Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

[RedToothBrush]

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

I am not sure that the religious fundamentalists have the same hold here as in the USA. Generally speaking we make less show of religion. In the southern states of the US that I know about, the local papers will print the titles of what the local churches sermons will be on the next Sunday. I can't imagine our local papers doing that.

I was idly looking up the previous Apprentice plastic surgeon winner to see she was retweeting Arlene Foster.

Arlene Foster retweets? Ugh

Would it be worthwhile, or really depressing, to predict where we will be in 12 months time? Realistically not in your dreams.

If there had been predictions 12 months ago, what would you have predicted?

I would have predicted the reduced majority, but stupidly saw this as a positive as I foolishly thought this would lead to debate and compromise rather than the frenzied, crazed attempts to circumvent Parliamentary process.

One certainty is that the schism in the Tory party is not going to heal, so presumably that will deepen.Would anyone resign, thereby reducing the 'coalition' majority even further?

The real price of Brexit begins to emerge

FT research shows that the weekly hit to the British economy could be the same £350m that Leave campaigners promised to claw back

amp.ft.com/content/e3b29230-db5f-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482?__twitter_impression=true

There are signs that the brexiteers are uniting behind May for the usual reasons (like the front page splash in the times!) - a leadership
Challenge now would be terrible and I’d wager there are self serving reasons to that mean it’s easier to unite behind her in order for her to take the hit

Sam Coates Times
@SamCoatesTimes
Main bulk of trade talks to take place after brexit in March 2019 meaning Tories think Theresa May should go on and on while they do...

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f35b62a0-e377-11e7-a07e-b2db9e9d66b2

The Economist
@TheEconomist
It is surprising to hear Brexiteers praising Theresa May, considering she blurred their red lines

www.economist.com/news/britain/21732556-despite-big-exit-bill-and-concessions-european-judges-and-irish-border-brexit?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/whyarebrexiteerssoquietabouttheresamaysconcessionstobrusselsthedogsthatdidntbark

And

Tory rebels 'call on Theresa May to form soft Brexit alliance’ with Labour MPs

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/news/91532/tory-rebels-call-theresa-may-form-soft

Sorry - the “front page splash in the times” was in reference to the fact there are signs that the brexiteers are uniting behind May, not that that’s a usual reason to do so!

lonely - I would have predicted that Art 50 wouldn't have been triggered in March (perhaps still wouldn't have been triggered) and the whole idea of Brexit-ing would have been kicked down the road a bit.

On the basis of that cannily accurate prediction, in the coming year: the UK will stamp its feet and make a big fuss about how it won't accept EU terms before, erm, accepting more or less all of the EU's terms. There will be more humiliating attempts to butter up other countries in preparation of getting great FTAs which will amount to nothing. The DUP will cause more problems for TM. Another general election after vote of no confidence, Conservatives win with even smaller minority. Complete deadlock in parliament and we end up with a soft Brexit to save ourselves from ourselves with long transition period. Everyone wonders wtf we put ourselves though that - the country is finally united in our bewilderment at the expense and pointlessness of it all.

Frances O'Grady @ FrancesOgrady
I've seen reports of a ministerial plot to scrap the Working Time Directive. This is a straight-up attack on our rights at work.
Millions of workers - esp part-time women - got paid holidays because of this rule. And it stops bosses from forcing us to work ridiculous hours.
The PM promised not to weaken workers' rights after Brexit. This will test if she can keep her word, or if she's a prisoner of extremists in her own cabinet.

David Lammy @ DavidLammy
Also, workers in many industries (eg law, finance, journalism) already sign away their rights to weekly limits in the number of hours they work under the Working Time Directive, so this is clearly and explicitly an attack on the lowest paid workers in our economy

Brexit is such fun.

I'm sure plenty of Leavers were adamant that we would be maintaining workers' rights and standards, and in fact it was going to be better post-Brexit .

lala, I think quite a few of the Brexiteers think any hardship (will usually be inflicted on others or the masses) is worth their ideological Brexit.

My prediction is uncannily similar to lala's, up to the GE part. There won’t be another GE until the Tories have installed someone who knows how to run a campaign, which they will then win.

Interesting predictions Lala and Eeeeeow . Mine is similar although I'm thrown because my head tells me the Tories can win another election but my heart doesn't believe it. I actually don't think there'll be another election before next Christmas and we will limp along as we are for another 12 months with a veneer of cabinet unity occasionally being presented, with regular slips exposing the chasm beneath.Eventually the Party has to split,but not in the next 12 months.

On workers' rights. What winds me up is the sheer cowardice over all this.

Look if our masters in Westminster think we have too much time off (rather than leaving the most beneficial trading partner in order to strip away workers rights) why not try restricting it first? Show some guts and overtly try and change workers rights now, rather than trying to hide it tied up with our EU departure.Contrary to popular opinion, the EU regs on workers rights are less restrictive than the extra provisions we have added.

For example, under EU regulations the minimum amount of holiday is 20 days. The government here increased it to 28 to include bank holidays. Therefore the government can, if it chooses, reduce holiday back to 20 days so could set the minimum at 12 days plus 8 bank holidays! This would be closer to the position in the States. Rather than leave the EU, why not show some balls and try reducing holiday first. Just see how that goes down,insert lead ballon emoji .

Another example, an old point but within EU regulations it is perfectly permissible to follow up on EU citizens after three months and see how they are supporting themselves,if they have work, and where they're living etc. Rather than leave the EU, why try and enforce a system first if that's what the bloomin' cabal really want to do . Although as we have discussed ad nauseam every serious study shows we benefit from EU immigration anyway.

This proves that we are all living in a simulation.

twitter.com/RogerHelmerMEP/status/942338932762710017

Sorry some strike through fails but you get the gist.

Rees -Mogg ,Gove, Johnson etc should show some faith in their beliefs -reduce the statutory minimum holiday now to 20 days and test the water,rather than trying to take us out of the EU first and then revealing the true agenda.

PainInTheEar

Very funny, but completely lost on the league of morons* that is Brexiteers. An august group that despite their wide ranging and varied backgrounds have demonstrated that the one thing that really unites them is an ignorance - if not contempt - for British history.

Unless it has a Spitfire in it.

*from "Burn after Reading"

Interesting question re predictions.

• UK will continue to come up against Brussels red lines and will give way each time, because the alternative is too horrible to contemplate.

• The EU will help soften the wording of each capitulation, to limit the likelihood that May is deposed by her hardliners.

• Remain's lead over Leave in opinion polling will grow. Interesting debate on twitter this weekend about whether this is due to people changing their minds, or whether it's just those who did not vote in June 2016 now going overwhelmingly for Remain (of course some of these people who did not vote in 2016 were unable to due to being under 18 at the time - IIRC >80% of this group are Remain).

My own view is that so far the increase in Remain is mainly explained by Remain picking up new/non-voters (and leave voters dying), rather than people changing their minds, although there is some interesting evidence of regional differences eg the SW is now Remain.

• Labour will carry on being useless and their lead over the Tories will continue to erode, especially if the Tories rally behind May (who is terrible but still better than the alternatives).

Sorry for the bold text. The Mumsnet app is possibly the second worst piece of commercial IT in existence (after the main mumsnet website).

You think the Conservatives will choose to have an election but it may be out of their control - a couple of by-elections that go against them and pissing off the DUP and they won't survive a vote of no confidence...

choose not to have an election

More threats: Tory Party and Daily Heil working together to stamp out opposition ?

This looks like a pattern, a deliberate policy between allies.
Explains why cabinet ministers prioritise meeting Dacre over doing their job,
e.g. DD leaving negotiations with Barnier in July to dine with Dacre

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/17/tory-activist-in-damian-green-case-had-violent-threats-after-mail-article
*
Kate Maltby, the Conservative activist who has made allegations of sexual harassment against the first secretary of state, Damian Green,
received a series of “violent threats” after the Daily Mail published an article calling her “one very pushy lady”*

With a Cabinet Office inquiry into Green’s case understood to be examining whether he played a role in briefing the newspaper against Maltby,
her allies say the critical piece coincided with a flurry of threats against her, some of which she is in the process of reporting to police.

The Mail article quoted a Tory source dismissing Maltby as a “political groupie”,
and another saying:

“She might be more careful the next time she’s asked to write a piece trashing a decent man.”
< what decent man ? >

Some at Westminster believe the piece and similar articles may have deterred other potential victims of harassment from coming forward.
< obviously an intention >
Maltby’s friends say she received threats on social media and by email.

A strategy I saw being discussed to boost Remain sentiment (I think with an eye on any second referendum that might emerge) was to focus on engaging those who hadn't voted last time but who would see the logical impetus behind remaining.

It brought to mind how Alabama was won not through people changing their minds, though some of this did happen and obviously did help, but predominantly was through making sustained efforts to get black voters out, which ultimately succeeded (though Moore has yet to concede!).

UK banks tell May: a Canada-style Brexit deal is not good enough

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/dec/17/uk-banks-tell-may-a-canada-style-brexit-deal-is-not-good-enough

Banking trade body urges Theresa May and Philip Hammond to put City at centre of EU talks
or risk dealing a major blow to the economy