Sufficient progress on Irish Border

[user1471441738]

Donald Tusk said today although he welcomed the end if cake and eat it we'd still not made enough progress to move to a trade deal.

I'm wondering if we can ever get there. Guaranting citizens rights SHOULD be simple enough. The "divorce payment" is just about money.

However, what position would work on the border question?

For me, workable ideas are:

1: Cancel Brexit
2: United Ireland
3: EEA/single market membership
4: Single market for Northern Ireland but not Britain, hard border with Britain (border is the coast) and Northern Irish businesses wishing to trade must generally meet both EU and British standards.
5: Hard border with customs and passport checks between Northern Ireland and Eire.

Are there any others?

All 5 would surely massively anger lots of people

The EU is not refusing to negotiate a free trade agreement with us. However it has said very clearly right from the beginning that the financial question, the Irish question and the rights of UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK have to be addressed - sufficient progress made - first.
As for all the other agreements, this is a fascinating read and gives some idea of the breadth, depth and complexity of the various undertakings.
ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/negotiations-and-agreements/

But Bear lots of non EU countries have free trade deals with the EU.

Name one country who's free trade deal includes all goods, capital and, crucially, services?

Why would they not want to negotiate a free trade deal with us? Spite!

No, not spite. It's a need to keep the rest of the EU together and to not give the UK advantages other non-Eu countries don't get.

If we could get the same benefits outside the EU as in it every other country would want the same.

Whether there is a FTA or not is irrelevant for Northern Ireland border questions. A FTA is only necessary if the UK is outside the single market. And if the UK is outside the single market, then a hard border for trade between NI and the republic is inevitable.

Not inevitable because the EU is playing hardball but inevitable as a consequence of international legal frameworks notably GATT (the body of international law that governs WTO trade relationships).

But the UK will be out of the single market Misti. I don't understand why people keep bring it up as the Gov. have stated that we are leaving it, end off.

Which means we need a border for trade?

I'm beginning to think I'm in some kind of parallel universe here.

I realise that other countries don't have Free trades that include capital and services. But we were talking about solving the NI/Irish border problem so the free trade deal of goods is relevant to that as we are talking about whither to have a hard border or not. It would be really great to have free trade for services as obviously that impacts greatly on the UK and especially the city. I am not so delusional as to think that we will have things all our own way and that we would get a free trade deal for services too. That will certainly be much more problematic. But I do hope that arrangements can be made that would mean that the city isn't too impacted but I am sure there will be implications.

"It would be really great to have free trade for services as obviously that impacts greatly on the UK and especially the city"

It isn't just London that is affected by losing access to service exports, there are many other service sectors (insurance, transport, etc.) that also depend on the single market. Plus back-office operations that are mainly located in the midlands and the north of England (and Scotland).

Corcory, we can all 'hope', but that won't butter any parsnips, will it?

Your last post sounds about as substantial as everything May and her goons have been saying so far about Brexit.

Northern Ireland and the border is our problem, not the EU's, except insofar as it affects the RoI. So the EU wants us to sort it out, or at least come forward with workable proposals should we (as May insists) be out of the SM. But the UK is apparently unwilling to do so, I can only assume because our negotiators can't get their heads around the reality of the situation. What we want for NI is irrelevant unless we can come up with a workable solution.

But the UK will be out of the single market Misti. I don't understand why people keep bring it up as the Gov. have stated that we are leaving it, end off

Yes, I know that we are leaving the single market. Which means a hard border. A FTA does not remove the need for border controls.

The absence of customs controls between NI and the republic relies on membership of BOTH the EU customs union AND the single market. For example: Norway is inside the single market for most purposes, but outside the EU customs union; there are physical customs controls (a "hard border") on the long land border between Norway and Sweden, and at other points of entry. Likewise, Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, but not inside the single market, and it too has a physical customs border with the EU.

The point is that unless the government compromises on the single market, and agrees to remain in the customs union then there will be physical customs and other checks at the border.

Northern Ireland and the border is our problem,

It's a massive issue for Ireland too (and by extension the EU). Ireland will become the EU's external border, which it will have to control. This will be expensive, and dangerous. This is why the EU wants a solution up front and will have no truck with bleating about FTAs.

The problem is that there is no obvious solution apart from NI remaining in the single market and customs union, and moving to external EU border to the Irish Sea.

The absence of customs controls between NI and the republic relies on membership of BOTH the EU customs union AND the single market.

This applies in pre-existing arrangements.

There is no reason that a new type of arrangement cannot be reached, other than the EU do not wish to discuss or develop a new type.

The problem is that there is no obvious solution apart from NI remaining in the single market and customs union, and moving to external EU border to the Irish Sea.

Or people waking up to the reality that there are no real benefits to Brexit and carrying on as we're are wishful thinking

There is no reason that a new type of arrangement cannot be reached, other than the EU do not wish to discuss or develop a new type.

Realistically what arrangements can possibly be put in place that don't involve us keeping everything as it is already without the bits we don't like faith?

Sorry, arrangements that don't require a hard border that is.

Faith The U.K. as an independent country can say that they are happy with no borders, or free movement into U.K. for goods or people then they are free to do so.

It is up to the EU to decide what the EU wants - therefore it is the EU who has to say one way or another if it wants a border between Ireland & NI.

The UK is an independent country. Good that has been established. It is also presently part of the EU as are 27 other independent countries.

I know that successive monarchs and gov't's don't and never has given a flying fig about what they did/do in Ireland. Apart from murder and mayhem, land grabbing and asset stripping the country. But as a part of the island is still part of the UK and under Westminster's jurisdiction, do you not think they should have some responsibility on what impact their decisions have on it's citizens? This one is close to home (part of home itself, even) and has involvement of the EU. Not as easily to thread on as it usually is. Still possible, but not as easy.

Say after me, 'we can break this cycle'.

Slightly tongue in cheek. Just slightly

The UK is an independent country. Good that has been established. It is also presently part of the EU as are 27 other independent countries.

Obviously.

Perhaps I should have elaborated - the UK as an independent country outwith the EU.

Or - the UK as a country when it is independent of the EU.

Until that happens we cannot unilaterally decide our policies on ‘goods in’.

There is no reason that a new type of arrangement cannot be reached, other than the EU do not wish to discuss or develop a new type

You chose to leave. Therefore you need to state what new arrangements you are going to make regarding your own borders. You can't dump the EU and then expect them to make all your plans for you (although you're in the same boat as madwoman May, who had the same plan).

You're fucked, basically. None of the possiblilities actually work practically, therefore you don;t have any possibilities.

existential the problem is, as demonstrated by the fact faith ignored my last question, Leavers genuinely don't think we're fucked because they are still operating under the illusion the EU will cave in and let us continue the 3 freedoms we like with no tariffs or controls therefore no need for a border.

And in that they are delusional.

The Common Travel Agreement so often mentioned as a cure-all for NI issues by Brexiteers is for the people of UK and RoI, not for EU citizens and critically, not for trade. There were customs posts on the border before the single market in 1993, and smuggling was most definitely a thing pre-1993 and rife during WW2 for example.

There is no way there can be an invisible border if any checks on goods are required and some checks will be required post Brexit, no matter what the deal. In Switzerland, for example, even with a FTA and FOM, as an individual you are only allowed carry a certain amount of goods over the border each way. If you buy over about €300 of goods you have to declare it and pay VAT. Business have a whole other set of rules and I guess the trucks backed up at the border are in doing paperwork.

There are border points, customs guards and practically speaking anyone with a non local registration, or looking suspicious to the French or Swiss border guards is stopped. Often there is no one checking, but once there is, the tailbacks start. There are also random customs checks on the motorway péages in France. Even his kind of low impact arrangement will be a nightmare to police in NI, with highly experienced, armed gangs of smugglers, policing issues, a porous border and certain historic sensitivities around border posts in the area.

Do Brexiteers really not give a crap what comes through NI and on to the UK from the EU, whether it is cheap wine from France or illegal workers for your fruit farms? I think wise up might be the appropriate phrase here....

I think a common travel area and a free trade will be workable. Possibly a soft border like the Norway-Sweden border. So there will be some smuggling but N.Ireland is used to it and will just turn a blind eye.

I think a common travel area and a free trade will be workable. Possibly a soft border like the Norway-Sweden border. So there will be some smuggling but N.Ireland is used to it and will just turn a blind eye

I suspect David Davis actual proposals are about as sensible and robust as this

The point I was making up thread was that it's primarily up to us to put forward solutions as we caused the problem with the border by leaving. I did say it was a problem for the EU and RoI, but clearly I did not express that strongly enough.

Bear, me too.

It's not funny really.