Westministenders: The Art of the Deal

[RedToothBrush]

Well Trump seems to have put his foot in it.

Not that this should come as a surprise. For all the talk of closer ties with the US that was never going to happen. All that was need was for Trump to over step once too many.

By chance (?) Barnier also raised questions about our commitment to working with the EU on security.

Its almost as if we are being asked to choose whom we look to for security.

Meanwhile it sounds like the divorce bill is sorted - though this may not be as settled as that, if it comes with conditions. The deal might also be backtracked on, seeing as that appears to be the done thing presently.

Talks on Ireland are stalemated with Ireland threating to veto. No sign of a breakthrough here yet.

Talks on EU citz rights are reportedly going backwards (again) rather than going forward.

All of this is theatre for a British audience though, with the UK agreeing to everything. Because they gave again their cards when a50 was triggered.

The crunch is coming on whether we move to stage two before Christmas. We have no time to lose.

I don't know how upset I would be about the end of the UK or whether I would be upset at all. However, I doubt whether the extreme Tory right really want this, and will make sure that they blame everyone else but their own self-centred behaviour.

Don't forget the UK as it is constituted now has been in existence for under 100 years.

This is a genuine question because my geography is appalling but how many countries have a natural border in between it, with the separate part bordering another country?

I can only think of USA and Alaska (not quite the same as there's an entire country and not just a natural feature). For obvious reasons there's borders there.

Russia has an enclave between Lithuania and Poland.

I don't know whether the Spanish enclaves in Morocco would count too? I don't know if they are regarded as Spain.

Wasn't the government discovered to be breaching disabled people's human rights by the UN recently? I think it was branded a "human catastrophe". It's good to see they've taken their responsibilities of caring for the more vulnerable more seriously since then:

UK government warned over sharp rise in child and pensioner poverty
Almost 400,000 more UK children and 300,000 more pensioners plunged into poverty in past four years, new study finds

www.theguardian.com/society/2017/dec/04/uk-government-warned-over-sharp-rise-children-pensioner-poverty-study?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Kaliningrad.

NI is a different kettle of fish still, though. I know JRM said it is as British (sic) as Somerset, but is it really? Despite drawing the boundary to create a 70/30 British identifying majority, this is changing daily. Reaching parity, with more young people tipping the balance the other way in the future. Not by other people moving in, but by the natural recovery of the 'natives' so to speak. Not that this should matter one jot in a pluralist, civic society, but the very raison d'etre of NI was to ring fence an area in Ireland for a British identifying population. The GFA provides for a referendum in which a majority of NI and Irish people can decide if it remains part of the UK or not. Of course, non-British people in NI could still favour to remain in the UK for a variety of reasons.

I think now that the demographics are changing, the British gov't and their influencers are angling for possession rather than the will of a majority. Could be wrong. The will of the majority was good while the demographics favoured the Union. If this changes, I think possession is 9/10th of the law will be the angle.

Somerset doesn't have a population of dual citizenship and is not on a separate island to Britain. It is a bit silly to proffer this as the yardstick. I don't remember the army being on their streets or firing rubber bullets at civilians.

You cannot take the politics out of it. Alaska doesn't have nigh on half the population (and changing daily) who could possibly identify as non Americans. You aren't ripping away the panacea which is helping soothe tensions. Not making people really have to identify one way or the other. Fault lines are potentially being brought in.

Beth Rigby
@BethRigby
NEW: No 10 sources; “We’ve never described today as a deadline. It’s a staging post on the road to the Dec Council” > not what Tusk said - today seen as firm deadline in Brussels

David Allen Green‏
@davidallengreen
A short thread about why today matters for Brexit. A big day (potentially). /1
There is no grand formal EU meeting today. That is next week.
But today we may find out if it is likely that next week's meeting will decide there has been "sufficient progress"./2
What is "sufficient progress"?
It is not a phrase used in Article 50. It is not a formal legal step towards Brexit. /3
"Sufficient progress" was a term introduced in to the Brexit process by the EU27, and it was adopted in the EU's "guidelines" of April 2017 (a month after the Article 50 notification). It had been in drafts beforehand. www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/04/29/euco-brexit-guidelines/ /4
"The European Council will monitor progress closely and determine when sufficient progress has been achieved to allow negotiations to proceed to the next phase." /5
And re future EU-UK relationship:
"We stand ready to engage...as soon as the European Council decides that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase towards reaching a satisfactory agreement on the arrangements for an orderly withdrawal." /6
(As always with the EU and Brexit - the best guide to the EU's position is to read what the EU actually has said - in full view.
Usual UK punditry winging it on basis of briefings at a disadvantage here - just read what the relevant documents say.)
The "sufficient progress" step served two related purposes for EU27.
First, to ensure what was needed for an "orderly Brexit" was prioritised.
Second, to maximise EU leverage on the "orderly Brexit" issues of cash, citizenship and Irish border. /8
Note for EU27 this negotiation "sequencing" strategy was not hidden. No cards close to chest. The EU27 were giving, in effect, a "running commentary".
But the UK chose to not take it seriously.
May, Davis and @DExEUgov believed it could wave "sequencing" away. /9
Davis boasted and blustered that UK would win the "row of the summer" on "sequencing".
But EU27 stood firm. First talks were at stake. Article 50 clock ticking.
Davis then capitulated, even before midsummer's day.

UK accepted "sequencing".
A die was cast. /10
And what happens today, and next week, flows directly from EU27 seeking to structure the negotiations to their advantage from the beginning, and the UK conceding to EU27 on this. /11
There is nothing - nothing at all - at law which requires there has to be a "sufficient progress" stage in the Article 50 process.

Down to EU27 and UK to agree the stages of the process, which they did. /12
EU27 had simply planned backwards from what they wanted to achieve at each stage. As long as they kept unity (which they have), then a question of patience.
Ireland now has maximum chance to exert influence on process, with EU27 unanimity at its back. /13
And this is not a one-off.
Similar thinking has already gone into stages yet to come - beyond A50 and the FTA/trade deal. /14
This is not to overrate EU's prowess. Just a statement of how the EU approaches all its negotiations. Greece. CETA.
Realism, pressure points, process, bureaucracy.
It is what the EU does.
In contrast, UK no negotiation experience for over 40 years. It shows. /15
Whatever the outcome of the next few days - "sufficient progress", a fudge or even no "sufficient progress" - the process is far from over.
Indeed, the harder stuff is still to come. And EU27 is already preparing.
UK has to start taking the process far more seriously.
/ends

cail looking at solely an internal border situation, I don't think the sea border itself is that unique. Hence where my Alaska comment came from. There's clearly an internal border there. And possibly in other places if I had better geography and could tell the difference between counties and enclaves etc! I'm still largely sure that without the UK as a whole staying in the single market then the UK ends. Not overnight but eventually whether that's ni, Scotland or both withdrawing.

Its so typical of the Tories to think that if they deal with the money that would be enough. That's practically their mantra, money first, people second. Except the EU don't see things like that. And that is what we are losing.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/12/04/ipso-launches-new-symbol-fight-against-fake-news/?utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter
Ipso launches new symbol in fight against 'fake news'

A newspaper industry logo has been launched to reassure readers that they are being protected from ‘fake news’.

The new symbol has been produced by the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) to help the public in ensuring that what they read is genuine rather than ‘fake news’.

Newspapers, websites and magazines signed up to Ipso, which includes the Daily Telegraph, theSundayTelegraph andtelegraph.co.uk, will be able to use the logo as a guarantee to readers they are not being misled. The slogan that accompanies the symbol states: “For press freedom with responsibility”.

I could cry.

politicalscrapbook.net/2017/12/theresa-mays-weak-response-to-trump-tweets-mocked-on-us-tv/#more-68717
Theresa May’s weak response to Trump tweets mocked on US TV

You know its bad when SNL does Theresa May.

I wonder if this will ever come of this or whether it'll be a cover up situation. I suspect it'll be the latter

10 arrested in Daphne Caruana Galizia murder case

edition.cnn.com/2017/12/04/europe/daphne-caruana-galizia-arrests-intl/index.html

Newspapers, websites and magazines signed up to Ipso, which includes the Daily Telegraph, theSundayTelegraph andtelegraph.co.uk, will be able to use the logo as a guarantee to readers they are not being misled. The slogan that accompanies the symbol states: “For press freedom with responsibility”.

Unless, until, and only when errors in fact are corrected with the same display (i.e. same page, typeface and page area) as the original article will I have any faith in "approved news".

Faisal Islam
@faisalislam

Verhofstadt leasays there is “no deal” as of now, it is “50:50” whether there could be one today... says money is done but has concerns on citizens rights

Tony Connelly
@tconnellyRTE
BREAKING: UK will concede that there will be no "regulatory divergence" on the island of Ireland on the single market and customs union, acc to a draft text seen by @rtenews

Wow. How will this play out?

Hashi, I was really referring to JRM's reference to Somerset vis a vis NI, but adding in the other examples of separate areas to nation states. and then probably flow away from the point

I understand your reference.

www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2017/1204/924815-single-market-eu-negotiations/

"The text says that the UK has agreed that the Good Friday Agreement will be protected."

Imagine they have had to try to pin them down on this. A treaty to which they are co-guarantors. What a bunch of weasels the present lot are.

Surely if Northern Ireland gets this Scotland will want it too?

May we be cursed to live in interesting times.

When details of the cash came out, David Allen Green pointed out that on that the UK have bowed to the EU. On citizens rights there's some bowing there too. The only place they couldn't move towards the EU was NI as the EU didn't have a position. Seems like in the absence of that they've gone to ROIs solution. The UK team are a complete shower aren't they?

May we be cursed to live in interesting times.

When details of the cash came out, David Allen Green pointed out that on that the UK have bowed to the EU. On citizens rights there's some bowing there too. The only place they couldn't move towards the EU was NI as the EU didn't have a position. Seems like in the absence of that they've gone to ROIs solution. The UK team are a complete shower aren't they?

I imagine Nicola Sturgeon is paying full attention. No treaty to uphold, though.

I'd say any trust exercise is out. Get it in writing.

Wow. How will this play out?

Devo max.

MyNewName this could be problematic for Scotland as creates potential for divergence between NI and Scotland. Ideally Scotland wants to protect NI / EU trade and rUK trade. This does not do that and may in time force a choice in some sectors. Giving the same deal to Scotland would not solve the problem.

@faisalislam
Also - if N. Ireland gets this, Nigel Dodds said to me on Thursday that Scotland will ask for the same deal

Now to await Arlene, Sturgeon, Khan, etc etc etc.

My prediction:

DUP will kick off and refuse to support government any longer (will abstain rather than vote against but TM can't afford even that). Crucial legislation will fail to get through because of this, government will fall. New elections. Whoever gets in - unless John Redwood ends up leading the party - will concede that we need to stay in the SM at least for the time being. Pressure from Scotland and Wales (and perhaps English regions) for this solution.