Westminstenders: Boom. The Brexit Backlash starts to hit.

[RedToothBrush]

So it turns out that immigration figures that stated students overstayed were wrong. The home office knew this. And sat on it. Since 2015. Under Theresa.

That smells a bit doesn't it?

Imagine it: "Let's do lunch Paul. I'll cover up and give you a nice immigration story for your front page. In return, crown me PM."

Then tonight BOOM. Labour look like they have made a move. Soft very swishy Brexit. Even less brexity than the Beano Brexit that the Tories have been trying to announce on the quiet over the summer whilst Brexiteers are on holiday.

amp.theguardian.com/global/2017/aug/26/labour-calls-for-lengthy-transitional-period-post-brexit
Labour makes dramatic shift on Brexit and single market
Party opens clear divide with Tories, with support for free movement and paying into EU budgets for up to four years

Labour is to announce a dramatic policy shift by backing continued membership of the EU single market beyond March 2019, when Britain leaves the EU, establishing a clear dividing line with the Tories on Brexit for the first time.

In a move that positions it decisively as the party of “soft Brexit”, Labour will support full participation in the single market and customs union during a lengthy “transitional period” that it believes could last between two and four years after the day of departure, it is to announce on Sunday.

This will mean that under a Labour government the UK would continue to abide by the EU’s free movement rules, accept the jurisdiction of the European court of justice on trade and economic issues, and pay into the EU budget for a period of years after Brexit, in the hope of lessening the shock of leaving to the UK economy. In a further move that will delight many pro-EU Labour backers, Jeremy Corbyn’s party will also leave open the option of the UK remaining a member of the customs union and single market for good, beyond the end of the transitional period.

Why would Labour suddenly do this? It's not just because of the youth vote. What about their leave voters?

Faisal Islam on the subject:
2. On Labour Leavers is very very interesting and involves quite the psephological judgement re the election....
...the calculation appears to be that Labour Leave voters had the chance to vote for Theresa May's brand of Brexit, and bar 5 seats, said No
Was that because Lableave voters were already signalled "hard Brexit"? Or many millions such voters much more concerned about other things?

Have Labour been polling their voters on this?

Theresa has also apparently set her sell by date: Friday 30th August 2019.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-sets-date-shell-quit-11061894.amp
Theresa May sets date she'll quit as Prime Minister - giving herself time to see Britain through Brexit

The longer the transition and the squishier it gets, the more the more you wonder.

Mr Barnier will enjoy his coffee and newspapers tomorrow as he prepares for round two of Brexit talks starting next week.

The question on his mind most: Will David Davis remember to bring his notes this time?

So how many Jews did the UK allow to immigrate during the 1930s? How many Jews did the British allow to enter Palestine during the 1930s and 1940s?

Remind me again who fought against whom in the area now known as Israel during the years 1944-1948?

Thank you so much for posting that, math could tell you a few family stories on those. Cheers

Barnier's politesse alongside ours has worn thin.

Enough is really enough.

I agree prettybird

Yeah, Mensch, once a tory ............... She dropped the story of our missing remainer dad like a hot potato.

that stop thinking about fruit pickers. That's not the only issue with stopping the FOM (and/or pushing out eu citizens already settled in the uk).

The issue is that we only have a 4.4% unemployment rate, which is pretty close to full time employment. Wo those pesky immigrants, there will physically not be enough people to take all the jobs, which will be and for the economy.
And of course that's wo going into the details of what sort of people have come here and wether the uk has any chance to replace them (so yes that's the people who are caring for the elderly etc... as well as your nurses and your highly trained professionals - whatever the subject).

You cannot compare how the uk coped 'before' to now because the situation is totally different, on an economic pov.
And you cannot rely on people still being happy to come over, even with strict immigration rules that will allow you to 'choose' who is coming because the uk is making a fool of itself and is show casing itself as a country with no respect for human rights, humatarian crisis etc etc. And THESE are things that people will be sensitive to. Because they have a massive impact on the quality of life in that country, even when you earn way way above the average wage for that country. The UK is not that attractive anymore you will be relieved to know (as immigration numbers are going down).

math thank for that.
Sometimes, itbeasy to only remember the bits that fit within the rethoric and forget all the less favourable bits for your own history

Yeah, Mensch, once a tory ............... She dropped the story of our missing remainer dad like a hot potato.

I had to stop following Mensch on Twitter because she made my head implode. I try and ignore her as much as possible now and don't find I am missing anything of any worth.

The answer has to include how you get unemployed Brits to do the jobs that are now vacant

How did we cope before Maastricht?

We had roving gangs of fruit pickers - Irish Travellers and the like. They were of course, welcomed with Open Arms. Before the War, East Enders went down to Kent to pick hops. I can't somehow see the bankers of Canary Wharf doing this.

How do they cope with the resultant labour shortage? Does their fruit rot in the fields?

Globally there is a huge problem of food wastage, starting from it rotting in the fields or being devoured by pests, or rotting in warehouses, due to lack of transport or corruption.

You cannot compare how the uk coped 'before' to now because the situation is totally different, on an economic pov.

We imported staff from the Commonwealth. Recall your history lessons of the Empire Windrush.

We imported staff from the Commonwealth. Recall your history lessons of the Empire Windrush.

I think we have already established that history is not their strong point.

I think we have already established that history is not their strong point.
or much else for that matter.

It's like having our very own Daily Mail random quote generator

We should be flattered.

There have to be better album titles than Parklife though.

And thanks to all of you for having my back last night.

It is an amazing coincidence that we get our very own brexiteer propaganda machine just when Labour announce their position on the transition period.

It was sort of fun for a bit though, but they got more and more tedious and incoherent over the weekend and the novelty wore off. I was disappointed they only seemed to have the immigration FAQ sheet and didn't move onto fishing rights, payments to the EU or my very favourite "sovereignty".

I did really enjoy the conversation around the brexit message that went on around it though. It has given me lots to think about while reading leaver tweets.

How did we cope before Maastricht?

I'm not sure we did in many respects.

For starters our health service had huge waiting lists.

Education wasn't as good. Fewer people went to university.

I do agree that the focus on academic rather than vocational education since Maastricht has been a bad thing for many though. This however is a domestic policy and fuck all to do with the EU and could be changed without the need to join the EU.

Trade faced barriers and red tape which cost us money and meant we had a larger burden on companies and the state.

The transition to joining didn't involve a huge shock to the system which was detrimental to us, and it had a plan which business could access and understood.

Pre-EU UK is not some kind of utopia. Plus since this is now 2017 and not 1992 the world has changed somewhat and has become more globalised which leaving the EU will not change. The desire to go back to a time when this wasn't the case is frankly delusional.

We could fix a lot of the problems the UK has staying in the EU. If we have problems where British citizens have problems with education and training to be competitive with EU citizens there is nothing in EU law stopping us from doing that. There is also nothing in EU law which prevents us from working on public transportation solutions to enable people who live in communities which are disconnected to where jobs are.

If those two things changed then the opportunities for EU citizens would be less.

But we are not seeing initiatives of this nature even though Brexit actually REQUIRES them.

Its little things like removing bursaries for nurse training, which are really the problem and drive EU immigration to the UK. However we are not fixing the issue of not training the number of nurses we need and people who might be able to fill that void, simply don't have the means and ability to do that, unassisted.

I have a friend who is an amazing mental health care assistant, who had ambitions to train to become a nurse. She'd be great at it. The reality is for her, is with the abolition of these bursaries is its not possible. She is already struggling with juggling child care, shifts and living costs. She simply does not have either the time or money to take that step.

Housing is another. We have huge problems with it, because of lack of investment in social housing, and we instead spend far more in relative terms putting up homeless people in emergency accommodation. Just for an ideological attitude rather than one that is good for society as a whole.

Instead of building the houses we need, developers only want to build huge houses that are beyond the means of those who most need them. They get these through planning by buttering up local councillors.

Affordable housing has been given a bad name, due to certain media attitudes. Plus many schemes that do exist are dodgy as fuck (leasehold issues and shared ownership clauses). These are not governed by EU law. Housing prices are also higher than they should be because of foreign investment and because so many with money decided to buy up property in cheaper areas (often the same ones who voted Brexit out of a dislike of government policy) for a quick buck.

There is nothing in sight about cracking down on multiple home ownership, precisely because a second type of Leaver (by virtue of their age) has a tendency to be these landlords. So group A is being shafted directly by group B of leavers. And there is a total disconnect and unwillingness to admit this for obvious political reasons.

The bottom line, is that instead on having a good look at the problems we have, and trying to find solutions to them, we blamed the EU for our own political incompetence and are now creating a whole pile of new problems which will only make the existing ones worse, not better because we are using all our time on managing Brexit in a rush and quick fix manner rather than spending time getting to the heart of the problems properly.

But yes, its about how we coped before Maastricht...

(In short we have a British ability to miss the point and poor management skills in identifying problems with in our society, because of our fucked up politics and political class).

It is an amazing coincidence Well..........

Also see 'Before Maastricht' and NI and how the two are related.

twitter.com/supermathskid/status/902236793520742400

The twitter thread on the worse reasons for voting for Brexit

Don't get me wrong there were lots of dumb reasons why people voted to remain. Thing is, Leave won, and many of these reasons are not aging well.

Bigly I thought he rather proved my theory about Leaver rhetoric being stagnant because it was directed back in time with the what did we do before Maastricht comment. With all due respect to those who have put up a brave attempt to explain, what happened in the 70s is simply not relevant to the world we now live in. The disconnect with that reality is striking.

Latest example of Home Office inhumanity, you must leave the U.K. a month after giving birth and leave your baby here...... www.hertsad.co.uk/news/st-albans-family-with-newborn-will-be-torn-apart-after-visa-application-refusal-1-5161392?utm_content=bufferdf794&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

What an appalling story ron. At best we must hope that the publicity is damaging, and the HO will be forced into a change of heart.

Agreed Red

And this mindset that refuses to recognise the true political reasons behind our problems, which impacted disproportionately on the poorest and most vulnerable in our society and instead to blame the EU is also why we have such poor productivity compared to other European countries.

It's easier to blame the outsiders rather than address the core issues

Apparently there's a Rachel Sylvester article on Boris Johnson. I'm wondering if I might have to go and buy it (behind pay-wall).

That's not quite true ... I'm hoping one of the technically competent people here might be able to read it and give a digest of its highlights. It's a shameless ask!!!!

I have a feeling it might be both informative and entertaining (and a little depressing, since Boris Johnson is a terrible joke that we are actually living with.)

Coming back to our earlier discussion on the housing market for Bear especially. The most recent figures comparing the disparity between London and the South East and the rest of the UK.

www.nationwide.co.uk/~/media/MainSite/documents/about/house-price-index/2017/Aug_2017.pdf

On a related topic of the UK's reliance or not on EU migrants it is worth noting that 1/3 of all EU nationals live in London although London only makes up 12% of the UK population (less if you adjust for the migrant proportion within London). In terms of the NHS and looking after old people etc it is also noteworthy that London has significantly fewer old and disabled people per head than rUK.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-travel-visas-eu-will-be-travel-chaos-a7910826.html
Unless we transform airports, Brexit is going to be travel chaos

Why haven't we even announced whether we are getting British only queues now, so that we can be ready in time?

Have we got the designers in for the new blue passports yet?

I think the designs for the new blue passports are in hand - I think they redesign every few years anyway. What we won't be able to do is go back to the old one with the little windows in the cover because it wouldn't conform to ICAO standards.

ron that story is horrifying