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Brexit

Westministenders: The Zombie PM

999 replies

RedToothBrush · 11/06/2017 22:19

Back from the dead, May carries on whilst the vultures circle.

She had tried to out smart her rivals by running of to the palace to tell the queen she could form a government before they could act.

Definitely she stood and pretended nothing had changed. Except everything had. The wrath of her party was unleashed and there was open revolt. She has been summoned to appear before men in grey suits tomorrow at 5pm to hear their verdict.

How do she decide to make amends and reach out to moderate Tories? By sleeping with the DUP. And appointing Gove to her Cabinet.

How long will this last? How long can it last?

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MangoSplit · 13/06/2017 06:57

The thing I don't really understand is why people are talking about a new centre party that is pro Remain (or soft Brexit) when one already exists. Why don't they just defect to the Lib Dems?

woman12345 · 13/06/2017 07:05

Theresa: The Movie.

A docudrama depicting Theresa May's rise to power last year is to air on BBC Two on Sunday as the fallout continues from the general election
.
Theresa vs Boris: How May Became PM was commissioned before Mrs May called the snap election

It focuses on the 20 days between the Brexit vote and Mrs May becoming Conservative leader and prime minister.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40249614

All that 'post landslide' media look a bit daft now.

It'll do no harm to labour's polling.

HesterThrale · 13/06/2017 07:06

I wonder when the Gov petitions site will reopen? There must be plenty of petitions waiting to happen.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions?state=open

woman12345 · 13/06/2017 07:15

With no DUP deal, no queen's speech, I'm not sure if there is an elected executive or legislature in place at the moment Hester, nearly 5 days after the election.

Unwritten constitution should be the first to go when the tories are removed.

I'm not surprised EU27 are looking on in horror.

everthibkyouvebeenconned · 13/06/2017 07:21

I was thinking about timings again. There really isn't much of a window for an election this year

Assuming May will step down over the summer due to 'ill health' allowing everyone an easy get out the new leader will be officially annpinted September ready October at conference. Lib and Lab also have conference in September...and the budget is November

So only chance this year is 12 19 or 26 October. Won't do November or December as too dark to get the pensioners out plus one flu epidemic and the Tories are fucked

After that the next possible is late Feb post flu season..not good if we've had a hard miserable winter.

WeakAndUnstable · 13/06/2017 07:24

Once upon a time....whilst I was living in the Netherlands, the entire sitting government walked out (v different circumstances). Around 2002.

ElenaGreco123 · 13/06/2017 07:26

Suicidal sensibles in the Daily Mail?! Confused They are rattled.

HashiAsLarry · 13/06/2017 07:41

Arf woman with your now is not the time type comment Grin

Press definitely rattled. Especially as cross party talks aren't uncommon anyway. Most MPs are good friends with the other side in real life, and the back room shuffling is often what gets bills through.

lalalonglegs · 13/06/2017 07:43

Ha ha at DM trying to turn "sensible" into an insult. Tomorrow's headline should be: "Let's Get Behind May and her Cabinet Nihilists."

HashiAsLarry · 13/06/2017 07:46

Actually woman my pre caffeine state read that wrong. Thought you were replying to the why not move to lib dem comment. Blush

BigChocFrenzy · 13/06/2017 07:55

This probably gives us a preview of the 2017 agreement:
increased spending on armed forces, obviously on NI too, examining NI corporation tax & other taxes.

Maybe a bit more NI porkbarrel - because they have May over a barrel now.

(Telegraph paywall) Exclusive: Conservatives and DUP drew up secret co-operation deal after 2015 generalelection

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/12/exclusive-conservatives-dup-drew-secret-co-operation-deal-2015/

"Representatives of David Cameron and George Osborne held secret talks with senior DUP figures and drew up a formal “draft agreement” for the DUP to support the Tory Government after the narrow election victory in 2015."

"Conservative sources said that while the deal was never formally agreed it demonstrated how the two parties have a long history of working together closely.

A copy of the draft agreement – marked “official – sensitive” and seen by The Daily Telegraph – was hammered out over several days.

It set out a number of ways in which the British Government would offer financial support to Northern Ireland as the price for any support.

Mark Harper, the-then Chief Whip, Oliver Letwin, the-then Minister for Government Policy and Lord Llewellyn of Steep, who as Ed Llewllyn was Mr Cameron’s then-chief of staff, negotiated the deal for the Government.

The agreement said: “The DUP will support the Government in any no confidence motion for as long as the Statement of Principles is in force.

“With the exceptions listed below, DUP MPs will vote with the Government on all other matters.”
The DUP agreed that “it decides, case by case, on welfare reforms, matters relating exclusively to Northern Ireland, and matters relating to the devolution of powers to and the structure of government in Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales.”

"On military spending, the agreement said: “The DUP and the Conservative Party agree that the UK’s standing in the world is of paramount significance.

“The DUP will accordingly support the Government’s determination to maintain the scope and reach of our diplomatic effort, the scale and effectiveness of our international aid programme (including in relation to conflict resolution and stabilisation) and the strength of our national defence.

“The Government will maintain the current size of the regular armed services, increase the reserves to 30,000 and maintain the real value of the £163billion capital defence equipment programme,
with the ambition of holding defence sending (including spending on cyber and counter-terrorism) at 2 per cent of GDP.”

In return “for the support provided by the DUP” the Government agreed to “examine seriously … adjustments to the Corporate Tax regime in Northern Ireland” and “discuss with the DUP other tax changes that could encourage economic growth in Northern Ireland”.

"Ministers said yesterday that the Queen’s Speech could be delayed from Monday June 19 to allow for more time for the two sides to agree the details of the legislative programme."

The Government also agreed to “enhance” foreign office support for foreign direct investment into Northern Ireland and
“ensure that Northern Ireland can receive a fair share both of national government contracts and of infrastructure investments”.

The Tories said they would “work with the DUP to maintain Northern Ireland’s 100 per cent regional aid status,
to reduce electricity costs in Northern Ireland
and to ensure that both Innovate UK and the British Business Bank focus more heavily on Northern Ireland”.

The deal to be unveiled on Tuesday by Theresa May and Arlene Foster will be “broadbrush” and a “broad outline of principles”, sources said,
to allow for a more detailed legislative programme to be hammered out in coming days.

The DUP is understood to have told Tory ministers that the Government must guarantee the 2 per cent of GDP spent on defence does not include non-military spending.

One source said the DUP was pushing for “a real two per cent” worth of spending on defence from the Tory Government.
< so that's the delay - May being forced into either tax increase (unlikely) or more cuts elsewhere (rUK, welfare) >

The letter says “Government boasts of spending 2 per cent of GDP on defence are widely criticised as an accounting deception.

< I bet this truth is omitted before 2017 publication ! >

Most analysts now agree core defence expenditure for hard military power is well below 2 per cent.”

Westministenders: The Zombie PM
BigChocFrenzy · 13/06/2017 07:58

Since Cameron kindly bequeathed May this detailed draft document,
this long delay suggests: either May disagrees - the amount of spending ? - or the DUP have come back for a second helping of goodies, now that May is desperate.

HashiAsLarry · 13/06/2017 07:59

Wrt to the why not defect to the lib dems, I think times have changed so dramatically that the best solution would be to create a new party/movement. Whether this would subsume the lib dems I don't know, or whether they could carry on existing but like the greens.

There's too much false association with the rosettes now.
The Tories are the party of decent economics, yet they've just run an uncounted manifesto and we're quite happy to throw us off the cliff into economic ruin - people still said they best for the economy, and any grabs for power are fine because they're the Tories and have some sort of divine right to rule.
Labour are crap for the economy, despite running a costed manifesto that was largely passed by financial institutions as ok also long as you ignore the brexit black hole (also in Tories) - labour are to be maligned if they borrow money, even though the Tories do this too.

The libs are not allowed to make any step wrong, in thought or compromise despite other parties doing this and being allowed too frivolously.
The greens are untested and leftie so just shouldn't be trusted at all.
Etc etc.

A new party with proven MPs would go a long way to break associations.

Arborea · 13/06/2017 08:00

Unwritten constitution should be the first to go when the tories are removed.

Be careful what you wish for: it's only going to be possible to do this with cross party support and would be the perfect excuse for a British Bill of Rights, which in turn could dilute the need to remain signed up to the ECHR.

BigChocFrenzy · 13/06/2017 08:05

The DUP may want guarantees ruling out a border poll, because of changed sentiment in Ni:

Lucid Talk’s May 2017 NI tracker poll showed 61% in favour of a border poll in the next 5 years, excluding DK

http://www.lucidtalk.co.uk/images/News/LTMay17TrackerPollResultsPoll2-GeneralReport.pdf#page=99_

That’s a big switch from September, with the figures nearly reversed:

Yes 51% (+12)
No 39% (-13)
Not sure 10% (+2)

AND nearly all the movement apparently comes from Protestants moving in favour.

everthibkyouvebeenconned · 13/06/2017 08:06

The DUP can ask for chocolate turds if it wants....a border poll will happen one day

BigChocFrenzy · 13/06/2017 08:07

oops, I meant 61% not opposed to border poll !
So the hard core NEVER, NEVER is only 39%

RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:08

Why don't they just defect to the Lib Dems?

Political baggage. Issue of leadership. Things like who has priority on candidate list in constituencies (existing LDs effectively having first dibs), structure of party, history of party, personal higher up in party. Desire to form fresh purpose and ideology.

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RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:15

Unwritten constitution should be the first to go when the tories are removed.

Fuck no. By all means have 'messy' clarifications of what we have. We have a written constitution. It's just one that has evolved and is in lots of different parts of law. No more huge scale messing with constitutional law. It's held up pretty well over the last year and a darnsite better than our friends who do have a written constitution and a president who ignores it. Y

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BigChocFrenzy · 13/06/2017 08:17

Good news for some posters ? Smile

(Times paywall) Austerity is over, May tells Tories

"Theresa May is poised to bring to a close seven years of austerity after Tory MPs warned that they would refuse to vote for further cuts."

"Sources said that she accepted that voters’ patience with austerity was at an end after Boris Johnson, David Davis and a series of Tory MPs told her that she had misjudged the public mood."

"Gavin Barwell, Mrs May’s new chief of staff, told the BBC that austerity had repelled voters as he explained the loss of his Croydon Central seat."

"The negotiations allow Mrs May to ditch or change campaign pledges and senior Tories said that
cuts to school budgets must now be scrapped
She must also find billions for social care without raiding pensioner benefits."

RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:20

Anita Baker @ antiatheowl
Don't forget the EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive coming into effect in 2019. They want out and in a hurry and not for "national interest".

ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/company-tax/anti-tax-avoidance-package/anti-tax-avoidance-directive_en
Effective 1st Jan 2019

What the fuck is Corbyn playing at?

Seriously is he just ignorant of this?

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RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:22

May needs a magic windfall from somewhere. Perhaps the LDs should offer her their drugs one...

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RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:25

David Allen Green revelation:

(fwiw, my Eurosceptic credentials include having once been Bill Cash's research assistant, alongside Dan Hannan.)

That's like gold star level Euroscepticism!

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RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:29

www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-russian-diplomat-link-3919887
David Cameron and the Russian diplomat link to Vladimir Putin spies

Sergey Nalobin has joined mega-rich Tory donors hobnobbing with the PM and Cabinet ministers at glittering party fundraisers, we can reveal

From July 2014

It just keeps coming doesn't it?

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RedToothBrush · 13/06/2017 08:39

Ian Dunt @ iandunt
Michael Gove now talking about maximum possible consensus on Brexit.
This is a very significant change.

Disappointed optimist @ rbp77
Yeah but:
Michael Gove

You can almost see him plotting to try and make consensus as difficult as possible and as narrow as possible, on his terms involving forcing us over the a50 deadline without a deal.

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