Westministenders: Transition

[RedToothBrush]

Last thread opener, it was all about the government buzz word being shown to listen at every opportunity.

Now transition is creeping in as people realise that no we can't just do a settlement, arrange a new trade deal with the EU and have a whole host of other deals in place in two years.

Who'd have thought.

We will be getting Brexit because we give in to threats of terrorism. Not quite getting how that takes back control.

But Brexit will be good. It will be glorious. And in the long term we will be better off for it.

Er ok.

TSE @ TSEofPB
David Davis has 30 MPs backing him as leader - Sunday Telegraph

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 41% (-4)
CON: 39% (-)
LDEM: 8% (+1)
UKIP: 6% (+2)

(via @Survation, 14 - 15 Jul)

No it's not a French plot. It's a British fuck up.

Just saying

I have a DD born in the last week of August, with the rest of my DCs born in April/May. August DD has classmates who were born almost a full 12 months before her. It didn't hold her back socially as she was the youngest of 5 and used to a good deal of give and take and also dealing with people older than her. The one elementary classmate who was even younger than her was among the brightest in the class though by the end of 8th grade (in the US, age 13 average) he was a good deal smaller than the other boys. I think a lot of outcomes depend on individual circumstances.

I think government needs to start seeing good quality childcare as a vital part of infrastructure. It contributes to better educational outcomes, so education expenditure isn't wasted further down the road, and it enables parents - mainly women - who might otherwise leave the workforce to contribute talent and taxes. At the moment, a huge chunk of the population is basically written off educationally-speaking, and another huge group - mothers - are written off because of the frequent impossibility of combining parenthood and work. Resources of every kind are wasted.

Germans tell Irish that the British are a 'disgrace'

"They found the British finance committee unprepared for Brexit and said they didn't seem to have considered the impact leaving the EU would have on Britain's economy," Mr Craughwell said.

www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/germans-tell-irish-that-the-british-are-a-disgrace-35935039.html

The NHS is ranked top overall in this study of 11 countries' healthcare systems (inc. Germany, Sweden, US, Australia and Canada).

We must save it.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.newscientist.com/article/2140698-us-ranked-worst-healthcare-system-while-the-nhs-is-the-best/amp/

Yes Ghost, anyone might think the Govt WANT the Brexit talks to collapse.

I suppose if the Finance Committee had done their homework, they'd had had to admit we were up shit creek without a paddle acknowledge there were major hurdles to overcome. As it is, they can genuinely claim to be ignorant unaware of any potential problems and therefore when they arise, they can be genuinely surprised and blame the EU

After all, if the EU can foresee potential issues, it must be their fault.

Interesting link Hester and just shows how misleading surveys and headlines can be. NHS is 10th out of 11 for health outcomes but somehow manages to come out top over all?

I am equally sceptical about the student informed Uni rankings.

I would be more than a little surprised and disappointed if the UK Finance Committee were prepared to carry out Brexit fully as the Germans would wish and to the principle benefit of the German economy.

(not that I am even sure who they mean by the "British Finance Committee"?)

I think it is a problem with headline reporting howabout as much as anything. The headlines are all "NHS is th best" when it's more complex than that. It's important to recognise that what makes a health service great is more than simple clinical outcomes for those that use it. If people can't access the healthcare than it can be the best in the world, but as a system it is allowing people to die needlessly. At the same time everyone can access the NHS, but the care they get when they do is not always good enough at the moment. This study demonstrates to me that the principles of the NHS are sound, but we need to work on the quality of healthcare outcomes. We need to remember that universal access is vital.

To have a genuinely great healthcare system you must have one that is accessible as the NHS, free at the point of use for all, and provides excellent health care outcomes. This costs money though and at the moment we spend far less per capita than most other countries on our healthcare. NI needs to go up so we can improve the NHS care outcomes, but we currently have a Government who is more interested in selling of the NHS than providing universal, excellent healthcare in this country.

How strange that the gov't don't eve see to care about consequences on the country. Even if they were going to trigger article 50, make sure your ducks are in a row first. Instead they are just making it a political arena when they need to concentrate on the technicalities.

In Barnier's speech on 12th, he outlines an example of cars and their saleability after the UK becomes a third country on midnight end March 2019. The Commission are looking at the details. The Con's still want to make it just a political row. When Barnier talks about a transitional period, he means a transition allowing for businesses to get their houses in order. The future relationship is about relations with the UK as a third country. A new trade agreement will be discussed after the UK is a third country and is a different kettle of fish. The British gov't still talk about a transition as a bridge to a new trade agreement.

From that IT article: "The report states that it was a shared view that the UK "acted irresponsibly" and was "ill prepared" for the ongoing Brexit negotiations."

It feels like pirates are now in charge of the UK.

Here's a link to the breakdown per country across the 5 measures (exhibit 2)

www.commonwealthfund.org/interactives/2017/july/mirror-mirror/

The entire report makes very interesting reading...the declining death rate in exhibit 4 due to (poor) healthcare in UK since 2004 raises enormous questions IMHO around old age care care provision, state pension and continuing nhs provision, particularly under the current funding model and the impact of Brexit on future public coffers, exiting employees and potential OAP returns en masse from the Costas etc.

I've got pretty bad flu and feel a bit weak, but it makes frightening reading for me.

And yes, the 10/11 score on healthcare outcomes based on current state is not making me feel any better about that

Barnier and the Commission want to go through the legal obligations 'line by line'. Davis just wants to have a political row. The gov't know the UK has made commitments.

If the UK reneges, I suppose the EU will block WTO membership. Then a trade war? Sanctions? Who was supposed to think this through and make sure the UK was in a good place with the timing?

howabout and bigly the report behind that article is here and the UK does indeed come out top, but this is largely a function of the scoring system.

www.commonwealthfund.org/interactives/2017/july/mirror-mirror/

They looked at access, equity, the care process, administrative efficiency, and health care outcomes. The NHS scored very well on the first four, because they are essentially measures of how well a healthcare system is designed, and a well-run free-at-the-point of use system with good clinical practice of course scores extremely on all these points. The NHS is fundamentally more efficient than any insurance based system which requires a bureaucracy to chase payments through the system. It also has no financial incentive to implement inefficient care processes (insurance based systems often have care processes which result in systematic overtreatment because of the financial incentive to provide care).

Where the NHS scores poorly is on healthcare outcomes, and this is logical too: healthcare is costly and compared to its peers the UK does not spend enough on healthcare.

I havent read the full report as I have to go paint a ceiling (cries) but that's my take from a quick skim.

declining death rate in exhibit 4 due to (poor) healthcare in UK since 2004 raises enormous questions IMHO around old age care care provision

And on this point it is important to remember that a lot of the issues around old age care and care for chronic disabilities, not to mention log jams in hospitals are due to collapsing social care services, caused by cost cutting in local government.

We must put more money in all parts of the system if we want to have acceptable health care for all.

Worth a read, not just for the reminder that Hammond is a thoroughly unpleasant person, but also for the clear indication of all out war in the Tory cabinet. It really comes across as factions starting to leak against each other now. I can't see how they can last out the rest of the year in one piece.

Chancellor Philip Hammond 'says public sector workers overpaid'
news.sky.com/story/chancellor-philip-hammond-says-public-sector-workers-overpaid-10950268

Who was supposed to think this through and make sure the UK was in a good place with the timing?

They've definitely thought it through. Their aim is to leave without a deal, and then when the country is reeling from the shock of what this implies introduce, under guise of economic necessity, the most radical free market policies that irradicate all traces of the welfare state. Tax cuts, privatisations, school voucher system, the end of the NHS and public services. Hand Britain over to corporate investors lock stock and the proverbial barrel.

So, is this actually plausible? I confess Mike Galsworthy makes me go a bit squiffy (good-looking scientist talking passionately about remaining in the EU..phew. ) so I am not sure I can read it with the objectivity it requires.

Euratom is the perfect test case for revoking Article 50
www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2017/07/13/euratom-is-the-perfect-test-case-for-revoking-article-50

Exactly grump. And it's not like leavers can lie and say they never knew about that, the coverage of the economic outcome was daily at times and the likes of gove spoke of burning everything to the ground. No excuse for sticking you fingers in your ears and going lalalalalalalala.

Jeepers, in the Linfield/Celtic match, the fans were attacking the actual players.

One of the Celtic players was booked for timewasting after he showed the referee a Buckfast bottle which had been thrown as a missile at him.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/linfield-face-penalties-after-yobs-ruin-historic-night-and-attack-celtic-players-with-bottles-and-coins-35933394.html

Off piste, but blikin' heck, I'd feel aggrieved.

Gumpen, that is going around/past it rather that dealing with it. It is like when you ignore all your bills, eviction correspondence and medical results etc.

There needs to be a fully functioning country for all it's citizens/subjects. The details are key to that. Whether cars can still be legally sold across to the EU etc. to every minutiae which is intrinsic to the normal function of peoples lives and trade.

howabout What is shocking Barnier, German leaders etc is

UK Govt and MPs are shockingly ignorant about Brexit and its affects on the UK

They have completely insufficient knowledge to protect the U.K. from disaster.
Yes, a Brexit crash will affect the EU too, because Europe is so interconnected

However it is the UK - and it's people - who will suffer most from their ignorance

Undoing 40 years of integration is incredibly complex and they don't seem to acknowledge or even be aware of this reality, let alone have plans to cope.

Longtime Leavers like the Norths and Booker , who have researched Brexit for many years, have been warning of disaster all year.
I'm not sure why you seem to think ignorance is bliss and that it will all turn out well in the end

Do you believe DD & May have a secret master plan that will turn this all around ?
I really would like to think they have, but imo they are too arrogant and ignorant.

The disgraceful violence at Linfield illustrates yet again the danger of weakening the GFA.

Those who claim the violence can't flare up again may not remember that at the start of the Troubles there were only a very few Republicans who participated in or supported serious violence

• far more Loyalist mob violence, plus the Loyalist gang that was the then RUC.

However, IRA violence - and support - rocketed upwards within a couple of years, due to arrogance, ignorance and brutality by the British state.

If this govt makes the GFA a casualty of Brexit, then don't expect the violence to stay in NI, like it did for so long.
The IRA have learned that a couple of well-placed bombs in the London Financial Centre strikes terror in any U.K. govt, who would regard thousands of dead civilians as merely acceptable collateral damage.

Whatever Brexit supporters and media might wish:

• The RoI will NOT leave the EU, to help the govt with their "NI" problem.
• Republicans will blame the U.K, not the EU, for any damage to the RoI or NI

• they think Ireland has too long suffered from the "English problem"