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Brexit

Westminsterenders: The Ersatz ImitationThread

968 replies

OlennasWimple · 25/07/2017 20:59

I am no RedToothBrush, so I'm not going to try to emulate her exception OP style.

Here, though, in the interests of carrying on our conversations about WTF is going on with Brexit and the weird political world we find ourselves in right now, is a sort of continuation thread

(Hurry back Red, we need you!)

OP posts:
Thread gallery
22
BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 17:26

It doesn't matter whether one thinks joining the then EEC 45 years ago was the right or wrong decision
The world has moved on since then

We have to deal with the current outlook for the UK,
in which leaving the EU means leaving all trade deals with every country,
losing financial passporting
having to negotiate to carry on vital services once the uk no longer belongs to agencies like EURATOM, or to agreements that allow international flights.

Old enemies are licking their lips at the thought of the once mighty UK being so helpless
At blocking approval at the WTO of the Uk's quotas and arrangements
At a UK that can't afford to negotiate the usual 10 years for trade deals, so will just bend over.

LurkingHusband · 30/07/2017 17:35

Starting up think that I'll need to plant plenty of winter

Remember, you can eat weeds ...

blog.metmuseum.org/cloistersgardens/2010/10/29/weed-eating/

(All those history programmes actually did have some value ...)

LurkingHusband · 30/07/2017 17:36

It doesn't matter whether one thinks joining the then EEC 45 years ago was the right or wrong decision The world has moved on since then

Let's try a little though experiment ...

It doesn't matter whether one thinks leaving the EU a year ago was the right or wrong decision. The world has moved on since then.

(waits ...)

Mrsmartell08 · 30/07/2017 17:37

We are looking at getting an allotment

pointythings · 30/07/2017 17:52

LH given that certain leading Brexiteers think it's all great and that we'll see the benefits in anywhere from 20 to 100 years, I think you are being a bit unreasonable only giving them one year...

If I had until 2109 I might be able to produce a decent veg garden. Given that our house was one of the last two to be built on our estate, most of what we can currently harvest consists of half bricks, chunks of cement and random bits of rusty metal.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:05

NFU President (Telegraph paywall):
Pursuing cheap-at-all-costs food in post-Brexit trade could cost Britain dear

"It would be foolhardy, economically and strategically, to undermine our own food and farming industry
through agreeing a trade deal that places our own farmers at a competitive disadvantage"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/26/pursuing-cheap-at-all-cost-food-post-brexit-trade-could-cost/

Food/ agriculture / farming is the country’s biggest manufacturing sector

It's worth £109 billion to the economy, more than the aerospace and automobile industries combined.

It employs nearly 4 million people.
Farmers manage 70% of the UK land mass.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:06

Of course when did "being foolhardy" and "costing Britain dear" ever worry the 3 Brexiteers

MsHooliesCardigan · 30/07/2017 18:08

I have just got an allotment after waiting for 2 years. When I applied, it was just going to be a bit of a hobby. Now it could be essential.
The Brexit Arms appears to have called in the Receivers.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:09

(S Times paywall) Hammond eyes tax rises to plug budget hole

s://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/philip-hammond-eyes-tax-rises-to-plug-budget-hole-9z0l3spc2

Hammond is eyeing taxes on fuel, homes, pensions, incomes and business as he tries to use November’s budget to plug a multibillion-pound hole in public finances.
On Monday Treasury officials held their first meeting to thrash out budget details.

LurkingHusband · 30/07/2017 18:10

Hammond is eyeing taxes on fuel, homes, pensions, incomes and business as he tries to use November’s budget to plug a multibillion-pound hole in public finances.

If there hasn't been an election by then, there will be soon after.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:11

What's left to tax (except billionaires) ?
Proposed tax on sex

To be imposed before or after sex ?

Neither
Instead of.

Mrsmartell08 · 30/07/2017 18:15

I'm surprised that there hasn't been a challenge to TM yet - she's on holiday after all

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:16

( S Times paywall) Leave campaign funder Arron Banks to testify on ‘Russia ties’ to Brexit and Donald Trump

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/leave-campaign-funder-arron-banks-to-testify-on-russia-ties-to-brexit-and-donald-trump-9dmsbqp3v

The prominent “leave” campaigner and millionaire businessman Arron Banks expects to be called to Washington to give evidence before the Senate into alleged ties between the Kremlin, Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign.

The prominent “leave” campaigner and millionaire businessman Arron Banks expects to be called to Washington to give evidence before the Senate
into alleged ties between the Kremlin, Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidential campaign

The business tycoon has already been asked to supply information to the Senate judiciary committee investigating alleged Russian interference in the 2016 presidential contest.

Now he claims he has been “tipped off” by the US authorities that he will be called to give evidence to the committee under threat of subpoena,
which means he could be barred from America if he fails to attend.

Earlier this year the former Ukip donor had threatened to sue Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, over claims that he is a “pro-Russian actor”.

The businessman, who helped to bankroll the Brexit campaign, issued a press release saying he was taking legal proceedings against Atlantic Council over its report entitled The Kremlin’s Trojan Horses.

It mentions Banks’s name under the heading of “pro-Russian actors” along with figures such as the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and Ukip’s former leader Nigel Farage

Last month Farage had to dismiss claims that he is a “person of interest” in the FBI’s investigation into the Trump campaign for the presidency and its suspected collusion with Russia.

He said the reports were “completely baloney”.

howabout · 30/07/2017 18:29

That'll be the NFU's riposte to Dieter Helme yesterday.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40760114

Suggestions for PH's problem. Proper review of tax and NI share paid by self employed. NI on earned income of pensioners.

The new no petrol or diesel strategy is going to need a whole redesign of transport taxes as well.

Build some social housing and stop paying so much HB to private landlords.

Re Labour being the party of high tax and spend that is not really what the stats show.

www.economicshelp.org/blog/5326/economics/government-spending/

However what the charts do tend to show is that if the economy is growing the deficit takes care of itself.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:29

(FT paywall) Philip Hammond seeks ‘off-the-shelf’ Brexit transition

https://www.ft.com/content/cc1dbf04-71fc-11e7-aca6-c6bd07df1a3c

BUT

The EU says the only transition model offering single market access it would accept

would see Britain stripped of voting rights and influence in Brussels
but obliged to accept European Court rulings, free movement rules and budget contributions

< Could a Tory govt really survive such a transition deal ? No wonder the Barron Bots are out in force
The E27 are adamant that the UK shall NOT participate in the 2019 EU Parliament elections.
They want rid - especially of Farage >

In a dramatic shift in cabinet thinking on the issue, Eurosceptic ministers including
Michael Gove and Liam Fox have indicated they are prepared to accept such conditions for a time-limited period in the interests of a business-friendly exit Hmm

< Tory negotiating at its best. Another "row of the summer" = UK side collapsing ? >

Business leaders called into No 11 Downing Street on Monday to discuss Brexit with the chancellor were
told by Mr Hammond that there was not enough time for a “bespoke” deal to be negotiated before April 2019.

< as we've all been saying ! >

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 18:34

"if the economy is growing the deficit takes care of itself."

Indeed and if Brexit damages the economy ....
(which is a reasonable assumption for a UK emerging naked, without trade deals or membership of vital enabling agencies )

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 19:04

Deutsche Bank May Move 300 Billion Euros from UK to Frankfurt Due to Brexit

http://www.financemagnates.com/institutional-forex/regulation/deutsche-bank-may-move-300-billion-euros-uk-frankfurt-due-brexit/

Bloomberg reports that Deutsche Bank is considering shifting 300 billion euros from its UK arm to Frankfurt.
This is nearly a fifth of Deutsche Bank’s balance sheet, 1.59 trillion euros as of last year.

According to Bloomberg’s sources,
the reason appears to be the migration of assets and retail trading to the European continent due to Brexit.

Bowline, Deutsche Bank’s project, aims for investment in Frankfurt to come into effect in September 2018, and for the assets to be moved by March 2019
......
According to Bloomberg, John Cryan, Deutsche Bank CEO, said in a videotaped message to his staff that
he is hoping for a hard Brexit

Apparently, in this situation, the majority of the trades that were placed in London will move to Frankfurt

According to other familiar sources, Deutsche Bank’s plan likely further entails shifting the jobs of a few hundred traders and about 20,000 client accounts.

In his video, Mr. Cryan commented that this move is inevitable.
“There’s an awful lot of detail to be ironed out and agreed.
But inevitably roles will need to be either moved, or at least added in Frankfurt.”

The German bank will begin notifying clients of the shift in September 2017, and plans on having established a front-to-back technology and processes by June 2018, commented a source.

missmoon · 30/07/2017 20:08

September 2017 is crunch time, this is what I've heard too from former students working in banks and in other sectors.

QuentinSummers · 30/07/2017 20:15

This is all such a mess. You would've thought the Tories could have agreed some kind of plan before triggering Article 50. The complete cock wombles
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40767023

lalalonglegs · 30/07/2017 20:22

Autumn could be crunch time for other reasons, imo. It will certainly mean that TM will be at her most vulnerable in the run up to conference and she will have to pull off a cracking performance to carry on as PM afterwards. But, as Andrew Rawnsley put it today, the Tories are "led by someone so hopeless at retail politics that Mrs May couldn’t have sold a glass of water to a man dying of thirst".

rosietosey · 30/07/2017 20:44

I follow the threads avidly, but have NC for other reasons.

Anyway, I can tell you all now, that the NI/ROI border issue is a biggie. Maybe not on the Mainland yet, but it could herald the return of trouble. The DUP are laughing in the face of ROI Varadker with their "choices" for him. As if it is his problem. But they have a swagger about them now propping up the Government.

The other side up in NI are getting angry at the arrogance of the dancing partners in May's Government. It hasn't kicked off yet as the Assembly is still in disarray.

Now you could say, well Sinn Fein should take their seats. There is a valid political reason for them not to. And even if they did, they would not get any seats at all in the next GE, so where does that leave them?

ROI is rightly nervous and frankly pissed off. The struggle to recover from the recession was hard won, but the light at the end of the tunnel is waning now. Can you imagine the effect a hard Brexit will have on them, and none of it their making.

I could go on, but I am very saddened that it has come to this. However, I am delighted to see the Foreign Minister Coveney and Varadker throwing down the gauntlet now. It has to come to this.

It is in many eyes a small part of Brexit, but it could have untold repercussions.

Ireland will never leave the EU.

Chatter indicates that either the border is at sea or a United Ireland ex UK. The UI won't happen, the DUP don't want a border at sea. So what is the solution?

Jesus. Sorry, it is close to home for me.

Artisanjam · 30/07/2017 21:01

There's also a crunch coming in NI as the government are requiring the benefit cap to be implemented including the rape clause.

In NI I understand it is a criminal offence not to report a crime so if you try to invoke the rape clause without reporting rape to the police you've committed an offence.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 21:08

Trump would abandon May / the UK like a bad smell, if the RoI tells Irish Americans of Brexit damage

Remember that Trump attended a Sinn Fein / IRA fundraiser with Gerry Adams in New York, while the IRA was bombing London.
The power of the Irish American vote, which nearly all US politicians bow to.

BigChocFrenzy · 30/07/2017 21:11

(Ashamed Tory Matthew Parris, Times paywall)
The Conservatives are criminally incompetent

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-conservatives-are-criminally-incompetent-zbnppmx92
.....
There is a main culprit here, and it isn’t any of these candidates.
Labour didn’t cause this mess.
Whitehall didn’t frame the task, even if it is ill-equipped for its execution.
Theresa May may not be up to the job but it’s a job into which she has been forced.

The Brexit secretary is playing it by ear with no guide to the melody
....
Do the voters even begin to understand how this mess is entirely of the Conservative Party’s creation?

The Tories are turning Brexit into a humiliating shambles.

They called a referendum when they didn’t have to,
they accepted the result,
they willed Brexit,
they promised Brexit,
and now they’re comprehensively failing to organise it.

You can’t blame the voters, who quite reasonably assumed that the Tories would never have offered a referendum if they hadn’t thought leaving Europe could be arranged.

The fingerprints for this crime of mismanagement are Tory fingerprints.

The coming years will be a permanent stain on my party’s reputation

Thirteen months since the referendum and the Conservatives still can’t decide even the broadest outline of the terms on which we hope to leave.

The difference between a soft and a hard exit is greater than the difference between staying in and a soft exit,
yet the prime minister is still insisting that government policy is for a hard exit, while the chancellor (in her absence) says the opposite.

Nobody really knows what the foreign secretary thinks and I doubt he knows himself.

The Brexit secretary, meanwhile, seems to be trying to play it by ear, but with no guidance as to the melody at all.

And the trade secretary seems recently to have reconciled himself to three (or, if the chancellor is to be believed, as many as four) further years without any job at all.

Some ministers say we’ll be taking back control of immigration when we leave in 2019, others that we will not.

And almost everybody has started to talk of a “transitional” period after leaving,
without any hint of a consensus on what we would be transitioning to.

Every Conservative MP bar Kenneth Clarke voted in February for the triggering of Article 50.
It now appears they and their leader started the countdown to Britain’s expulsion without even the vaguest plan for what we’d be aiming to achieve,
let alone realistically likely to achieve.

Worse, they pulled the trigger knowing very well that “Brexit” still meant different things to different members of the party and its government,
and there was no reason to hope that divergent aims were ever likely to converge.

I call this criminal:

irresponsible to the point of culpable recklessness towards their country’s future.

The Conservative Party just thought they’d give it a whirl and all but one of them voted for the adventure.

Even in bad times, even when we Tories messed up, I used to feel a pride in the party to which I owe so much.

Often too slow, sometimes too rash, sometimes wrong, sometimes mildly corrupt, often missing the public mood, occasionally cowardly,
it was still possible to trace through the party’s long history a line of worldly common sense, a distrust of extremism,
and a deep sense of duty to the nation.

There was a certain steadiness there.
Has this deserted us?

Do we yet understand, has it yet been born in on us, that it is we and we alone who have led the whole country into the predicament it now finds itself in?
....
The prime minister has gone away.
“Ladybird, ladybird,” we might cry, “fly away home! Your house is on fire, your children are gone!”

Except that we’re better off without her flapping around, spouting implausibilities.
Perhaps reality in the shape of Philip Hammond may gradually bear down upon fantasy;
perhaps forlorn hopes may steal silently away and various fools, while not repenting of their folly, allow it to slip their recollection.
I hope so.
I left Spain feeling ashamed to be British.

I return to England ashamed to be a Conservative.

Figmentofmyimagination · 30/07/2017 21:23

Plant a fruit tree? Eg apples - in your garden? I know it takes a while to get going but I thought about this after the ref vote. I've got as far as preparing the corner of the garden.