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Brexit

Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.

971 replies

RedToothBrush · 13/12/2017 19:46

Hot Tramp, I love you so!

The European Parliament have agreed to progress talks to the next stage. Despite Brexiteers saying its not legally binding, it is apparent that the EU certainly disagree.

Not only that, but the wording of the deal goes further. It binds us to not being able to agree and new trade deals for 2 years.

The All Important Amendment 7 to the Great Repel Bill has been successful. May’s power grab has a set back.

By just FOUR votes the government was defeated. How May will be regretting that pointless election tonight.

Parliament will have a meaningful vote on the exit terms.

But don’t be too excited. Brussels might not like this as May can not guarantee the UK will agree to a deal. It means the the EU are negotiating with parliament NOT May now.

There is also the suggestion that the mood of parliament is changing and is beginning to lean more towards a EFTA / EEA type deal.

But equally this could also send us to the brink with a deal from the EU that could be rejected by parliament.

The stakes just got higher.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
41
OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 16/12/2017 22:37

What’s frightening is that as of yet, there doesn’t appear to be much else public outrage or sentiment that this is beyond the pale, so far anyway.

This seems a bit weak for the scale of the problem:

Theresa May
@theresa_may
Threats of violence and intimidation are unacceptable and have no place in our politics. Everybody should be treated with tolerance, decency and respect.

OnTheDarkSideOfTheSpoon · 16/12/2017 22:47

Ah right

Neil Henderson
@hendopolis
SUNDAY EXPRESS: May: I won’t be derailed #tomorrowspaperstoday

Westministenders: Rebel Rebel Your Brexit is a Mess.
BigChocFrenzy · 16/12/2017 23:22

Remain lead increasing: BMG poll for the Independent

51% Remain
41% Leave

After removing DKs:
55.5% Remain
44.5% Leave

BigChocFrenzy · 16/12/2017 23:29

2 Tory Peers warn May of Lords rebellion if the Tory Party keeps bullying Tory rebels opposing hard Brexit

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/16/brexit-vote-to-take-back-control-means-control-by-parliament

"The abuse that has been heaped upon Tory MPs who voted to enable parliament to have a Brexit deal vote was shocking"

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/16/call-off-brexit-bullies-or-face-defeat-tory-peers-tell-theresa-may

Labour’s former deputy leader Harriet Harman is to raise serious concerns in the Commons on Monday about death threats issued against Tory MPs who rebelled last week.
< really strange that it is a Labour figure that has to raise this, rtaher than a leading Tory >
Harman said the atmosphere had been created by a combination of the Brexit debate, social media and pro-Brexit newspapers.
“We have to show that we do not think it is right that people are afraid to vote in parliament for what they think is right because they are afraid they will face death threats,” she said.
It was up to everyone with responsibility – including internet service providers – to think about how they can work together to preserve the democratic system.

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2017 07:32

Pete's happy as usual. Saying to his fellow leavers that they should have listened to him in the first place.

Pete North @ petenorth303

  1. So, leavers, here's what's going to happen. The penny will drop with Brexiter MPs that the transition is continuity membership for two or more years with no voting rights. They'll stamp their feet and demand concessions but eventually realise they have no choice in the matter
  2. They will insist we have full trade talks inside the framework of Article 50 where we shall have to explain very slowly and very carefully to thickos like Kate Hoey that this cannot happen - and was never going to happen.
  3. The government will fanny around having a pointless argument about it then cave in when time runs out. They will ask for the freedom to diverge and sign trade deals in the interim and the EU will say no. Because a) it can, and b) it's not possible anyway.
  4. Then it goes for a round of rubber stamping amidst Brexiter wails of betrayal. Parliament then gets the choice of accepting the terms (the ones they demanded we cave in to) or ultra hard WTO brexit. YAY for "meaningful votes". YAY!
  5. This is when the Ultras try to derail it. They will probably fail and we head into the transition where they will then claim we can do a quickie deal, again ignoring the 300 or so areas technical debate.
  6. We then begin the long and tedious process of doing a trade deal in which all the remainer suits move in to build an FTA - one that hands over all the crown jewels to Brussels and makes us a supplicant of the ECJ. This will take five years by the way.
  7. Brexiters will wail - but that's when I get to have a lot of fun in pointing out that if we had gone via the EEA we would already be out and already negotiating new deals.
  8. From the beginning there was a quick and safe way out of the EU. But its fiercest opponents were John Redwood, Peter Lilley, Owen Paterson, Rees-Mogg, Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Arron Banks, Julia Dunning-Kruger, Kate Hoey, Gisela Stuart, and all the Vote Leave morons.
  9. Then we will start seeing a lot of jobs relocating and businesses folding as we lose preferential market access. The Tory right will be completely marginalised and Brexiters will be hated.
10. You then yet to watch from the sidelines as the UK begs the EU to grant it single market access - and will trade away sovereignty and open the border to even fuller freedom of movement to get it. 11. And the reason for this? You believed every single one of the remainer lies about the Norway option. You bought it hook, line and sinker - and did their jobs for them. 12. Y'all brainlessly worshipped Rees-Mogg and shared BrexitCentral drivel without once taking the effort to familiarise yourselves with the details. You'll stamp your feet but ultimately you'll be getting exactly what you demanded. 13. Y'see, you insisted the EEA was remaining in the EU. You insisted you wanted only an FTA. You insisted we went the long way around for a "clean Brexit". Well, morons, enjoy it - because this is the Brexit you campaigned for. 14. We could have prepared the ground before invoking article 50, set up to move to Efta and then used the A50 process to adapt the EEA. We could then have used it as a departure framework from outside the EU. We'd be out by next year. But no. Brexiters wanted this instead.
OP posts:
annandale · 17/12/2017 07:37

Gosh he's angry isn't he. Does it not occur to him that if there was no consensus about the type of leaving, with the worst leave option being much worse than remaining, it would be better to remain? That was my basic thought process in May 2016.

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2017 07:45

Boris is happy as usual:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/17/boris-johnson-warns-uk-cannot-become-vassal-state-eu/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
Boris Johnson warns UK cannot become 'vassal state' of EU

OP posts:
missmoon · 17/12/2017 07:48

Pete North forgets (or wilfully ignores) the fact that when parliament gets a meaningful vote, they can reject the deal and ask for either an A50 extension, or for the A50 notification to be withdrawn. Although the EU27 would (probably) have to agree.

RedToothBrush · 17/12/2017 07:51

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
I just told @SkyNews that the likely trade deal - Canada with a bit of plus - will not be optimal for either side. Both EU and UK putting political principles (eg no free movement for UK, no 'cherry picking' for EU) ahead of economically optimal outcomes.

EuroDublin @ Londoners
A single market is meaningless without for eg regulatory alignment. This isn’t a “political cherry picking” point

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
In theory you are right. In practice single market is imperfect and has many holes and inconsistencies, eg France and Germany have both thwarted Commission's efforts to open up services markets.

James @ jamesnewman1989
Didn't UK also block services during CETA deal?

Charles tannock @ Charlestannock
Certainly I've heard that it was UK which blocked Canadian request to include more services in CETA deal during negotiations.

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
Not as far as is I know but maybe others know more. CETA has some services included but not finance, aviation, media. UK was always for liberalising services within EU, as is Commission. On TTIP the US prevented financial services being included.

Moon_NZ @ zhudigrandmoon
So EEA is the only choice if Britain wants to keep financial services?

Charles Grant @ CER_Grant
EEA probably only option if UK wants to stay fully in single market for financial services, yes

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 08:05

NI - DUP are NOT representative of more than a hardline minority

It is only because of Tory party desperation to stay in office that gives such power to less than 1% of voters in the UK
Rule of 65 million others by a tiny, far right, religious cabal Angry

Referendum in NI was strongly Remain
Remain 56% vs 44% Leave

2017 GE (FPTP)
DUP 36%

2017 Assembly Elections (PR)
DUP 28.1%
Sinn Fein 27.9%
5 of the 6 parties in NI were for Remain

Opinion poll early December
Asking which was preferable: reunification with the rest of Ireland or Hard Brexit

Reuniification 48%
Hard Brexit 45%

woman11017 · 17/12/2017 08:42

North should maybe have a chat with her upstairs.
Justin Welby "It would be very good to have a ceasefire". Shock "We have made a decision about brexit. We should make a success of brexit"
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42198627
stopfundinghate.org.uk
John Lewis, Sainsbury’s, Marks and Spencer and Waitrose all regularly advertise in the Daily Mail, Daily Express and Sun – all newspapers that have been called out by the United Nations for their divisive and often hateful content.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:08

(paywall) Brexit: Europe cheers May in hope she will carry on conceding

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-europe-cheers-may-in-hope-she-will-carry-on-conceding-nldvktctt

It is one of the strange features of European summit meetings that they are closed affairs:
held without aides,
the 28 leaders alone in the room together with their only access to the outside world being their phones.

So when German media began reporting last night that Theresa May had been given a round of applause for her speech marking the conclusion of the first round of Brexit talks there was only one source:

Angela Merkel, updating her aides by email.
< May didn't update her aides and they had to ask her if it was true she was applauded >

Up until recently there were some in the EU who doubted Mrs May’s ability to make the compromises necessary to get this far.

Yet she did, and the positive response at home was a welcome surprise to Europeans.

They believe that Mrs May is their best prospect for concluding a deal.

They fear that if she is toppled then negotiations with her successor would be much, much tougher.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:15

(paywall) Hammond angry at Davis’s ‘bonkers’ plan for Brexit

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hammond-angry-at-daviss-bonkers-plan-for-brexit-3chsvf65t

Philip Hammond and David Davis had a row on Wednesday that left the chancellor fuming and fearing his colleague’s post-Brexit plan was “bonkers”.

They met before the cabinet convenes on Tuesday to discuss what Britain should look like after the end of the Brexit transition period.
It will see secretaries of state air their views for the first time < Shock still horrified at tat > on how closely Britain should remain aligned with EU rules.

One source said that at the heart of their disagreement was the future economic relationship with the EU and characterised it as a “big barney”.

The row centred on Mr Davis’s plan to push for a Canadian-style trade agreement with the EU after Brexit,
an aim he has stated publicly and which Mr Hammond fears would damage the economy.

He believes Britain should stay much more closely-aligned with the EU to secure the strongest-possible trading relationship, even if it means sacrificing some sovereignty.

In the autumn, Mr Hammond was saying there could be payments for market access, something Mr Davis rejects.
The chancellor has challenged colleagues who want to pull away quickly from the EU to name Brussels regulations they believe must be scrapped
which they could get through the current parliament.

The pair also disagreed about the Brexit “divorce” bill.
Mr Hammond said before the Treasury select committee that it must be paid in all circumstances, even if there is no deal,
a position rejected by Mr Davis and No 10. < until she does U-turn #47 >

After the meeting, Mr Hammond sat alongside Theresa May looking furious for most of prime minister’s questions < Grin he always looks a miserable sod >

One government source said that there was scope for Mr Hammond to change his views:
“He is not ideological about this, he’s fiercely practical.”

Eeeeeowwwfftz · 17/12/2017 09:19

The BMG poll is encouraging but it would be nice if we could get to the point of not having to exclude the DKs to get a substantial lead. Perhaps Labour will feel more emboldened if this trend continues.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:25

(paywall) Booker: This Brexit deal has merely lengthened the fuse of the inevitable time bomb

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/16/brexit-deal-has-merely-lengthened-fuse-inevitable-time-bomb/

Even greater mayhem will erupt when the issues punted into ‘phase two’ come home to roost

Twice in a week we have been treated to euphoric claims about how well Theresa May’s approach to Brexit is now going down with her EU colleagues,

But one must wonder whether our own politicians have all decided to take to heart that recent comment on his job from David Davis: Grin
“I don’t have to be very clever. I don’t have to know very much.”

Behind all the fluff and wishful thinking, do any of them have any real idea even of where we have got to so far,
let alone where we may be heading for?

For a start, none of the three “Phase One” issues has yet been fully resolved.

The EU has made clear that by March it expects a legally binding agreement on all three, including that of the Northern Irish border,

on which Mrs May has not yet given the faintest clue as to how she thinks in practice this could be done,

The only other two issues yet on the table are that

Mrs May must explain, first, what she means by that “deep and special relationship” she keeps going on about;
and, second, the nature of those “transition” arrangements allowing us to remain in the single market for two or more years even after we leave the EU in March 2019.

The EU has made clear that this will require a very complex agreement which could take up to October to complete,
requiring the UK to meet all the legal and financial commitments it would entail, justiciable by the European Court of Justice.

When our politicians finally grasp that, during this “transition”,
we will still in effect be in the EU for two or more years after we have left it, without any power to influence its rules,
all hell will break loose.

Even greater mayhem will erupt when they realise that the EU’s rules cannot allow us to begin negotiating that even more complex “trade deal” until we have left,^^
possibly condemning us to spin on in that “half-in, half-out” transition stage for five years or more after we voted to do so.

Like David “I don’t have to know very much” Davis,
not a single politician seems yet to have woken up to just what a minefield all this is heading for.

To the rage of those of my readers Grin who seem to understand as little of the facts as our MPs < Grin but btl comments on his articles are shocking >

I can only repeat that,
if only Mrs May’s had not been reckless enough to decide that we should leave the European Economic Area,
95 percent of all these tortuous problems need never have arisen.

woman11017 · 17/12/2017 09:25

The spectacle of a control freak losing control is generally satisfying, but not to Tories who are angry about the government’s first major defeat in parliament since the election. Casting around for places to allocate the blame, some fingers are being pointed at Julian Smith

The relatively new chief whip is being accused of misreading and mishandling the rebellion that saw Tory MPs combine with the opposition to insert a legal guarantee that parliament will have a vote on the eventual Brexit deal. “The first job of the chief is to be able to count,” complain some of his colleagues, echoing Lyndon Johnson’s famous saying about what most matters in politics

A final reason for Mrs May and her whips to worry about this defeat is that rebellion can be contagious. As one veteran rebel against his party once put it to me: “It’s like murder is said to be. The first time is the hardest. The more often you do it, the easier it gets

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/17/the-tory-rebels-are-emboldened-by-their-success-they-will-not-stop-now

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:30

And leading HoL Tories have warned they are MORE likely to rebel, because of the orchestrated hate campaign against Tory rebel MPs

  • lords also have less pressure, as they can't be deselected (sacking & stacking the HoL is not possible without a substantial HoC majority)
woman11017 · 17/12/2017 09:37

She's not a student of history is she BCF.?

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:46

I see the parallel to the hard right extremism and aggression in the USA,

where a white majority electorate - who have had the power since the USA was founded - swung hard right long before Trump,
outrage / identity politics, because they saw demographics will take away their electoral majority by about 2035.

They want to change the country's institutions, to freeze their privileged position on top, even after whites become a minority.

The Republican Congress is busy passing measures for "their side" to retain power after their majority has gone:
cementing in judges that will determine the rules for the next 30 years
slashing taxes for the very rich
Gerrymandering the economy and levers of power

Similar too to NI, where the DUP fanatics are trying to gerrymander the future, to smash the GFA and make a clear border with the RoI

  • they want no economic border, but want to block everything else - cake & eat it

The DUP got 36% under fptp (GEO, but only 28.1% under PR (Assembly) so they are defying the numbers already

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:49

While you’re looking the other way, Trump is changing America for decades to come
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/dec/15/trump-changing-america-president-tweets-russia

Bernie Sanders: Trump tax cuts a barely disguised reward for billionaire donors
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/16/bernie-sanders-tax-bill-republicans-trump

woman11017 · 17/12/2017 09:50

In US as Mueller investigations intensify, and questions over POTUS's response, there is a clear threat to civil law.

Rule of law is being openly flouted here by government, press and terrorist groups like BF.

Very serious implications.

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 09:50

The Vermont senator tells the Guardian why the tax bill – which could become law next week – is the result of 40 years’ scheming by the Kochs and others

BigChocFrenzy · 17/12/2017 10:08

Outrageous how the govt is so craven / sympathetic wrt Heil demonisations of MPs and judges,
of their rewriting history in denial that a rightwing terrorist murdered a British MP for her political views

I suppose at least the UK hasn't quite got to the stage of the PM claiming both sides are the same, the (far right only) terrorists and the victims

Online though, including on MN, hypersensitive far right apologists claim they are the persecuted ones.
In their paranoid fantasies, classic far right

Any correction of false facts, any expression of opposing views by imdividuals are regarded as persecution
Actual demonisation by the Heil, an actual murder by terrorists, is not regarded as persecution - because they sympatise with the political views of the perpetrators

The little boy who cried out: "the King is in the Altogether " would be in serious danger now

lonelyplanetmum · 17/12/2017 10:19

Big chocs post*
*
The Chancellor asked the Hard Brexit brigade to " to name Brussels regulations they believe must be scrapped "

I know this thread is extremely informative and learned, but I find it a little worrying that professional top tier politicians are debating at the same level and using the same points as are used on here.

lonelyplanetmum · 17/12/2017 10:27

In reference to Bigchocs earlier post about the row between Hammond and Davis.

Next week I'm going to write to Davis explaining the difference between regulatory alignment over food, agriculture and some workers rights. I shall compare these to the many things we have always unilaterally determined like Health, Education, Defence, Fiscal policy, Pensions, Elderly social care, policing, property law, succession etc etc.
I really am. If Hammond is debating with him at that low level, Davis clearly still needs a basic lesson on the relatively minor shared control EU membership entailed.