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Brexit

Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

976 replies

RedToothBrush · 22/04/2017 12:19

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

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Peregrina · 22/04/2017 18:59

Opinium have had the LDs down at least 2 - 3% on all the other pollsters taken at a similar time.

Yet the Lib Dems have been gaining huge numbers of new members. More than Labour, and I haven't heard about the Tories. It seems to be the same story with the Local Elections - LibDems were way down in polls but have gained more than 30 seats since May last year, and the Tories have lost the most, and lost more than Labour.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 19:41

Opinium's previous poll was an odd outlier, with Tories only on 39%, far below what other pollsters had.
Now they've joined the pack, so they could had some odd sampling error before.

Let's wait and see if the other pollsters are showing this jump, or if it is just Opinium giving it's head a wobble

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 19:43

its head

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 19:55

British Election Study

"Since the 2016 EU referendum, there has been much discussion of whether the UK party system is set to realign around the issue of the EU, just as the Scottish party system has around the issue of independence"

"there has been a great deal of movement in vote intentions since 2015 amongst both Remainers and Leavers ....
only 56% of Remainers and 56% of Leavers said they would vote for the same party as they voted for in 2015."

Labour
"2015 Labour voters have been defecting in high numbers on both the Remain and Leave sides.

Labour’s best move here is tricky.
While Labour leave supporters have been more likely to leave Labour than Remain supporters, Labour also started with more Remain voters to begin with.

The net result is that Labour is losing a fairly similar absolute number of Remain and Leave voters."

LibDems
" the scale of a Liberal Democrat revival from Remain voters is fairly small .... only 10% of Labour Remain voters and 8% of Conservative Remain voters had defected to the Liberal Democrats."

"So is British politics realigning?

The EU referendum has certainly stirred voters up even more than would be expected in the volatile modern electoral environment.

Tories
"The Conservatives do look set to become the dominant party of Leave voters, but there is no one party that is currently consolidating Remain voters.

Whether this merely reflects the popularity of Theresa May compared with Jeremy Corbyn’s lukewarm (at best) support or a permanent shift in British party politics remains to be seen."

http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/has-brexit-broken-british-voting/#.WPulO1TRahD

woman12345 · 22/04/2017 19:58

Hope it's OK to re post from the lovely Trump thread:
m.facebook.com/amy.siskind/posts/10212462372899491
Siskind's excellent documenting of authoritarianism in US, this week.

Why The New Child Rape Case Filed Against Donald Trump Should Not Be Ignored
www.huffingtonpost.com/lisa-bloom/why-the-new-child-rape-ca_b_10619944.html?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004

As Bill O' Reilly's behaviour has resulted in his sacking, the above is still worth monitoring. It's an a 6 month old article, but in the light of O'Reilly worth revisiting.

Many things repulse me about May's behaviour with Trump, but the above allegations, sexual assault claims and his recorded comments and behaviour towards women, make her alliance unforgivable.

BluePeppersAndBroccoli · 22/04/2017 20:06

.

Peregrina · 22/04/2017 20:06

I would say that the LibDems were consolidating the Remain voters. Not always fairly. I would think that a Labour Remain MP who defied the whip and voted against Art.50 being triggered would still be worth the vote.

I haven't read the whole article, but no mention of UKIP? I remember saying as far back as the Sleaford by election that despite the constant media exposure they were getting they weren't actually doing all that well. A very poor second there was overlooked but a poor 4th from Labour was highlighted.

RedToothBrush · 22/04/2017 20:19

Peregina, in the last three opinion polls - the first since the announcement of the General - all have the LDs ahead of UKIP. They haven't been ahead since before the last General.

March For Science Signs. To amuse you:
www.buzzfeed.com/tamerragriffin/march-for-science-signs?bftw=undefined&utm_term=.bpB6zA2kp#.vdqr5jK8n

Right.

Election Leaflets.

electionleaflets.org/
This site has been running for a few years now. It collects election leaflets. It a record of all election promises that have been made by your local candidates and by parties.

I've upload to it in the past when I've received one that has really boiled my piss. Somehow its somewhat cathartic that its preserved to be studied or used against offenders in someway in the future.

If you get any between now and June either for the Locals or the GE, please don't just chuck them in the bin if they annoy you. Scan and upload first before setting fire to them.

The best one I've found for May/June so far is this one:
electionleaflets.org/leaflets/13785/
Make Abingdon Great Again - UKIP
Let's get rich with the council!

If anyone can look at this without going WTF you are doing better than I am.

TOMORROW French elections: Exit Polls due at around 7pm UK time.

uk.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-merkel-germany-eu-2017-4?r=US&IR=T
Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times

"Ten times Trump asked [German chancellor Angela Merkel] if he could negotiate a trade deal with Germany. Every time she replied, 'You can’t do a trade deal with Germany, only the EU,'" the official said.

They continued: "On the eleventh refusal, Trump finally got the message, 'Oh, we’ll do a deal with Europe then.'"

Merkel reportedly told her cabinet members thatTrump had "very basic misunderstandings" on the "fundamentals" of the EU and trade.

You do wonder just how with it he is. A couple of days ago he was going on about his 'good friend Pavarotti'. Who has been dead for 10 years.

OP posts:
woman12345 · 22/04/2017 20:20

no mention of UKIP in an election with no serious remain opposition Banks's work is done.Sad Except for SF, Green and Lib Dem, alliances across leave/ remain have successfully destroyed all traditional and SNP party loyalty, according to that article.

Banks must be pleased. I dread to think what he does to celebrate. This is his win, and our loss of democracy, for the moment.

The delegate/representative thing is really important. MPs as public servants representing the public's best interests seems to have been replaced by MPs as delegates of the executive and whoever the executive is in thrall to.

woman12345 · 22/04/2017 20:26

You do wonder just how with it he is
Section 25 time again for the Donald:
www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/president-trump/donald-trump-has-dangerous-mental-illness-say-psychiatry-experts-at-yale-conference-35644597.html

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 20:34

Expected Seat Changes:
(summary / average of several political analysts) *
*
Liberals could pick up 4 seats in London and Cambridge (3 Tory and 1 Labour).
However, pundits are saying they'd do well to reach even 20 seats.

imo, looking back at previous Liberal leaders, Farron is not inspiring - and this is a rare opportunity for them when the Official Opposition has dissolved into impotent chaos.

Tories expected to win great swathes of seats from Labour:
NE, NW, Yorkshire & Humber, W Midlands plus Hove in the South.

Labour predicted to end up with under 200 seats, so that gives them a chance to do better than expected !*

Scotland*
Edinburgh South – Lab to SNP
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk – SNP to Con
Dumfries & Galloway – SNP to Con

Final total would be:
SNP 55, Con 3, LibDems=1, Labour=0

Worsening humiliation for Labour in what used to be their stronghold.

I'm astonished howabout sees Scotland as the route back to power for Labour - from a base of ZERO Hmm

Wales
7 seats go Labour to Con

Labour lose Wales, where they have held the most seats since 1922.

Labour must pour resources into Wales, because if they can't win even the smaller nations - and they will get slaughtered in the biggest - then they look irrelevant and impotent.

Any new leader needs at least a minimum baseline on which to build for the future.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 20:45

President Trump and friends:

Trump hosted a cosy White House dinner for Sarah Palin and her infamous chum Ted Nugent:

" Nugent said in 2012 that

Barack Obama should "suck on my machine gun".

He added: "Hey Hillary [Clinton], you might want to ride one of these into the sunset, you worthless b."

Mr Nugent also called Mr Obama a “sub-human mongrel”

< plays to Trump's core vote >

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/president-trump/donald-trump-hosts-man-who-called-for-death-of-barack-obama-at-white-house-35641410.html

Mistigri · 22/04/2017 20:46

If anyone wants some distraction from the grim state of UK politics (and reassurance, if that's the right word, that it's almost as bad elsewhere) here is a good round up of the state of polling going into the French election tomorrow.

www.tooclosetocall.ca

(In French, though Canadian French so a bit less wordy and probably easier to read than French French!)

His conclusions are the same as most other pollsters ie that a Macron-Le Pen second round is the most likely outcome, but he has some interesting things to say about uncertainty and polling errors. Basically, because Macron is not standing for an established party (making it harder for polling organisations to calibrate their samples) and because he can both lose and gain supporters from left and right, there is a wider range for the likely macron vote than for le pen. This makes me a bit nervous about a Fillon-Le Pen second round because I think if any candidate is under-polling due to the shy voter effect, it's Fillon.

Le Pen's drop in the last few weeks is basically young people jumping ship for Melenchon. She was polling around 30% with young voters (18-24s) a few weeks ago, now it's half that.

Anecdotal but DD in equivalent-Y12 says that most of her friends would vote Melenchon if they were old enough.

Mistigri · 22/04/2017 21:06

Did someone post this already?

Out of date now, but still fascinating (re how votes are shifting)

Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.
woman12345 · 22/04/2017 21:09

Misti watching with horror/hope for France.

But Obama back on the trail BigChoc
www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/21/barack-obama-make-first-public-speech-since-donald-trump-became/
and lovely letter to him, from player doomed to visit WH now. It is a white house.
people.com/sports/patriots-players-letter-thanks-barack-obama/
Kudos to this feminist man:
"Defensive tackle Alan Branch did not pay President Trump a visit. Speaking to CNN, he said he skipped the trip because of the “disgusting” way that Trump talks about women. “I have no interest in going and shaking his hand,” Branch explained. “I’ve gotta [be able to] go back home and look my daughters in the eye.”

Wish May had such loyalty to British women.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 21:14

It's good to hear about men who respect the women in their family enough to boycott this vile misogynist.

BigChocFrenzy · 22/04/2017 21:24

Geek note: A slight oddity caused by the 2011 FTPA

Section 1 of the FTPA states:
"‘polling days would be on the first Thursday in May in the fifth calendar year"

So the GE after this one will be on 5 May 2022
(unless the status of Brexit negotiations causes the govt to call another early GE !)

afaik, this would be the first Parliament in modern times whose maximum term is defined to be less than 5 years

May might well include repeal of the FTPA in the Tory manifesto, but I don't know if that could retrospectively lengthen the term of the then Parliament, or just the future Parliaments Hmm

Kaija · 22/04/2017 21:24

Thanks for the new thread.

Really good article on the referendum here from last July by George Turner, the Lib Dem candidate going up against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall:

medium.com/@georgenturner/why-we-lost-the-eu-referendum-dcb58336c7cb

HesterThrale · 22/04/2017 21:42

Depressing poll. May on 50%. I think I'm going to start ignoring polls.

www.google.co.uk/amp/www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-hits-magical-50-per-10277463.amp

HashiAsLarry · 22/04/2017 21:44

I'm about ready to give up on this country after having another conversation where someone would rather the NHS be privatised than pay more tax, despite the obvious them needing to pay more ultimately. I not sure how much more I can bang my head on a table. This is not my country. These are not my people. Sad

thecatfromjapan · 22/04/2017 22:06

The George Turner article is very good.

woman12345 · 22/04/2017 22:15

There you go Hashi, hope they continue to think they will win a landslide; timing is all. Smile
www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/04/why-tory-mps-believe-they-may-not-win-general-election-landslide

It'd take one encounter between Teresa and a real human( a la Thatcher)

to change the game, and despite her hench men's best efforts, the mask will slip.

Or imagine, if like Merkel she found that she had humanity?

woman12345 · 22/04/2017 22:15

And thanks for the article Kaija all true.

MitzyLeFrouf · 22/04/2017 22:18

Pollster John Curtice thinks Tories are on course to win 12 seats in Scotland.

RedToothBrush · 22/04/2017 22:20

I've worked it out. People have gone ok I'll do it. I'll vote Tory if it means you don't hold another election campaign for years. Anything for no more politics.

They tortured 50% of the electorate into submission.

OP posts: