Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

@PattyPenguin - hmm thanks - that study says the areas that voted remain are those most impacted. Whilst this is in conflict with the Birmingham University study it does provide a reasonable rationale why that might be the case.

So there is no argument for these areas to swing to remain - given that the status quo has treated them so badly - exit is a vote for change.

Excellent collection, LH

also ...

• "The trouble with political suicide is that you live to regret it".

• Mark Twain:
  "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."

• AJ Liebling (US journalist 1940s - 1963):
  "Freedom of the press belongs those who own one"

• Philip K. Dick:
  "it is sometimes an appropriate response to reality to go insane.”

• Sums up UKIP:
  "they attract people who failed at everything else in life and are bitter about it"

• Theresa May refuses to comply with gravity because the No Gravity side won the referendum.
  The No Gravity Bill will be passed shortly.

• The late Republican President Reagan was a bit dumb, but able to wisecrack at his own expense:
  ^"I have left orders to be awakened at any time in case of national emergency
  – even if I'm in a Cabinet meeting."^

• Hopefully ....
  Biden to Obama: "I showed Trump the nuclear launch buttons before he left".
  Obama (facepalm): "Joe, that was your old GameBoy"
  Biden: "Goddamn right !"

It's galling to think that BoJo is probably quite au fait with Machiavelli. But I suspect most Brexiteers will find him a tad too foreign, preferring our own sages such as ... Samuel Johnson ...

Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel !

... actually, maybe not

The thing is, change isn't always positive. And is highly unlikely to be in this case. Unless the positive change you're after is less Europeans around going to be disappointed by the lack of drop in other forriners though

Frankie Change can be for the worse
If change is driven by the hard right, it is likely to be so

Anyone - not safely wealthy - in the UK , who genuinely believes they have nothing to lose, deserves to have it proved to them that they do

Doesn't anyone in those Northern areas use schools, hospitals, care services, police, fire services ?
Noone on WTC, state pension, or any benefits ?

Less money available from taxes means less to spend on all of those

What positive thing does the North expect from Brexit ?
Just "change" ?
No more plan than that ?

So, take all the money you were going to spend on rent and place it on the lotto
That brings a change too, whatever the result.

Doesn't anyone in those Northern areas use schools, hospitals, care services, police, fire services ?

I think there is a disconnect somewhere.

Going back to my referendum to abolish income tax. I will guarantee there are some people who genuinely don't understand that hospitals and schools are paid for from tax. Not a majority. But enough to either surprise or worry, depending on what you view of an ignorant electorate is.

And if that sounds far fetched, just remember how it's recently emerged that some people - who are allowed to vote - either didn't know Northern Ireland was part of the UK, or (more worryingly) didn't realise it was part of the Island of Ireland (gawd knows where they though it was).

Since we're a-quoting, then Barnums observation that no one lost money underestimating the intelligence of the public springs to mind.

Also, a fortnightly top-up of "Dumb Britain" in Private Eye keeps expectations firmly in check.

I've perceived the drift of the Westministenders threads as recognising the disaster of any Brexit and puzzlement as to the minimal lack of swing to remain.

I stuck my head up from lurking to explain how my family in the North West perceived the vote - I haven't got any arguments to move them to remain. (given an imperilled city will have no sway) I'd hope any such arguments would be more widely applicable.

Yes of course they use NHS, Police etc - but those are under threat from austerity and the government agenda let alone Brexit.

Of course change can be negative - but if the remainder South gets disproportionately hit then perhaps there is more of a chance of 'all in it together'?

I don't believe that, nor do i believe the city will suffer whatever happens - the wide boys will manage to finesse something to maintain their bonus and/or the government will support them and the offshore havens to the detriment of the rest of the country.

The ECJ has ruled a few days ago that Uber is a transport firm, not an information sharing service as the company claimed.
This means Uber must meet all relevant EU and local transport regulations, workers' rights, paid holidays etc

Well, until Brexit transition has finished
Then that pesky red tape can be dropped

Like the EU Working hours directive
Everyone can enjoy not having the right to refuse to work 50 or 60 hours each week
One of the many EU regs that would vanish in the "Bonfire of Red Tape" that Priti Patel & her ERG chums plan after Brexit
Another Brexit win !

I wish people would stop talking about The North re Brexit as one homogenous mass. If anything, it's and east/west split.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36616028

I'm not puzzled why Remain is not rocketing ahead, instead of slowly increasing

At least 5 clear reasons, imo

1. No real alternative party: Labour under Corbyn have been careful not to offer a clear alternative to the govt on Brexit
   (and voters tend to shun minor parties in times of crisis)

2. Corbyn: Many in the centre and traditional Labour wouldn't vote for Corbyn anyway, with his past, even if the Tories were promising to roast puppies for winter fuel.
   A soft left leader with the same policies would be well ahead - provided their election didn't split the party again.

3. Nationalism: Tory party & rightwing press are piling it on, xenophobia on steroids. US rightwing media too. Russian bots.
   The Heil alone has probably frightened off some local & national politicians from getting in the gunsights.

4. The "backfire effect"

http://www.skepdic.com/backfireeffect.html

a term term coined by Brendan Nyhan and Jason Reifler to describe how
some individuals when confronted with evidence that conflicts with their beliefs come to hold their original position even more strongly:
…
The more ideological and the more emotion-based a belief is, the more likely it is that contrary evidence will be ineffective

5. Dunning-Kruger Effect: Unskilled and Unaware People not recognising their own incompetence leads to them having inflated self-confidence, see graph

PainintheEar
@BenPBradshaw
Important Commons debate on Russian interference in Britain coming up shortly.

File under "Circuses".

Our university city in the north was a clear remain vote, it isn't as simple as north/south. The people in the countryside and small towns around us who voted leave fell into two main groups, lower socio-economic groups who felt angry and excluded and older people who disliked the cultural changes they felt they had been subjected to. Neither of these groups have experienced enough further hardship to change their minds about was mostly an emotional rather than a rational decision.

Russ #FBPE‏
@RJonesUX

In a rational country, Dominic Grieve and Kier Starmer would lead their parties, Nigel Farage would be deputy manager of a Wetherspoons in Penge, and Boris Johnson would be a children's entertainer on administrative leave pending the outcome of a disciplinary hearing.

I have to admit to being surprised at Birminghams (narrow) Leave majority. Much as I can gripe about my (enforced) adopted city, it's international credentials are impeccable. Well, were.

May has avoided having to sack another minister

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/21/cabinet-inquiry-finds-mark-garnier-did-not-breach-ministerial-code

The junior trade minister Mark Garnier has been formally cleared of wrongdoing for asking his former assistant to buy a sex toy and calling her “sugar tits”,
with no action being taken against him, Downing Street has said.

< No wonder the govt is bungling everything. No (male) minister seems to have grown emotionally since age 12 and they are controlled by their robot )

Bigchoc - Uber is classed as a private hire company in the UK. They first applied for a private hire licence in London in 2012 - the one they were trying to renew but were refused the other month. So this ruling doesn't make any difference in the UK.

Jonah Fisher@JonahFisherBBC
BREAKING: Was a Russian spy inside Downing St in July? Ukrainian authorities have arrested the interpreter in the middle of this photo and claim he reported to Moscow.
12:30 PM - Dec 21, 2017

Why is fascist english gov sucking up to polish fascists, oh, wait a minute..............

And if basis of EU26 sanctions are the constitutional invalidity of polish gov's actions then surely the constitutional invalidity of the actioning of article 50 would be sanctioned by EU26 too?

@A50Challenge
That’s a can🥫 of 🐛 s. Nobody wants to open THAT.

Looks like this really is the last xmas, folks.

cory Looks like the ECJ decision meshes with the London tribunal decision.
Less likely that any London court - with an eye on ECJ - would overturn the tribunal.

BUT, once any Brexit "transition" period is over, the govt can legislate to enable Uber to operate as they wish
Just like they can abandon the Working Time Directive wrt maximum hrs for other jobs.
Depends whether they plan to attract business with the lower rights Singapore model, which the ERG et al so admire, or whether there is a "soft" Brexit.

afaik, Uber can only continue to run in their current model, with "self-employed" drivers, until the appeals process runs out
Then they have to treat their workers as employees, with all the rights that involves.

www.bbc.com/news/business-41940018

"Taxi-hailing app firm Uber has lost an appeal against a ruling that its drivers should be treated as workers rather than self-employed.
Last year a tribunal ruled drivers James Farrar and Yaseen Aslam were Uber staff and entitled to holiday pay, paid rest breaks and the minimum wage.
Uber appealed, arguing its drivers were self employed and were under no obligation to use its booking app."

Guardian btl comment:

"This is all a terrible misunderstanding. That wasn't porn on Damien Green's hard drive.
It was the Brexit impact assessments.
You're all just confused cos it showed lots of people getting f@cked."

Then they have to treat their workers as employees, with all the rights that involves.

This isn't quite right, the press often use the incorrect vocab. The ruling has found that the drivers have rights as 'workers' which carries entitlement to paid holiday and other working time rights, also the nat min wage.

The drivers have not been found to be entitled to ' employee' rights which are more extensive.

The drivers have not been found to be entitled to ' employee' rights which are more extensive.

So that would be 4 nil to us then:

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/homeless-eu-citizens-deporting-illegal-policy-home-office-high-court-ruling-brexit-stop-a8110001.html

www2.cipd.co.uk/community/blogs/b/the_blawg/archive/2017/11/14/uber-drivers-are-workers-but-why-does-this-matter

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R_(Miller)_v_Secretary_of_State_for_Exiting_the_European_Union

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tory-refusal-hand-164000-people-11733688

Next stop.
Article 50 unconstitutionally triggered.

To break the law on 4 constitutional/ human rights/ workers' rights l issues could be considered a misfortune to break 5 looks like carelessness.

Pesky Rule of Law.

The HoL EU Committee has reviewed the sectoral reports.
In an open letter to DD, their chair called upon the govt to publish the missing sections:

http://www.parliament.uk/documents/lords-committees/eu-select/Correspondence-2017-19/21-12-17-Letter-to-David-Davis-sectoral-analyses.pdf

"We have not identified any material in the sectoral analyses that could be regarded as “negotiation sensitive”. Most stakeholder views are already in the public domain, including in committee inquiries and reports."

They also found:
"The sectoral analyses are variable in length and inconsistent in approach and in the use of statistics.
There is double-counting in some sectors "

and

"there is little over-arching analysis by the Government"

Big choc - I think you are mixing up your employment tribunal and Transport for London's refusal to issue Uber with another private hire operator licence.
The status of Uber as a transport/taxi company or a commercial app. provider has nothing to do with employment rights but everything to do with it's ability to operate as it does.

The ECJ ruling says that it is a transport company and it has to abide by all the rules and regs of the country it is operating in. Thus they apply for an operating licence in each city they operate in in the UK. That does not change because of the ECJ ruling nor will it when we leave the EU.

The tribunal case taken out by two Uber drivers is to do with how the company views it's drivers - self employed or employed and not if it operates as a taxi firm or not which is what the ECJ ruling is about.