Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

I googled this title EU demands that Britain ‘start negotiating seriously’ over Brexit and got the full article.

I'll try pasting it in my next post but yes, that was the gist.


Michel Barnier and David Davis before the start of the third round of Brexit talks on Monday © AP
• Share on Twitter (opens new window))



• Share on Facebook (opens new window))



• Share on Whatsapp (opens new window))



Save

6 HOURS AGO by: Alex Barker in Brussels, Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris and Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin
Brussels called on the UK on Monday to “start negotiating seriously” on Brexit and unambiguously set out its positions on leaving the EU, as France and Germany held firm in supporting a divorce-first sequence for talks.
Opening the third round of Brexit talks in Brussels on Monday, Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, bluntly voiced concern that London was wasting time by refusing to engage on separation issues such as a financial settlement.
His counterpart David Davis, the UK’s Brexit secretary, in turn rejected the suggestion that Britain was holding back as he called for more “flexibility” and “imagination” in the EU’s approach.
Your browser does not support the video tag.._

The polite but pointed exchange reflected the low expectations of progress in this round of talks, and growing concerns on the EU side that Britain is underestimating what concessions are needed to move on to trade discussions in October.
“To be honest I am concerned. Time passes quickly,” Mr Barnier said, as he called for papers on “all separation issues”.
To be honest I am concerned. Time passes quickly . . . We must start negotiating seriously. We need UK papers that are clear in order to have constructive negotiations
MICHEL BARNIER

“We must start negotiating seriously. We need UK papers that are clear in order to have constructive negotiations. The sooner we remove the ambiguity, the sooner we will be in a position to be able to discuss the future relationship and a transition period.”
Mr Barnier rarely makes reference to a “transition” after the UK leaves the EU in 2019. The comment was intended to encourage the UK to further develop and clarify its position amid signs that Westminster has softened on the terms and duration of an interim period that would ease its exit from the bloc, particularly for business.
The hint is likely to be little comfort to Mr Davis, who called for the two sides to “drive forward the technical discussions on all areas”. His team wants their EU counterparts to recognise that future trade relations are impossible to separate from the terms of Britain’s exit and should be broached early.
As Britain issued a flurry of position papers over the summer, senior UK diplomats toured EU capitals urging governments to rein in hardliners at the European Commission and be more open to early trade talks.
The overtures were resisted, however, with France and Germany privately telling other EU member states to “hold the line” on requiring Britain to settle divorce issues before trade talks can begin, according to two senior European diplomats.
RECOMMENDED
• May under pressure as Labour makes U-turn on single market
• Hollow ring to Brexiters’ Rule Britannia
• FT View: Britain lays out a menu of fudge for its ECJ red line
Concerns are growing across the EU’s remaining 27 member states that a stand-off over Britain’s exit bill will mean insufficient progress will be made by October to allow trade talks to begin, as both sides had hoped.
Given Britain’s reluctance to discuss financial issues, some French diplomats expect December to be a more realistic turning point in talks. “We need serious and tangible signals from Theresa May on the budget in October to be able to say, let’s try to wrap this first phase up in December,” the French diplomat said. “We need to sort out the past first. The past comes before the future.”
Another senior EU official said if Britain delays any concessions on the financial settlement until after the Conservative party conference, in early October, it may leave too little time for the EU to agree a positive response.
French officials, meanwhile, dismissed reports in the Daily Telegraph that they were willing to compromise on money in order to quickly progress to trade talks. “Allegations that Paris wants to start trade talks with UK are baseless and hold no truth,” said an Elysee official.

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, also used a podcast over the weekend to make clear the UK must meet its financial obligations. The European Commission privately estimates the liabilities to be up to €100bn gross and €60bn net.
“This is about obligations that Great Britain has entered into and that naturally must remain on the books,” Ms Merkel said. “It’s not about the cost of divorce — that makes it sound like fines. We’re still at the very start of these negotiations.”
British and EU diplomats privately acknowledge that a solution to Britain’s exit bill will partly come from a transition arrangement, which would effectively continue UK budget contributions. However, neither side is yet willing to initiate talks on the issue.
Transition payments of around €10bn a year net would cover the short-term black hole in the EU budget, while allowing Britain to cast them as the cost of an implementation period and trade relationship, rather than as old debts.
Some negotiators are hopeful about a softening of the UK position regarding the transition and the role of European courts. But the diplomacy around a transition and any exit bill remains potentially fraught.
French diplomats involved in EU affairs are dismayed by the UK’s summer initiatives — portraying government papers on the UK’s future relationship with the EU as “off topic”, “confused” and “poor on substance”.
Berlin, too, saw Britain’s ideas on a future customs arrangement as Britain again attempting to draw the benefits of EU membership while leaving the union. “The problem is the lack of clarity,” said one eurozone diplomat involved in Brexit. “We are asking ourselves: ‘What do they want?’
Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI German industry association, warned the British Government on Monday that it still lacked a clear line over Brexit. “Despite the declarations of unity of government members you cannot recognise an agreed line. These are bad starting conditions for the third round of negotiations. Significant progress is hardly to be expected.”

Can't link to the thread tonight but will in the morning. In the meantime if you can find it, it's worth it.

Katie @ Supermathkid
Hey fun game, what's the worst reason you heard someone give for voting Leave, mine is still 'tuition fees'

It's a classic.

Honestly what are our Brexit objectives and how are we going to achieve them?

Less immigration isn't really viable nor a full and proper answer if need low skilled immigration and without it we have labour shortages.

The answer has to include how you get unemployed Brits to do the jobs that are now vacant.

I'm yet to see any government strategy on this one apart from 'remove benefits'.

Which is kinda flawed if people aren't trained in whatever highly skilled occupation it happens to be or lack the ability to travel to these jobs.

Instead it's 'cut funding per head for schools' etc.

Leavers are not thick but when there is no joined up thinking beyond 'get rid of immigration' in how we actually deal and compensate for less immigration then we are certainly not better off.

Thanks prettybird.

OMG, that thread, RedToothBrush. it's simultaneously hilarious and utterly depressing.

Police confirm 'significant' investigation into Conservative election call centre

The Information Commissioner’s Office also confirmed it is ‘currently investigating the Conservative Party’

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-call-centre-tory-party-police-investigation-south-wales-neath-labour-mp-wayne-david-a7912641.html

Police say they are carrying out an investigation of “scale and significance” into allegations the Conservative Party broke the law during the election campaign with its use of a call centre in Wales.

The investigation into the contracting of the business in Neath was confirmed in a letter from South Wales Police to Labour MP Wayne David

Secret footage obtained by Channel 4 News suggested the Tories may have broken data protection and election laws by using Blue Telecoms to directly contact voters in marginal seats.

Labour Leave voters not prepared to sacrifice as much for Brexit as Tory Leave voters

(and I really wonder how much those claiming they'd sacrifice their own job really mean it.
Are they assuming they'd easily get another one of similar pay, conditions & commute ? )

UK-US trade could be derailed by 19 lost deals after Brexit, say MPs

19 bilateral and multilateral agreements connected to commercial matters could be in jeopardy.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/28/uk-us-trade-could-be-derailed-in-at-least-19-ways-after-brexit

Agriculture, food and drink feature heavily among the19 US-EU agreements highlighted by Open Britain,
including a fisheries convention for the north-west Atlantic,
public health guarantees for beef, veal and pork, and
agreements over the trade in bananas and
duties on whiskies, gin and other spirits.

Other arrangements highlighted by the group cover wine, rice, cereals and and livestock.

Another area highlighted by the group is the Open Skies deal, in force since 1992,
which establishes a single aviation market between the EU and the US, allowing competition without restriction.

Among the 19 deals are some that cover more general areas, such as customs arrangements and competition.

www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/12/1661585/-for-f-ck-s-sake-lefties-Louise-Mensch-is-not-your-gahtdamb-bloody-f-cking-friend

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/aug/28/trump-tweets-hoax-louise-mensch-claude-taylor

Louise Mensch is apparently not much of a journalist.
It's not enough just to want Trump gone. He has to go for the right reasons. The truth is important.

RedToothBrush
Less immigration isn't really viable nor a full and proper answer if need low skilled immigration and without it we have labour shortages.

The answer has to include how you get unemployed Brits to do the jobs that are now vacant

How did we cope before Maastricht?
What is the impact on jobs and vacancies in the countries that the migrants come from?
How do they cope with the resultant labour shortage? Does their fruit rot in the fields?

B) Counting our blessings that we were never foolish enough to have joined the Euro. Celebrating we're getting out.

Not sure why anyone would celebrate leaving something you were never a part of, but whatever floats your boat... Who am I to judge, etc...

I have encountered another Leave poster here on MN (on another thread) who also conflated the Eurozone with the EU. How strange to find two of you. Is there a script of some sort?

Cafeconleche
What are you going to do if Brexit doesn't actually happen?
Well thats what brings me back here. It's clear that after a year since your loss in the Referendum, The Gina Miller challenge, the vote in Parliament to trigger Article 50, the formal triggering of Artcle 50, your agenda is still clear. A forlorn hope that somehow you manage to call the whole thing off.

If that does happen, I will continue to voice my opposition to a corrupt, undemocratic, bureaucratic and failing institution that is the EU.

The only major political party that fought the last election on an overtly Remain platform did wonderfully well didn't it?

that, instead of your continued rhetoric, could you actually tell us how ending FOM is going to improve your life and that if others?

And the UK did in fact join the EU, as a signatory to the Maastricht Treaty. The UK got an opt out from the Euro at that point.

Leavers have clearly not been paying much attention to the body from which they are so anxious to separate.

corrupt, undemocratic, bureaucratic and failing institution that is the EU

Blimey, there really is a script.

That
Really? Shared heritage, history, main language, national parliament, values and currency for centuries?

Do you think Scotland has less in common with England than Bulgaria has with Belgium?

Do you believe 'Northern Ireland' has shared heritage, history, main language, national parliament, values and currency for centuries with only one state and that that state is across the Irish Sea?

You don't know much of the history of what is now the UK over the centuries, or the history of developments of the last century, or of the last 40 years, do you?

Your mention of Scotland makes me suspect NI isn't on your radar at all..

That
...corrupt, inefficient, unwieldy ragtag collection of 28 divergent economies...

Would you like me to post some sort of pictorial representation of boom vs gloom in the UK, so you can explain what exactly it is that Wales and Northeast England, for example, have in common with London?

www.scottisheconomywatch.com/.a/6a015393ec64ea970b01bb089cc9e0970d-pi

www.ons.gov.uk/resource?uri=/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2016provisionalresults/ccd58faf.png

The only incoherent fantasy here is the U in UK.

Well prior to Maastricht the uk had suffered years of recession with many of its own workers taking advantage of their rights to work in the EEC as the economic situation here was dire. At the time if signing the uk was again in recession. When the uk economy started to pick up we could have taken a break on immigrants from newer members as they desperately needed workers in boost the economy.

A knowledge of history is important.

It's probably time to stop engaging with the village xenophobe/idiot who clearly doesn't understand anything. There's nothing of substance when you don't live in reality.

That
You wouldn't see me ignoring THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE

The GFA was voted on by the people of NI and Ireland. It is not going to survive Brexit, despite the fact that NI voted to Remain.

Scotland voted to remain too.

It was the will of England voters that produced that resounding 52-48 majority.

When it comes to history, why is it that Remainers seem more keen to remind us on the Highland Clearance, the Irish Famine, beating children for speaking Welsh etc etc...But yet strangely quiet on, I don't know, more recent history.....I don't know, let me think...
The Holocaust of 6 million Jews
Collaboration and collusion of the French with the Third Reich
Deportation of thousands of Jews from the Netherlands to the death camps of Poland

So how many Jews did the UK allow to immigrate during the 1930s? How many Jews did the British allow to enter Palestine during the 1930s and 1940s?

Remind me again who fought against whom in the area now known as Israel during the years 1944-1948?

Could you possibly be more dismissive of the suffering caused by British occupation of Ireland and Scotland? Or more offensive?

Maybe you would like to venture further afield and describe the horrors attendant upon the withdrawal of the British from India/Pakistan, and the famines, massacres, exploitation, etc that marked British rule in India?
The concentration camps of the Boer War?

There is so much scope out there for offense and demonstration of rampant ignorance.

But of course German businesses are going to come riding to our rescue

twitter.com/grahambsi/status/902278669267333120

German industry definitely will not see a business opportunity in replacing all those lost UK exports when customs barriers go up.

Wow, bigchoc. All those people happy to lose their jobs for brexit! I can only assume they were planning on retiring soon anyway.

That
So the EU is corrupt according to you..
But buying votes is northern Ireland is OK? Using tax payers money with no consultation to potentially derail peace is OK?
Just as long as brexit goes ahead and bugger the economy?
I sent my leaver friend a list of questions and he hasn't answered one. No-one seems to have any.

Mathanxiety - ignorant visitors are amusing to entertain at the time especially rebutting the so called arguments as they were so shallow but it's re-hashing old ground and there's so much more interesting material around - especially the UK's non negotiations and the EU's consistent position.

We can have informed discussion of true historical contexts and new trade deals we will be missing out in but which will be easier to close without the UK being awakward without being sidetracked.

"The only major political party that fought the last election on an overtly Remain platform did wonderfully well didn't it?"

Which party rain on an overtly Remain platform? I would have voted for them!!

They all ran on Leave platforms. The LibDems said they would organise a 2nd Referendum to confirm the first Referendum. That was the best choice I had.