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Brexit

Westminstenders: Stuck in the twilightzone

956 replies

RedToothBrush · 14/01/2018 23:37

Just want to remind everyone if what really matters and what the priority if Theresa May is.

May isn't interested in a new referendum. There is barely time to hold one, and anyone remotely interested in one, isn't named Theresa May. Forget it. Its not happening.

Nor are Brexit talks the most important thing. Whilst Jeremy Corbyn seems finally to be playing with some sort if EEA type solution he's not the one named Theresa May. If she doesn't want one, then it won't happen.

May does seem to favour something along these lines but she has to sell it to her party. If she ends up relying on the support of Labour to push it through against what her party want, then that doesn't end well for her or her party. So Corbyn seeming to squeeze her here isn't necessarily a good thing. It could push her to no deal.

Why?

Cos petty party politics.

THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT THING, and don't forget this, is the EU withdrawal Bill. As it stands, May has to concentrate her efforts on this. If it doesn't pass by the art 50 deadline then we have legal chaos. May isn't big on the courts, but I'm not sure she would want that situation either. It would be even more unthinkable than queues at Dover coupled with food shortages.

If it doesn't pass, and the Lords will do all they can to delay and obstruct as long as they can, May's only option is to beg for an art 50 extension. Which the EU might not be inclined to give. Which might leave us in a situation where our only option is to revoke a50.

The only predictable thing, is this will be last minute brinkmanship.

All the talk of a second ref is a distraction. Talk of Labour's position at this point, is all about positioning for the next election and not about Brexit at all.

So try to keep your eyes on what really matters and what battles are May's big ones and which are merely side shows.

I wonder who Side Show Bob will turn out to be.

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Thread gallery
35
TheElementsSong · 19/01/2018 20:29

Hashi Grin

mathanxiety · 20/01/2018 06:03

Amendment to finance bill will see millionaires such as Arron Banks exempted from tax on Brexit donations

This is 'Citizens United' in all but name.
The UK is now officially a kleptocracy.

Peregrina · 20/01/2018 07:58

Amendment to finance bill will see millionaires such as Arron Banks exempted from tax on Brexit donations

How does Theresa May reconcile this with her supposed concern for those 'Just about Managing'? I admit, we haven't heard much about them lately. No Tory votes in them, I have to assume.

lalalonglegs · 20/01/2018 09:17

It is getting more and more blatant that the majority of the Tories/Brexiteers could not give a shiny shit about the JAMs. Nick Robinson just interviewed Nicki Morgan and JRM on Today after Macron said that there would be no automatic passporting for the financial sector post-Brexit: Morgan says that this is problematic, the City alone raises £72b in taxes, "that's a lot of schools and hospitals"; JRM jaws on about how great it will be to get rid of regulations and make the City more profitable for investors. There isn't even a pretence that it will help people outside of the wealthy cabal he associates with.

BigChocFrenzy · 20/01/2018 10:26

"Getting rid of financial regulation" was what caused the 2008 crash

especially the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act in the US, which had been put in place in 1933, after the Depression and bank failures then.
But there were other regs abolished too in the US, UK and imternationally.

Obama passed regulations to reduce the risk of another crash, but Trump has repealed some already and will repeal them all

  • the oligarch donors tolerate all Trump's craziness & outright fascism
because their people in his administration are quietly slashing taxes for the wealthy, abolishing regulations that even slightly hinder oligarchs looting yet more wealth from the country

Similar in the UK: a handful of oligarchs ensuring they get even richer
which is why the govt actions / inactions look so odd - but they aren't if you stand back and ask "Cui Bono ?"

Ordinary people paid for the 2008 crash, hence why the super-wealthy have no fear of the repeat

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/01/2018 10:48

Trump and May to meet for talks in Davos after ‘special relationship’ tested

www.heraldscotland.com/news/15885436.Trump_and_May_to_meet_for_talks_in_Davos_after____special_relationship____tested/

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/01/2018 10:49

Voters should be able to change their minds on referendums, says Speaker

John Bercow says people on the losing side do not have to accept their case is lost for ever

amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/20/voters-should-be-able-to-change-their-minds-on-referendums-says-speaker?__twitter_impression=true

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 20/01/2018 10:58

For all the talk of the bridge yesterday, apparently Eurostar has said it’ll be difficult to continue operating if leaving the customs union happens (which is not surprising and I think was mentioned upthread). Might this be why the bridge has been mooted?

Matthew Holehouse
@mattholehouse
A bridge is probably quite a good idea, when you consider what Brexit might do to Eurotunnel's business model
Eurostar: "should the UK leave the customs union... these new customs obligations would be very difficult to put in place in the restricted space available in stations, and would make our current cargo business (Eurodespatch) economically unviable."
"Divergence between UK and EU rules... would lead to significant cost and complexity for our business. Depending on the nature of any differences between systems, it may not be possible to operate either from an economic or practical standpoint."
"Any re-establishment of strong visa and immigration obligations would also create congestion in our already space-limited stations, lengthen journey times and ultimately threaten the Eurostar service as it is known."
"As a UK-headquartered company, would we be able to continue to benefit from the provisions of Directive 2012/34 on the single European railway area.. or would a 'third country’ approach be adopted? This could affect our competitiveness and the economics of our operation."
"Eurostar operates out of highly capacity-constrained stations There is no capacity at these locations to remodel the use of space in order to process UK and EU separately and/or to process EU citizens at the border."
"Our fixed costs are already very high, and in many instances the business case is marginal. Any additional cost would only add to these costs and risks either raising prices for passengers or, if the market cannot bear such increases, making the operation unsustainable."

I can’t find where he’s getting these quotes from Eurostar though, so can’t link to an original source

BigChocFrenzy · 20/01/2018 11:17

pain That quote comes from Eurostar's written submission to the
HoL Brexit Sub-Committtee "Brexit: future trade between the UK and the EU"

It's a standard Committee written format, with questions that each business answers with their own specifics

http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/eu-internal-market-subcommittee/brexit-future-trade-between-the-uk-and-the-eu-in-services/written/43395.html

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 11:21

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/92180/triumphant-diane-abbott-declares-no-one-can-now-remember
Triumphant Diane Abbott declares: 'No one can now remember that they supported Tony Blair'

Speaking to Prospect magazine, Ms Abbott - a key ally of the Labour leader - said Mr Blair’s supporters had been cowed by the recent success of Labour’s left.

“Even Blairites don’t call themselves Blairites," she said. "It’s one of those things - no one can now remember that they supported Tony Blair.

There are some really creepy things in this narrative. History is being rewritten and people are being told how to think and deny their own history out of fear.

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DGRossetti · 20/01/2018 11:23

A bridge is probably quite a good idea, when you consider what Brexit might do to Eurotunnel's business model

A student of history - like Boris - should know where the previous studies on channel bridges are stored, and what they say. Might have prevented the piss-taking we saw yesterday.

I've only seen the headlines, but is Macron playing the EU version of Boris now ? I see he's saying the UK can have a special deal.

Is he trolling us ?

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 11:27

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/01/19/theresa-may-hints-would-now-vote-stay-eu-tells-french-proud/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
Theresa May hints she would now vote to stay in the EU

And

inews.co.uk/news/politics/dups-1-billion-already-spent-without-parliamentary-authorisation/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
DUP’s £1 billion is already being spent – but without any Parliamentary authorisation

Remember
In September the Government’s lawyers had told Gina Miller, who had challenged the basis of the DUP deal, that “additional payments contemplated by the agreement will be authorised by parliament”.

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RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 11:36

Eurosluggard @eurosluggard
BBC News deliberately amplifies May govt’s pro-Brexit spin re Macron visit, by misrepresenting his message that extent of UK’s access to Single Market depends on willingness to accept obligations. How is hiding reality fulfilling public-service obligation?
Sky News: ‘Be my guest’ was a simple message delivered in clear English by Emmanuel Macron at Sandhurst. The full access that the UK wants for financial services is available, but only as part of membership of the EU or EEA.

BBC News: Macron says ‘special’ UK deal is possible.

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BiglyBadgers · 20/01/2018 11:40

There are some really creepy things in this narrative. History is being rewritten and people are being told how to think and deny their own history out of fear.

I don't see this at all. I read it as a classic case of people revising their opinions once they realise they are no longer on the winning side. Like nobody will now admit they supported the Iraq war despite the fact that at the time many people did.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 11:54

www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-politics-42735945?__twitter_impression=true
Labour's candidates for general election target seats revealed

The LD vote share at previous elections for some of these is noteworthy.

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Tanith · 20/01/2018 11:56

Boris and his bloody bridges! 🙄

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 12:04

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-polarisation-of-party-supporters-since-2015/
The polarisation of party supporters since 2015 and the problem of the ’empty centre’ – in maps

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BiglyBadgers · 20/01/2018 13:38

Sinn Féin to be led by a woman for the first time in its modern history
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jan/20/sinn-fein-to-be-led-by-a-woman-mary-lou-mcdonald-for-the-first-time-in-its-modern-history

Remains to be seen how much this will change anything in NI, but worth keeping an eye on I think.

DGRossetti · 20/01/2018 15:22

As we saw with the goosestep Lambeth Walk, if you can ridicule, you can diminish ...

Twitters search for Brexit pub names ...

-The Cake & Eat It
-The Fox and Unicorn
-Weathervanes
-OUTRAGE ARMS
-The Bouncer's Fist
-Shakespeare's Arse
-Nuttalls
-The Old Bull & Bullshit
-The Punchup Head
-The Six Bellends
-The not so Jolly Farmers
-The Welcome Inn
-The Money Tree
-The Collapsed Stable
-Bar Humbug
-The Inn Denial

(that's enough faux pub names -ed.)

prettybird · 20/01/2018 15:27

The obvious one has been missed: The Brexit Arms Wink

thecatfromjapan · 20/01/2018 15:40

Red I think that article touches on what I hate so much about all those Momentum-y "I would rather Leave with Corbyn than Remain with anyone else"-style tweets.

For me, it feels as though the "Communitarian/Cosmopolitan" style political alignment is not just a way of affiliating politically that is held by a particular group (Metropolitans; young people) but an actual direction of travel, a progressive direction of travel. It's based on an awareness - perhaps not even articulated - that the old political discourses, based on relationship to production and capital - were inadequate and had an unnuanced understanding of power relations. They didn't take into account the specific power relations inhering in, for example, being female, gay, disabled, an immigrant, a person of colour, a religious or racial minority, etc.

Generally, I guess I have a notion of political development ( - that political discourse changes -) which is fairly optimistic (- history happens, the stuff we learn gives us insights which can't be undone, short of huge repression). So, given that there have been huge social movements around feminism, anti-racism, gay rights, etc., we now have a political discourse - an political system - which, generally, can be called upon to take the political reality of these subjects on board.

So, when I see those tweets, I experience them as incredibly reactionary.

It feels as though I am being asked to ignore everything I feel I know about politics and go back to an old-skool, 'right-left' system, where the most fundamentally 'real' political subjects are based on their relationship to production. And that tends to be the white, male worker as a default. I say that because the 'reality' of any other political subjectivity - your identity as a woman, your identity as a gay person, etc. - has lesser political reality in that political philosophy.

I feel that the old 'right-left' system is no longer fit for purpose. It needs radical overhaul, not simply tinkering round the edges, or superficial widening to accommodate more 'shades' of the 'political worker subject'.

I feel I'm being told that I have to put up and shut up.

To me, it feels like a massive step backwards.

It doesn't help that those tweets are addressed to Lefties - that "Open-Closed" characterisation is dismissed and demonised as being "Blairite", "New Left".

I experience it as an attempt to try and brainwash me into thinking that what I experience as a progressive thrust in political discourse is, in fact, reactionary, a thing of the past, a hangover of "New Labour". The future lies with a return to the core principles of Marxism.

It really makes my head explode. We've just had a referendum, the outcome of which will impact on the coming generation with a far greater effect than any other political decision I can think of in my lifetime. I feel it can only be understood, and then dealt with, by using the tools of "Communitarian/Cosmopolitan" thinking - at least as a starting point.

It feels as though I'm being asked to believe black is white, rain isn't wet, and my own experience is a fantasy.

It feels deeply, profoundly reactionary - and slightly like brainwashing/gaslighting.

It also makes me think that there is a real split between the Momentum grassroots (which seems to me to be a Mouffe-Laclau oppositional, strategic, hegemony - and actually contains an awful lot of those 'new' political subjects, whose interests are absolutely not merely economic) and it's leadership (who I suspect are quite old-skool, Hard Lefties, who really do think that things like 'feminism' are a 'distraction from the real struggle', however much lip-service they pay to these subjects). I suspect there is going to be a political implosion there at some point.

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 20/01/2018 17:09

Speaking personally, I'd rather remain with the tories than leave with Labour/Corbyn. But we're not being offered that, are we.

RedToothBrush · 20/01/2018 18:57

So Katie Hopkins is having to sell her home to pay her legal fees.

There is an attempt to crowd fund buying it to house refugees.

Admittedly its only raised £650 last time I looked, but the idea of her spitting feathers at the mere prospect amused.

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mrsreynolds · 20/01/2018 18:57

Heh heh

BigChocFrenzy · 20/01/2018 19:23

Ah yes, that libel case brought - and won - by Jack Monroe
Hopkins lost her application to apply for an appeal.

She could have avoided all this if she'd just given Monroe the apology she wanted and the 5k donation to migrant rescue
Instead, she has to pay £24,000 in damages to Monroe, plus £107,000 in Monroe's legal costs, plus her own legal costs that are probably well over 100k.
Total would likely be ¼ million or more

The cost of a big gob that isn't big enough to say "sorry"

Some people just can't admit when they've made a mistake and keep digging the hole deeper … Hmm like Brexit