Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

[OlennasWimple]

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

The low tax haven idea is dead? Well we are truly fucked then, it was the only workable post brexit economic model where the UK as a nation could come out of it ok

Disagree with that tbh. It was incompatible with a deal with the EU on good terms. Ireland border would ultimately be major sticking point on that. Plus 'come out ok' is term that would not be applicable universally, and therefore one used by people who might be on the better off side post-Brexit.

There was no way the UK could come out ok in any scenario.

Andrew Lilico on importance of experts and what we should do research into:

Andrew Lilico @ andrew_lilico
Has anyone done a systematic study trying to prove sightings of angels, saints & aliens are all instances of the same phenomenon/condition?

All the important stuff you see. Unlike, y'know, immigration.

Chris Lockwood @ chrislockwd
Hear from v senior sources that on daily basis foreign companies telling govt will start leaving w/o clarity on Brexit in next few months.

Clarity impossible when you have all out cabinet war.

Who possibly could have seen this coming?

A new Jack of Kent blog talking about mandates given by General Elections and Referendums (Referenda?). Well worth reading IMO.

rtb I'm talking literally in economic models sense. Low tax haven was the only one that economists could put forward on the leave side that didn't damage us. It's not an ideological standpoint I conform to. But it's almost the last part of workable brexit that's fallen. I don't think anyone can seriously claim we can do this without massively damaging ourselves now.

It also comes into that information widely available before the referendum but many leavers claim to know nothing of it realm.

That workable was meant to be 'workable'.
I feel the need to use the hand gestures whilst saying it too

Did anyone see 'Pride' on TV last night? Were those the places with a high Leave vote?

I never knew the miners on strike were harassed so much by the police. I wonder were instructions given from higher up or was it some sergeants working on their own initiative. Awful to see the promise that those who returned to work first would save their jobs. There have been liars around for a while. Before the Leave campaigners, even. I imagine the regional funding will be amazeballs from Westminster. Just like it has always been. Alternatives for the replacement of the loss of the heavy industry.

twitter.com/RichardThomas37/status/891606041263210497

Caill....googke battle of orgreave

I agree with you on student fees Figment.

Jagger's lyrics only serve to reinforce his image as a feckless father citizen of nowhere - not sure if that was the desired effect

It was Hammond whose interview to a German newspaper was interpreted as threatening the Singapore model in the first place. Significant the current comments are in a French newspaper? Looks like a bit of a challenge to the Macron change agenda.

Interesting comment on the banking sector this morning. Banks and financial institutions are not approaching post Brexit EU regulatory issues by moving to one new location - beneficiaries so far are Frankfurt, Dublin, Amsterdam, Luxembourg and Brussels. Therefore challenger to London looks unlikely.

Howabout are you saying that banks and financial institutions are approaching EU regulatory issues by moving to new locations in the EU to do their EU regulated business? So they will not doing their EU regulated business in London anymore if not now come March 2019?

Ooh, someone I know in RL has commented on the Richard Thomas tweet. (sorry, sidetrack)

Is losing that EU Regulated banking/financial services business and the UK jobs that go with that business, and the supporting business infrastructure (lawyers, accountants, financial PR, city businesses servicing this work - cafes, restaurants, coffee shops etc) an acceptable outcome for Brexit to be achieved?

No I'm saying there have always been name plate operations for tax and regulatory reasons all over different EU countries and therefore Brexit is a minor tweak in that context.

Re the Deutsche article Bigchoc posted yesterday. They are in the process of restructuring and shrinking their balance sheet to improve the capital ratio. In that context relocating parts of the business to the German head office looks inevitable and not much to do with Brexit. The article talks in terms of a couple of hundred London jobs. For context they have made German redundancies in the thousands over the last year.

Is losing that EU Regulated banking/financial services business and the UK jobs that go with that business, and the supporting business infrastructure (lawyers, accountants, financial PR, city businesses servicing this work - cafes, restaurants, coffee shops etc) an acceptable outcome for Brexit to be achieved?

What sort of regime prefers to lose the intellectuals and knowledge base ?

And the good news just keeps coming

www.theguardian.com/business/2017/jul/31/british-motorists-car-repair-bills-hard-brexit

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Simon Goodley
Monday 31 July 2017 00.01 BST
British motorists face a 10% rise in the cost of their annual car service and repair bills if the UK leaves the EU without a trade deal, an industry body has warned.^

The UK’s collective car repair bill could rise by more than £2bn due to tariffs and other barriers arising from a hard Brexit, according to a report published by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), which assumes the UK is forced to fall back on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.

(contd)

Howabout Most financial institutions are waiting to hear where the EBA will be based before deciding where to move, so there might still be a concentration of banking in a single city post Brexit.

Regardless, the UK will lose many thousands of banking jobs, and given that the multiplier effect in banking / high-tech services is 4-5, this will mean the loss of 4-5 additional jobs for every banking job lost, with resulting effects on employment / taxes.

(c'n'p fail )

maybe there is so much "good news" to be shouted from the rooftops, the Brexiteers just haven't got time to argue about it anymore.

A thoughtful article from the New York Times about how the Dunkirk spirit won't save us, and didn't actually help us win the war. For this he credits the Americans; personally I think he should also credit Hitler's mistake in declaring war on Russia, which took the emphasis away from Western Europe.

X-post with JWIM!

Howabout It was a simple yes or no answer to my question. I did not give a number of jobs, just identified that there would be jobs lost. Are the loss of those jobs in EU Regulated banking and Financial Business, and the supporting 'jobs' infrastructure in the city locations in the UK where such business is currently located, an acceptable outcome for Brexit to be achieved?

I was thinking about the invokation of "Dunkirk spirit" in regard to "making Brexit a success" over the weekend. Helped along by a visit to the Battle of Britain exhibition hall at IWM Duxford (highly recommended).

My two takeouts were rather simple:

1. The Dunkirk (or Blitz) spirit was a result of a 99+% unified nation battling a visible evil, which was not of Britain's making.

There is zero parallel with Brexit. In fact, the subjects are wholly perpendicular .

2. The Dunkirk (or Blitz) spirit was actively managed up by the government through the inflation/manipulation/propagation of casualty impact on the Germans.

And there we do see a link.

When I see Dunkirk/Blitz spirit mentioned in the context of Brexit, my stomach turns. It is so utterly disrespectful of the contributions, instability and hardship of so many....it genuinely disgusts me.

There is no doubt that in terms of bringing military personnel home, Dunkirk was an astonishing success, but in terms of fighting Hitler? A rout. Not that the Brexiters like you to say this, I have already been taken to task by them in past months.

I don't doubt that people are stoic and will carry on and make the best of things - but I don't yet see the sunlit uplands that were promised.

I doubt the EU will allow banks to just nameplate or just tweak their business. They will have to be able to cover any risk in the EU, not from the UK. I seem to remember a statement to this effect. The UK won't be at the table when the EU27 decide on the rules now. It is whatever is in the interests of the EU really.

Another thing, everyone on tv is going on about staying in the customs union to give frictionless trade. You will still have stop and checks with the customs union. It was the single market in '93 that got rid of the Irish border visibility and lead to frictionless trade.

A lot of denial going on.

I'm living in Germany, observing firms already moving out of the UK. Clear changes starting to ramp up.
UK business mostly still has its head in the sand. German business plans and prepares in advance

In my (large German) tech company, longterm UK suppliers I used on several high tech projects have already lost out on contracts for new ones (and it was already more admin for me to use them, because of being outside the Euro)

The move by Deutsche Bank is something that they wanted to do - not only because their base is in Frankfurt - but there was no commercial justification before Brexit Ref.
Now there is.

The EU is not keen on replacing London with another centralized financial center.
Sharing out the functions and jobs around a few EU capitals looks like a strategic decision
No more putting all eggs in one basket (also they want to avoid disagreement over which basket)