Westminstenders: The Maddest of May and Boris's Dare

[RedToothBrush]

Boris Johnson just dared May to fire him.

That's what his little rant about £350 million buses is.

Meanwhile its been pointed out that HMRC literally are incapable of handling a no deal and can only cope with an EEA / EFTA deal with no tariffs.

And given how good and on time the government are with computer systems even in a best case scenario are extremely unlikely to crack it in time.

Which makes Hammond's talk of a civil contingence plan, look, well half arsed and lacking.

We also wouldn't have planes able to fly to Europe under a no deal as we would no longer be part of Open Skies. This could leave thousands stranded. But no biggie there.

Meanwhile if the Leave Alliance have things right, May is about to serve our one year notice on leaving the EEA making all these things a reality.

Which is less like shooting yourself in the head and more like shooting yourself in the head, chest, foot, arm, leg and face (for a second time), whilst being run over at the same time.

But hey, Boris Johnson has it sussed in his 10 point plan. Especially the point where he says Brexit will be a success.

If you call success ending democracy, becoming a dictatorship, starving everyone, bankrupting the country and causing civil unrest.

Rule Britannia.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brexit-chaos-as-top-official-oliver-robbins-quits-after-one-year-in-the-job-a3637166.html?amp
Brexit 'chaos' as top official Oliver Robbins quits after one year in the job
Permanent Secretary at DExEU moves to co-ordinating role at Downing Street

There was an article about Robbins v Davis a week or two ago.

It made the point that Robbins seemed to be in May's circle even though a civil servant and he was having a battle with Davis over power.

I'll try and find this article as the background here is very relevant.

RedToothBrush Thu 07-Sep-17 09:25:48

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*
Interesting, on what is happening at @DExEUgov. Dunno if true but has ring of truth.

www.politico.eu/article/britains-other-brexit-battle-david-davis-olly-robbins-feud/
Britain’s other Brexit battle
Even as London negotiates with Brussels, a battle has been taking place inside the department charged with extracting the UK from the EU.

Steve Bullock‏*@GuitarMoog*
Key take from this as ex-CS is that, if true, the distinction between neutral civil servants and Ministers may be being blurred on Brexit 1/
Call me naive, or an idealist, if you will, but talk of CSs bypassing ministers, or being close to PMs sits uncomfortably with me 2/
And talk of being pro- or anti- Brexit, or anything for that matter, when it comes to Civil Servants is very deeply uncomfortable 3/
Of course Senior CSs must establish trust with Ministers, but it's ultimately their job to speak truth to them, however uncomfortable 4/
CSs are not political. It doesn't matter what their personal beliefs are, and their influence should never depend on this. 5/
Moreover, ministers should (and largely do) demand this, without fear of CSs relationships with their CAB colleagues or the PM 6/
If this breaks down, look forward to a US or even German-style system, where backing the wrong political horse can ruin a CS's career 7/
That should never be allowed to happen, so I very much hope this article is exaggerated, or that I am reading to much into it. 8/8

Ah ...www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41308081

Seems he has moved to be closer to Theresa ... so is DD being hung out to dry (along with BoJo ?)

Gove is also supporting BoJo, according to the Guardian www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/18/gove-tweets-support-for-boris-johnson-in-350m-a-week-row

Be interesting to see what happens to the 3 Brexiteers.

Farage was right...they will be lynched

It looks like the article was indeed true.

David Allen Green's take on this:

Law and policy‏*****@davidallengreen***
He was doing best he could given the situation. A real loss to UK on Brexit: second most serious departure, after losing Rogers in January.

Nothing on this account has been critical of the civil servants and government lawyers charged with Brexit.

Issue is political leadership.

He will still be attending talks etc.

But @DExEUgov needs a senior official with oversight of Brexit both domestically and in EU talks.

Weakening @DExEUgov at this stage (even if he goes to @Number10gov) is not sensible.

Both Withdrawal Bill and Exit talks need to cohere.

Laura Kuenssberg‏ @bbclaurak
I m told move part of May taking more control of EU negotiations as well tensions btw him and David Davis

Law and policy‏*****@davidallengreen***
Politician responsible for shambles of the #CSAInquiry, and losing general election, is now to taking "more control" of Brexit negotiations.

Law and policy‏*****@davidallengreen**

Some pointed out the creation of the pop-up department at @DExEUgov* was a mistake at the time.

Today's move confirms it.

John Walton‏*@thatjohn*
Machinery of Government changes create at least 18 months of uncertainty, and are Kryptonite to good governance.

Law and policy‏*****@davidallengreen**
A thread about @DExEUgov*

Of all the decisions taken after the referendum result by the new May government, one was particularly odd.

On paper, it must have looked a very clever idea.

One can almost imagine the boxes and arrows which made the idea seem very clever indeed.

The idea was to create two new Whitehall departments, from scratch and at speed, to deal with Brexit.

They were @DExEUgov and @tradegovuk

The latter was based on a misconception that UK could enter into and conclude substantial trade negotiations while still a EU member.

And even if UK could, most sensible countries would want to see what the Brexit deal looked like first in any case. Pointless.

But the @DExEUgov department was the real problem.

A new department charged with two vast, complex and immediate tasks.

The tasks were (1) prepare for the Brexit negotiations and (2) prepare for domestic side of Brexit ("Great Repeal Bill" as it was called).

Either task would be a challenge for an established, resourced department.

But May decided to hand both to a brand new department.

Idiocy.

And to make things worse, May's stubbornness on fighting the Miller A50 litigation to Supreme Court meant new department had a distraction.

An unforced error.

The @cabinetofficeuk was already preparing for domestic side for Brexit from standing start. No need for a change.

The @foreignoffice and UKRep @ukineu were already well placed and experienced to do the Brexit negotiations.

No doubt a cabinet level appointment was needed, like Lord Rippon when UK was joining EEC back in early 1970s.

But not a new department.

And so UK had turf wars and the rush of a new department at the time it needed (to invoke a phrase) to "be getting on with the job".

Add to this the premature notification of A50 and the needless general election, and you can see why @DExEUgov had little chance.

This is not to decry the officials, diplomats and lawyers at the department. They did/do their best.

Problem was elsewhere.

The constant failure of UK political leadership to accept Brexit is complex is key problem.

But still the easy answers and slogans come.

Today, clear @DExEUgov has hit the wall of reality. Will not be the last.
And the fault not with Brexit vote but with May's unforced errors.

The sequence of unforced errors by May on Brexit is now so long, a genuine saboteur could not have done any better or worse.

/ends

Tom Hoyle‏*@TomfooleryH*
Ollie Robins basing himself in No10 & Lidington steering Withdrawal Bill suggests May (to coin a phrase) is trying to take back control.

Law and policy‏*****@davidallengreen***

Today's move of Robbins to Number 10 was perhaps foreshadowed by Lidington closing for government in Brexit debate.

@DExEUgov sidelined.

(David Lidington, Justice Minister did the closing speech at the end of the Repel Bill debate - look at what David Allen Green defines the two key rolls of the Brexit Department to be, and how this decision for Lidington to do this particular speech is a big deal).

David Allen Green says its about a tension between Robbins and Davis, but you can't ignore its also about the tension between May and Davis - who like Johnson - has ambitions to be the next leader.

Sharks circling for May or May still not listening? Or both? Or something else?

Its not healthy what ever it is.

We now have both Davis and Fox having to justify the existence of their departments and Johnson trying to justify his position in the Foreign Office. The Three Brexiteers must not be happy bunnies.

Its all just a massive power struggle and nothing going on seems to be about running the country or even Brexit does it?

Jim Pickard‏*@PickardJE*
hope no one reads anything into fact that David Davis has now lost his permanent secretary, special adviser & two ministers in a few months.

Please let the Tories destroy themselves, and if they scupper Brexit in the process, it will be a bonus.

Yes...like an orobouros eating itself
The bastards

We now have both Davis and Fox having to justify the existence of their departments and Johnson trying to justify his position in the Foreign Office. The Three Brexiteers must not be happy bunnies.

Alternatively, are we seeing the most byzantine plot coming to fruition to effectively neuter Brexit ?

DD, LF and BJ can either fight each other for the scraps of Brexit left over after Theresa May has fucked them up or they can unite to re-sell Brexit to an increasingly tired, sceptical public.

Can't do both.

Tick tock.

Is it a serious possibility that Brexit won't go through? I know Leavers think there will be riots etc etc but are there any Remainers who genuinely think it's a possibility (and I know we all hope it is!)

We can but hope...

I think Brexit will go through, because both left and right wings of the Creative Destruction Society can command enough votes in the House of Commons.

And I think it will be an absolute fustercluck, because 1) that suits the CDS and 2) there aren't enough sensible, capable people in positions where they could mitigate its effects (and the CDS will make sure that that situation continues).

Is it a serious possibility that Brexit won't go through? I know Leavers think there will be riots etc etc but are there any Remainers who genuinely think it's a possibility (and I know we all hope it is!)

If we're allowed a brief TAAT, then the question posed elsewhere on this site "are you still talking about Brexit" suggests that there won't be riots .... as predicted, most people have lost interest.

I said it last year, I say it again, and I will say it in future when things are more clear:

Whilst it was a stroke of genius on the part of Farage/Leave/UKIP to harness the untapped power of the apathetic, it was a one-off thing. There's a reason these people were/are apathetic, and it's fuck all to do with the EU and a lot more to do with the fact they are happy that way.

Great, they were fooled into taking part. However, fool me once ...

Good metaphor for brexit??

I'm going to cancel Netflix and negotiate with each film producer separately, to get the best deal for me and my family #Brexit

The riots (or lack of) are also a real reason why the single market should have been the preferred option (if we have to Brexit at all).

The UK would no longer be part of the EU and would not be subject to the ECJ. Admittedly, it would be subject to the EFTA court, and bound by the ECJ's rulings, but is that enough to get a 70 year old out on the streets with a placard, if otherwise the news is all about how fine it is now we've left.

We've already establshed that an awful lot more could have been done to manage freedom of movement within the scope of existing EU law, and this could have been done in conjunction with EEA membership.

WATCH OUT LARGE VEHICLE REVERSING.
It might be a bus. A red one.

Dominic Cummings (for anyone who doesn't know who @odysseanproject is). That's VOTE LEAVE's Dominic Cummings.

Do you recall the leave votes shouting DON'T TRIGGER ARTICLE 50, in March? I recall the WILL OF THE PEOPLE in March.

So look at this with wonder.

odysseanproject‏**@odysseanproject**
1/ In REF @vote_leave said: do not commit to using A50. DD et al listened to bullshit legal advice & led like lambs to slaughter by Heywood
2/ I said triggering A50 quickly w/o plan & legal preps for NoDeal wd be like putting a gun in mouth & kaboom. DD chose to do exactly that
3/ The shambles now unfolding is a direct consequence of that historic unforgivable blunder
4/ At next Cabinet all SoS shd demand from Heywood/DD full briefing on THEIR contingency plans for NoDeal. G Brady shd demand the same
5/ Sooner MPs realise where DD has driven them the sooner mitigation can begin
6/ You cannot 'make Brexit work' AND keep traditional wiring of how Downing St works. Until MPs face this, shambles will continue
7/ SW1 assumes TM/PH/DD/BJ have been hammering out post-transition state. Wrong. That's heart of the problem & why speech being fought over
8/ Good heuristic: whenever u catch yourself thinking 'Govt can't be that crap', invert your perspective & you'll usually be more accurate
9/ The point re 350m/NHS now is not about REF, it’s re whether Tory MPs want to keep their jobs/stop Corbyn
10/ From political perspective Boris/MG approach gives you a shot of saving your skins, backing Hammond/DD = you're seat/gvt in dire danger
11/ You shd be icily realistic: REF is gone, future survival requires doing things you won't like, e.g obeying public priorities
12/ DD/Hammond say ‘we didn’t promise it’. That attitude will lose your seat. If you want to stop Corbyn listen to public, not those 2
13/ DD record: trigger A50 cluelessly then trigger election cluelessly. Boris/Gove record: unprecedented electoral triumph vs odds
14/ CCHQ lost a REF & election promising 'stability'. People want huge change, £ for NHS & science, & an agenda neither 'left'/'right'
15/ Brexit reqs huge change so reboot Downing St/civil service or Seamus will be siting next to Heywood reviewing your tax records shortly

Mr Cummings wants a revolution but thinks it can be paid for with pink fairy dust. And look 'tax returns' seem to be a thing. Is that off shore tax or just everyone's tax?

Interesting to see him saying that Brexit requires a huge change though... no shit!

How can you do that with May in charge? How can you do that with Davis still in the Brexit department. And how can you do anything in the timeframe required?

Law and policy‏**@davidallengreen**

My argument on why A50 should not have been the method used in Brexit.

www.ft.com/content/4278146d-67e9-3430-8711-0d3e6d74c25e
Five steps for how Brexit should be done

Peter Harris‏*@ipeterharris*
It's never occurred to me before, but an exit treaty would have been much better. Would the EU27 have accepted a circumvention of Lisbon?

Law and policy‏**@davidallengreen**

EU27 had no choice, if UK insisted.

UK should have said Brexit, but only by treaty. Not by unfair A50.

Rafael Behr‏ @rafaelbehr
This seems absolutely right. Obstacle was not EU27 but leavers fearing A50 delay would be Remain in disguise (which many Remainers did want)

Said this before. We could have done this. It would have been possible to do this. Fairly sure it would have stood up to EU law if UK wanted to force it through that way.

But no, we had to be pig headed and oooo evil ECJ and EU law.

If we had a brain cell we could have used EU framework to do what we wanted (but by the same token we could have stayed in the EU and done similar. Therein lies the UK's biggest folly).

What does the numpty mean "From political perspective Boris/MG approach gives you a shot of saving your skins" ?

What approach?

I don't see any approach apart from that fantasy of a "10 point plan" in the Torygraph.

I don't see why the EU would have had to accept an exit treaty.

Given that any offer of a treaty from the UK would never have included the four freedoms, I don't think the EU would have had any choice but to point to Article 50 and say "that's the exit process".

Ooo Cummings is doing some more tweeting 30 mins after his last one.

odysseanproject‏*@odysseanproject*

16/ ARPA/PARC w 25 ppl & few 10s of millions created >$30trillion of value, much much much more than Single Market deckchair shuffling
17/ UK shd be thinking how to do things like that - REAL value for civilisation - leaving turgid dated args re SM bureaucracy far behind
18/ Even if you accept Cmsn figures on SM benefits, it's paltry & dwarfed by decisions re how we shape our institutions
19/ Tory donors: u shd not give 1 more penny while Heywood & DD remain in post. You've more influence than u realise, use it
20/ For lobby clarity: I'm just as happy we won as ever tho it's sad there'll be unnecessary shambles thx to dysfunctional SW1
21/ Remainers wanting a rematch: @vote_leave wd win >60% so careful what u wish for, there's plenty more where 350 came from...

Is this a plea to 'get rid of the swamp' US style by getting rid of the civil service like Trump has got rid of virtually all the state department, concentrating power into the executive????

The EU wanted to settle Brexit. It was uncertainty for them too.

The UK had the power of NOT triggering a50.

They also had a legal obligation to respect democratic votes. It could have happened with this this called diplomacy, rather than taking a sledge hammer and bargaining chips.

You cannot 'make Brexit work' AND keep traditional wiring of how Downing St works

Now as a bear of little brain, that piqued my interest.

Has it ever been articulated so concisely before ?

Nice pic

I don't ever recall a pm having to go on the record as saying they're driving from the front. At the risk of overextending an already tired metaphor, I fear this means that someone's already cut the brake cables.