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Brexit

Westministenders: The bookends to a year of political chaos. Just how far have we come?

992 replies

RedToothBrush · 16/06/2017 18:50

The 15th June 2016.

The Thames was filled with a flotilla of boats in a publicity stunt for the Leave campaign to draw attention to fisheries. Nigel Farage and Kate Hoey in their heads thought they were Leonardo and Kate, but the moment was rather more titanic in nature and could not have been more Alan Partridge if they had tried. Coming up behind was Bob Gedolf in a shameful and cringeworthy display of swearing and abuse that really didn’t help the Remain camp in anyway. Largely unnoticed was a small boat with a family following it all unfold…

The next day things went from fiasco to horror.

Farage unveiled the Dog Whistle Poster and Jo Cox was murdered. And the UK seemed set on its course for 7 days later when the world was turned upside down by the referendum itself.

14th June 2017.

Fast forward 365 days later and another tragedy unfolded. This time of a very different nature but with no less political significance.
Grenfell.

A moment of national shame. A symbol of so many things that had come to pass in the previous twelve months.

The election just the previous week had changed the direction of travel we seemed to be headed and left the Prime Minister exposed and looking wildly out of touch. The Maybot was given one more chance.

And the Maybot seems to be failing the test of her party who had the grace to grant her a second chance.

The Queen dressed in the same shade of blue, May delivered her ‘victory speech’ in, ignored the security threat and visited the ranks of the poor and the forgotten. A deliberate message to May not to forget who she serves? A Queen who feels aggrieved and angry by May’s behaviour? Who knows.

As for Brexit. The government looks lost. Adrift. The ‘Fight of the Summer’ over the EU’s plan for talks sounds out the window despite the denials from the Brexit Department. Hard Brexit is still on the cards. Apparently. But what does anyone believe now? May’s and the Brexiteers domination of the agenda is shattered, its power starting to be questioned.

What next?

This evening the anger is building.

Who knows, what will happen. Some of it might be predictable, but the future is far from certain and we have definitely entered a new era. We just don’t know who will lead it, or what its ambition or what the end goal now is.

What we do know, more acutely than ever is that we are all human and the wise words of Jo Cox about having ‘More in Common’ ring though ever more strongly.

Once again we feel ‘on the brink’.

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DividedKingdom · 18/06/2017 19:48

twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/876456106352140292

Good monologue on TMs cling to power by Frankie Boyle (contains video link). He apparently likes her even less than I do...quite an accomplishment!

citroenpresse · 18/06/2017 19:48

Yet another data fail re number of illegal immigrants according to The Migration Observatory at University of Oxford earlier this year: “working out who is breaking the rules and who isn’t involves knowing what all [people who enter the UK] are doing, which isn’t recorded in a systematic way.”

May's role as Home Secretary not escaping censure. Yet more legal battles she lost.

www.newstatesman.com/2017/02/how-many-illegal-immigrants-are-uk

woman12345 · 18/06/2017 19:56

@DavidLammy
#GrenfellTower contractors are removing details from their websites? What else are they deleting? Trust is very low

twitter.com/DavidLammy/status/876504037973274624

woman12345 · 18/06/2017 19:59

"You get other major events and you get a rolling commentary...... what are the MET up to...........what evidence is being deleted". Lammy

Interviewer: "Are you making tensions worse?"

RedToothBrush · 18/06/2017 20:00

People without phones. People distressed and with family. People not on the 'right' list. Out of date information from the council. People who are safe but others are not aware of.

All sorts of reasons.

The lack of the coordinated official response is part of the problem. The police don't have an obligation to update the community if they manage to account for someone.

The police are doing things by the book. If they have evidence of someone being in the build at the time of the fire then they can be more confident of their status. For example people on the phone to the emergency services and who the firefighters were trying to locate in the build from that information.

Others might be known residents in the building but there is no evidence they were definitely there at the time of the fire that the police can be confident in.

One of the crucial things here is how they will declare people dead and issue death certificates, particularly in the potential absence of bodies. They will have to build a case of evidence for a court to rule people are dead.

The police can't just go off no evidence to do that at this stage.

They may also be going first with people who are effectively next of kin and therefore the first point of contact for anyone missing. If whole families have gone, then the only people able to report them are neighbours. That might mean information is less reliable.

If you lost your house, the first people you would contact is most likely family. If they were elsewhere in the city, would your neighbours necessarily know this.

Again the police have to make certain presumptions about that as well. And police might be better able to trace these people too.

People are also trying to work things out by deducting from the number of people in the building, assuming that people have checked in, in some way. There is no guarantee that they have. Some people might not think they are listed amongst the missing because they are with family. Then there is potential language barriers.

There was a family that was thought to be missing and had been reported missing by someone (not a relative) who have apparently turned up.

I do think the number of dead will go up. There are about 70 named individuals circulating in the press. The Press Association has said it thinks about 100.

But at the moment, I don't think there is anything reliable out there. The media have been reporting the same people as living on totally different floors depending on which source you read. And then other press report what another has already reported. Its very much Chinese whispers.

The police have to be reliable in what they say. They can not give inaccurate information. If its slow, then it reflects how complex it is. But that is not being well conveyed to locals - a symptom of the Council's enormous cock up and the lack of trust in authority.

As it stands the BBC have had someone on saying that the Civil Contingency Act may have been breached by the council. The fact that Ealing Council and the Red Cross have been drafted in to replace RBKC would also tend to support the idea that they have failed in their duty to plan for emergency. Even Mr Paget-Brown the leader of the council saying he though their response was effective is consistent with that: if he says differently it could be an admission of breaking the law...

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woman12345 · 18/06/2017 20:03

"If these kids had blonde hair and blue eyes, they would not be dead. Why has there not been a minute's silence for them?"
twitter.com/rimsha100100/status/876488351368577029

RedToothBrush · 18/06/2017 20:10

Why has there not been a minute's silence for them?"

There is one planned next week. The Queen had one yesterday.

But yeah, not being 'blonde and blue eyed' contributed to this. Not least by the mere fact that black and Asian children are far more likely to live above the 7th floor because they end up lower on the social housing 'pecking order' so to speak.

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woman12345 · 18/06/2017 20:11

I understand that protocol has to be kept red , but what so many witnesses and firemen are saying conflicts with what little has been said so far.

The MET must have a unit which could be giving more regular updates, even that might help re gain trust.

Jocelyn Maugham has offered free legal support, bless him.

RedToothBrush · 18/06/2017 20:46

Police just released an update woman12345

Press Association‏*@PA*
#Breaking Investigations at Grenfell Tower have led police to believe the "number of people missing has risen from yesterday's figure of 58"

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woman12345 · 18/06/2017 20:52

Thank you red

RhythmAndStealth · 18/06/2017 20:53

What would we see from a Tory Brecht Artisan Jam?

"Mother Coward and Her Children" perhaps
or
"The Two Party Opera" featuring guest appearances form the DUP.

Wink
woman12345 · 18/06/2017 20:54

From that statement, it is very difficult for them to give exact numbers. Poor police, fire crew and families.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2017 20:58

117 I think the party machine / 1922 Committee would like to avoid a contest - that would take months, futher diminishing May's / the govt's remaining authority in the meantime.
Also, really no more time to waste wrt Brexit.

They would prefer instead that agreement coalesce around a single candidate whom most could tolerate, who is then presented to the Party Conference for Approval

The problem is whom and getting everyone to agree, especially the other candidates:

Boris is Marmite and some previous remarks on fire cuts may turn toxic
Hammond would be opposed by the large Brexit wing, but the most knowledgeable and sane
Rudd - has a very marginal seat
Ruth - impractical to make an MP and is needed to boost Tory Scottish seats
Davies - currently still hard Brexit - maybe if he finally realises it won't work and turns to EEA / EFTA
Javid - Tory party members and target voters may not want a Muslim leader
Gove - hated and dangerous to all around him
Leadsom - still Loathsome
IDS - even more Loathsome and he failed as leader before
Patel - you're joking

Someone new from younger generation ?

ArleneFostersNegotiatingFace · 18/06/2017 21:01

The police and fire crews are under so much more pressure because of the council messing up, again.

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2017 21:06

Kensington council may have seriously failed to perform that statutory duty after a disaster
They've basically had a chunk of their responsibility transferred by a Tory govt to a Labour council

I cannot remember anything like this ever happening before in the Uk

Could be some even worse failings we don't yet know about, or some key members could now be under serious investigation.
Or just such an incompetent disfunctional council that the govt saw no other way of limiting damage and finally providing adequate official help

It's clearly not an insurmountable task, because Ealing have got right on track

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2017 21:08

The Tory Party, especially MPs, may bitterly oppose being the chew toy of the relatively tiny but Dangerously Unhinged Party

woman12345 · 18/06/2017 21:08

Absolutely, Arlene they are heroes. Fire crews applauded by locals:
twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/876391752856481792

RedToothBrush · 18/06/2017 21:25

www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/86779/iain-duncan-smith-savages-tory
Iain Duncan Smith savages Tory MPs with 'big mouths and small brains'

Who ARE you talking about IDS????

On a COMPLETELY unrelated note, is anyone else watching Boris V Treeza on BBC2?

Boris had 'curry nights' to get to know Tory MPs in order to butter them up for a leadership bid.

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mathanxiety · 18/06/2017 21:29

citroenpresse Sun 18-Jun-17 15:12:43
Isn't the right to Irish citizenship already based on 'the island of Ireland''? NI citizens can already identify 'solely' as Irish unless Ireland plans to change its citizenship rules. Have I misunderstood?

Only under the GFA, as far as I understand, can citizens of NI be 'Irish', hold an Irish passport, and still be counted as full citizens of NI at the same time. It is not a matter of Irish rules on citizenship.

The GFA depends for its existence and enforceability on membership of the EU on the part of the UK, Ireland and NI.

woman12345 · 18/06/2017 21:30

Is IDS he having a larf?
"We don't need silly people in the Conservative party"

Boris and Treeza's real life is more fictional than I can bear. Is it funny?

BiglyBadgers · 18/06/2017 21:31

They've basically had a chunk of their responsibility transferred by a Tory govt to a Labour council
I cannot remember anything like this ever happening before in the Uk

Councils can and do have their services transferred to other councils if they are seen to be failing. For example after Baby P Hampshire County Council took on children's services in Haringey for a time. You are right though, that this time it is particularly high profile and swift. It is also politically more pointed straight after an election, when it is a labour council taking over from a Tory one.

Artisanjam · 18/06/2017 21:33

Grinrhythm. Mother Coward I think. It's a very well educated autocorrect!!

woman12345 · 18/06/2017 21:36

Bernie gets solace from "you look into the abyss and it grins back at with you with a short-cropped grey beard and very Marxist ideology" (IDS's words) Grin despite IDS's big brain he's just had a metaphor fail.

www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/opinion/bernie-sanders-how-democrats-can-stop-losing-elections.html?smid=fb-share&_r=0

ArleneFostersNegotiatingFace · 18/06/2017 21:51

Red I heard them talking about this on Front Row. I thought it might be out of date and/or cringe. How is it?

BigChocFrenzy · 18/06/2017 21:53

citroen's Guardian link sums up the step change in attitudes that Grenfell caused, fairly or not, wrt the Tories.

"Inevitably, and rightly, all politics is still refracted through the bleak lens of the Grenfell Tower horror.
As thrown as senior Tories were by the election result, the panic in their voices is now of a different order.

There is a gulf between on the one hand, political miscalculation and a bad campaign, and on the other, a national tragedy that captures with ghastly clarity a much broader sense of grief, social division and unheeded anger.

Wiser Tories – and they are greater in number than you might suppose – understand that
the Grenfell tragedy represents a much more serious challenge than the advance of Jeremy Corbyn."

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