Westministenders: Hey Hey we're the Monkies.

[RedToothBrush]

Welcome to the Listening Parliament.

Have you noticed it yet?

The Three Monkeys of See No Evil, Hear No Evil and Speak No Evil have been in a bit of a fight with didn’t fair well. Its funny how politicians of all shades and levels are desperate to prove just how good they at listening and how they see the problems.

Its quite incredible to think that officials elected to serve the public are even in this position where they are having suddenly think about how they show they are listening. It rather shows up that they have been accustomed to telling the public what to think and what to believe.

What they are still to work out, is that in saying they are listening, they also have to demonstrate they are listening and be credible.

The trouble is, that even though some of the monkeys have been killed off, we still have a lot of monkeys in parliament. 'Monkey say, Monkey do' actions still lurk. Politicians who imitate others without understanding the consequences.

There is no point in listening if you are only listening to one group and don’t understand the consequences of simply repeating the words of others.

Politicians saying they are listening when you can find dozens of incidents where they have said completely the opposition, without having the gumption to explain they have changed their position and without having the grace to explain the evidence that has lead them to change that position rather undermines the idea they are listening.

U-Turns are not a bad thing. U-Turns can show that you were making an error but were wise enough to admit that and why you were wrong. U-Turns are bad when you fail to acknowledge your failings and only do it to chase votes. This is where cynicism creeps in and lack of trust in politicians occurs.

Listening also requires actions to reflect words. There is no good in saying one thing, if your actions don’t reflect that. This is where the Listening Parliament is already failing. And I’m sure we will see it more.

Above all, listening is only part of a conversation. A politician is supposed to be accountable. They are supposed to have their eyes open to evil, not deaf to it and not unwilling to speak inconvenient truths where they recognise the evil.

Any politician who tells you they listen needs to back it up somehow. They need to demonstrate and justify their positions accurately. If they don’t they aren’t listening properly.

Isn’t it funny how it was in Hartlepool that the monkey got hung for being a Frenchman? No one was there to explain differently.

I don't disagree with the points on under investment but this was going on way before Brexit vote. The UK's chronic lack of drive and decisiveness in infrastructure spending was there anyway but Austerity didn't help despite GO donning his hi-vis at every opportunity.

I feel a bit silly asking this, but does anyone have an update on how the Brexit negotiations are going?

Are we waiting for UK to get back to EU with a decent offer for UK/EU expats and if so, does DD know that?

We're a quarter of a year into it and I'm a bit confused as to why there's not more visible attempts to pretend discussions are going on...

Coincidentally, I was just wondering this morning about the Nissan assurances:
If they made additional investment, or just kept current investment in the UK, then I presume - since they are hardheaded business people - that

either the investment is in a form that can be quickly switched out again as soon as a hard Brexit is announced
or they had additional (confidential) written and signed agreements from the govt about Brexit - either the type of Brexit or the compensation they would receive.
(The airyfairy quote about improving the UK supply chain wouldn't cut it - if a UK supply chain were simple / feasible, it would have existed before)

So Nissan, or other firms we haven't heard about, may be getting some expensive subsidies from us to stay - or they won't retool for the next vehicle models

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/20248b48-6193-11e7-91a7-502f7ee26895

Happy to see the EU Japan free trade deal wrapped up...

Under-investment generally is a longterm problem of British industry , going back at least to the early 20th century.
Industry has tended to be looked down on by the ruling classes as not a gentlemanly way to earn money

The rise of casino capitalism and vulture capitalism the last few decades has worsened this trend.

However, the concern over a WTO or CETA type deal after Brexit has naturally made many businesses freeze investment decisions until they know the form of Brexit.
Some, of course, are just investing abroad instead and moving jobs there too

Extract from above link in case its behind a wall:

EU strikes free trade deal with Japan
Tokyo opens up to agricultural goods, Brussels to Japanese cars

July 5, 2017 4:21 pm by Jim Brunsden in Brussels
Europe’s farmers will win prized access to the Japanese market as part of a free trade deal that will also sweep away tariffs that have impeded exports by Japan’s carmakers to the EU.

Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, and Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, will present the agreement in Brussels on Thursday, a day before G20 leaders meet in Germany. The deal is a boost for a global trading system that has been put under strain by the protectionist instincts of Donald Trump, US president, and a broader rise in economic nationalism.

The accord, reached after four years of talks, will remove tariffs from 99 per cent of goods traded between the EU and Japan, although in some cases lengthy transition periods of a decade or more will apply. The EU and Japan have also agreed to open up their public procurement markets to each other and to remove some non-tariff barriers to trade.

“As long as China and the US are off the table, this is basically the biggest FTA that Europe can pursue,” said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy.

Even the Express is writing about 'if the UK changes its mind about Brexit.' It seems the larger EU nations are having meetings about it. Italy, and others, would welcome the U.K. back. After our negative attitude, I feel surprised and humbled by that.
Also they apparently had a readers' online poll and could only muster 40% who still vote for Leave. This is a Leave rag!

www.express.co.uk/news/politics/823554/Italy-s-EU-Brexit-reverse-David-Davis-Theresa-May

As mentioned, Canada have said that if there were a "hard" Brexit they would cut and paste their CETA EU deal for the UK, sometimes called "grandfathering"

However, many of the other countries with whom the EU has trade deals, arrangements, MRAs etc may want to negotiate fresh deals, since they would be accessing a market of only 65 million instead of 500 million.
e.g. India and China have said this.

And of course, they would all know that the UK would leave the EU without any trade deals with anyone in the world so far (except the promise of Canada) which puts the UK in a much weaker negotiating position than an economy of its size would normally be.

Will "Art of the Deal" Trump be generous to the UK ?

Currently there 55 bilateral MRAs between the EU and the US, which enable us to trade in a relatively frictionless way across the Atlantic.

Trump might not have the attention span to have all these replaced, or indeed the ability to get this through Congress very quickly
Without that trade infrastructure in place, business experts have warned that UK exports to the USA would probably stop: it's the non-tariff barriers which would be the problem here.

Right. UK gets to make their very own special wider-world trade deals just like the Brexiteers said. Outstanding

Any progress on EU citizen rights I've missed?

One thing I heard in a (non-UK) Brexit discussion was an expectation that since the UK "started it" (so to speak) there was an onus on the UK to ensure whatever deals are negotiated are as least-worst as possible on the other parties.

Even if it couldn't be enforced, it would certainly inform how any UK proposals are seen.

How long have we got ?

Hester The E27 govts - and public - have been very irritated by the hostility from May and DD, plus of course the xenophobic nastiness from the Tory Brexit press .

However, E27 leaders won't let that get in the way of mutual benefit and common sense.

In the event of the UK looking over the cliff - and then requesting A50 revocation next year, i.e. Remain - Brussels would be sufficiently adult not to rub the UK's nose in it.
That's not how mature democracies do business
I'm sure that any halfway decent negotiator - and probably even the current shower - could ensure that the UK retained every single one of its current EU optouts.

BUT this would all be with the guarantee that the UK isn't going to invoke A50 in a couple of years time:
There has been concern in Brussels that the UK could use invoking and revoking as a a negotiating tactic to disrupt the EU until it agreed better terms.
They might require a written undertaking from both Tory and Labour not to revisit A50 for another X years at least.

No progress on EU/UK citizens' rights - the EU basically did a massive eye roll at TM's "generous offer". The negotiations, as I understand it, are to be held for one week, once a month and the next tranche of talks are due to start on 17th.

^ That was in reply to Divided.

Thank you la-la

The EU updates all info about position papers and progress on their Task Force A50* site*

So check latest EU position papers here:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/draft-eu-position-papers-article-50-negotiationsenn_

and task force news and organization etc here:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/departments/taskforce-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdomm_en

Thanks BigChoc very interesting. Makes me feel ashamed of our government.

A quick question: when you say 'opt-outs', do you mean Schengen, euro and the UK rebate? Do you really think the EU'd be prepared to let the UK keep all that despite all the Brexit trouble?

Hester The Uk is the 2nd, now 3rd largest economy in the current EU.
It also has a Security Council seat and the City of London financial services expertise

That's not enough to get a cake deal that would wreck the 4 principles of the EU, but it should be enough to rewind to pre-A50 and retain all optouts

From all the statements by Verhofstadt, Barnier and others, they would welcome back the UK

• if for no other reason that they realise that A50 as a horrendously complicated process that would take several years to completely sort out - it's trying to regain the original eggs from an omelette.

Also, they really don't want a large angry neighbour in chaos, festering just outside the EU borders.
We are all too inter-dependent in Europe to escape when any European economy is in trouble.

So, as I posted, I'd expect even DD & co to be able to negotiate a complete return to the situation pre-A50, i.e. keeping all optouts, including those you listed.

The EU wouldn't benefit from a bitter and humiliated UK picking a fight at every chance, but would benefit from a rather relieved one playing a full role again.

The proviso is that Barnier would have to devise a way to satisfy the E27 heads of govt - his bosses - that the UK isn't going to try A50 again within the next few years and restart the chaos,

David Allen Green‏*@davidallengreen*

Remember being introduced to Jacob Rees-Mogg at university.

The dawning horror on his face, as he had never heard a Brummie accent before.

(But I must add: he was a charming, nice and polite chap all the same.)

Vince Cable has done an interview.

www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/07/vince-cable-theresa-may-s-tory-conference-speech-could-have-been-taken-out-mein
Vince Cable: Theresa May’s Tory conference speech “could have been taken out of Mein Kampf”

These two paragraphs are the ones that are going to come back to haunt him:

Yet many Lib Dems say that it’s time for a younger, fresher face. There was widespread disappointment that Jo Swinson, who could have been their first female leader, didn’t stand. Cable praises Swinson, who will be his deputy, but he insists that he is “not standing as a caretaker”.

“Gender isn’t an issue any more, rightly so,” he adds. “Thanks to Obama, race isn’t really an issue any more – at least, we hope not. And age shouldn’t be, either. It should be who you are and what you have to say.”

Amazing. Steven Baker on Daily Politics and gets as easy a ride as you could imagine. Got his soap box out and complained about the EU. He is a Brexit minister. Where were the questions about what their solutions were to the question of trade, traffic at the borders, people's rights and the Irish border? Just for starters.

No where. He just went on about the EU. How the EU was an institution of economic nationalism. It is a trade bloc. A supranational body. Most countries are in some sort of bloc now. When you are dealing with the billion people states, China and India, you need a big voice. They went on about Junker having his hissy fit at the Parliament yesterday as an existential crisis. A lot of MEP's are on holiday already and Junker will be retiring in a couple of years. Started going on about the Eurozone too. UK aren't in the Eurozone. They are obsessed with the EU. They want to leave, are leaving, so why aren't they talking about their plans? Why aren't they asked about their plans for the country they are taking out and what it will be like? Yet all they can talk about is the EU and how evil it is.

I'll tell you why. They have nothing to offer. Nothing. And I hope they get the full glare of the spotlight and can't hide from the consequences of what they pushed for. Unfortunately, they won't be the ones to suffer the most, though.

imo, the LDems would have done better to look to the future with Jo Swinson as an energetic young leader and Cable providing experienced support as her deputy.

However, looks like both Labour and LDems will have very elderly leaders if the next GE is 2017-2019 GE (even more so if this Parliament lasts the full 5 years, but that still looks unlikely)

The Tories might well skip the damaged generation of DD, Bojo, Gove < shudders at Gove as PM > etc and go for a younger leader like Moggy.

• he might be a surprisingly effective choice for them.

Sounds grim, Caiilleach
It's usually a good idea not to insult people when you want them to give you a good deal.

However, the govt have a serious problem now they seem to have given up the cake dream:
they can't decided what will replace it.

They may have decided to insult the EU - just because they can't decide what to negotiate with them

"We've invoked A50, but we can't decide what to do now - it's your fault !"

Yes, we've also invoked toddler tantrum mode

Howabout - dh and I both commented this morning that BBC Scotland news seemed to be positively gleeful that "the figures to be announced today are expected to show that Scotland is going into recession".

They must have been so disappointed when the actual figures showed GDP growth of 0.8% over three months - 4 times the UK (England?) growth.

The age profile/split for the Brexit referendum is interesting. It makes me really angry. There was much heavier support in the older age groups - people who will not have to live with the effing consequences for the next 40 or 50 years, whose kids will have fewer opportunities and a worse standard of living whilst they enjoy their triple lock pensions & pull up the ladder behind them. It's just awful. I feel so sad for my kids.