Westministenders: A week in politics is a long time....

[RedToothBrush]

Lost track of politics in the last week or so?

Someone asked how do I keep on top of this? I’ve struggled this week there is so much going on.

Brexit seems to be on a bit of a back burner and we have become utterly swamped in mud and sleaze and corruption allegations

So here is a summary of the last week:

1. Government defeated over the impact reports due to an ancient parliamentary protocol. They must release papers to the public though this is likely to be heavily redacted.
2. Currently we are holding talks about talks with the EU. Instead of speeding up talks. They are annoyed at us for this.
3. Baroness Anelay, the minister responsible for getting the Repel Bill through the Lords, quit citing an injury caused by jumping out of a helicopter several years ago. She was the second person to quit this role. Lord Bridges quit saying it was impossible task.
4. Michael Gove has joined the Brexit Cabinet, which now has a majority of Leavers.
5. There is currently no one employed at the Brexit department for strategic planning.
6. Brexit Bill likely to face even more opposition in the face of Williamson’s self promotion. More Remainers who have been loyal to May talking of joining the Rebel Forces.
7. The has been a threat to rig the Lords to pass the Repel Bill according to Lord Adonis
8. Clegg, Adonis and Clarke went to see Barnier. Farage got jealous.
9. Talks for Stormont broke down. No direct rule but not home rule. Who is ruling is a mystery, but the same can be said in England at present. DUP are not getting their dosh.
10. FTA may not be possible on lines UK want as it would be better than Canada and South Korea and that’s not legally allowed. The real problem for the UK is services.
11. EHCR related issues – prisoner voting rights and letter to Romanian which brings into question whether the EHCR is deliberately being flouted.
12. Clause in the data protection bill which allows it to be ignored ‘cos immigration’.
13. The Electoral Commission are being sued for allowing over spending by Vote Leave
14. Arron Banks is being investigated by the Electoral Commission over how he donated to political causes
15. UKIP whistleblowers reported donations they thought were odd and not declared but only just has come to light
16. Arron Banks is winding up a charity under investigation by the Charities Commission
17. Arron Banks paid for Kate Hoey to go to Washington DC.
18. Lord Ashcroft apparently exposed by the Bermuda hack, like Robert Mercer
19. Steve Baker reported for taking money from the mysterious donor to the DUP
20. Priti Patel breaks ministerial code with an undisclosed trip to Israel with lobbyist. May says she has done nothing wrong, despite it being clear breech of the rules.
21. Michael Fallon quit over multiple incidents
22. Damien Green embroiled in accusation over Kate Maltby. Also having a fight with former counter terrorism copper who he has history with over ‘extreme porn’ found on his computer during a raid. Copper previously said he had been set up in the paper but dropped the accusation. Green is denying everything
23. Charlie Elphicke has had the whip removed and case has been referred to police. Says he has done nothing wrong and isn’t even aware of what he has been accused of.
24. Steven Crabb under investigation for sexting. Has apologised.
25. Michael Garnier under investigation for dildo buying. Has apologised
26. Daniel Kawcyznski allegedly tried to set up dates with aides and wealthy friends
27. Dan Poulter reported by fellow tory MP Andrew Bridgen for allegedly putting hands up skirts. Whips told in 2010.
28. Chris Pincher alleged pound shop Weinstein who attempted to untuck the shirt of former Olympic rower and tory activist Alex Story.
29. Gavin Barwell former whip and May’s special adviser. Broke special advisor code by tweeting politically controversial things. Is accused of being complicit in hiding the bodies and not taking action.
30. Gavin Williamson gave himself a promotion and pissed everyone off. As former whip knows all the dirt but is vulnerable as a result of that, as he didn’t report or discipline offenders.
31. ‘The Lift Lunger’ – as yet unnamed Tory MP said to have ‘attacked’ Labour MP in taxi. Date rape drugs possibly involved.
32. Boris Johnson, Alok Sharma and Tobias Ellwood all named as having contact with the mysterious Maltese professor named in the Papadopoulos indictment.
33. Farage makes anti-Semitic remarks on LBC. That’s Farage, a person of interest to the FBI.
34. Three indictments in USA for Trump Russia. Which implicate a whole load of people by association.
35. Some stuff is going on in Saudi Arabia which should have half an eye kept on it.
36. Jared O’Mara, Clive Lewis, Ivan Lewis and Kelvin Hopkins on the Labour Shit List. Also a rape allegation against a Labour activist which was shut down by a senior Labour figure

This week the Repel Bill and the Budget. Plus no doubt, lots more scandal.

no officials were present and no minutes kept?

So newspapers should be printing the most outlandish non-libellous stories they can find. After all, no officials, no minutes=no rebuttals.

I have a particular aversion to Priti Thick-Patel ... she's the worst kind of soundbite politician. She'd be laughable if her entire rationale for supporting the death penalty wasn't just "DNA, innit".

WARNING: Ian Hislop ahead

Delurking for a dim question but what business would PP pursue in Israel? I can't make any sense of it .

Delurking for a dim question but what business would PP pursue in Israel?

Advancing the concerns of her Muslim constituents about Israels stance on Palestine ?

No officials, no minutes, remember.

Oh, I didn't know she is Muslim. Mhm, such a controversial and loaded topic really should be addressed in the most transparent way.

Oh, I didn't know she is Muslim

I didn't say she was. I have no idea what her actual religion - if any - is.

However, her cultural heritage is Sikh - her parents were Ugandan Asians (who got out just before Amin kicked all the Ugandan Asians out).

My comment was a tad goady. Or at least I hope it was.

Wilbur Ross, the US commerce secretary, has said that he hopes the UK and the US will be able to agree a post-Brexit free trade in “less than a decade”

< Well that's buggered the govt Brexit plan.
Have Fox & DD spoken to him at all, to get a reality check ?
The US FTA was supposed to be their great hope, with Trump their saviour >

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/nov/06/cbi-tells-may-that-business-needs-clarity-over-brexit-transition-by-christmas-politics-live?page=with:block-5a005295d0f0f605cdd88228#block-5a005295d0f0f605cdd88228

As the Press Association reports, Ross was speaking at the end of a visit to the UK.
He described an FTA with the UK as a priority for Washington, but admitted that it would be “very complex” to complete.

Asked whether a UK FTA could take as long as 10 years, he said:

I hesitate to put an exact parameter of dates on it. Hopefully not a decade.

It isn’t that I’m forecasting that it will take a decade ...
It’ll take whatever time it takes

Patel keeps being touted as a future PM
I see no vestige of talent to justify this
She is ignorant and not very scrupulous in her politics

So she fits well in the current govt

Hmmmm ...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/nov/06/eu-firms-warn-of-deserting-uk-suppliers-after-brexit

British exporters have been put on notice that they could lose billions of pounds worth of business
after almost two-thirds of EU businesses who work with UK suppliers warned they expect to use more firms inside the single market after Brexit.

< no wonder the CBI welcomed Corbyn at their conference. Desperation >

after almost two-thirds of EU businesses who work with UK suppliers warned they expect to use more firms inside the single market after Brexit.

Well, why wouldn't they ?

@jonlis1

Back from meetings in Brussels. There's good news and bad news. First, the bad news. Because it's... extremely bad. 1/
2/ While consensus in London seems to assume trade talks kick off in December, senior EU officials now consider this, on balance, unlikely
3/ Brussels monitors UK media & ministers' statements - they can see PM has been backtracking since Florence - ie backtracking to cliff-edge
4/ Behind the scenes, also evidence that UK has reneged on guarantees for citizens that it initially signalled it would make. Really bad.
5/ As for money, if May insists she can't make any further commitments, EU will not trigger trade talks in December. It's that simple.
6/ EU went as far as it could in Oct. Nobody's asking for precise figure, just specific commitments. €60bn the ballpark figure.
7/ UK Government knows all this, incidentally. They're in denial about it. But what happens if they test EU anyway?
8/ If no agreement in Dec, next opportunity to kick-start talks is in March. That leaves 7 months to agree deal. They can't, and won't.
9/ All of this means, we're heading for crisis (and economic shock) very soon - December or January - unless UK comes to its senses.
10/ EU fears May, when rebuffed in Dec through her instransigence, will retreat to comforting insanity of Redwood/Mogg Brexit utopia. BAD.
11/ So senior EU officials now putting chances of no-deal at over 50%, and making detailed impact assessments about what it means for EU
12/ EU officials don't think UK Gov working in national interest; worse, believe May & Davis don't understand process, or what no-deal means
13/ EU unsure whether civil servants not telling ministers truth, or if ministers just aren't listening- but UK incompetence is mystifying
14/ One official agreed that Davis's recent remark on negotiations going down to wire, after EU Parl't vote, was lunacy. EP vote is final.
15/ Which brings us to the centrality of the misunderstanding. Brexit is a political, but far more importantly, a legal process.
16/ Article 50 rules must be obeyed. Which means, everything must be agreed by European Parliament. And that means, everything.
17/ So when Davis says that we'll have a basic deal, on eg aviation, but without things we want, that must also be approved by EU Parl't.
18/ And here's the thing: it won't happen. EU conditions for deal are € above all else: if UK refuses to pay everything, no deal on anything
19/ If UK planning to leave hole in EU budget, forget about 'deal no deal', 'basic deal', or 'orderly no deal'. No deal means no deal.
20/ That means no aviation, drastically curbed radiotherapy. No transfer of nuclear material unless UK's undergone exhaustive IAEA process
21/ EU thinks UK won't easily be able to resurrect old aviation treaties, and a new one will take 2 years. This also requires goodwill.
22/ EU also fears Gov won't walk away, but just let clock tick - a no-deal by accident or incapacity. Followed by 'bloody unreasonable EU'.
23/ EU also not concerned about its own unity - in a crisis, officials think member states will rally round, not peel off. Unlike in UK.

We need to talk about Nigel:
www.byline.com/column/67/article/1929

Intelligence services ‘wary of sharing information with Boris Johnson because they don’t trust him
uk.news.yahoo.com/intelligence-services-wary-sharing-information-boris-johnson-dont-trust-144437322.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw

A wee bit apocalyptic this one, written last February.
A 15-step portrait of the Brexit fallout Leave voters didn't see coming
www.commonspace.scot/articles/10332/jj-patrick-15-step-portrait-brexit-fallout-leave-voters-didnt-see-coming

The th8ng is companies are not going to switch for British companies to companies inside the EU27 at the last minute.
Switching suppliers take time.
If the British government is set in finalising things right at the last minute, this means companies will already made the switch. ‘Just in case’
It also means this will be a major headache for the British economy. Well... a disaster really. Because of the domino effect (if a lot of companies loose their contract with Europe, this will also mean a lot of other companies loosing their own contract with said suppliers...)

What business could PP gain in Israel?
Well these far right lots like to band together. On a previous thread there was some analysis of Israel's government and their seemingly unlikely allying with Trump over the white supremacist issue iirc.

Sam Coates Times‏*@SamCoatesTimes*

"The PM met the Secretary of State this morning to remind her of the obligations which exist under the Ministerial Code."

facepalm

‏
Part 3 of thread:

@jonlis
24/ This, regrettably, is not the only bad news.
Let's assume UK does come to its senses before December summit, and talks progress.
25/ As Barnier's made clear, there's no bespoke transition. That means we have to stay in EEA, and to make that seamless, apply to join EFTA
26/ EFTA officials confident UK could apply to join EFTA quite quickly & provisionally apply agreement for Mar 19, seamlessly staying in EEA
27/ This, provided Norway & Iceland happy to let UK in for transitional period. But they would be under great pressure to allow it.
28/ Might even be possible for UK to negotiate 'associate' EFTA status so doesn't have to apply to join EFTA's trade deals (big concession)
29/ Only... Northern Ireland is ruined, because off-shelf EEA agreement excludes agriculture. Which means full WTO tariffs. No ifs, no buts.
30/ EEA Agreement Article 19 provides framework for agri liberalisation- but needs to be negotiated from scratch. Norway's deal took 2yrs.
31/ So Davis was right to say, last Tuesday, that new tariffs would be 'a real problem' for NI. It's a problem he's determined to make real.
32/ *So, I hear you ask, where's the good news?
Easy. If UK wants to extend A50, or revoke it, just say magic word. Even at last minute

33/ Can negotiate new aviation treaty, new agri provisions to top up EEA, or a new trade deal, while comfortably still in EU.
34/ Senior officials describe difficulty of UK participating in EU elections as 'lowest priority'. Avoiding cliff-edge much more important.
35/ EU doubts PM has authority to pull this off. Easier for her to drag us off cliff than show humility/common sense. But there's still time
36/ It's not too late to see this cliff-edge & prevent what's otherwise an unavoidable catastrophe. All they need to do is open their eyes.
37/ That was the news. If anyone's friends with Theresa or David, please let them know.

woman I dint know about you but that list is frightening me.
There is noth8ng, absolutely nothing there to tell me that it will be ok and we will at least get a transition period.

Am i the only one to get really scared?

Brussels monitors UK media & ministers' statements

In return, I've been monitoring EU media about Brexit. Weekly. While the kettle boils.

"The PM met the Secretary of State this morning to remind her of the obligations which exist under the Ministerial Code."

Sorry, can't quite make sense of that. Who is "her" ?

Tweet quoting Jonathan Lis

Peter Foster‏ @pmdfoster
I am hearing same things.

Question is how much one discounts for EU negotiating hustle?

Less than many UK pols wd have u believe.

That's two sources saying the above is the word in Brussels.

There are plenty of people who want us to go over the cliff in the UK.

LH That refers to
"Patel has been reprimanded by May over Israel visit, No 10 reveals"

www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/nov/06/cbi-tells-may-that-business-needs-clarity-over-brexit-transition-by-christmas-politics-live

Thanks BCF. I had a guess it was, but prefer facts where possible

This is outrageous about expats, if true:

4/ Behind the scenes, also evidence that UK has reneged on guarantees for citizens that it initially signalled it would make

and this is something that most voters would notice/ and be furious about:

20/ That means no aviation, drastically curbed radiotherapy. No transfer of nuclear material unless UK's undergone exhaustive IAEA process
21/ EU thinks UK won't easily be able to resurrect old aviation treaties, and a new one will take 2 years.
This also requires goodwill.

I'm hoping - without any counter-evidence - that those sources are being unduly pessimistic to put on pressure

Perfidious Albion.

2 years until flights ... fog in the channel

"Europe cut off !"