Westministenders: No Brexit is Better than a Bad Brexit

[RedToothBrush]

Happy Anniversary!!!

These Threads are officially 1 year old today.

I don't know who started the very first thread, but it was about how Cameron quitting had handed the Boris a poison chalice because he had to be the one to trigger a50 as Cameron walked away without having done it.

Of course Boris didn't become PM, and we found out that triggering a50 and Brexit were even more complex than even the majority of the most informed thought it would be.

A year on we have a minority government, a zombie prime minister, a government who don't really know what the concept of democracy, millions of EU citizens (who include British nationals) who face an uncertain future, the fear of the cliff edge, a huge scandal over inequality and Jeremy Corbyn appearing on the Pyramid Stage at Glastonbury within the hour.

I don't like feeling cross on a Sunday, but seeing a link to this made me fume.
'The myth of austerity means that the Left is howling for an end to cuts that never went far enough.'

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-4634536/amp/PETER-OBORNE-myth-austerity.html

I gave up reading Peter Oborne's diatribe. When he voluntarily tries to live on the minimum wage for an indefinite period, or even, less challenging, attempts to live on the average wage (c. £25000 p.a.) for a year, then he will be worth listening to. He can give us chapter and verse as to how he managed. Until then, he would be better off shutting up.

If austerity is So Wonderful, why didn't the Tories get their landslide?

RedPeppers "Finding a job for me and DH though... that's an entirely different matter when DH doesn't speak french and the job I'm doing isn't regulated the same way in France "

But an EU passport entitles you to live and work anywhere in the EU, and there are several countries where business (in many sectors) is conducted almost entirely in English. It may not be easy for all, but for many highly-skilled EU citizens moving is the obvious choice now, rather than waiting two years to see how things pan out. Where I am there is now a leaving party practically every week (these are academics / science research people).

Peregrina I totally agree. Sadly millions of people read and believe this guff, even though it's not in their own interests.

Looking back at events a year ago, I remembered this moment when Cameron told Corbyn, in a nasty tone, to GO. How times change...

m.youtube.com/watch?v=zLuvrC0KWDQ

Osborne disgusts me the same as Cameron disgusts me. Etonions who have no idea of the real world. But karma is great and I can wait,...........

.......like I'm waiting to get out of hospital and home (hopefully in the next day or two).

I'm not entirely convinced there will be a labour landslide in another election, I think for every new labour voter there will be a Tory voter who abstained in the last election when labour weren't perceived as a threat and will now want to actively stop Corbyn getting in. I think we'll end up with a rerun of the last election, with most of the countryside staying blue and the cities going red. Maybe the odd gain here or there but no great majority on either side.

RedPeppers - do you and your DC not qualify for a family visa through your DH?

More generally, perhaps where we went a bit wrong with the Freedom of Movement directives is that is commonly understood to mean "anyone can live anywhere they want" when that's just not true (EU citizens need to be employed or studying, they need to be self-sufficient and with health insurance). I don't think that this has ever been properly enforced anywhere in the wider system (GPs registering people as NHS patients who were not eligible, for example) whilst even when there was a brief scandal about abuse of the system (anyone else remember the one-legged roof tilers from Romania?) there has been limited effort made to communicate the requirements to individuals or the media

Matthew Parris in The Times. I can't get past the paywall, but I imagine he's saying that Soft Brexit isn't worth it as it means a 'Calamitous loss of sovereignty.' So the choice is Hard Brexit or turning back. IIRC he was a Leaver. He's mentioning 'turning back'. Interesting.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/our-choice-is-hard-brexit-or-turning-back-cnhgplkhs

I think it depends on the reason for the election bolshy. Noboy wants another election right now. If people see the election as being caused by Tory incompetence then they will be punished for it. Either through people swapping to labour or by conservatives staying at home.

I think it would depend on the party leader and the campaign, big. The last campaign was disastrous, I think the tories would go to great lengths to avoid a fiasco like that again. The long and short of it is, I do not think that Corbyn will win over many Tory voters and that's what he will need to do to win a majority. So even if lots of Tory voters stay home, I still think labour would scrape a majority at best.

Howabout Why on earth would Labour need to backtrack on anti-austerity, if they switch to Remain ?
Most of the EU regards the low tax, low reg, low benefit plans of the Tories with disgust and would welcome Labour policies, which are regarded as very ordinary, respectable policies for a party of the left.

Most Labour MPs, members and voters are Remainers, so I don't see why the Leave minority always has to take priority.

I would hope that Labour keep to their promise of prioritizing jobs and the economy before immigration

I don't expect them to have Remain as mainstream policy, but just be prepared to for that as an emergency fallback if the Tories have run down the A50 clock and the alternative is a cliff edge for the economy.

Mainstream for now should be EEA / EFTA Brexit, because that is the only deal that can be done in time that would cause the least economic harm.
If need be, it could be just a transition phase, or have a referendum to decide whether to ho further after the UK is able to replace all the current trade deals it shares as part of the EU.

There really is a choice between
accepting FOM - but applying the same constraints as other countries do -
or rejecting it and having a WTO Brexit cause far larger job losses than any EU immigration.

Also, the Ultras WTO Brexit envisages UK workers competing for their jobs with workers in China and India, at least for several years until the UK obtains all the trade deals it needs.
That will absolutely hammer UK wages

Are British people (post Brexit) really going to accept a situation where their rights are less than their EU counterparts living in the same country?

One cohort can live and work anywhere within the EU, the other cannot.

Maybe I have missed something, thanks if someone puts me right.

Matthew Parris is a Remainer (he's one of the few reasonable Tories left, IMO). His article strongly hints that it would be more sensible to stay in.

I think plenty of British people either never understood the rights conferred upon their status as EU "citizens" or did not value those additional rights.

That's the only explanation I can come up with to explain how anyone could have possibly interpreted the UK's offer to EU citizens as "generous". At the same time, if this holds true then I guess everyone who voted Leave won't be that arsed to go without those rights. Of course, to those who supported Remain, it's a kick in the teeth...but I very much doubt it would lead to Remainers begrudging EU citizens the maintenance of their existing rights.

Oh yes, I remember Cameron telling Corbyn to go. Which of them is history now?

Peregrina - David who?

Though we should never let his responsibility for this mess be forgotten, though almost certainly history will chalk it up as a May policy

soda - Brit cits already have fewer rights than EU citizens living in the UK in relation to family reunification.

If I am British and want my Australian husband to come and live in the UK with me there is an expensive visa application process to go through involving quite high levels of income and savings.

If I am a German living in the UK and want my Australian husband to come over, I don't have to meet any salary requirements and the application fee is limited to costs only, because I'm exercising my Treaty rights

I know

@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
LAB: 46%
CON: 41%

OlennasWimple on brit rights, thanks for posting it.

labour's highest ratings in a decade, apparently ^

Hope that rights for citizens is near the top of the constitutional shopping list.

(Sunday Times paywall) DD's great game - Divide and conquer

< the govt keep trying this tactic , without success >

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/a-year-of-living-dangerously-brexit-prime-minister-theresa-may-and-the-rise-of-jeremy-corbyn-ww023x7wr?CMP=TNLEmail1189188_1993440

David Davis is drafting a "divide and rule" strategy to shatter the consensus which has so far prevailed among the EU's 27 other leaders, and buy Britian crucial allies in Brexit talks.

DD will try to split member states by offering sweeteners to individual countries or blocs.

One plan under discussion is for Britain to help pay for ­refugees in eastern Europe, though he is still developing a vast database of all leaders' domestic political goals.

DD will try to split member states
They just seem to be channelling their 'inner nasty', or 'obvious stupid' in DD's case.

Olennas.

Are British people not allowed to exercise Treaty rights? I may have misunderstood you but can you tell me what Treaty you are referring to? Is there an opt out for Britain or what.

Thanks.

I am baffled too.....

As a UK citizen living in Germany, currently with unlimited right to remain, I could bring in a non-EU non-earning spouse who would also be able to remain.
Same if I lived in any E27 country

However, if I returned to the UK after Brexit, that (mythical !) spouse would not be able to come with me under May's proposals

soda That's the whole reason why May is trying to reduce current rights for E27 expats after Brexit:
It highlights the rights that successive govts, not just Tory, have removed, to satisfy the public fear of immigration.
The govt always wants to harmonize rights downwards to the lowest common denominator.

All the E27 countries I know allow their own citizens to have the same rights in their own country as other EU citizens, e.g. bringing in a non-EU spouse

However, in the UK the natives have fewer rights wrt bringing in a non-EU spouse than the EU rules give to E27 citizens living in the UK

Embarrassing, isn't it ?