Westministenders: Transition

[RedToothBrush]

Last thread opener, it was all about the government buzz word being shown to listen at every opportunity.

Now transition is creeping in as people realise that no we can't just do a settlement, arrange a new trade deal with the EU and have a whole host of other deals in place in two years.

Who'd have thought.

We will be getting Brexit because we give in to threats of terrorism. Not quite getting how that takes back control.

But Brexit will be good. It will be glorious. And in the long term we will be better off for it.

Er ok.

grump oh I think we have many diplomats out there who know precisely how the EU operates. This government aren't interested that though as it doesn't play into the fairy tale they constructed for themselves.

I think they genuinely thought they had enough allies in such awe (like UK are with the us) they could play divide and conquer, then bully their way through. They've got no clue now that's been shown to be bull.

UK diplomats performed brilliantly for decades in the EU, before the referendum malarkey:

• The Uk has only been on the losing side in 2% of votes, abstained on 1%, so won 97%
• The Single Market was mainly Maggie's brainchild She liked FOM too, because it helps business and helps the mobile mc whom she liked.
• The accession of the formerly communist ruled East European countries was pushed massively by the UK - and the US - tomsyrengthen the West and weaken Russia. The other EU members wanted to wait until the economies had caught up more - and to let the political systems recover after decades of dictatorship and oppression.

What went wrong:

• The Uk was the #3 power when inside the EU
  It has lost all this power and is now being treated as a "third country" in waiting.
  After 43 years, it has not adjusted to this sudden loss of power and influence over the EU

• Since the referendum, the govt hasn't been able to agree on any of the possible Brexits (unicorns are impossible)
  So, the diplomats have no defined aim
  If you drive aimlessly around, ignoring traffic signs too, you may not end up anywhere useful - but will probably crash.

www.tremr.com/pete-north/a-way-forward-for-brexit

Pete North - A way forward for Brexit

I don't agree with everything North says, but I see the point he is trying to make and could live with an EEA/EFTA solution.

I also think he is spot on when he says

This insane drive for an absolutist sovereignty that doesn't really exist, in pursuit of an independence that is neither desirable or even possible in this interconnected world, is one that will ultimately destroy British credibility and ensure that we will likely never recover what we lose

I don't agree with everything North says, but

He's a bit dim.

You can't compare the downsides of Leave against the "downsides" of Remain.

If the UK remains, it's within it's gift to work to change the future direction of the EU that North wants to equate with the definite downsides of Leave and deficiencies in their position.

( o'clock chez nous )

I need to catch up but if anyone has not posted this before, wise words from the late great John Smith, the best PM we never had and certainly head and shoulders above all who followed him

You're showing your age Ron - but I agree, John Smith was the greatest PM we never had

I still remember the shock when the news came through about his death.

I will forever believe that Smith would have had the courage, conviction and skill to persuade enough of middle England to vote Labour without going down the route of appeasement that Blair pursued for power.

Liberal Democrats @ libdems
There is a gaping hole in the centre of British politics. We have an opportunity – and a duty – to occupy it under @vincecable’s leadership.

Alan White @ aljwhite
"The Lib Dems will occupy your gaping hole." Best political slogan I've ever seen.

UK food exports to the EU will stop for several months after Brexit and be heavily restricted even longer

< subtitle: why Liam Fox is talking through his arse, as always >

The problem, as usual, is that Brexiters don't understand:

• the UK will become a "third country" from the day after Brexit
• the consequences of being a third country
• the difference between "belonging to" the Single Market - no border controls - and "access to" it : the complicated non-tariff barriers, not just tariffs (which could be offset by the lower pound)

Barnier speech 7 July:
"For a third country, 100% of imports of live animals and products of animal origin … are and would remain subject to EU border controls"

An example of EU border controls - that would apply to the U.K.,
Article 229, EU regulation 2016/429 applies to all fresh meat & animal products imported into the EU from outside:

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32016R0429&qid=1486817283161&from=EN

1) Goods must come from a country officially listed as permitted by the EU to export this category of goods. 

< the UK is an EU member, hence NOT on this list.
The UK will have to apply after Brexit and satisfy Article 230 of EU regulation 2016/429.
There appears to be a 6 month wait built in between the Commission approving any new listing and it actually taking effect >

2) Goods must come from establishments which are approved and listed by the EU

3) Goods must comply with all relevant animal health specified by the EU

4) Goods must be accompanied by several documents, declarations, certificates, e.g. animal health certificates

5) Each consignment of goods must be presented to an EU  Border Control Post where they must pass inspection. 

The exporter must pay fees , obtain endorsement of the specified Common Veterinary Entry Documents, then present the goods for customs clearance.

Summarizing:

• A wait of 6+ months before any UK exports of fresh meat or animal products are allowed
• After this period, UK exporters must bear the costs, extra red tape (which Brexit was supposed to reduce), delays
• UK exporters may have lost their original customers by then, anyway - and would struggle to regain them when facing extra costs and delays that EU competitors don't have.

I must admit I spat my tea out when I read that red

Labour Women's Network have written to Theresa May asking for more women on the Brexit negotiation team. There's only one out of 11. Good letter. This from their Facebook page.
m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1623853740967376&id=109287432424022&tn=C-R

Hashi and Big Choc. Thanks for your comments, mine was said in a semi sarcastic way as I know we have/had some good EU operators but it's amazing at how inept we have become.

I still can't believe its not deliberate, even after the election debacle. I'm still trying to see some clever strategy underpinning it all.

Many in the UK would very much like to ban the export of live animals for slaughter. EU law currently prevents this.

www.countrylife.co.uk/articles/148648-148648

And, just to add to farmers' woes, here is Michael Gove the Shy Environmentalist, looking for ways to cut those subsidies:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-40673559

Ah yes, I heard that on the radio this morning Tanith. I must say as much as I welcome Gove's sudden conversation to environmentalism and localism, I do rather suspect this will prove a helpful way of reducing the costs of subsidies while blaming the farmers for being evil destroyers of the countryside. Of course the money will be there for those who meet the criteria, but won't it be a sad, sad indictment of the farming community that so few of them meet the environmental standards needed to claim the cash.

This Government is amazingly good at reducing funding for people while managing to put the blame at the feet of the very people being hurt by the cuts. It's hard not to view this announcement through that lense.

The problem, as usual, is that Brexiters don't understand:
+ the UK will become a "third country" from the day after Brexit

I think this maybe the most succinct summary of why we are where we are.

The Brexiteer camp have managed to collectively convince themselves of snowflake status.

I rather fear we've sleepwalked into a situation where power and responsibility have become separate . A quick flick through the real history books (with words, not the picture books the Brexit brigade read) will suggest that countries that arrive at that state rarely leave peacefully.

Ah so now brexit will be green as well as red, white and blue.
Does that just make a shit brown brexit?

p.s. Echo all that was said about John Smith.

There was a (series of) programme(s) (BBC) over a decade ago along the lines of "What if ...?".

One looked at if John Smith had not died and lead the Labour party to victory in 1997. The general consensus was that the world would be a very different place. If for no other fact than JS would have never got the UK so involved with the US and may very well have been able to moderate the US to a much more internationalist position.

I think one of Tony Blairs crosses to bear is he knows this.

news.sky.com/story/scheduling-conflict-for-liam-fox-at-the-wto-10955853
Scheduling conflict for Liam Fox at the WTO

I want a pink and purple Brexit. To go with my unicorn and my sunlit uplands. And I want it with glitter.

howabout All UK food exports to the EU will stop - live animals are only a small % of that.
So all live exports of meat, meat products, grains, cereals, fruit, veg etc will be stopped
That will hammer UK farmers

Also, afaik there is nothing stopping the UK from banning live exports from the UK
EU law only forbids banning imports from other member states

BigChoc I think the current situation is that if the UK government banned live animal exports to the EU, the exporters could appeal to the EU as this would be a constraint on the free movement of goods.

I can't think that such a ban would be given any priority post Brexit, though. There is likely to be plenty of criticism from the agricultural lobby on other issues, without the UK government choosing to hack them off yet further.