Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

Do you also hate the "spiteful" US, India, S Korea, who are estimating that negotiating any FTA with the UK would take until about 2030 ?

• AND would then require terms like many more visas (India) or allowing large-scale imports of chlorine chicken and hormone-ridden beef (USA)

The EU would be happy to quickly agree either a Canada deal, or a Norway deal, because those existing templates don't harm their Single Market.

However, the 27 members are not prepared to let the UK have "cake" - i.e. the advantages of Norway, with only the responsibilities of Canada

It is not spite, for the EU to refuse to seriously harm itself, to ruin its industry, to destroy its "4 Pillars," in order to rescue the UK from the consequences of its own decision.

Brexit, on whatever terms, makes the UK automatically a "third country" legally in trade law.

To give the Uk its desired cake deal, the EU would basically have to dismantle its Single Market, the basis for much of its prosperity.
That's because of WTO rules and because of Most Favoured Nation terms in its existing trade deals.

Hating the EU is, imo, displaced fury at the consequences of reckless British decisions coming home to roost.

Excellent post thecatfromjapan

All this "the EU are punishing the UK for leaving" and "the EU are going to be sorry they need us more than we need them" is just so stupid.

It's like a child marching alone out of the playground leaving all the other children happily playing, and then complaining bitterly that all the playground equipment is still in the playground, and the other children are deliberately keeping it there out of spite.

Vivienne....u ok hun?

A meaningful vote is not one where the only option is to leave with an unacceptable deal or leave with no deal.

Agreed. The amendment was "subject to the prior enactment of a statute by Parliament approving the final terms of withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union". I have no idea the extent to which this constrains the government in the event of a deal being rejected by parliament.

It isn't just travelling orchestras - when I saw that post I remembered the ridiculous problem that rugby teams have had since two South African teams have come into the Pro-14. They need special visas for some of their players to travel to SA, which is obviously fair enough, but has seemingly been problematic.

In two years' time UK rugby teams will have to get visas for many players to play any matches in Europe. Ditto football teams, school groups (no more ski trips), university drinking cultural appreciation societies, any disparate group of people travelling to Europe will be a logistical nightmare.

Barnier's press conference:

people should not underestimate the “difficulty” of getting European parliaments to ratify the final trade deal

Democracy is very "spiteful:"
38 national and regional parliaments, plus the EU Parliament, each able to veto a trade deal with the UK that they think will harm their country's interests

but what's the alternative ?
Every country has to rubber stamp what the UK wants ?

No country is stopping the UK leaving, just refusing to let it have "cake and eat it."

All this "the EU are punishing the UK for leaving" and "the EU are going to be sorry they need us more than we need them" is just so stupid.

Bear in mind too, that this version of leaving the EU, the SoM and CU are Nick Timothy's and May's version of Leave. Who elected Nick Timothy? No one. Farage, Hannan and Co were all for the Norway model, at one stage. I daresay if we went for the Norway model the EU could stitch up a deal fairly quickly.

Why is having to get a Visa such a terrible thing. If I wanted to move to America or Australia or New Zealand I'd have to get a Visa. I cant imagine it would that difficult for a doctor or a world class musician to get a visa. Fill in some forms prove you are who you say you are, don't have a criminal record and have an the offer of a job and that's you. There would be an admin fee to be paid for by the applicant however that would in many cases either be waived if someone was coming to work for say the NHS or refunded to them by their employer.
Its not unreasonable to expect a country to exercise a minimum of a due diligence on who it allows in. At the moment due to the incompetence and malfeasance of successive governments we literally have no idea who is currently in the country. The same is true for a lot of EU countries.
If free movement of people is such a good thing then surely the punishment for not allowing free movement of people is not having free movement of people.
Its also interesting to note that countries whose citizens have benefited most from being able to live and work abroad like those in Eastern Europe are dead set against any brown people coming to live there. Scotland has taken for example more Syrian refugees than Poland.

Bloody spiteful EU. How dare they look after their own interests. throws teddies

Jack Maidment‏Verified account
@jrmaidment

NEW: Theresa May says the Government has accepted the Letwin amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill which will allow Parliament to change the date of Brexit under exceptional circumstances.

Faisal Islam‏Verified account
@faisalislam

PM confirms to Julian Lewis that Govt accepts Letwin amendment, reintroducing power to vary exit date. PM: “Only use this power in exceptional circumstances for the shortest period of time, and an affirmative motion would be brought too the House”

Huh, in reality she's afraid of another defeat. Let me be clear, nothing has changed, strong and stable brexit means brexit.

Short-term visas have to be prepared months in advance. They're finicky and time-consuming. For a start, when visas are required for EU musicians, etc., someone will have to be employed - more likely someones - just to organise all that. That's a cost. It's also a delay. From the musician's point of view, it will make accepting work in the UK less attractive than accepting work somewhere within the EU.

And think about the hassle of getting in place all the visas necessary for a European tour. Bearing in mind that, with sterling slumping, a lot of touring companies are relying on touring outside the UK to balance the books.

For creative industries such as film , who hire freelancers on very short work contracts, there is the huge issue of the income/payment barrier. The freelancers will almost certainly not earn enough to meet the income requirement at which the current visa barriers are set. Moreover, there is currently a ceiling to the number of these visas - and it's very low.

Likewise, a lot of creative recruitment is actual at graduate level, starting with ad hoc work during study, moving on to ad hoc work, even internships, post-graduation. Not only is student immigration going to be cut back but the visa situation kicks in for that post-graduate employment route.

Initially at least, work in the creative industry isn't very well-paid and relies on this ability to check talent out, gain experience, etc., at a low-paid level. The visa situation - which has an income threshold level - knocks all this on the head.

The UK is a very small country. It simply doesn't have the population to support world-class production in the creative industry through an internal talent pool. It needs the flexibility of having a loose immigration network behind it. This allows it to punch well above weight, making it world class, and that helps to pull in talent at a high level - a world class level.

Informally, creative industries have been assured that the government is seriously looking into radically liberalising immigration post-Brexit - presumably when the impact of cutting immigration from the EU becomes apparent and the Brexit maniacs have returned to their slumbers.

However, I don't think there is anyone who actually trusts the government on this any more.

Why is having to get a Visa such a terrible thing. If I wanted to move to America or Australia or New Zealand I'd have to get a Visa.
It's not just moving to live somewhere though is it. We are talking about the extra work needed for a youth orchestra to tour France, or a gymnastics group to attend events in Spain. These are small organisations that will find it harder to do things that improve the experience of children. Extra time and expense for these groups could mean they just can't afford to make these trips in future.

In the opposite direction there is less incentive for EU arts groups and organisations to come to the UK. Why would they bother when they can just tour happily around the rest of the EU with no tiresome paperwork at all.

Maybe in the grand scheme of things this isn't a huge deal, but it is sad to think that the cultural and artistic experiences people have in the future will be lessened.

Ops, crossed with catfromjapan who put it much better than me.

New Zealand isn't famous for its world-class film industry and orchestras. Or it's tech culture and car design. Nor do it's universities slug it out for top position in world league tables. There's a reason for that.

New Zealand is great for many things but I'm not sure it's what we thought the UK should be aiming for only 3 years ago.

I find it profoundly depressing that people hate the UK's achievements so much they want to tear all that apart.

Why do you hate UK success stories so much?

To personalise a little - why do you hate the UK? What did it do to you that you want to destroy so much?

Faisal Islam‏Verified account
@faisalislam

Another Tory eurosceptic John Baron again expresses concern about the Letwin Amendment power reintroducing discretion over exit date...”weeks or two months?’
PM: shortest possible time

At one time we didn't need visas for holidays in Western Europe, so that might happen again, but then there were currency restrictions, and the limits weren't all that high from what I remember.

I recall a friend trying to get work in Germany in about 1972; much to-ing and fro-ing of paperwork, translated by his mother, who spoke German, to get the right permits, both to work and for residence. In the end, he gave up on the idea because it was more trouble than it was worth. Contrast that with DDs experience 35 years later, went to an EU country, registered for the equivalent of an NI Number, went to an employment agency and got a job with a firm which did business in English.

New Zealand isn't famous for its world-class film industry and orchestras. Or it's tech culture and car design. Nor do it's universities slug it out for top position in world league tables. There's a reason for that.

To be fair, it does have Wellywood. Having said that, according to the New Zealand Film Commission, 300 films have been made in NZ since the Commission was established - in 1978. Yes, 40 years ago. That's an average of fewer than 10 a year.

New Zealand isn't famous for its world-class film industry and orchestras

Did film all of Lord of the Rings trilogy there.

Showing my age and cultish tastes it is also home to Xena Warrior Princess.

Watched a fantastic hour of Dame Kiri on BBC4 the other night.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_New_Zealand_films

Worth bearing in mind population of NZ is less than Scotland.

Australia has 4 Unis in the QS top 50 Worldwide rankings. The EU (excl UK) has only 1.

That makes it a great location, Howabout.

That's one, very famous, opera singer, Howabout.

Australia is not New Zealand - but I do realise it's a mistake many people make, Howabout.

You're being illogical, Howabout. The rankings of EU universities have the square root of fuck all to do with anything I've posted. The visa situation is bad for UK Higher Education, not higher Education in EU countries. This matters because the UK's Higher Education sector is world class and is a major sector within the UK. Many people in this country do not care about the sectors in which the UK excels. In fact, they hate the fact that UK excels in some areas. Fortunately for the haters, Brexit is going to be very damaging for these sectors.

I'm actually laughing at that ridiculous list.

You realise that the creative industry in the UK is the 6th largest industry? It's one of the major contributors to the income that pays for infrastructure such as the NHS.

I think, no, I know, you have no real grasp of how big and important that industry is.

I don't hold you entirely responsible for that. The likes of the Daily Mail have been simultaneously feeding off the creative industry and belittling it for decades. There is a massive blind-spot about business and economics in this country - which has people desperately battling to understand complex economics and developing industries from a very limited direct experience. It's sad, really.

Why is having to get a Visa such a terrible thing.

Visas come with conditions. My immediate thought is that visas for work (no one will care too much about tourists) will probably be limited by quota and employer. (The way the US does it). So not only will there be a finite limit, but if you want to change employer, you need to get another visa.

A much better question to ask would have been "How does the UK do non-EU visas, and how would that work when the EU uses a similar system with a non-EU UK ?". For some UK citizens it may be an interesting through-the-looking-glass experience.

LurkingHusband I've been thinking about your post with regard to a Referendum on abolishing Income Tax.

I think you're right.

Deep, deep inside me is a little gnome, sympathetic to Trotsky.

Nestled beside that gnome, is a little troll that is curious as to how far the UK could be pushed towards utter chaos.

The gnome and the troll are wondering about starting a petition to ask for a referendum on abolishing income tax.

Abolishing tax on earned income would be the more attractive of that proposition. So, what about unearned income? Or income from inheritance? And then there is earned income over and above a reasonable level. But I suppose the point is that refs are now the will of the people and that must be respected, bigly. So bring on the ref on income tax.

The top University thing relies on research and citations (which are related to the research) to bring the position up. If research is affected or diminished, it may change the positions. So maybe threatening that great achievement. It is not developed in isolation or completely separately from it's connections.

The gnome and the troll are wondering about starting a petition to ask for a referendum on abolishing income tax.

You need to find a political party internally divided on the issue that can't be honest and go one way the other for fear of losing power. You also need a complicit media, so that all and any problems can be blamed on "income tax" rather than the governments woefully pisspoor attempts to collect said income tax (it's already starting to look familiar). Then finally you need a bunch of people so fucking stupid that they think that a vote to abolish income tax will just invent money from some bottomless pit, and that no one will ever have to pay tax again.

On the basis it seems all the ingredients are readily available, go for it.

And in the spirit of Brexit, you need to ensure the campaign will be led by the people who will be least affected by it. For this campaign, there's only one person that fits the bill, and that's the Queen.

What could possibly go wrong.