IND (Lucas): 6.9% (+6.9)
LDEM: 6.3% (+6.3)
GRN: 1.9% (-5.0)

Independent GAIN from Independent.
No other Ind(s) (-52.0) and UKIP (-11.5) as prev.

OMG, This takes the biscuit: McVitie’s Digestives are shrinking

To be exact, probably there'll be fewer biscuits per pack, rather than smaller biscuits

They are "shrinking the size of a 500g pack of Digestives to 400g as it adapts to higher ingredient costs and the fall in the value of the pound"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/this-takes-the-biscuit-mcvitie-s-digestives-are-shrinking-s7rqkwm3v?utmsource=newsletter&utmmcampaign=newsletter119&utmmmedium=email&utmcontent=1199January%2019,%202018&CMP=TNLEmail11891882804201_119

We at least have progress in some areas, for this happy event - congratulations to Jacinda:

New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern reveals she is pregnant

www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/i-m-pregnant-reveals-new-zealand-s-pm-jacinda-ardern-hbkprjl53

Matthew O'Toole‏
@MatthewOToole2
Notable that as UK politics focuses on the young its leaders are so old. NZ leader is having her first baby while 3 main UK party leaders are collectively (200+) older than New Zealand the country.

Faisal Islam
‏*@faisalislam*
Gaping hole in the market for an ambitious young British politician with ideas & vision, but who? Which party?

Gaping hole in the market for an ambitious young British politician with ideas & vision, but who? Which party?

I'm going to hazard a guess and suggest that to the upcoming generation the distinction of Tory/Labour will be pretty meaningless. A little like the original difference between Tory and Whig - who even knows what they were these days ?

I wonder what will cause a fractureline in the New World Order ? The clear blue water ? Are the days of Capital and Labour - at least as practised by Conservative and Labour parties - slipping away ?

These - and other genuine questions - will not be answered at Finsbury Park Weightwatchers

^Hulton (Bolton) result:

CON: 49.4% (+16.7)
LAB: 40.1% (+3.0)^

Probably too small a sample to be meaningful, given local election turnout, but suggests that Labour's brexit stance is not really having the desired results when it comes to winning back voters from UKIP.

but suggests that Labour's brexit stance is not really having the desired results when it comes to winning back voters from UKIP

Would help if we knew where that stance would go. If Labour back Brexit, I'll vote elsewhere.

I think Labour's Brexit stance is probably losing them voters. Along with all the momentum/identity politics shit. They need to get a grip, they should be battering the Tories at the moment.

Yes, if Labour had had party unity and a clear Remain (or Soft Brexit) manifesto, they might have walked last year's election. But maybe they didn't want that?

So human rights can't find the consensus but this is fine

MPs on both sides back tax break for referendum campaign donors
Amendment to finance bill will see millionaires such as Arron Banks exempted from tax on Brexit donations

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/19/mps-on-both-sides-back-tax-break-for-referendum-campaign-donors

[an excerpt]

Brexit-backing MPs as well as counterparts from the remain campaign have backed a controversial measure to extend a tax break to referendum campaign donors, after several billionaire donors received large demands from HMRC.

The amendment to the finance bill has been backed by prominent leave campaigners Charlie Elphicke, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Iain Duncan Smith, as well as Labour MPs and remain supporters Alison McGovern and Caroline Flint.

It would extend a tax exemption for political parties to referendum campaigns - backdating it to cover the EU referendum.

Last month it was revealed that several prominent leave campaigners who donated large sums to the Brexit campaigns during the 2016 referendum received substantial tax demands from HMRC.

They included former Ukip donor Arron Banks, who donated £8.1m to his Leave.EU campaign group, and former Conservative party co-chair Peter Cruddas, worth a reported £750m, who gave £900,000 to Vote Leave.

Prominent leave campaign donors bore the brunt of the demands more than remain supporters, because the large donations to the leave campaign were more likely to come from wealthy individuals or businessmen, not listed companies.

HMRC’s demands hinge on inheritance tax rules that require tax to be paid upfront on large gifts. Party political donations, as well as donations to charities, are usually exempt, but HMRC has said that does not apply to individuals who donated to the referendum campaign.

HMRC said it had applied the law equally across all donors, but senior UK cabinet ministers Boris Johnson and Michael Gove expressed concerns about the demands.

Others backing the amendment, which could also be backdated to apply to the Scottish referendum and the AV referendum, include Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael and Brexit-supporting Labour MP Kate Hoey. Craig Mackinlay, the MP facing prosecution for alleged breaches of campaign finance rules, has also backed the amendment.

A former remain campaign source said: “It’s outrageous to see allies of Open Britain and Aaron Banks teaming up to give tax breaks to rich people. It’s one thing to say the rules should be changed in the future; it’s quite another to try to fix the system retrospectively.

“Parliament will see through this blatant attempt to take money away from overstretched public services and hand it over to wealthy donors.”

backdating it to cover the EU referendum.

Ah, retrospective legislation (generally a no-no in Human Rights).

Also used to deny compensation to those whose benefits were unlawfully stopped under Workfare.

Just wait until we start seeing peoples benefits retrospectively reduced.

As regards the council election in Hulton, I don't actually think it has much to do with Labour's unclear stance on brexit. The town has had a chronically incompetent Labour council for many years and been involved in some financially suspect dealings as reported in the local press - you only have to visit the town centre to observe the massive decline in its fortunes. Many derelict buildings, one of the highest rates of vacant shops in the country 1 in 4 I think - it's a truly depressing place - so probably more a vote about challenging a poorly functioning council.

Many derelict buildings, one of the highest rates of vacant shops in the country

But that's the future. If anyone is pining for the old days of packed High Streets, with loads of shops, each with lots of stock, and assistants to help then you are just going to be disappointed.

(It's a little akin to those shysters at Gartner promising that PC sales are going to recover back to the "good old days". They won't. Ever.)

I wonder how long after the motor car was on the roads of the UK it was before people finally realised that the horse and cart, farriers, saddlers, stables, breeders, trainers, blacksmiths were never coming back like "the old days" ?