Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

Oh, but it is the will of the people. An advisory referendum which was not held as binding and didn't have to be acted on (stated on paper in Westminster prior to ref). In such a scenario, no bl**dy care was given to what exactly the wording meant or what question it answered.

Someone could come along and say they voted to leave the EU and be out of it like Norway. Anything else would betray their democratic vote. Next person comes along and say they voted to leave the EU and be out of it like Nigeria. Anything else would betray their democratic vote.

Couldn't watch Question Time this week. Kept moving forward on iplayer. Tice (who?) telling everyone his interpretation of what everyone's vote was. From the "Let us never doubt what nobody is sure about" dictatorial brigade. Which nobody must doubt is what must happen or it will be a betrayal of 'democracy'. No Richie, it is just you not imposing your interpretation on the country.

As bad as it was before, everyone looks and sounds even like unquestioning indoctrinated hostages without any ability to analyse or resist the imposition of Brexiteers railroading on what they want Brexit to look like. Labour's Ian Lavery, put in corner, happily performs the 'we are leaving, because it is the democratic will of the people'. Oh, but only in the way R. Tice interprets for the 'people', Ian. Self appointed interpreter of people's will being magically aligned with what he wants. Also the loud rally like clapping from 'aficiondos' or manipulated people in the audience.

I think it is a little bit scary worrying.

I can believe it.

I can also believe it'd be a waste of time. As Theresa has demonstrated, she doesn't do learning.

(My DF would use a phrase from his native tongue : Like an egg, the more you beat it, the thicker it gets ... ... 'beat' having a synonym to 'teach', so it's not quite as violent as it sounds).

The nub of the problem is - unlike remainers - you will never get two leavers to agree. Which is why they must never be left alone.

I'm reminded of playing with magnets, and trying to force two similar poles together ...

LH As the local Tory parliamentary candidate said ... "It's too good for poor people"

No way! You know they think such things, put you would think they are too sly political to say it out loud.

Faisal Islam @ faisalislam
Experts are now back, as long as they are "real"

Tice is Leave.EU I believe. As in Aaron Banks's mate.

Patrick MacGuire @ patrickkmacguire
Direct rule lite klaxon: Brokenshire is ready to set a budget in lieu of Stormont. A surprise to precisely nobody.

Is Minford that lauded within his field?

No way! You know they think such things, put you would think they are too sly political to say it out loud.

That was a Boris tactic. I have no idea what the local Tory candidate may - or may not - have said. But fuck it. Put it out as fact, and see who falls for it.

Did anyone see the suggestion for the Kipling Boris should have quoted ?

I could not dig; I dared not rob:
Therefore I lied to please the mob.
Now all my lies are proved untrue
And I must face the men I slew.
What tale shall serve me here among
Mine angry and defrauded young?

Would that be the same J Rees-Mogg who happily has shares in a company selling pills used to provide (illegal) abortions ?

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/pro-life-tory-multi-millionaire-11267331

Or a different Rees-Mogg ? Maybe it's a common name ?

I don't think much of Rees Mogg. Looked up Gerard Lyons.

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/24/gerard-lyons-the-eu-is-like-the-titanic-and-we-need-to-jump-off/

Brexit allows the UK to address directly the areas that the EU has rendered us rudderless in. These include returning sovereignty Even May has stated the UK always had it's own sovereignty.

we are the EU’s biggest export market, Is that true? The biggest export market of each of the other 27 countries in the EU is the UK, bar none?

The 350million squids being spent a few times over. Not taking account any loss of riches from not being in the EU and trade deals associated. etc., etc., etc.

Even May has stated the UK always had it's own sovereignty

The problem is, like human rights, the vast majority of people have swallowed the trope uncritically (and this is pretty much I lose patience with them).

When challenged, no one has ever been able to cite an example where the EU has somehow forced the UK to do something parliament didn't want.

Same for human rights. No one has ever told me what human rights they feel they don't need. Plenty of ideas about rights that are surplus to requirements for "other people". But that rather serves to underscore their own ignorance rather than knowledge.

Even situations where it seems the UK has lost sovereignty (e.g. prisoners votes) it turns out that at the foundation of it all is a treaty the UK signed up to as a sovereign nation.

In fact, when people try to bring up examples where they think the EU has shafted the UK (smoking ban, metrication) the rather unpalatable truth has been that it's the UK that wrote the rules.

And as for Corbyns grumble that he can't do this, that or the other within the EU ... well once we know what it is he does want to do, then I am sure there are several ways he could do it. If he engaged with the EU. You know. Like the UK never has.

The whole Brexit thing is strewn with pathos and emotion. One of the saddest things is that having thrown off the Tories in 1997, I know a lot of friends really wanted the UK to become a key player and stop what we are starting to see. A Franco-German bloc which could become unstoppable.

Anyone know if the Monarch situation is Brexit related ?

www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/travel/2017/10/monarch-flights-atol-licence

hit by exchange rates ?

Monarch had problems last year too, before Brexit. I hope they sort it out because I have booked flights with them, but I did book by credit card.

Cailleach Look at the contrasting charts to see who is most vulnerable in the event of no deal:

45-50% of UK exports (depending on whether you count gold) are to the EU, by far the largest export destination. That's 12-13% of UK GDP

16% of EU exports go to the UK, which makes the UK - narrowly - the largest export destination for the EU, but it's only around 3% of EU GDP.
www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/after-brexit-how-important-would-uk-trade-be-eu

The EU will notice the loss, but they'll be better able to export elsewhere - especially since they'll retain their trade deals with the rest of the world, whereas the UK won't

You've explained the uneven effect so succinctly BigChoc

Wish the BBC our journalists would make that point. Only Channel 4 seems to be doing anything at all to challenge the Government lies half-truths and propaganda.

iirc, even the RoI imports more from the UK than it exports

Only 2 countries - Germany especially & the Netherlands - out of the 27 have a trade surplus with the UK,
the others have a deficit.

Germany would be hit the hardest, but they are the most able to withstand that - business here is very bullish bout Brexit and also bout taking business from the UK to compensate any Brexit losses

German industry have repeatedly said the integrity of the Single Market is far more important to them than the UK and that they don't support any concessions to the UK that might weaken the Single Market,
e.g. other 3rd countries would demand the same kind of deal that the UK got.

The trade figures are very easily available
Those politicians & journalists are lying / idiots / both
I favour the 3rd alternative

Andrew Woodcock @ andywoodcock
"Why would any normal person join the Conservative party?" asks activist at #cpc17 fringe - complains at lack of consultation on manifesto

Three tweets from very different places / echo chambers

Jamie Ross @ JamieRoss7 (Buzzfeed)
My first impression of the Tory conference is that it's dull as Christ. Where is everyone?

Chris Rumfitt @ chrisrumfitt (ex Lab seeking new centre left party)
Never has the contrast between the two party conferences been so great. Where is everyone?
I repeat... where the hell is everyone?

Andrew Pierce @ toryboypierce (the fail)
Even 4 @RuthDavidsonMSP one of the great Tory stars the conference hall is half empty. Where is everyone

Same point. Where is everyone?

Adam Bienkov @ adambeinkov
Graham Brady asked how they can increase Tory membership says they just need to "get people to realise... Labour will do profound damage."
Tory member's suggestion that the party should mimic Momentum is dismissed by Brady as he says it would devalue membership.
Graham Brady on how the Tories can win over Labour voters: "We need to get primary school teachers to understand the benefits of markets."

Why do you become a primary school teacher? Perhaps because you value the potential of people rather than cold cash.

Brady asks the wrong question and fails to grasp the problem that hard unfettered capitalism which values money above all else IS the problem.

The Conservatives can't grasp this because it's the fundamental core of their ideology.

It's a rejection of this that led Brexit and is driving Corbyn's popularity.

It has to be said that it looks suspiciously like the Manchester protestors are out numbering Tory delegates by quite a substantial ratio.

Alex Wickham @ Wikiguido
Tory leadership latest: Sajid Javid has made three jokes in 24 hours and James Cleverly has joined Snapchat.

Well, I went to Manchester. It was great - good natured and seemed pretty big to me. European tourists (Italians) and students (Greek and Polish flags) waving at the marchers. I didn't see any of the speakers - I was too hungry so had to find food.