Lets see how two of my posts, from 15th June 2016 are holding up
In response to:
I want to vote, and vote with conviction.
RedToothBrush Thu 16-Jun-16 13:41:39
I think if you are Leave its probably more clear cut.
If you are Remain I think it tends to be an on-balance argument.
Which I think is making it hard for some people as they aren't in the later camp, but they are struggling with the on-balance argument with lots of confusing information. They are not 'YAY GO EU!! WWWWOOOO!'. Its difficult to muster that excitement. In true I think its disingenuous to suggest you can be that excited about the EU.
The EU is flawed. Its a big monster. But there are big friendly monsters and big horrible monsters.
Leave is not an argument based on 'facts'. Its more of an 'outlook' based more on belief. Its stupid to try and look for them. There is no plan. There is no argument really apart from the propaganda slogan of 'Take Back Control' which in fairness is a very strong and positive one, especially when it sits next to the shitty weakness of the Remain camp's propaganda. What does it actually mean in reality though?
The truth: Not a lot. Its left deliberately open to interpretation, as that means people attach their own meaning to it - and therefore convictions and beliefs. Its to empower the person reading it. But there is little real substance behind it.
'To take back control', in life requires a detailed clear vision and strategy. Yet its nowhere to be seen, and Leave are quite happy to do this as it offers them the opportunity to promise the world (or glittering generalities as the technique is know). What how many times the phrase 'Take Back Control' is going to be repeated in the next week. Its an interesting game for Question Time Viewing!
Then there's the reality. Article 50, which is the mechanism to leave the EU, is heavily weighed against anyone leaving (its therefore not anti-UK). It puts us in a difficult position to make good on the promises of taking control, especially since there are French and German elections in the same period. Us leaving is likely to be met with hostility, even at cost to themselves, to try and prevent others leaving and getting similar 'concessions'. We will, instead of being in control, be the political football of the Germans and French. Who have no obligation to agree anything. If after two years there is no agreement, then we get thrown back into poor terms.
Then you have to consider the implications of politics domestically. I don't think there is any consensus on what the UK actually wants. Its very vague. Before we even get to the negotiation table we will have to settle this. I can't see there being much will to do this or much agreement.
Oh, and as for taking control. We'll get control of Sangatte alright. Only in Folkestone.
I might feel differently if there was a plan either within the Brexit camp or the Remain camp. Instead we have lots of competing and contradictory arguments.
If you are looking for facts over outlook, then I would go Remain. Lots of facts (of varying quality and bias and propaganda) but there are facts. Whether you choose to trust them - and their sources - is another matter. There is a definite split along these lines.
I think Remain are doing a shit campaign. They don't get it. They haven't been honest, and they have tried to scare people instead of just going with what the EU is.
On balance the EU offer us security and stability. Boring as hell but undervalued. If the EU did go tits up, then we would be sucked in regardless. Better to do it with others, in those circumstances. Its more likely to be controlled then. Movement of people is going to be a problem in or out due to a global population that is growing. We are better dealing with those problems on an international basis with people we are on good terms with rather than have just pissed off. Likewise, trying to get back tax from international corporation and tax havens - otherwise it will encourage an every man for himself mentality in the finance world which we have been chipping away at, albeit slowly. Then there's works and human rights. Deregulation will chip away at these. Its not a good thing. It seems to be fair game to talk about the EU in twenty or thirty years. I think its fair game to talk about workers and human rights in twenty or thirty years too.
Then there's this: The referendum looks set to be cut along age lines with the young wanting to stay in. If Brexit win, we loose a generation to political engagement as they feel they have not been listened to. The implications of this are wide ranging. It means few will take up the much needed call to get involved themselves locally. That means they don't get head. It means career politicians will dominate even more. I fear this perhaps more than anything.
Brexit is about trying to draw lines of division to me. Its about trying to other, and trying to use the word 'I' a lot. Rather than looking at what shared grievances we have and what we are all pissed off at, and using that to try and find solutions.
Even in terms of immigration, the them and us thing in terms of integration, requires both sides of the fence to reach out to each other. That's those who identify as White British making a positive effort as much as those coming over here and taking on British culture. Instead Brexit is driving a massive wedge in that. I'm scared some of the strength of negative feeling, so why would anyone from a none white British background feel better about it? It only adds more fuel to the fire.
Finally, there's Scotland and NI and the issues of their sovereignty and safety. I grew up fearing NI terrorism. I don't want to go back to that. I don't want to loose Scotland. I didn't want them to go last year. I still don't. I don't see how England is stronger without either NI and Scotland. I don't want to see friends who are Irish and NI and work across the border area have to make huge decisions.
I am PROUD to be British. I am starting the resent the fact that, I can not be British European and still be proud. Cultures do not disappear with the redrawing of lines on maps. Cultures flourish with trade and the bonds that brings. What makes someone proud to be Welsh? They have managed to maintain and indeed extend that in recent years, whilst still being part of the union. Ditto, Scotland and NI.
I have friends who are European and I see them as every bit as equal. The Little England nationalism is tiresome, and inaccurate anyway. I reject it.
Anyway, MY decision, is not anyone else's decision. But that's where I am. That's why I'm frustrated. I do have certain concerns but they are not going to get fixed in the way people think. Nor is it a decision from being scared.
It boils down to this to me. You can't just overthrown the government - domestic or the EU - with two fingers up, unless you have a credible alternative waiting in the wings with a credible alternative to fill the void.
Where is that? Where is that really?
I just hear a loud echoing silence to that question
and also
RedToothBrush Thu 16-Jun-16 14:51:52
BOTH sides are using quite black propaganda. I think that Leave is being a little more clever and positive in the way they are doing it.
Historically, studies tend to show that the public favour positive messages so I'm not surprised its going down better. It may well win it for them.
It is detracting from what people really have to choose between though.
I don't find that terribly democratic in approach to be honest.
To me democracy is not just about layers of civil service and our ability to vote. Its also about how politicians decide to manipulate voters. Democratic debate should rest on getting to the heart of issues and coming up with policies as potential solutions to problems so that the public can make an educated and informed decision.
Do you think that's what we are getting?
And we are all whinging about the EU? And some see Leave as some sort of saviour from this?
They were posted BEFORE the Referendum and in the minutes before Jo Cox was murdered. It was BEFORE Theresa May became PM.
I fail to see how anything I've done, nor anyone on these threads has really changed any of that. What significant event or action has made a difference? Really? I can't think of anything. The only really big development has been the election of Donald Trump.
11 months on, I think they are holding up quite well. What might happen in the next few months was there to be seen.
In terms of 'being right', why would I want to be right at the expense of myself, my country, my values and the things I believe in? Its such an odd argument. Surely I'd want to be wrong so we can all have a better future. Why harm yourself to prove a stupid point on the internet?
It doesn't have to continue this way. The UK has the power to choose its own destiny still, but it has to make some consequence decision to break from the path it has set itself on. In order to do that, it has to acknowledge the problems and obstacles it is facing rather than keep on pretending they aren't there.
We have not progressed at all. Instead of people saying 'Take Back Control', they are saying 'Strong and Stable' - for the same reasons: so people attached their own meaning to it. And the opposition are firing back with messages that aren't really anymore inspiring 'For the Many not the Few' and if you can even remember it never mind know who its for 'Changing Britain's Future'. We are in the depth of propaganda not policy or decision making. There is no real public debate on important issues. Its all about ideology.
Its no wonder that no one has really changed their minds on Brexit. No one has done anything to heal wounds or bridge divides. May's language has only been to maintain those misconceptions and hold off inevitable and unavoidable realities.
I would like this country and its leaders to start choosing an actual path rather ploughing on like leemings and blaming others for their LACK OF LEADERSHIP. And yes that's what we've had. Otherwise we would have moved on from this point, and things would actually have happened. An election will not change this. An election will not make May a better leader. May has been reactive and not proactive. She has never been ahead of the curve of seeing or predicting what was going to happen next. It will not change how the land lies, no matter how much propaganda is spat out and how many votes she wins. It does not change how the EU will react, quickly rightly and naturally, to protect their own interests - as we would do if someone else had decided to leave the EU whilst we were still a member. The divides will not disappear on June 9th.
We've lost months because we have not faced up to realities. Even if that reality is to start actively planning for a possible crash out - with contingencies for things like queues at Dover. Not that I particularly want that either.
sigh
This is what frustrates me so much. People said that the 2008 crash was not predictable. Some of us saw it coming a mile off, and planned accordingly. Reflecting back, just how surprised have I been about the events in the last 11 months? Not nearly as often as I should have been. How wrong have I been about what's happened? Not nearly as often as I would have liked.
Do I want to say "I told you so?" Fuck no. But there it is. Its not going away until someone starts to make it go away through showing the leadership we really need, which isn't through silencing critics and naysayers. Its through working with them.
more complex than that approach would suggest : 
