Westministenders: Strong and Stable Theresa Date with Destiny

[RedToothBrush]

WELLLLL

Its just before 2.00am.

So far its the YouGov model all the way. Still a long way to go but, the Cons are not getting the top of their target list and Labour are doing very well in seats they just 'shouldn't be'.

Corbyn is now favourite to take the poison chalice of Brexit, but they may not be the largest party yet.

This is looking right now like 1974 not 1983.

May's potted regardless. I look forward to her resignation speech. Its still entirely possible that our next government is a Tory Minority under another leader.

The LDs are having a rough night so far. They are loosing deposits all over the place as they are squeezed out. But they still might hold the balance of power yet. Though they are pledged not to go into coalition.

Another election in the autumn? Brexit delayed and going soft and squishy?

But if they aren't going to engage in Westminster ...

It's not Westminster where this is going to cause the issue, it is Stormont. Sinn Fein can now attack any thing that does not go there way in the talks as evidence that the UK government is siding with the DUP in order to shore up their conservative majority.

It's not Westminster where this is going to cause the issue, it is Stormont. Sinn Fein can now attack any thing that does not go there way in the talks as evidence that the UK government is siding with the DUP in order to shore up their conservative majority.

Which might breech the Good Friday Agreement. I've just seen a commentator eluding to this.

I don't know why people are saying they can't get rid of May, it seems blatantly obvious to me that she won't survive long, particularly with a DUP coalition.

The knives are out.

Davidson's success in Scotland must have given her power, that is exactly what George Osbourne said last night. in fact he said it would make her the most powerful politician in the Conservative Party, though perhaps that should have been with the caveat IF it was a sane and sensible party...

If I had to choose a brand of Conservatism (in much the same way I had to choose how to be executed), then I prefer GO/DC to Theresa May any day of any week.

One consistent undertow to the past year has been the danger of writing off Gideon and his brand of Toryism. In hindsight his "stepping out" of politics seems remarkably opportune. He can watch from afar as the Tory MPs slog it out. He has no vote to wield, so while he can't actually help anyone, he can also keep his hands clean while Rome burns.

The longer the silence goes on, the more I can hear the whispers "You broke it, you own it."

Shades (no doubt deliberate) of "Government of National Unity", to create subliminally an image of a country at war.

I would argue that we have been in a sort of civil war - not with guns but certainly there are many families not speaking to each other over Brexit.

Having said that, the Government of National Unity was productive and began to lay the foundations of the welfare state, of which we have all been beneficiaries.

They are publicly humiliating her. She has no authority. How is this even tenable?

It's not. It is insane. Can you imagine her at PMQs? Her own side openly despise her now, it will be beyond humiliating. Her judgement will never be trusted again. I just can't believe that Tories will let her run for long as it will start to make them all look weak. I think they are just scrabbling to work out a successor and then will chuck her quick as.

Maybe May is drawing inspiration from Corbyn in not ceding to pressure from MPs to step down. After all, it didn't seem to do him any harm :)

Tory MPs going crazy about PM's chief of staff, Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy. Cabinet source saying they "destroying our party"

They are toast surely. Timothy was responsible for the social care debacle against the advice of Lyndon Crosby. I can see why Perrior resigned.

Someone needs to be the immediate patsy

Apologies if it's already been mentioned, but does the Salisbury convention still apply where you have a minority government? So would Tory manifesto promises re grammar schools, Brexit conditions, great repeal act, social care etc be protected in the HoL?

Maybe May is drawing inspiration from Corbyn in not ceding to pressure from MPs to step down. After all, it didn't seem to do him any harm

Corbyn had the overwhelming support of the labour membership, this still didn't stop the PLP trying to oust him through a second election. It was only the pressure of the membership that saved him. Does anyone think conservative members have that sort of support for May right now?

Coming back to Ruth Davidson ... one thing I did think she expressed very well last night was to say that we were in a "Snowglobe" era of politics, where IndyRef, GE2015, Brexit, GE2017 had shaken peoples allegiances up in the air, and we're not sure where they are landing yet

Seemed quite a good analogy.

There is a looming possibility that we could end up with a parliament in Westminster that cannot deliver Brexit, even if it admits it's what the country wanted back in 2016.

All of which (bearing in mind this thread title) comes back to the original issue of Brexit, and the very clear warnings before we had the referendum that the complexity of the task might prove insurmountable. Are we starting to see this being fixed into the landscape ?

You can have Brexit, but no Tory majority. If you want a Tory majority, dump Brexit.

OR

You can have Brexit, but no Labour majority. If you want a Labour majority, dump Brexit.

if this were to be the case, do we have any rocket scientists who can try to extrapolate what the logical course of action might be for a party (and country) that wants a majority ???

The sort of "Government of National Unity" that May is thinking of involves us accepting without question that what she is doing is right for the countries, with the added subliminal message that we are traitors if we disagree or worse, actively oppose her.

If she was genuinely interested in national unity, she'd have done what someone suggested earlier (can't remember who it was) and create a cross-party group to deal with Brexit.

But she's not really after national unity. She's after power.

It doesn't work like that for the Tories. It is very easy to get rid of a leader they don't want...look at Mrs T

does the Salisbury convention still apply where you have a minority government?

It's hard to see how it could. Otherwise there's no point in having a majority.

Basically, the convention that the HoC has a moral authority due to a majority is - bluntly - well fucked.

Which might breech the Good Friday Agreement. I've just seen a commentator eluding to this.

While this appals me, I am glad that May can't now duck the issue of N Ireland, which she was happily doing before.

Maybe May is drawing inspiration from Corbyn in not ceding to pressure from MPs to step down. After all, it didn't seem to do him any harm

You forget that twice Corbyn has been elected by the party membership with stonking majorities. As he reminded May, she hasn't. He is also good going out campaigning, as she so woefully demonstrated, she isn't.

People say that Labour held their seats in all the marginals she visited. She also managed to lose the incumbent Tory's seat after the haranguing in Abingdon Market Place. The ex-MP did help in that in that she wasn't too bothered about representing the constituency. I will try to be fair to Nicola Blackwood - she had a mixed record, she wasn't totally useless as some are.

Where are PH BJ and DD!??

May has never been tested in a popular vote (or the electorate until now). Leadsom withdrew before that stage. May got 50% of first ballot votes of Tory MPs, then 60% in the second round. The lack of a power base within the party has always been an issue for her.

I believe that the Salisbury convention still holds, but with a dose of real politik on what is feasible to take forward.

I'm assuming that James Brokenshire will remain the NI Secretary (he is a TM ally, and she needs someone who is already up to speed on all things NI right now - as well as Brexit, there are important Stormont talks to come). I'm assuming that the delay in Cabinet announcements is some people arguing against the posts that they have or have not been offered (that's the usual reason, anyway)

I'm relatively relaxed about the clause that requires the government to be neutral in NI politics - the onus would be on SF to prove that the government had acted in breach of the legal requirement, and I can't immediately think of a circumstance where the government would act so flagrantly in favour of the DUP that this would stick. (I know this is not the same as SF using this to cause trouble)

Will they persuade Amber to go for PM?

Corybn is uninterested in the machinations of the PLP. Both Labour and Tories PLPs have been craven about wanting to hang onto their seats and stressing electability. Michael Heseltine said the Labour Party could get into power any time it wants to i.e. make that the absolute goal (as New Labour did). But Corbyn's mandate is via a form of populism outside this very rigid model. The Labour manifesto is Labour Party POLICY which is not just Corbyn. He's really proved his point but the whole Labour campaign was just more intelligent and focussed.

From BBC

Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd and Boris Johnson to continue in their ministerial positions, Downing Street confirms bbc.in/2sbKoA9

Where are PH BJ and DD!??

If I were any of them , I would be taking a nice walk somewhere quiet, with people whose company I enjoy. I might stop off for a refreshing glass of wine, or beer, and just savour a little peace and quiet, before returning home to my beloved family and losing myself in a box set that has been waiting too long. The only plan I would have for Saturday would be not to have a plan for Saturday.

I certainly would not waste my time and effort even thinking about the stupid woman who is looking increasingly distraught, as she shrieks on about stability and whatever. She had her chances, big and often. I would certainly not involve myself in her failure to get off the clue train as it stopped at every station.

Surely Ambers majority is too small for her to be leader. Imagine if we had to have another election and she lost her seat

citroen - TM's lack of popularity among the party has always been a problem for her (and there's a clear link to her reliance on Nick and Fi here too). Now she is going to find out whether she really does have any friends.

prettybird - the cross party Brexit team is my idea (I suspect others will have thought of it too, but heck, I'm claiming it on MN!)