Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Yes, and just think if we had one-year-long election campaigns like in the US, we'd be continuously subjected to it!

, I can see their point. Politics free holidays, would make a fortune nowadays!

Didn't Hannah Arendt say something about that too, though? Isn't this part of the strategy? It's not really politics though, it's regime change.

TBH I'm understanding the Gove idea of things needing to be burned to the ground before, except I think it may be our political system that needs it before anything else. And if it could be achieved by means that wont shit on us plebs then I'd be all for it.

I'll resume a happier platform soon. Need a reset myself.

So that's the 2nd poll after the GE announcement, both showing UKIP crashing, Labour falling too - Their floor was 30%, then 25%, now even 20% is being whispered.

Those lost UKIP votes are going to the Tories (the demise of BlueKIP ?) as are most of those ditching Labour.

LibDems taking some from Labour and from Tory.
Pulling clear of UKIP now, but still only less than half of their 2010 GE 23% (which produced 57 seats)
How much can they progress by 8 June ..... nowhere near that much, I think.

Keir Starmer, the shadow brexit minister, said: “Guy Verhofstadt asks, ‘what is the purpose of this general election’? The answer is simple. The prime minister is attempting to crush all challenge to her hard Tory Brexit approach at home and to negotiate by threat and demand abroad. As Guy Verhofstadt rightly points out, far from helping negotiations with the EU, the prime minister’s stance is eroding the chances of achieving the best deal for Britain.”

From the Guy Verhofstadt/Guardian article linked above by Lalalonglegs.
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/theresa-may-election-power-grab-slammed-guy-verhofstadt-brexit-negotiator

Latest Scottish poll has:
SNP 43 (-7)
Conservative 28 (+13)
Labour 18 (-6)
LibDem 9 (+1)

1992 was the last time they were close to this level of support and they got 11 seats out of 72.

In 1983 they got 21 out of 72 seats on a similar vote share because the LibDems took a huge chunk out of the Labour vote due to the SDP.

Perhaps 12 out of 59 is not imaginable.

Survation poll broken down by leave/remain and 2017 voting intention.

Leave voters
Con 53.4%
Lab 18.2%
UKIP 17.1%
LD 4.8%
SNP 3.3%
Green 1.4%
Plaid (-)
Another 2%

Remain Voters
Lab 37.9%
Con 28.5%
LD 16.6%
SNP 5.5%
UKIP 5.3%
Green 3.2%
Plaid 1%
Another 2.1%

There are one or two numbers in there that make my mind boggle.

The electorate is stupid. There I said it. Clear evidence here that both leave and remain voters suffer from that particular affliction.

Different sampling methods, weighting of data, handling of DKs ...

Polling firms have corrected for their umpteen years of underpredicting the Tory vote
Have some in fact over-corrected ?

YouGov poll in Sunday Times:
CON 48%(nc)
LAB 25%(+1)
LDEM 12%(nc)
UKIP 5%(-2)

Survation poll Mail on Sunday:
CON 40% (+2)
LAB 29% (nc)
LDEM 11% (+1)
UKIP 11% (-2)

Jeremy Corbyn has proposed four new UK-wide bank holidays saying "the next Labour government will give workers the break they deserve"

Apparently talking about St George's day etc. 3 of which in spring close to Easter and May which already have most of our bank holidays.

Here have some straws to clutch whilst looking slightly stressed.

www.indy100.com/article/theresa-may-election-tactics-revealed-boring-gsk-toothpaste-7696521

"It looks like this year's general election will be won not by flashy campaigns, easily Photoshopped posters or party political broadcasts - there's a much more sinister tactic being employed.

Instead of actual policy promises that she'll have to deliver on if she's re-elected on June 8th - it would appear Theresa May is simply boring the country into submission

The few in the audience that managed to stay awake, or were actually listening, heard the PM say that a Tory victory was "not certain" and repeated the phrase "strong and stable leadership" six times.

This is allegedly part of a new technique from 'master of the dark arts' Lynton Crosby who is running the Conservative campaign.

The Tories alleged goal is to scare people into voting by getting voters to think she could lose"

Some good pictures and tweets.^ Project Fear again, reversed.

Hashi Lower taxes are a traditional reason for voting Tory and generally a respectable enough one.
However, some people don't want to say they are voting in their own interests, or even just to keep quiet and vote:

imo, they feel the need to justify their decision online, also to their family & friends - and maybe to themselves.
Hence they eagerly seize on tabloid demonising of "benefit scroungers", on claims that the nhs is unsustainable, that the welfare state is swamped by families with umpteen kids and by asylum seekers.

But its generally lower taxes for the rich.

Most people will never get the 50% tax bracket.

Even those on over 70% are the top 5%

Sadly people vote against their own interests, and then blame migrants and refugees.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/general-election-coup-mps-theresa-may

I agree with Anne Perkins that this is a coup, that Theresa May has grand designs for whatever remains of the UK when the dust settles, and I share her frustration with Labour (with Corbyn).

I agree that the NHS as it was originally designed cannot cope with the situation today, with many more old people, and disease patterns which have changed, plus new treatments being available. We desperately need a proper debate about what we are prepared to pay for an how we want it to be delivered. We aren't getting that, we are getting the privatisation by stealth, with at least one poster on another thread excusing it 'because they are more efficient' - on the basis of no evidence.

I think with a proper debate and a straight question - are you happy to pay more tax to keep the NHS public, a significant number would say yes.

If you lower tax, people both rich and poor still end up paying in different ways. Paying for health care, paying for care for the elderly being the big ones, paying for decent education. Just look at America!

As far as health care goes - the poor often don't pay, they end up dying earlier.

At least some of us are warning about what May is up to. If May did want to make a success of Brexit, then wrecking the health and education of the population are not the best way to go about it.

One campaign I will definitely support: Sophie Walker to stand against Philip Davies.

Yes, Davies is probably the most vile MP in the HoC, with his views against women and the disabled
< cheers for Sophie Walker >
However I see he has a 9,624 majority in Shipley, so let's hope sufficient of his constituents are disgusted by his attitudes to buck the Tory landslide

I live in Davies constituency and Sophie Walker standing is not helpful at all. This is a very mixed constituency and she stands little chance of winning. Instead, she'll just split the opposition vote further. I think we'd all have to get behind one opposition candidate to unseat Davies. If everyone stands a candidate here as a protest against Davies then that's not going to happen.

I think we're stuck with the wazzock, sadly.

Actually a bit annoyed at the WEP over this- theyvshould have done their research and looked at the constituency as a whole, not just the saltaire bubble.

peregrina and bigchoc
Totally agree. I think its the short termism and greed that gets me. Its a sad state of affairs. It drives home the 'no such thing as society'.