Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Michael Crick‏*@MichaelLCrick*

May's "no election" pledge turns costly. Govt set to reimburse councils' election staff who cancelled hols booked in June after PM's pledges

Henry Zeffman‏ @hzeffman
Tim Farron repeats that David Ward's comments were "anti-Semitic". But not the job of leader to select candidates he says

George Eaton‏*@georgeeaton*

If Farron believes Ward's comments were "anti-Semitic", why is he in the party at all?

Hmm. Yes. Fair point. Blaming the party structure really isn't going to cut it...
(Though the Conservative position is to simply ignore similar problems and not let Theresa anywhere near making any comment to criticise or defend in anyway, until the news passes.)

Joe Murphy‏ @JoeMurphyLondon
Stand by for a historic poll from @ipsosMORI in tonight's @eveningstandard. Remember, they uniquely have figures going back to the 1970s ...

Sounds ominous. Suggests that its pretty much the worst ever for Labour from the phrasing of that.

Mike Smithson‏*@MSmithsonPB*
Ipsos MORI is the only pollster still carrying out regular phone surveys. Looking forward to the latest numbers

I believe I'm right in saying that the phone polls were the ones that proved to be most accurate in the last couple of years.

I'm not sure when its going to be available. Someone was suggesting 11.30am.

Peter Lilley CON standing down in Hitchen and Harpenden. Another very safe CON seat to be gifted.

www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/04/watkins-back-for-third-go-at-tooting-macleod-battles-cracknell-for-brentford-isleworth-latest-candidate-news.html
More Tory Candidates selected and shortlisted announced.

Noting James Cracknell (the Olympic Rower) is shortlisted for Brentford and Isleworth and ZacGoldsmith officially shortlisted...

www.politico.eu/article/eu-parliaments-could-get-vote-on-brexit-say-german-officials/
EU parliaments could get vote on Brexit, say German officials
Even a transitional deal could affect national legislation, Bundestag analysis says.

That could be 'interesting' especially if we don't get a vote.

So TF has a tiny party to manage in comparison with Labour and LibDem is supposed to be the place for Liberal values and freedom of conscience on sexuality and religion?

Yesterday TF is front and centre denying he is homophobic and today he is confirming a LibDem candidate is antisemitic.

Bigchoc Labour are NOT against the 2 child limit in tax credits, I am not even sure the SNP are. The "rape clause" would not arise if there were no such limit. pretty is right in stating that TC/UC is not devolved, but neither was the bedroom tax and the SNP mitigated it. Re your other points - how can Labour not be proposing rolling back introduction of UC while at the same time protecting the pensioner triple lock and not addressing funding social care (NI on pensioner incomes at the same rates as for the working population would be more than enough)? If Labour has a demographic advantage with the young they are not playing it.

I think the Conservatives would be mad to select Zac in preference to either of the other 2 and I would give Laura Farris good odds against Sarah Olney. Not at the stage of volunteering to eat my hat if they do select Zac, but I would be surprised.

The arrogance of Goldsmith.

I'm ashamed he was ever on my 'Tory I'd shag if I really had to' list.

Isos Mori Poll:
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (nc)
UKIP 4 (-2)

Mr Farron said he disagreed with the former MP’s comments, and pledged to take a robust stand against anti-Semitism.
“I am fully aware of the comments David Ward has made in the past and I find them deeply offensive, wrong and anti-Semitic,” he said.

“I think his decision to stand again, and the local party’s decision to select him, is wrong and I disagree with it completely.
“I don't select our individual candidates and nor should I. But let me be clear, I won't tolerate anti-Semitism in my party.
“David Ward has been disciplined in the past and if he or anyone else makes anti-Semitic remarks in this campaign I will expect the party to act quickly and decisively, as we did when we suspended a candidate in Luton South yesterday.”

He's previously had the party whip removed from him. This isn't he same slight slap on the wrist Livingston style. However, I don't think any party should be tolerating it in the slightest. Except maybe UKIP, coz that's totally their bag.

Luton Today Lib Dem Suspended

MO4D

We don't really know how the demographics will play out, and people may stay at home if they not happy with the Tories (eg people from a business background) or if they think victory is assured. I think RTB's suggestion of looking at 2010 results as the basis for tactical voting is sensible.

Laughing at the 'Let me be clear' line though

I hate to say it, but you are so screwed (as a country) :(

If Macron wins I may consider renouncing my UK citizenship when I take French citizenship and once the kids leave home I might even consider hedging my bets by going to live in Germany long enough to acquire a second EU nationality. DH and I both completely mobile, professionally so once we are French there is nothing to stop us.

Excellent performance from JC at PMQT. I'm (almost) inspired to vote Labour. As much as I despise the idea of Brexit, perhaps it's time to give more of my attention to domestic issues.

If I hear the words 'strong' and 'stable' much more I shall explode.

Misti my British passport expires in a few months and my parents are horrified that I don't plan to renew it and will just travel on my Irish one. But honestly, I don't want to be associated with this mess! I'm not giving up citizenship yet, I'm just not advertising it when I have to hand over ID. 49% for the far right tories?! That's a disgrace for this country.

TSE‏*@TSEofPB*
Does anyone have a list/total of the number of seats Labour came from third to win in 1997?

Peter Donaghy‏*@peterdonaghy*
St Albans, Shrewsbury & Atcham, Leeds NW, Hastings & Rye, Harwich (now mainly forms Clacton), Falmouth & Camborne (now mainly Camborne and Redruth), Conwy (now mainly Aberconwy), Bristol West

What is interesting about these seats (or their successors) is since 1997 who has come 1st, 2nd and 3rd has changed quite a bit. It has not stayed stagnant. Bristol West has seen the Green vote grow out of nowhere. Harwich was Carswell's seat before the boundaries were altered.

The seats with the lowest voter turnouts have been traditionally been Labour strongholds with no chance of change.

Its not a coincidence. It is all about the idea that the seat can change and your vote could mean the difference.

Keep an eye on some of those seats on June 8th btw.

Excellent performance from JC at PMQT.

You must be watching a different PMQs to me then!

I think he's performed terribly.

Just goes to show how subjective these things are though, that we're seeing the same thing so differently.

Oh and I expect a lot of those 'stagnant' Labour seats to change hand this election.

I just looked at voting records for my constituency more closely. The CON are second, trailing by about 11,000. But only for the last two generals. 2005 and before they were about equal with LD and swapped 2nd and 3rd between them. I wonder what happened to give them such a boost over LD (who were massacred in 2015, but even in 2010 had really fallen behind unlike in the rest of the country). SE London btw. Going to stick to my LD vote.

CopperRose true dat. And I struggle to get my head around it!

www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3869/Theresa-May-has-big-lead-as-most-capable-PM.aspx

The Ipsos MORI poll also finds that 63% of those expressing a voting intention have made up their mind on who they will vote for come June. Conservative voters are the most sure they’ve made up their minds with 78% saying they’ve definitely decided while 56% of Labour voters say the same. Liberal Democrat supporters however are least sure of their vote with 60% saying they may change their mind.

^ Wonder if it will change on May 5th...

De-lurking in support & encouragement of Heggarty and anyone else in a similar position…:
PLEASE VOTE (as per Red list & others) and please USE your vote (if necessary as a vote against… / tactically / or to dream) rather than destroying your ballot!

Have had a quick look at Heggarty’s situation (Richmondshire)…:
(Data: www.richmondshire.gov.uk/council-democracy/elections/election-results)
(and - yes, of course you can argue about methodology…)

IF you take an average of the last 3 general elections as a ‘baseline’ of the local voting tendency, this gives: Cons ~29,300. Lab ~8,100. LD ~7,200.
However, LD were very heavily penalised in ’15, so you might wish to use ’05-’10 average instead, giving: LD ~9,100.
Local vote was 43% Remain; nationally Conservative vote was 42% Remain.
IF Remain Cons all switch to Labour, then result would be:
Cons ~17,000. Lab ~20,400
IF Remain Cons all switch to LD, then result would be:
Cons ~17,000. LD ~19,600 – 21,500 (depending on baseline you choose).

You can further complicate the analysis by adjusting for Lab Leavers etc, but it does not actually change the point – which is that it is POSSIBLE to get to a different result…

In addition, for 2015 GE (Richmondshire) had almost 24,900 non-voters; if 42% are motivated Remainers, who decide to vote this time, that is another potential ~10,500 votes in addition to the analysis above…

Furthermore, it is very likely that many of the these people will be people who feel like you.
This is why it is so important to VOTE.

Additionally, you CAN realistically have a significant impact in helping achieve a difference.
Heggarty: IF you find 10 people (20 would be even better) who feel the same way as you, and you convince them to vote (even better IF you can agree what would be the best voting strategy locally) AND you get a commitment from each of them to do the same (ie find 10 people etc…): it only takes 3 repeats of this to potentially reach 10,000-20,000 people.

I know this is maths, but it shows that it is POSSIBLE to win even where the odds look bleak…
I like the idea of Dream => Believe => Achieve (borrowed from elsewhere).

And PS.: thanks Red & All for this thread: great to know you are all out there!!!

Also on how to make a difference:
The three largest grassroots pro-European organisations in the country – Open Britain, European Movement, and Britain for Europe – are today [Tuesday] launching a key seat strategy, where their volunteers who wish to get involved in the General Election will easily be able to find a constituency near them where they can campaign against hard Brexit.

www.open-britain.co.uk/campaign_groups_launch_key_seat_strategy_to_oppose_hard_brexit

www.ft.com/content/033c5a46-2a5d-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
Theresa May looks to steer Brexit talks in Barnier meeting
UK prime minister seeks low-key negotiation while EU wants more transparent approach

In recent weeks, Mr Robbins has stressed to other European diplomats that Mrs May wants to depoliticise the preparations for Brexit as much as possible, and keep the details of discussions quiet.

This contrasts with the Commission’s plans for a more transparent and ordered process, where all of its main negotiating position papers would be public. Mr Barnier is advocating for week-long “negotiating rounds” taking place around once a month, which would potentially involve Mr Davis and Mr Barnier giving press conferences. The “heavy lifting” on technical matters would be left to Mr Robbins and Ms Weyand.

'Depoliticise'. Good luck with that Mrs May.

Kevin Schofield‏ @PolhomeEditor
Source close to Jeremy Corbyn reveals he won't take part in TV debates if Theresa May doesn't. #GE17

Smart move this for Labour. He can't shoot himself in the foot OR be shown up by Tim Farron. Its a blow to the LDs though, as despite already having Farron score some own goals they need the publicity and the story to be about how the LDs are in the game. Instead the story remains with CCHQ about it being May v Corbyn.

Ipos Mori poll questioned about which was a driver of vote - policy, personality or party. The importance of policy has dropped since last month. The importance of personality has increased since last month. Party has stayed the same.

Again it will be music to CCHQ though.

In other news the new LD candidate in my constituency looks about 12.

My mother tells me I'm getting old.