Westminstenders: Beano or Bust

[RedToothBrush]

The last week has seemingly been eventful but not in the way that's on the surface.

It's what's going on behind the scenes and the little comments in less high profile speeches that's more telling.

On the one hand the Norths think the May speech is a laying down "an offer" that the EU can not accept, in order to set up a no deal situation.

On the other hand Telegraph Journalist Peter Foster thinks there things going on in Brussels with the EU set to compromise in someway and help May present a deal acceptable to the British. You have to wonder whether the "presentational" stuff is about a deal to essentially be in the EU but not in the EU. A Brexit Existing in A Name Only. Beano.

It's difficult to tell, and it will come down to brinkmanship over timing. For both a deal and for the Repel Bill as the two sides in parliament try to push things to their limit for their own ends.

In this vacuum of uncertainty CBI and their "arch enemies" the TUC have put out a joint statement saying no deal is nuts and will screw every one and the way EU cits have been treated has been dreadful.

As it stands it does look like May is serious about a deal and Davis is also acting in this way. Johnson and Hannan have launched their Institute for Free Trade (at the foreign office breaking ministerial code, but hell there's no consequences these days anyway cos May dare not let Johnson off the Brexit hook) in retaliation to try and retell the Brexit story as always being about free trade rather than racist. Unfortunately leavers seem to have bust that by admitting they are considerably more racist than Remainers by their own admission.

Then there's Trump and Bombardier. Just as Brexiteers are pushing for this closer relationship with the US in trade, despite May personally lobbying Trump he fucks her over slapping 220% tariff on Bombardier and putting the future of 4000 jobs at risk. This was inevitable as Trump fucks everyone for his own gain. The US won't ride to the aid of the British capitalists. They'll just eat them alive.

This week sees an important vote by the European Parliament on Brexit red lines. One of the votes states that the UK has to either stay in the customs union and internal market or NI has to have a special arrangement and stay in the customs union and the internal market in order to protect the EUs border integrity. Neither is compatible with what the Cons and the DUP have said they want.

It's also the Tory Party conference.May's big speech, in which she must throw red meat to the swivel eyed loons on right, is on Weds. There are of course, no debates at ConParty because, well, they can't behave like good little children without supervision. Instead the conference is to, erm... yeah we'll find out next week.

(paywall) ‘Distraught’ Theresa May could be gone by Christmas as up to 30 MPs plot to oust her after disastrous party conference speech

< is "distraught" the new "tired & emotional", maybe the version without booze ? >

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/04/distraught-theresa-may-could-gone-christmas-30-mps-plot-oust/

Theresa May’s political future is hanging in the balance after her disastrous conference speech left her feeling “extremely distraught”.
The Prime Minister had hoped the speech would effectively relaunch her Premiership and kickstart a Conservative revival
.....
However, the policies were largely overshadowed by < list of disasters >
......
it capped a disastrous conference week for the Conservatives
with the annual gathering in Manchester dominated by a simmering Cabinet row over Boris Johnson’s determination not to allow Brexit to be derailed.
.....
In the wake of June’s election result, many senior Conservatives have been keen to avoid a leadership challenge
for fear that it would lead to a bitter row over Brexit policy
and undermine crucial talks with the EU.

There is also growing concern that a leadership contest could ultimately spark a general election
in which the Conservatives would be ill-prepared to tackle a surge for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party.

Mrs May said before the conference that she was determined to fight the 2022 general election.

However, while the Prime Minister was publicly supported by her Cabinet,

privately Tory MPs said she was “limping like a broken horse into oblivion”

and suggested that talks about her departure will have to be “accelerated”.

A Cabinet minister said she was “extremely distraught”
and allies were hoping that she will bounce back from the conference setback to lead Britain’s crucial talks with the EU next year.
....
it emerged tonight that as many as 30 Tory MPs are thought to be prepared to sign a letter calling for the Prime Minister to resign,
with one drawing comparisons to Labour’s “sleepwalk into defeat” under Gordon Brown.

A senior Conservative source said:
“The public are far more brutal about these things.
They will see a Prime Minister who looks ill, with the stage set falling down.
.....
Another minister said:
“Things are moving quite quickly.
Conversations are being held.
The plates are moving more fundamentally now.
She has to decide.”

But the speech has accelerated calls for her to go in order to head off an emboldened Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn.

If she refused to step aside rebels believe they could win enough signatures to trigger a leadership ballot – 48 – over the coming months.

A former Conservative minister said:
“It’s time to put ourselves out of the agony,
the speech was excruciating to watch
and as a result conversations are happening at a faster pace.

People had wanted her to go by 2019 but now that could be much sooner.

“There is a concern that there isn’t a real alternative for leader but on the other hand if we get this out of the way now we could have someone new by Christmas.”

They said it would not be surprising if the Prime Minister was already considering her options after the speech, adding:

“She looked completely broken when she came off stage.”

Yes, I do remember the " born in the USA row"
Now Trump would probably claim he inspired and owns that song

I do still feel sorry for May.

Pity is just about the worst thing you can feel for the Prime Minister. It shows just how far you've sunk.

As prime minister, Johnson would have to decide whether to carry on playing wrecking games or face up to the responsibility of being a politician whose words and actions determine the nation’s future. He could choose the disastrous route of hard Brexit, or grow up and deliver soft Brexit, free of serious foes on the right. Either way, he could not hide from the consequences of his actions.

This sort of thing worries me a bit because it is just what was said about Trump before he got elected. There was lots of people saying he would grow into the role of president, lots of people saying he wouldn't be allowed to continue acting the same way once he was in power. This has not been the case and we are all paying the price for people down playing the risk.

If BoJo becomes prime minister he will not change, he will carry on doing exactly what he does, but it will be worse. What we should have learnt from Trump is that the role does not magically transform someone into a decent human being if they are a twat and that once a truely abysmal human being is in a position of power it is amazing what damage they can do before they are removed. And let's not make the mistake of thinking BoJo is anything other than an abysmal excuse for a human.

Jo Maugham QC‏*@JolyonMaugham*

Bombardier. Now this. If you thought Trump would ride in on a white unicorn and save us you need to sober up.

May on final warning after Conservative conference speech shambles

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-on-final-warning-after-conservative-conference-speech-shambles-p45-prank-and-cough-jk3vrw7r6

“Yesterday I thought she was two crises from the exit, now it’s just one,”
a Conservative MP said.

A minister agreed that parliament’s return would bring renewed speculation over her future.
“The question is now whether it’s kinder to all concerned to bring this to a head.”

Forget the cough – I have never seen such staggering incompetence at a party conference

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/04/forget-cough-have-never-seen-staggering-incompetence-party/

When policy announcements become only the third item in TV coverage of a prime minister’s conference speech, something has gone badly wrong.

And let’s not mess about here: Theresa May’s speech did indeed go badly wrong.

All the sympathy and affection from the gathered loyalists can never make up for the fact that this was a massive diversion from what her government is trying to achieve.

Conservative conference: It all goes a bit Frank Spencer for luckless Theresa May

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/conservative-conference-it-all-goes-a-bit-frank-spencer-for-luckless-theresa-may-5999xzbbw

www.ft.com/content/92bb5636-a95b-11e7-ab55-27219df83c97
Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to May’s Brexit plans
Move shows US likely to drive hard bargain as Britain navigates departure from Europe

That FT article in full

Those who think Boris would rise to the challenge of being PM:
The bar is very low, but he'll still wriggle under it

Trump is an excellent indication of what would happen
Boris seems a posh English version of him.
Obama said that the becoming POTUS magnifies all a person's attributes,
i.e. decent / sociopathic, capable / incompetent

I think even people who despise the Tories see May as an object of pity. Not a good look for a Prime Minister who needs to lead us through Brexit. I don't see how she can recover from this latest humiliation and be taken seriously by anyone.

Frank Spencer

If I could be bothered, I'd mash up a clip of the speech to (whistles) "dah dah dah da da da da da da ...."

Maybe what we're seeing isn't May's fault. Maybe we're having a foretaste of Brexit and the work required overwhelming the government and the Civil Service and we're now going to have years of the government effectively not being able to do anything in addition (in a meaningful sense). Maybe the only difference a highly effective leader would make is to gloss over the paralysis and jolly things along in a plausible way, "look at how much we're getting done!"

Frank Spencer

There have been many amusing comments but my favourite might be some vicars do 'ave 'em.

BigChoc That article saying that the Banks need a water-tight deal by Christmas is worrying - they're clearly not going to get it.

I keep banging on about Philip Hammond apologising to business at the Conference, and (apparently) using private speeches to deliver warnings-of-impending-doom should they switch support to Labour but ... all of that indicates there really is a huge problem with the Conservatives, business and Brexit.

I can't help but feel that this needs as great an emphasis as the speech disaster.

As for Boris Johnson ... it all makes me think that the Conservatives have a nightmare on their hands. They are losing business support (donors), they are losing their more sensible activists and Party members, and not attracting new ones (the ones who do constituency work and stand as councillors, etc) but they are trapped by a. a pro-Brexit vote base and b. a base that think Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Mogg are great.

Outside that circle, Boris Johnson and Rees Mogg are toxic. The grown-ups know that - but they are hostages, really.

Honestly, in what kind of reality is Boris Johnson seen as anything other than poison?

I think even people who despise the Tories see May as an object of pity

as stated upthread, I hope that's after their pity for the homeless, the disabled, the abandoned, the hungry and the destitute ?

I'm sorry, but Theresa May is a paradigm of a self-made mess. Why the fuck should anyone feel sorry for someone who - despite having all the benefits of privilege - can still make such a fist of things.

If nothing else, there must be thousands of young people of exceptional talent who will never, ever get the opportunities that Theresa May has squandered in the name of her fucking Tory chums.

Maybe it's my foreign half obscuring the English ? But I don't get this pity thing people are talking about. Well, I do. But not for her.

Of course it's after the pity I feel for the homeless, poor and disabled. I wasn't suggesting otherwise.

It's the public humiliation I feel pity towards.

It's the public humiliation I feel pity towards.

What about the humiliation of women having to prove they were raped before getting child benefit ?

What about the humiliation of those so poor after having their disability benefits illegally stopped using foodbanks, and shelters ?

I'm very, very, very, very sorry, but they deserve our sympathy, pity and compassion. All Theresa May deserves is our contempt for being able to allow it to happen, and then hector us for not "being onside".

Again, I do feel much, more pity towards those suffering because of this government.

And when you think things couldn't get any worse ...

I do have moments of feeling sorry for her,she actually seems quite a shy awkward person who has to steel herself before making any speech. But then why go into politics.

Also she has completely ignored 48% of the country.

Also I remember some duplicitous things she's said and my pity fades.The things that rile me for some reason are:
🔹When she said " if you look at what happened to sterling, it had started to fall back before the referendum..." So not linked to leaving the EU at all then?
🔹When she made that speech to the Scottish Tories in the Spring. Lord- the rank hypocrisy of that speech. Banging about how politics is not a game, and government is not a platform from which to pursue constitutional obsessions.And that tunnel vision nationalism, which focuses only on independence at any cost, sells the country [Scotland] short.
Then emphasising of the practical benefits which flow from our [Scottish] Union, and the importance of enabling collective scientific and economic developments.
She actually said there was a remorseless logic that greater economic strength and security came from being united.
There. My pity is squashed. If anyone wants to squash their pity too, I suggest you play hypocrisy bingo with this speech.
http://www.scottishconservatives.com/2017/03/theresa-may-speech-to-scottish-conservative-conferencee_//_
.

Also hinted that the 'men in grey suits, nor the 1922 committee but the outside suits, might have a chat to her and tell her to go'.

Who are they? The only grey suits I've heard of are the 1922. Are we talking, like, Men in Black (but in grey)?

An alternative version of her interpretation of the "British Dream", pointing out how she is very selective about lauding the fact that the granddaughter of a domestic servant is now a pitiful PM, while ignoring the fact that a daughter of someone who had MS (as her mother did) would end up being a Carer and struggling to make ends up meet under her regime, as criticised by the UN

Shame on her and her party

http://www.anyvoice.co.uk/politics/mays-speech-tory-conference-truly-shameful/

Theresa May: We all know the stories... about the illegal immigrant who cannot be deported because, and I am not making this up, he had a pet cat.

Of course, what she said was made up.