Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

@BigChocFrenzy - yes we are where we are and yes damage to the city will hurt us all. No argument. My sidetrack was arguing that the balance sheet isn't quite as one-sided as is often made out.

In the context of this thread though I'm saying that arguments for remain, on the basis that the city will otherwise be damaged, won't carry much weight for that part of the country that has been grossly disadvantaged by the FS focus since the Thatcher deregulation. Other arguments are needed and they're not being made.

At the risk of another sidetrack :) "...all the arts etc in London are part of the reason .." so to keep bankers in London we deny the rest of the country "access to the arts - yes that'll convince people to support the status quo.

If the Committee decided not to publish the analysis (and I'm assuming it's the Brexit committee, headed by Hilary Benn), isn't that down to the fact that it has been stacked with Tories and a DUP MP who can vote down any recommendations from Benn, Stephen Kinnock, Joanna Cherry etc? I don't think it is the HoC generally wanting to limit transparency but the Tories and their cronies.

God, while all this time and money is being wasted on Brexit, the factors that drove the leave vote remain unaddressed. Housing, education, health and squeezed wages can easily provoke further intolerance and populism. That’s my greatest fear at the moment.

This is interesting.
Are we going to prop up our economy by running finance deals to fund other countries wars?!
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/20/uk-arms-trade-no-moral-or-economic-sense-liam-fox-killing-machines

Frankie The City is just the most obvious sector to be damaged - along with losing a chunk of the 10-12% of taxes they pay.
The whole economy will be hit.

The Brexiters' fav economist Prof Minford casually states that Brexit - in the WTO form he and the Ultras advocate - will eliminate the manufacturing and farming / agricultural sectors

Those sectors provide about 8% of the jobs in the Uk, so a jump from the current 4.3% to over 12%.
Still nothing to interest the North ?

Regarding E27 immigrants, this chart shows NHS doctors in surgical specialities - meaning longer waits for ops
Those posts require years of training and can't eaily be replaced: those with highest A levels, who do 6 years med school, then several years specialising
Is that interesting ?

Britain not ruling the waves. Can't see this getting any better ...

www.theregister.co.uk/2017/12/21/f35_uk_price_not_disclosed/

(excerpt)

In other news, The Times reported that, for the first time in modern history, no Royal Navy fighting ships – destroyers, frigates, amphibious assault ships or carriers – would be operating away from Britain over Christmas and New Year.

This comes as a result of sensible guidelines that make it a priority for sailors to get home and see their families over the festive season. It is no bad thing from that point of view. On the flip side, thanks to Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond breaking down en route to the Gulf, this is now a breach of the usual operational plan. There are no warships able to take her place until January at the earliest.

The Gulf deployment is a vital bit of peacekeeping (it stops troublemakers from closing off vital shipping chokepoints or interfering with merchant traffic, as Iran does from time to time) and keeps the British flag flying prominently on the doorsteps of oil-producing nations who we are very dependent upon.

While other, small, warships are at sea, no vessels designed for smiting Her Majesty's enemies are out and about – illustrating the point that the RN is overstretched and the defence budget needs to grow. Key to British defence policy is credibility; if you don't look like you can walk the walk, nobody's going to take you seriously when you talk the talk.

Any household earning under 35k is probably a net taker, i.e. dependent on being supported by taxes from others.
They may not realise it, if they don't get WTC etc, but they probably use the NHS, schools, police, fire, pensions too etc .... subsidised by those on more than 35k

A big reason why I emigrated just a few days after the referendum was because I was totally pissed at Leavers posting how they voted to spite the middle classes

• and they referred to teachers, doctors, basically any professional, because they regarded them as "looking down" on others.

Somehow the professional mc, who actually carry most of the bloody country, were blamed for being an elite,
whereas the wealthy hard right who have been sucking up all the money and slashing services for decades were "standing up for the people"

I totally forgive someone who voted thinking it will be best for the country, even just best for their own family
-we've all made mistakes, whether in our lives, or our votes.

What I don't forgive, are those who voted to spite groups they hate, whether that be the mc professionals, or E27 immigrants.
They are now screaming their fury because some suspect they may be hurt too
screaming their demands that the hated mc professionals fix the mess they voted for.

I said "Fuck off" right after the ref and fucked off to Germany, with all my assets, with the large profit from my flat.
Part of the scientist flight / brain drain that is a hidden consequence of Brexit, but which will likely affect key sectors for years.

I pay my taxes in Germany now and I'll leave my assets (age 61, no close family) to German charities instead of UK ones.

Ben Bradshaw
@BenPBradshaw
Welcome recognition from the Minister that the powers of the @ElectoralCommUK need strengthening to deal with role of social media

Last count,

The UK has 19 warships, but 40 Admirals and 260 Captains..^

Must get crowded on deck

The UK has 19 warships, but 40 Admirals and 260 Captains.

I'm sure I saw an acid comment from an American that the UK navy has more officers than the entire US marine corps.

But, as Damien "First Minister" Green has just shown, not all jobs need someone to do them.

Well the US Marine Corps has about 200,000 personnel
vs the Royal Navy with about 35,000 - imcluding those 40 Admirals and 260 Captains !
The US Navy has 500,000, btw

Puts in perspective the delusions many Brexiters have about UK power projection
With US military might, even led by a tantrumming toddler, they can often force countries to concede to their demands or cake
The Uk cannot.

demands for cake < iPad again >

I wish I could remember the cite. It was something like the entire US complement of serving officers was outnumbered by the UK navies penpushers.

Shades of the Hospital Administrator from MPs "Meaning of Life" ...

Polish PM says he wants the Poles living in the UK to return to Poland. He says the Polish economy is growing. That should give people an incentive to return.

I suspect that he will get his wish. The £ has declined in value and people have taken on board May's earlier rhetoric of citizens of nowhere and hostile environments; they won't have taken on board her recent change of tune. Besides which, she's good at words, but not much cop when it comes to acting upon them.

BigChoc - you're just saying that 'no deal' is bad not that Brexit is bad - what are the arguments against leave to convince Lancashire which voted heavily for leave? (Blackpool was

Bear in mind:
"Total GVA for the Lancashire-14 area amounted to £27.7 billion in 2014, of which a substantial £4.99bn (18.0%) was allocated to manufacturing (UK=10.7%)
Wholesale, retail and motor vehicle repair, construction, human
health and real estate were the other four sectors that recorded values in excess of £2bn.

Lancashire-14 was under-represented in the information and communication, financial and insurance, real estate, plus the professional, scientific and technical sector. These four sectors are
associated with high value activities, but in Lancashire-14 they together accounted for just 21.1% of the area's GVA (UK=33.8%)"
www.lancashire.gov.uk/media/898789/local-gross-value-added-by-industry-article.pdf

Loss of manufacturing jobs in Lancashire has been a way of life since Thatcher.

Not surprising a nation with 460 ships sneering at Brit delusions
Yes, time for Suez II, i.e. Brexit

Oh, it's quality over quantity, comes the cry ?

Originally 8 of the new Type 45 frigates were ordered, but this was cut to 6,
with them entering service 3 years late
the project £1.5bn over budget (should have been £6.4 bn)
with the main weapon not working
Oops
...
and then the happy discovery during hot weather in the Gulf ...
a Type 45 can’t generate enough power in hot weather to move the ship and operate all the systems ... without shutting down.
Oops

< I have to blush, because the govt won't >

Ever since Blue Streak (and probably before) the insistence of politicians over soldiers as to what is needed to fight a war has wasted innumerable hospitals, motorways, airports, schools, and railways.

Anyone remember Nimrod ? £15 billion (yes, billion) in todays money. All spunked on a pissing match between the MoD (wanted politically correct, but untested British Nimrod) v. RAF (just wanted the tried, tested and available AWACs.).

(Tinfoil hat owners might also remember the plague of "suicides" which hit GEC-Marconi around about the mid 1980s).

Meanwhile the UK effectively gave the US the Hawker Harrier - a plane the US refused to invest in, as "they didn't need it". Guess which air force is still flying GR-8 Harriers ... having been gifted the spares to keep them going for free by the MoD.

The final irony (if you can bear it) is the US is still flying Harriers while they (and the UK) wait for the F-35. And despite the MoDs insistence, there is still a chance the F-35 will never see service ... I have a memory that Trump mentioned cancelling the cheque ?

No-one got any comment to make on Liam Fox trying to secure arms based trade deals?

The Centre for Economic Performance has published a study on 'The Local Economic Effects of Brexit' cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/brexit10.pdf
in which is a table of the Most and Least Affected Local Authorities (% Change in Gross Value Added)
West Lancashire's figures are -0.9 under a Soft Brexit and -1.7 under a Hard Brexit, while Blackpool's figures are -1.0 and -2.0.

So they are among the areas which will see the least negative change in GVA - but it is still likely to be a negative change.

And that's just the GVA. If the economy of the entire UK tanks, as we believe it will, and tax receipts go down, areas like these which depend heavily on benefits and public services will be even more badly hit than they already have been under the austerity agenda.

Brexit won't make things better, it will make things worse.

Damian Green
@DamianGreen
I am overwhelmed by the number of friends, colleagues (on all sides) and constituents who have sent supportive messages this morning. My thanks to you all, and a Happy Christmas. See you in 2018.

Department for Work and Pensions Tory refusal to hand 164,000 people higher disability benefits ruled 'blatantly discriminatory' by the High Court Campaigners hailed a massive victory as a top judge said the change to Personal Independence Payments (PIP) was unlawful

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-refusal-hand-164000-people-11733688#ICID=sharebar_twitter

Frankie Economic disaster is with a Canada deal, which is the only one that May's red lines on FOM and ECJ make possible.
Canada +++ is fantasy - the EU would have to almost dismantle themselves to grant that - and the E27 govts refuse it.

Any Brexit deal automatically makes the UK a "third country" which buggers up any manufacturing with JIT components
The only deal that wouldn't is keeping SM and CU, i.e. "EU minus"
So keeping FOM, following all EU rules, ECJ playing a role, minus MEPs - what's the advantage of Brexit ?

Any deal other than "EU minus" would almost certainly lose City passporting, risking that 10-12% of tax revenue
Would also lose services exports, because there are few deals in the world on services, only the EU Single Market
Services are 80% of UK exports, goods only 20%
but the UK needs exports to pay for all its imports of raw materials and half its food

We also lose the 50 or so FTAs and 900 other trade-related agreements with non-EU countries
The EU can't force other countries to continue these, even if it was prepared to spend the time and resources required
So far, Fox has exactly zero deals to replace these

In the meantime, the UK has Year Zero from 30 March 2019, as the only developed country in the world without a network of FTAs
Sharks circle the UK, scenting blood.
FTAs take typically 10-15 years
India, USA, S Korea are all estimating this for a UK deal - if the UK makes concessions on visas (India), lower food standards (US)

Yes, your Northern friends may not understand - more exactly, don't want to - what Brexit will cost the country even with a deal

Hence my view that if Brexit happens, maybe better that it's WTO, i.e. no deal

then at least they can't claim, when the economy crashes, when public services, WTC, benefits are slashed, that they didn't get pure Brexit
it is a great fallacy that they have nothing to lose - but only Brexit will really prove it to them.
Otherwise, any Brexit damage after a deal will be put down to Brexit not being pure enough

They can at least enjoy having their own country back when all the E27 workers flee the sinking ship.
Might give some sense of victory, to compensate for being even poorer than before.,

so, give pure Brexit a fair go, 5-10 years, then maybe a much poorer UK can apply to rejoin the EU
At least the younger generation will have a chance, once the shifting age demographics makes their vote stronger
Much smaller payments for a much poorer country
Could well be a net recipient.

The "transition period" keeps only UK-EU trade, because May has been too stubborn & delusional to ask for an A50 "extension" to keep everything, until they have replacements sorted

So the E27 has time to continue its disengagement from UK supply chains - the RoI in particular needs this time to build in connections to the EU mainland.

The EU still have all their FTAs etc of course, so they can concentrate on compensating for loss of trade with one country
while the UK has to compensate for all those lost 900 arrangements around the world

I hope the UK govt can keep all the ramifications in their empty heads:
Open Skies for flights, EURATOM for nuclear fuel and medicine, all those other agencies to build from scratch ...

So glad I'm out of it.

Who believes in woo ?

For various reasons, this quote flitted past my screen just now ... (and I thought of you )

“The first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him.”

Nicolo Machiavelli.

who had some real zingers .....

"There is no other way to guard yourself against flattery than by making men understand that telling you the truth will not offend you.”

“Without an opportunity, their abilities would have been wasted, and without their abilities, the opportunity would have arisen in vain.”

“It is not titles that honor men, but men that honor titles.”

“All courses of action are risky, so prudence is not in avoiding danger (it's impossible), but calculating risk and acting decisively."

“Where the willingness is great, the difficulties cannot be great. ”

“It must be considered that there is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.”

“Men intrinsically do not trust new things that they have not experienced themselves.”

“He who becomes a Prince through the favor of the people should always keep on good terms with them; which it is easy for him to do, since all they ask is not to be oppressed.”

“Minds are of three kinds: one is capable of thinking for itself; another is able to understand the thinking of others; and a third can neither think for itself nor understand the thinking of others. The first is of the highest excellence, the second is excellent, and the third is worthless.”