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Brexit

Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2017 19:46

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

OP posts:
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BiglyBadgers · 17/12/2017 11:28

I know this thread is extremely informative and learned, but I find it a little worrying that professional top tier politicians are debating at the same level and using the same points as are used on here.

Not just scary they are arguing at this level, but bloody terrifying that they are having this discussing at this point in the negotiations. Shock

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 11:55

Unfortunately, none of the 3 Dunces or May or the Ultra MPs seem to understand pts about 3rd countries, trade, agencies etc that we've been discussing for months

Horrifying, but they do not have even Westministender level of knowledge - and we are far from professionals in these fields

They have access to all govt info, but don't want to hear.
Deliberate wilful ignorance - why do the UK & US elect wilful toddlers ?

PurplePillowCase · 17/12/2017 11:58

meanwhile my employer has told us to be 'mindfull' about where we are on 30.3.19 when booking our holidays (we tend to start the holiday plan a year or so in advance)...

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 11:58

This Tuesday is the first time that the Cabinet will discuss Brexit end aims and strategy
May has been avoiding this, for fear the Cabinet will tear itself apart and she will topple

99.9% of the govt energy & thought goes on clinging to power, not on actually doing their jobs for the country

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 12:04

All the Brexiter declarations that - "of course" - workers' right will be maintained ...

Looks like first EU directive to go is the Working Time Directive

The Sun is proclaiming that will mean an overtime bonanza Confused
There was nothing preventing employers from paying overtime rates for work outside contracted hours
However, too many employees were forced to sign the output to keep / get a job - and often those extra hours are not paid at even the regular hourly rate

More employees will be expected to work over 40 hours, now there is no longer even a form to sign.

derxa · 17/12/2017 12:11

I am not sure whether the Tories think animals are sentient or not.
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/12/michael-gove-says-brexit-means-higher-animal-welfare-standards/
I don't like Gove but I believe him on this.
The truth of the matter is that UK farmers have followed EU directives on animal welfare and are ahead in many ways.
We shall see what happens.

LurkingHusband · 17/12/2017 12:15

meanwhile my employer has told us to be 'mindfull' about where we are on 30.3.19 when booking our holidays

That's quite tame.

Some employers are quietly checking the EU nationality of staff, and I've noticed that question about holding other citizenship (never asked before 2016) is almost universal.

Peregrina · 17/12/2017 12:22

meanwhile my employer has told us to be 'mindfull' about where we are on 30.3.19 when booking our holidays

The crunch for aviation is going to come long before then, when the new timetables are drawn up, and despite Peter Lilley babbling about 'falling back on WTO rules', it doesn't apply to aviation.

HashiAsLarry · 17/12/2017 12:41

This is interesting for stats heads

@faisalislam

Sample splits: Remain/Leave
Male: 57.5% - 42.5% (higher than other polls)
Female: 54:46
18-24: 76:24
35-54: 58:42
55+: 39:61
Con: 31:69
Lab- 72:28
Degree: 69:31
No quals: 38:62
FT/PT Job: 62:38
Self emp: 55:45
Student: 87:13
Out of work - 6m+: 43:57
Retired: 38:62
LT sick: 44:56

Also this convo from @faisalislam:
The tables have 8% of 2016 Leave voters going Remain and 8% Remain going Leave... but an extraordinary 81% of non EUref voters (too young perhaps??) backing Remain

@rcolvile
V good point from @faisalislam - the swing towards 'Remain' among non-voters in the referendum is v probably young would-have-been-Remainers turning 18 rather than those who abstained going 'My God, if only I'd voted'

Replying to @rcolvile
My theory is this - they didnt get to or get round to vote in 2016, but did in 2017, and will in future - and a far more potent psephological force than the “betrayed Northern leavers” everyone was obsessed with...

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 13:05

derxa Uk animal welfare are indeed higher than those in some E27 countries

  • EU standards are a minimum that all countries must fulfill, but each member can choose to apply higher ones to its own producers

However, after Brexit it is considered essential to have a trade deal of some sort with the US, since the UK will lose the current 50-60 agreements & arrangements with the US that make trade so much easier.

US politicians have been very clear that there will be NO FTA with the UK unless their agribusiness can export to the UK without fulfilling current EU welfare standards

Few in Congress would dare anger the powerful Agribusiness lobby, whose donations can make or break them

"Chlorine chicken", eggs, massive antibiotics etc are to protect the US consumer from lower welfare standards which lead to less healthy meat & eggs
Corn-fed, hormone-ridden beef, animals fed in 100,000 job lots lead to great economies of scale, but a miserable life for the animals.
Hormones that dissolve muscle - while the cattle are still alive - give consumers the tender meat they prefer, but are certainly lower welfare standards for the living animal.

UK farmers would have to drop their standards to match price, but would still likely go broke because they can't equal the huge economies of scale that US conglomerates have

Tanith · 17/12/2017 13:58

It seems the recent death threats have revolted even Theresa May and Boris Johnson. Glad to see them doing the decent thing and condemning them:

http://metro.co.uk/2017/12/17/theresa-may-condemns-death-threats-sent-brexit-rebel-mps-7166093/amp/

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 17/12/2017 14:18

Whereas if it were Corbyn you’d be asking “Why had it taken four days to condemn them?”

Tanith · 17/12/2017 14:51

Would I? What makes you think that?Confused

lalalonglegs · 17/12/2017 14:58

Hmm, I think her condemnation was on the mild side. Yet again a case of TM doing too little, too late.

Tanith · 17/12/2017 15:19

Agreed, but at least she has condemned them this time - I was pleasantly surprised. Also surprised to see Boris Johnson issue what looks like a rebuke to Nadine Dorries for her idiotic deselection remark.

Harriet Harman's debate is going to be very interesting...

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 17/12/2017 16:11

Not you specifically. Sloppy phrasing on my part.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 18:44

Barnier Interview: A reality check ? If only the Uk would listen, instead of blustering

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/they-have-to-face-the-consequences-of-their-own-decision-michel-barnier-speaks-exclusively-on-the-uks-brexit-position

What about his determination to impose the sequencing of the negotiations rather than discussing immediately about trade agreements as the British government had hoped?

“The British had the idea they could mingle everything: the price for past commitments, the financial issue and the future.

first we settle the past, like in any separation, then we start talking about the future.
So parallel talks will start probably next March.
The actual negotiations on the future relationship will only begin once the UK leaves the EU.”

Insofar as Barnier is concerned, Downing Street decided on its own deadline by invoking Article 50 in March,
a move which set a two-year clock ticking down,
and drew its own red lines

He makes no qualms about the complexity of the forthcoming process—or what the British still need to grasp about it.

“The most difficult part remains to be done. It is also probably the most interesting.
But the British have to understand it cannot be business as usual.

We are ready to start working with the government on the three axes it has indicated:
exit from the Union,
exit from the single market,
exit from the customs union.

But the clock is ticking.
The deadline of March 29, 2019 is their own doing”.

he moves determinedly to dash the hopes of many in Britain, including Theresa May, for a bespoke deal for the UK,
something different from the relationship that the EU has with any other countries

“They have to realise there won’t be any cherry picking.
We won’t mix up the various scenarios to create a specific one and accommodate their wishes, mixing, for instance,
the advantages of the Norwegian model, member of the single market,
with the simple requirements of the Canadian one.
No way.
They have to face the consequences of their own decision.”

What about the transition period, supposed to smooth the cliff edge?

“There is no mandate to discuss the transition period yet, but it will be short and duly framed.
Prime Minister May has stated it should take two years—it cannot last longer for legal reasons"

“Any change in the nature or the goals of this negotiation can only be decided by the 27 EU members + 1
The 27 know it is in their interest to remain closely united as they have clearly been in the first phase.
And they will remain so.”

The political scene in London being in constant turmoil, to say the least, how might this impact the process?

“My attitude has been from the very start to listen, to watch and to follow the British political debate, which is quite stimulating.
But I don’t make any comment.
I don’t want to pass judgment on the British negotiators. It is not my role.”

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 18:47

I bet when Barnier retires, his autobiography will feature many scathing anecdotes illustrating "thick as mince" and "lazy as a toad"
as well as the rambling Maybot "let me perfectly clear"

lalalonglegs · 17/12/2017 18:53

We have a leader! Lord Malloch-Brown will co-ordinate Remain campaigns and lobby on behalf of anti-Brexit groups. I hadn't heard of him but he was at the UN for several years (and became deputy secretary-general), worked in the FCO under Gordon Brown and has a background in comms. Someone with a higher profile might have given the role a bit more punch but any port in a storm at this point...

He says: “The aim will be to shift public opinion by the time MPs come next autumn to have the meaningful vote that was agreed last week. We cannot know precisely the Brexit deal that the meaningful vote will be on, but it will be the moment to stop the trainwreck.

“There will not necessarily be a big bang launch, but the new year is likely to see a much more coordinated campaign and a more coherent, consistent message. It will be both more pocketbook and more emotional, looking at issues like the risk to the NHS."

Cailleach1 · 17/12/2017 19:32

BigChoc, your mention of the Sun and their 'news' puts the BBC coverage into perspective.

Tom N-D is on Sunday Politics practically ever week. Today he was on from the Sun and Camilla T was on from the Sunday Express. If you want proper political news coverage, why have writers from these comics in all the time. Just spin, spin and more spin. Gives a break from Oakeshott ( heavy hitting major rational political commentator, so on tv lots in this guise, not)', I guess.

N-D reliably doing his spin. Saying the EU don't know what they want and the UK are ready for a trade deal.

The UK are the ones who don't know what they want. The EU are asking them to say what they want. Also, the EU cannot legally do a deal yet. This is not new. If only Labour didn't have front benchers who in normal times would be on the back benches. Mind you, Cons have these in control, too.

Tanith · 17/12/2017 22:20

“We have a leader! Lord Malloch-Brown will co-ordinate Remain campaigns and lobby on behalf of anti-Brexit groups.”

Good! At last!
And I think he’s absolutely right: people were so shocked to find themselves arguing with dearlly loved family and friends that they have no appetite for a repeat.

I also think that the religious fundamentalist cause has not been considered.
In America particularly, and in some groups here, many fundamentalists regard the rise of Europe as the beginning of the end of the World. They believe firmly that an armed European State will set brother against brother and signal the rise of Satan. It’s their interpretation of the Revelation. I’ve seen and heard people state it as a firmly held belief (they’re the ones that have all Muslims down as a warring race hellbent on wiping out Christianity).

Icantreachthepretzels · 17/12/2017 22:33

I dunno guys,
I hadn't heard of him but he was at the UN for several years (and became deputy secretary-general), worked in the FCO under Gordon Brown and has a background in comms.
He sounds a bit like one of them there experts to me. We've had enough of experts don'tchaknow? They don't beleave enough. Why should anyone listen to this man? he might know what's he's talking about and not just tell us exactly what we want to hear! That's not my Brexit!

SwedishEdith · 17/12/2017 23:09

Carole Cadwalladr‏
@carolecadwalla

Curious...why is @Nigel_Farage deleting all these tweets?

www.politwoops.eu/p/eu/Nigel_Farage

Well.

mybrainhurtsalot · 17/12/2017 23:13

Interesting, Tanith. I have heard of several NI people who believe the Biblical prophesy thing and thus voted leave. I’d assumed it was quite a niche opinion, but perhaps not Shock

lalalonglegs · 17/12/2017 23:20

Didn't a DUP politician claim that the EU symbol of Europa riding a bull was in fact a harlot on the back of the Beast from the Book of Revelations Confused?

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