Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

n recent weeks, Mr Robbins has stressed to other European diplomats that Mrs May wants to depoliticise the preparations for Brexit as much as possible, and keep the details of discussions quiet.

This is just the sort of scenario that convinces me that we are doomed: TM can't even get the EU to agree her (frankly sinister) demands for secrecy. I can't imagine for a moment that she is going to be any more successful at persuading them to give us a "great deal works for Britain" either unless she is prepared to compromise on all sorts of matters including her red line of FoM. The whole thing is doomed.

I can see why the Tories want secrecy - to cover up the incompetence and the extent to which they're muddling through.

TF has acted and fired the anti-semitic candidate: www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/26/lib-dems-criticised-over-reselection-of-ex-mp-censured-for-antisemitism

Lewis Goodall‏*@lewis*_goodall
Govt spokesman again refuses to commit to pensions triple lock like PM in PMQs. Only committed to "pension rises". Talks of lock in past tense

Faisal Islam‏**@faisalislam**

Here's my thread from last week on pensions triple lock - originally costed at £450m a year. Big decision for Conservatives.

Faisal Islam‏**@faisalislam**

On Triple Lock for Pensions - has been guaranteed by Labour, SNP in 2017... LibDems had in 2015 as did Conservatives..unclear as yet in 2017. When first announced in June 2010 Budget the cost of the Triple Lock was put at £450m a year... its more like TEN times that cost.

This inadvertently released Government Actuary Report put the cost at £6 billion a year for Triple Lock. OBR calculates that by 2020/21 Triple Lock will have pushed up Pensions costs by £4.73 billion a year to £80 billion vs earnings uprating. Over the past few years the Pensions Triple Lock was far more expensive than forecast because it repeatedly "bit". Eg Nov 2015: Triple Lock meant 2.9% increase in pensions £3.35 a week - biggest real terms increase in 15 years.. Meant cuts elsewhere at DWP

OBR projects that continuing with Triple Lock will take State Pension Spending up to 7.5% of GDP, rather than 6% by 2060s... currently 5%. IFS show for this and other reasons that median Pensioner income up sharply as non-pensioners have endured a decade of stagnation. Meanwhile IFS also shows that Pensioner Poverty is falling sharply, while child poverty was falling, now on rise

Anyway - this is a really good summary of all stats etc on Triple Lock from:
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7812/CBP-7812.pdf

So Labour have vowed to guarantee Triple Lock -but at £5bn/yr can UK afford it? & can PM afford to give an in with older voters to LAbour?

Also noteworthy: state pension recipients who were predominantly for Leave are protected from £ slide price rises by Triple Lock.

The last point is significant. I think the triple lock removal won't put off people thinking of voting Conservative at the GE. In fact it could do the opposite. It could expose them to criticism of the handing of Brexit though.

Right decision really. The triple lock was not sustainable. Poverty in old age needs to be addressed in other ways.

Jessica Elgot‏ @jessicaelgot
EXC: Lib Dems sack David Ward after Farron steps in. Ex-MP is "unfit to represent the party." My story here -
www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/26/lib-dems-criticised-over-reselection-of-ex-mp-censured-for-antisemitism

Well, turns out Farron did have the power afterall. Contrast to Corbyn or simply a damage limitation exercise?

www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-brexit-stance-means-they-cannot-call-themselves-the-party-of-business-a3524086.html
Tory Brexit stance means they 'cannot call themselves the party of business'

^ Note: Evening Standard

Re the Tories trying to "depoliticise" the Brexit negotiations by keeping them secret

Politicians love secrecy - they thrive on it. They shouldn't but they do.

These negotiations will affect all of us in the UK. The politicians owe it to us to own their decisions and to be open about our negotiating stance.

It's somewhat ironic that it's the EU who plan on being open and there is nothing that the UK can do about it.

Election Data‏*@election*_data
Recommend watching Macron right now with angry workers:
www.facebook.com/EmmanuelMacron/videos/1954327514799825/

Can't speak highly enough for what Macron is doing right now. Speaking with angry workers, many of whom are angry at him. Powerful.
Some smiles and a 'bit' of laughter now for Macron. It's almost like, I dunno, slowly the situation is being disarmed. Hmmm.
This is the best 10 minutes in politics in the last decade from Macron at Whirlpool.

Compare and contrast with British politics.

David Allen Green on May's secrecy:

Two players at a table.

One lays their cards on the table, and sits back.

The other keeps theirs to their chest.

#Brexit

Steve Peers has been tweeting about the proposal for a new European Pillar of Social Rights.

I've copied what he says below though its still long winded and difficult to get what he's going on about without the background knowledge but you can get the jist.

Here is first para from the press release about what the European Pillar of Social Rights is about:

Building a fairer Europe and strengthening its social dimension is a key priority for this Commission.

Today, it delivers on its promise to adopt its proposal for the European Pillar of Social Rights. The Pillar sets out 20 key principles and rights to support fair and well-functioning labour markets and welfare systems. The Pillar is designed as a compass for a renewed process of upward convergence towards better working and living conditions in Europe. It is primarily conceived for the euro area but applicable to all EU Member States wishing to be part of it.

Looking through what he says, there are some useful points there. I noted that some of the detail he lists about workers rights are already within British law. Some of it does and is intended to help stop worker exploitation. Where it does propose extending rights to be more in line with what we have in the UK, it could well help discourage migration from those EU countries to here.

Criticism of the gig economy is noteworthy too, given how the Conservatives are celebrating it.

Overall I can see its probably a thing of horror for those who want to have a bonfire of rights in the UK under Brexit. Its no wonder they hate the EU...

There are also notes of 'look of what you could have won' to parts of the Labour Party too. Its crazy to think that they would want to walk away from this and risk losing rights and aren't selling how extending rights we already have in the UK to other parts of the EU would help with migration and benefit British citizens indirectly.

Steve Peers‏**@StevePeers**
EU "Pillar of social rights" - press release with links here: europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-1007_en.htm
Some thoughts 1/n
2 This is very poorly presented. Euro jargon isn't new but there's far too much here, especially given the subject matter.
3 There will be a couple of recommendations plus some other stuff. But it's hard to see what the latter is exactly.
4 If I find all this unclear after years of teaching it to LLM students, how will it be understood by normal non-wonks?
5 What it needed was some core simple social pledges, even though most of them would constitute soft law.
6 Here is the list of different items from the Commission agenda: specifically work/life balance, employment contracts, working time.
(document attached but in French anyway)
7 Not all is legislation and there's no clear central message about ensuring basic protection from austerity and globalisation.
8 Are they aware there are political parties blaming every problem on overworking/lazy migrants and baby-eating Muslims?
9 Technocrats have to draft details of laws & policy papers that aim to address genuine problems.
But have some ambition. Have some savvy.
10 Otherwise the people blaming migrants & Muslims for everything will keep getting a hearing that their mindless bigotry will never deserve
11 Perhaps the plan is to present something underwhelming, leaving it to Macron and Merkel to get the credit for drafting something punchier
12 So here's an idea to move from austerity back to legitimacy: minimum wage and minimum income laws:
eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2017/03/from-austerity-back-to-legitimacy.html?m=1
ends

Steve Peers‏**@StevePeers**

F1 Footnotes on EU social rights proposals as docs are available.
Working time:
ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1314&langId=en
Guidance doc & implementation rept
F2 Consulting on amending current 'written statement' directive: ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1313&langId=en
Re extending scope to McJobs, more detail on rights
F3 Consulting re new law on access to social security for workers in 'gig economy'
ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1312&langId=en
Uber lobbyists pick up phone
F4 New law proposed to improve parental leave rights (replacing 2010 law), also a parallel discussion paper:
ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=1311&langId=en
F5 The main points in the parental leave & work-life balance proposal summarised here
Introduction of paternity leave. Fathers/second parents will be able to take at least 10 working days of paternity leave at least at the level of sick pay
The strengthening of parental leave by making 4 months period compensated at least at sick pay level and non-transferable from a parent to another. Parents will also have the right to request to take leave in a flexible way increased from when the child is 8 to 12 years old.
The introduction of carers' leave for workers caring for the seriously ill or dependent relatives.
The extension of the right to request flexible working arrangements.
F6 The last main thing is the "Pillar of Social Rights" itself, which is a Commission recommendation
ec.europa.eu/commission/priorities/deeper-and-fairer-economic-and-monetary-union/european-pillar-social-rights/european-pillar-social-rights-20-principles_en
F7 The separate communication makes clear that this applies to the euro zone plus non-€ countries that opt to sign up
F8 Somehow I don't think the UK will sign up. May would just do that weird laugh again. But the other proposals apply to all Member States.
F9 Having said that, none of the new laws being proposed or considered would apply before Brexit Day.
F10 Let's look in more detail, and explain more why this is disappointing. Here's one clause from the "pillar of social rights"
F11 Employers must have flexibility to adapt to economic changes. But what about workers who are impacted. Is this "secure" employment?
F12 There's an existing EU law on collective redundancies, ie factory closures. Why not beef that up? Why not reconsider state aid law?
F13 Trump tweets constantly about saving jobs. Many have pointed out fibs in these tweets. But reacting alone is not enough. It's defensive.
F14 The clause also talks about atypical work. There are EU laws on part-time, fixed-term and agency work. A consultation today on Uber etc.
F15 But why nothing on zero-hour contracts or internships? And why not give examples of the many times EU law already helped workers? end

RTB *Source close to Jeremy Corbyn reveals he won't take part in TV debates if Theresa May doesn't. #GE17

Smart move this for Labour. He can't shoot himself in the foot OR be shown up by Tim Farron*

TV debates allow candidate to speak direct to the electorate. Empty chair, for no-show May, and Corbyn can shoot at an open goal might be own goal But access to large number of electorate without filter of fail/scum etc.

Unforunately, he Uk has a tradition of far greater secrecy than other Western democracies.

Knowledge is power, but politicians in other democracies haven't managed to keep such a grip on information that is of genuine public interest / concern.

The UK media will feverishly dig out the slightest rumour about a politician caughtwith their trousers down, or incorrectly eating a bacon sarnie, but are relatively acquiescent in letting govts keep quiet about major issues.

Point 12 was all Steve Peers needed to say. Mind you all the rest does rather highlight the level of meaningless bureaucratic drivel which constitutes much of supposed workers protection derived from EU regulation.

According to Tom Brake The Triple Lock was yet another one of the LibDem coalition successes. Unclear if they were also the key drivers behind the GO austerity measures which proved so effective in depressing relative working wages to allow pensioners to catch up so quickly.

Red - I believe George Osborne starts his new job as Eve Std editor next week so it will be interesting to see if he has the courage of his convictions and criticises May (if not the Conservative Party). I'd lay money on him standing by her until she is safely reinstalled and then yapping uselessly from Northcliffe House .

Here's some info from Reality Check about Labour's spending plans. So far they've committed to spend an increase in corporation tax on:

increased pay for NHS staff
British Steel
the reintroudction of student maintenance grants
scrapping of university tuition fees
the schools budget
social care

Looks like companies are going to have a sharp increase in tax if labour get in (hope there's lots of free office space in Ireland for them to move to...corporation tax 12.5% for trading income, 25% for non trading income)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39720085

RTB - thanks for helpful IFS link on pensions triple lock. I happen to agree with them that it has served its purpose in that pensioners' income levels have caught up but that it will become very expensive over the next few years and so a double lock where pensions keep up with earnings seems fairer from an inter generational point of view.

Peter Lilley CON standing down in Hitchen and Harpenden.

Yet another Brexiter jumping ship. I am not sorry to see him go. It's a pity he didn't get wiped out at the same time as Portillo.

Peter Lilley

Be fair - he's been at it 34 yrs and is 73yrs old. It's about time he stood down!!

I don't like him though!

No I won't be fair to Peter Lilley. Both Ken Clarke and Dennis Skinner are older, and have been MPs for significantly longer, and they aren't running away. Both are men who have stuck to their principles even though they belong to Opposing parties and take opposing views on Brexit. So although Skinner voted for A50 because he is and always has been a Lexiter, he didn't vote to have the election - no doubt thinking it a cynical move on May's behalf.

Spitting Image used to portray Lilley as a Nazi, if I remember correctly.

BBC iplayer is currently playing a short 20 minute programme about how the HoC works. Two people were given a tour and spoke numerous MPs from different parties.

It was filmed on the day the election was asked, which added an additional dimension.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0512ymm
MP for a Day: Who cares about politics?

The two people they showed around didn't feel they understood politics before, so its interesting to see their response after the tour.

Well at least we agree that we're not sorry to see him go, and that we both like Spitting Image...I hope they bring it back !

They have, but it was in 2915. Not seen this repeated recently.

2015 obvs

I'd forgotten: Peter Lilley used to be my MP. Didn't register that he was the MP for Hitchin & Harpenden. It's 30 years since I lived there

I do remember knowing that my vote would just be a protest vote!