Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

[OlennasWimple]

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

Whilst I can only hope that *Misti is right, I have a vivid mental image, Blackadder style, of whistles blowing and cries of "over the top boys".

Whilst I can only hope that *Misti is right, I have a vivid mental image, Blackadder style, of whistles blowing and cries of "over the top boys".

For me the only remaining question is the relative likelihood of an unplanned, chaotic brexit versus stepping back from the cliff edge.

If a planned brexit can't happen (and I am absolutely persuaded that it can't) then only two outcomes are possible. I'd put the chances at maybe 65:35 in favour of no brexit at all versus a chaotic brexit.

I agree with Misti, it's either going to happen and be an utter disaster, or a way out has to be found.

Or - is there a chance that we could move to some interim arrangement that's basically the same as what we have now while we sort it all out (effectively an extension?). I am not sure there is even time to organize an orderly move to EFTA type arrangements is there? Or could there be with massive fudges going on? Hard Brexiters will go crazy but they will go crazy at some point anyway.

I am clinging to the idea that disorderly exit would be pretty bad for the EU too, so hoping that if the last minute we said "Hang on chaps, can we just extend this a bit, or basically move to this slightly different arrangement that's basically the same for a while", they will say yes.

Fintan O'Toole's transition period scenario will only work if the Tory circle that wants a hard Brexit can be overcome between now and March 2019. The libertarian righthas huge plans for the UK and its public services and its minimum wage, and they will not roll over and die just because Philip Hammond speaks something close to reason.

If Ireland is to play hardball in the early months of 2019, whoever is then Taoiseach had better be completely sure that the UK government will fear walking away with nothing more than the prospect of facing the hawks on the Right.

Ireland had her own walk-away-with-nothing or try-to-salvage-something moment back in 1921. Michael Collins signed the Anglo Irish Treaty in December of that year and remarked that he had signed his death warrant. He was correct. He was ambushed and killed during the subsequent Irish civil war.

Or - is there a chance that we could move to some interim arrangement that's basically the same as what we have now while we sort it all out (effectively an extension?). I am not sure there is even time to organize an orderly move to EFTA type arrangements is there? Or could there be with massive fudges going on?

I just can't see how this would work. Extension of the A50 period is fhe most do-able, but as i understand it, would require the unanimous agreement of the EU27. And Britain would remain a full EU member during this period.

I do think this is possible - unpalatable to both the EU and the brexiters, but legally do-able. However, I'd put it in with my "no-brexit" scenario, since one extension to A50 creates a precedent and gives more time for everyone to come to their senses.

Other, "halfway house" solutions either require substantial negotiation and planning, or fall foul of international law. A transition via EFTA/EEA membership needs upstream negotiation, then time to implement - this option does not remove the customs border questions. I doubt there is time now.

I used to think that some sort of indefinite transition was likely, but (a) a transition implies that both parties are clear what they aee transiting towards (ie requires negotiations to have concluded successfully) and (b) a transition state outside the existing "off the shelf" EFTA/EEA structures would appear to fall foul of WTO/GATT rules on comprehensive trade agreements.

A planned Brexit does look extremely unlikely, as you say, Misti, but will that be enough to stop chaotic Brexit which many Brexiteers seem to have a weird fetish for? It would be a comfort to think that the consequences of this will become more obvious over the next, say, 6-12 months, parliament will grow a backbone and it will be averted but... My (far from infallible) instinct says events this autumn are going to be crucial: Tory leadership challenges; what is said/the rhetoric used at party conferences; how much progress is made on the three fundamentals - NI, EU citizens, divorce bill; what happens with jobs/inflation and whether there is any distinct change in sentiment.

I'm still looking forward to seeing the Tories squirm over Ireland. I cannot envisage a land or sea border. All sides will want to protect the GFA. They will need to be some sort of dispensation for NI. That would likely piss Scotland off who might want a half in half out fudge.

Also, whether the coalition with the DUP remains feasible.

Meanwhile, a source claims Lynton Crosby's firm was paid at least £4 million for co-ordinating the worst general election campaign ever

Since the election, Crosby has defended May’s decision to call an early general election and warned against writing off the embattled prime minister.

He has also played down the influence of the youth turnout on the result, while predicting more people would vote for Brexit should another referendum be held.

While speaking at a business lunch in Sydney, he claimed that voters had turned out for Jeremy Corbyn partly because they thought he would not win.

“On polling day, over 70% of voters thought the Conservatives were going to win,” Crosby said. “So they thought we’ll reward [Corbyn] for being prepared to talk about interesting things and shake the system up, but we’ll still have the comfort of having Theresa May as prime minister at the end of the day.”

TM gone by October then?

I've heard of people planning to holiday in non-Euro EU countries to avoid the poor exchange rate € to £, but they may be shocked. Having visited such a country, I was surprised how expensive it seemed. I'm no economist, but I suppose Brexit has negatively affected the £ against other currencies. The £ has dipped 15% against this one since May 16:

www.poundsterlinglive.com/best-exchange-rates/british-pound-to-croatian-kuna-exchange-rate-on-2016-05-20

What has become clear to me o rd tgrcpast few months is that a chaotic brexit is exactly what the tory hard right want

Sounds mad but for them it will hand them the opportunity they have been desperate for....to return the UK to the 1930s

over the past

There are certainly people on the hard left and on the Vulcan right, as well as a few vultures who are wealthy enough to be 'above politics', who will expect to gain from 'creative destruction'.

It's pretty scary to be living through a period of revolutionary change. I wish I wasn't in my 50s, and with children of university age.

amp.ft.com/content/ffad1ab2-7c43-11e7-ab01-a13271d1ee9c
Labour Europhiles raise pressure to change Brexit stance
MPs back calls to stay in single market after shift in trade union mood

The pressure comes after a change of mood in the trade union movement over Brexit, with growing numbers of trade unionists arguing that EU rules will prove the most effective protection for UK workers after Brexit.

And

An ally of Keir Starmer, Labour’s Brexit spokesman, declined to comment on the pressure for a shift. But there are indications the party leadership recognises the pressure on the issue.

Another voice of experience joining in the current chorus of criticism of Brexit, this time Davis's former Chief of staff. He was always a Remainer but what may be significant is that this has arrived in my inbox from both Vince Cable and Chukka and he also copied in Anna Soubry, Nicky Morgan, Rachel Reeves, Nicholas Soames, Pat McFadden and Stella Creasy.

Hester This Summer I have had a string of visitors from non EU /non European countries for exactly that reason, taking advantage of the favourable exchange rate. If anyone thinks that is a good thing, encouraging money into the economy, many had savings / investments in Sterling or even just remnant bank accounts if they are expats /economic migrants from the U.K., all of which are now transferred into other currencies.

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-david-davis-james-chapman_uk_598a0f90e4b0a66b8baf42b5?

red the idea of pitching any change as a 'shift in the trade union mood' looks more like finding an excuse for changing your position (in a good way) than anything else.

Only 2 (small) unions - the RMT and the bakers and allied workers union - came out in support of leaving the EU - and this was after months of internal polling and debating to try to reflect the views of the majority membership. That's not to say there aren't leavers at grass roots level - I am sure there are, although equally there is nothing to suggest they are necessarily Labour Party supporters.

The TUC strongly backed remaining in the EU, while at the same time recognising some big EU issues that need dealing with - eg posted workers, limits on strike rights, outrageous behaviour viz Greece, Portugal, Spain etc.

The union movement seems to me to have remained pretty consistent since June 2016. Ie any brexit deal must prioritise economic prosperity and decent jobs.

Figment I completely agree.

Its PR not a policy change by the Unions. But interesting to see none the less, for exactly that reason.

A big chunk of the PLP always saw sense, it just didn't have the balls to act on it (except for some London politicians, like Lammy and Khan).

Another interpretation is that Labour has been biding its time with its faux-pro-brexit stance, waiting for the public mood to change.

Does this mean the Labour Party is starting to see sense?

I wrote to my new, Corbynite, Labour MP back in June (and I was very polite, and congratulated him on his election, and didn't even mention that I voted for the other guy). Not even an acknowledgement. I am very not impressed.

Does this mean the Labour Party is starting to see sense?
But weren't paid up members already more likely to be Remain? I suppose the Labour leadership were also worried about losing votes to UKIP, but since they have collapsed, and the ardent Leavers have gone Tory, but been replaced by others worried about prices, education or the NHS, perhaps they have realised that they needn't worry.

Having said that Corbyn himself was always a Lexiter or at the best a lukewarm remainer.

www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/amber-rudd-urges-police-use-10957617
Amber Rudd urges police to use 'tactical' stop and search to combat acid attacks
The Home Secretary called on police forces to “confront” the threat with “appropriate” use of the controversial powers.

Dear Amber,

Can you explain how this would have stopped the acid attack, last week, three streets from me? There are no police to stop and search anyone in the vast majority of places.

How about restricting the ability to buy the stuff in the first place? You know 'regulations' and 'red tape'. Like what experts have been recommending.

Oh right experts. Gotcha. Its 2017. I forgot we don't do sensible anymore. As long as someone is making money from the sale of acid that's fine. Victims will be charged for their treatment soon anyway so, that's covered too.

Its like the government are just totally obsessed with the country becoming a police state in which we have no freedom and they are just looking for any shit old excuse to justify infringing liberty.

www.independent.co.uk/voices/theresa-may-rupert-murdoch-fox-sky-news-takeover-the-sun-donald-trump-a7882756.html
Theresa May could claw back some credibility by blocking Murdoch's latest bid – but Trump won't let her

Trump and Murdoch are exceedingly close. They are believed to speak every day. Some regard Murdoch as Trump’s most influential adviser outside the West Wing

Blog on Brexit and 'taking back control'

chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/brexit-data-protection-and-myth-of.html
Brexit, data protection, and the myth of 'taking back control'

The likelihood is that, in practice, ECJ judgments will be applied in the UK. Indeed the government’s own formulation, both in the White Paper and in its spokesperson’s response to Lord Neuberger, that Brexit will end the “direct jurisdiction” of the ECJ seems to suggest just that: what will happen is ‘indirect jurisdiction’.

So the data protection legislation is an early glimpse of just how meaningless the mantra of ‘taking back control’ and ‘making our own laws’ really is. The reality is that – unless the plan is for complete economic autarky, and I wouldn’t put that past some of the Brexit Jacobins – the UK will have less control over law making than it had as an EU member. The data protection case is an example of how, as I wrote at the time of the White Paper, what is in prospect is the creation of a whole host of shadow regulations and institutions to mirror those of the EU. In other words, a situation where the reality is less control will be created in order to give the illusion of having control so as to assuage (what the White Paper calls) the “feeling” of having lost control by being in the EU.

You could laugh so hard, you cry.