(paywall) This is May’s last chance to reassure business
< why can't DD just present this to Barnier ? Is May expected to have a magic touch ? >
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/this-is-mays-last-chance-toreassure-business-d0w60kwft
The prime minister must give the speech of her life in Florence otherwise Brexit vagueness will wreck the economy.
Anyone who has ever worked for a large business or serious organisation will be aware of the need for proper forward planning.
Under the cover of all that annoying talk about strategy and “blue-sky thinking”, good companies think ahead and ask practical questions.
What are we going to do next year to make more money?
What could go wrong?
What decisions have to be taken now to avert potential difficulties?
It is in this context, with business and the wider country asking what the precise plan is for Brexit,
that the prime minister’s make or break speech in Florence tomorrow should be seen.
In the last year business leaders have been messed around enough by the Tories,
who all but branded them crooks in their manifesto.
Before they lose what little faith they have left in British statecraft and start signing off on emergency preparations for the UK crashing out in a shambolic fashion,
May has to produce a clear plan on the sequencing for Brexit.
“Do these politicians not understand how the world works?
I’m already having meetings where we’re talking in detail about the second half of next year,”
says a senior executive in a leading City firm.
“Before you know it we’ll be talking about 2019.”
And we all know what is supposed to happen in March of that year.
With that immovable exit date drawing near, it is no exaggeration to say that failure in Florence would constitute something close to a national economic disaster.
Unless it is possible by teatime on Friday to give a crisp summary of three key points that would fit in small writing on the back of a business card
then May will have failed and business will know it and prepare accordingly.
What needs to be said to find a way through? It should run like this:
Britain seeks a two-year transition from March 2019 that looks very like membership of the EU, minus British MEPs.
Brussels gets its £10 billion a year for two years and no hole in its budget.
British business does not have to adjust twice and gains time.
.....
That clears the way for reaching an outline agreement on the future relationship next year,
with negotiating teams on both sides then working through area by area, building an agreement step by step.
.....
There may be bills to pay for joint programmes, if they are agreed.
Britain then exits fully in early 2021, and the future deal and negotiated arrangements take effect.
Ironically, cabinet ministers thought they were almost there on this,
and at the point where they could tell the small band of juvenile, sloganeering headbangers in the parliamentary party to shut up or risk prime minister Corbyn,
until Boris Johnson, always needing affirmation and attention, blundered in with a series of egomaniacal meanderings last weekend.
His “bombing raid on the PM”, as one colleague described it,
contained numerous misunderstandings of basic concepts relating to the EU and funding.
Far from undermining May, the mess Boris made of it, and the way it revealed the paucity of his support,
has slightly strengthened a prime minister lacking authority.
The chastened foreign secretary has now backed down from resignation, and will be in the audience with the chancellor Philip Hammond and Brexit secretary David Davis when May speaks.
.....
The latest draft of the May speech was circulating yesterday among key ministers before today’s cabinet meeting,
at which an attempt will be made to get ministers to agree, smile and stick to a collective line.
Beyond the detail on transition, the prime minister is also expected to try a constructive pro-European tone,
emphasising our common heritage and shared interest in security and intelligence,
an area in which the UK leads and wants to continue to help.
Those in the Tory party pushing for a hardline no-deal scenario need to switch their brains on and think about the economic and electoral implications.
The alternative to constructing a bridge to Brexit is best viewed not so much as “hard Brexit” but as stupid Brexit.
“Boris is prepared to crash out despite having no idea what it means.
He seems to be for brainless Brexit,”
says a minister who despairs of his lack of attention to detail.
“He doesn’t understand economics, or supply chains.
< hence totally unfit to make demands about Brexit >
This is no longer about Leavers or Remainers, this is about making sensible arrangements and helping business and the economy.”