Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Scotland with Scottish MPs represented in all UK wide parties at Westminster is the solution that may finally get Devolution to a settled functioning solution.

The experience of Ireland during the Home Rule campaigns of the late 19th and early 20th centuries suggests the opposite, as does the experience of Scotland under Margaret Thatcher.

The way TM seems only interested in cultivating the DUP in Northern Ireland these days also suggests that input from those places will be welcome to rubber stamp Tory policies only, and parties opposing the Tories will be completely ignored to the point of being thrown under the bus if Tory/Brexit needs dictate, even if the opposition represents a majority in those provinces.

The maths of the situation dictates reality here - a big Tory win in England and Wales means Scotland and NI will be sidelined. Even a decent majority means Scotland and NI voters will be sidelined. There are 533 constituencies in England and 59 in Scotland.

How many constituencies are there in NI? I can see that if May gets her majority she won't care about the DUP. But what if SinnFein win more? They don't take their seats in Westminster anyway, so won't provide any opposition.

I can see it all becoming extremely ugly.

18 Parliamentary constituencies - 4 borough constituencies in Belfast and 14 outside of Belfast.

The Tories need the DUP onside even with a majority, and let's face it, the DUP are really their only friends or even potential friends in NI. The reason to keep the DUP sweet is partly the spectre of street protests and a return to prominence of the Loyalist paramilitaries, and also because they are a channel for dark money that flows into Britain www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/24/eu-referendum-spending-official-campaigns-investigation-opens-electoral-commission. They are like Tory stormtroopers.

*That Guardian article uses the misleading term 'pro-union', with lower case letter u. I think it should be 'pro-Union' to emphasise the fact that it is the political unions of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and Scotland that it supports, not labour unions.

Times: Banks pop up with way to stay in City after Brexit

"The plan, which is being kept confidential as lawyers and regulatory experts refine the details, could put banks on a collision course with European regulators, which fear a “brass plate” syndrome of lenders not having a proper presence in their countries."

< so head office would remain regulated in London ? Dodgy. That would not go down well in the E27. >

/business/banks-pop-up-with-way-to-stay-in-city-after-brexit-j2qtlckst

"The focus of the Brexit debate for the big banks has been on which countries they will choose as their new centres within the European Union in order to retain access to the single market after Britain leaves.

Several banks have warned that they might have to move hundreds or thousands of jobs to Paris, Frankfurt or elsewhere in the bloc.

However, some with large operations in London are considering applying for licences in multiple EU countries and installing small branches."

"One senior City source said that banks were “planning and talking to regulators about this” idea of opening pop-up branches.

Peter Snowdon, a partner at Norton Rose Fulbright, the law firm, said:
“No regulators like brass plate operations because if something goes wrong they want people on the ground to sort it out. But it is in principle workable.”
"Banks could use the approach until the details of Brexit emerge.
Large firms are worried about having enough time to prepare for Britain’s exit in 2019, as the practical and regulatory hurdles to setting up big subsidiaries in new jurisdictions will take years.

With EU negotiators, led by Michel Barnier, insisting that Britain agree its divorce terms before talks on a future relationship can begin, time may be short."

Big choc - I read 'banks' and thought you were talking about Arron!! I was just about to go wtaf is he up to now!

It sounds as though the EU is on to the brass plate malarky.

unicorns me too

Hunt yes I spelled it wrong is on my tv right now talking about how to increase NHS funding ffs.

Do you think that would be best achieved by a strong Theresa May or...
No, she'll sell the bastard off while you rub your hands with glee you disingenuous arsewipe

Sorry, need to vent. My 6yo has asked why I shouted at the man on the telly so I'm trying to vent here!!!

"Conservative party ignored police requests to hand over internal bullying report British Transport police say party has rebuffed repeated requests to see findings of inquiry launched following suicide of young activist Elliott Johnson.

The Conservatives published a summary of the inquiry findings in August. It revealed that the inquiry, conducted by the law firm Clifford Chance, had identified 13 alleged victims of Clarke, the so-called Tatler Tory, over a 20-month period, including six accusations of “sexually inappropriate behaviour”.

The report revealed that senior Conservatives, including David Cameron’s spin doctor Lynton Crosby and the former party co-chairman Lord Feldman, had raised concerns about Clarke’s conduct.

Johnson added: “Here’s a Tory party sitting on a vast amount of evidence collected from 60 activists and the Tory party won’t release it and it poses the question why. They don’t want to release it because there’s information in there that is damning to them and their senior members.”

Johnson said: “They’re a law unto themselves. They obviously think: they’re the government, they make the laws, they are the law.”

www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/25/conservative-party-police-bullying-report-elliott-johnson

they’re the government, they make the laws, they are the law

Rafael Behr on the Tories' need for opacity on Brexit, and how they are getting it:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/theresa-may-another-campaign-dodges-hard-brexit-questions

The Tories are deflecting emotional responses away from themselves That's not a sign of strength. Its a sign of weakness in their policies and weakness in their own vote. They don't want attention drawn to it

I agree RTB, it's transference and the reason from that article, thanks Kaija.

The old tricks are the best tricks.

And it suggests there is something dodgy about Brexit that those who keep campaigning for it don’t want to be properly scrutinised.

I had to leave the room while Jeremy Hunt was on

Motheroffourdragons - this is a reasonable summary of yesterday's debate http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39694370 although it doesn't mention that the Conservatives kept their heads down while reading their statements and refused to take any interventions (so I can't say that they debated ).

Essentially their argument was that we need to make cuts and that sometimes hard choices have to be made. They still tried to turn it back on the SNP, saying that they were trying to make political capital out of it and that the SNP could choose to mitigate it.

This conveniently ignores that this policy is part of universal and tax credits - which haven't been devolved.

It also ignores that the SNP MPs have been opposing this for 21 months - and that it only came into force on 6 April via statutory instruments without a debate (despite requests)

It also ignores that this is a UK wide policy - what is immoral & inhumane in Scotland is immoral & inhumane in England, Wales and NI. Professor part time Adam Tomkins, one of the list MSPs, had the temerity to say that forcing women to report rape to the police in NI (which anyone who is aware of a rape is legally obliged to do) has nothing to do with Scotland.

Yet it is the SNP who are accused of being selfish nationalists only caring about people in Scotland . From where I sit, it is the Conservatives who are saying, "The women in Scotland can be protected so who cares?" Aka "We're all right Jack or Jill"

Big choc - I read 'banks' and thought you were talking about Arron!! I was just about to go wtaf is he up to now!

Haha, I thought exactly the same. What nefarious thing is he up to now, a "pop up" pressure group sounds dangerous.

Re banks: the EU has made it abundantly clear that they will not give licences for shell companies.

ECB's Sabine Lautenschlager said: "I would certainly not accept banks’ booking all exposures with the euro area entity while having their risk management and internal control systems outside the euro area."

They are insisting that subsidiaries have to meet the "high standards of European banking regulation" - with adequate staff, assets, risk management etc.

Red - so are you saying then that we should look back at the 2010 result to see any swing there and see if it could be replicated again ?

In a way yes. But in a way no.
I'll try and explain a bit more and what i think will happen in politics in the next 20 years. It's a little bit in way of a round the houses answer but i think its also relevant, as it's also about why Corbyn won't succeed.

The Tories have capitalised by moving to the right. I've seen some call it the 'new centre' to try and normalise the far right. In reality the centre doesn't move because it's a political definition not a political movement. The Tories have merely embraced the right who were always there.

So what about the left who are 'always there'. This is Corbyn's great hope. He believes it's there it just doesn't have a voice and huge numbers of people don't vote because there is no one on the left to represent them. This is why many believe in Corbyn so strongly.

Corbyn has three problems as I see it: the first is the numbers game, the second is momentum (as in the word not the political group - but the name shows something) and the third is emotional connectivity and 'a cause'.

I'll start with a cause as it's probably easiest to explain and most relevant to the thread. The far right had a cause and that cause is/was Europe. It provoked emotional responses. It got people to stir from political apathy and do something. What's Corbyn's cause as such? Inequality. Except it's shown that people don't respond to it in the same way as 'unfairness'.

Historically inequality as a political movement has died a bit of a death and it's track record is that it's ultimately doomed to fail because of human nature. I think it's had its time within western society. That's not to say that there isn't a belief that the less able shouldn't be looked after by society. It's just the way we do it.

Corbyn actually appeals to many on the side of the coin who believe in the unfairness of their lot rather than inequality. Young people who see how they aren't going to get the same opportunities as the baby boomers.

Is this going to continue as baby boomers die off? No probably not, as more middle class Corbyn supporters get older and benefit from their grandparents.

Where political movements in the UK succeed is when both the middle class and working class both buy into it.

The reason Corbyn is doing better in London then elsewhere is due to demographic differences. It's not just ethnic diversity. It's age. London has a younger demographic and perhaps some of the issues of the future are arriving there first. It's uniting the middle and working class better than Corbyn is doing outside the capital. Where it looks like it's popular he may well attract previously apathetic voters to vote when they haven't previously.

This is where the numbers game hits too though. Even if Corbyn were to get every young apathetic non-voter out, he can't beat the existing number of babyboomers who is in the habit of voting.

He fails to appeal to pensioners. It's funny how he's trying to break into that group by supporting the triple lock when the triple lock is actually driving inequality at the moment because of its structure (as opposed to it's principle of protecting pensioners).

This is why i think its about understanding your area. Understanding it's demographic this time, understanding what's motivating people to vote and what way they are going to jump. I think the left side of the political spectrum is more attractive in London because of how people perceive things to be unfair and their demographic (age and ethnic diversity) being different to outside London. Its also why the LDs are not as much of a player here, except in the areas which are slightly more economically to the right of centre - generally the better off areas, where the idea of inequality is important but doesn't resonate quite so well and the demographic is slightly older. (The Lib Dems are generally terribly middle class and unfortunately the way they are structured in their membership is problematic to that.)

What of the future of the left then? Corbyn thinks he's it or more accurately momentum is. It's why he will try and drag Labour through out the other side of the election and won't quit.

I don't think he's right because he's not hitting the right notes and because the unions are intrinsically corrupt and part of the social establishment. They are a relic of the industrial revolution. We are talking about a third wave of industry at the moment. The UK went its first day without coal last week.

Where the future of the left lies and where emotions can be provoked, i believe is in the environmental movement. There are plenty of issues that will unite working class and middle class. I think the direction of travel will only amplify some of those concerns. The issues will become more geographically spread. Housing plays into this. So does fracking. So does air quality and by extension health. What is lacking is a centralising force and a leader. Brexit could provide the first. We just need a 'Farage' of the left. That can't be a 70 year old man with a ton of political baggage. He (and Labour) are viewed too much as morally bankrupt. The Greens need to make some break through a for it to start being taken seriously though. Presently they also tend to be more middle class but i think environmental issues are going to affect every one and in time have wider appeal because economic issues and policy are closely linked with better distribution of resources and public ownership.

This is also why I think perhaps you are unlikely to see the LDs and especially Labour commit to pacts with the Greens except out of political convenience.

I'm very intrigued to see what's going to happen in Bristol West for that reason. The Greens are second here and a close second to Labour so have the magic of being a viable and credible alternative who can win.

How should you vote this time? Look for potential swings. Where can votes come from? What's the demographic? Are they more likely to be swayed towards the LDs, Labour or indeed the Greens? If it's not there, I'd seriously give thought to what direction of travel do you think is best. Think about that popular vote and how that might affect political thinking and how other people view a party. Is that going to be a sudden tip to the left. Is it going to be a more gradual shift back to the centre. Is it going to be both together?

Can Labour achieve this? Is Corbyn's baggage also Labour's? Do the party as a whole have too much baggage? Can they turn it around or will the LDs / Greens do it better? (Remember the LDs appeal to parts of the right so this is not just a left/right thing and Blair's Labour was to all intents a centre party with a left lean rather than a left propped up by the far left despite Corbyn's best attempts. The rise of the BNP and then UKIP matches with the rise of Blair and the idea of the abandonment of the far left/parts of the working class by Blair).

FWIW this is why I'm not convinced about unsophisticated tactical voting. Its crude and it has lots of conflicting interests. It dilutes the message about how people think politics should go. The agenda is still set by who you are voting against to a degree and not about what you are voting for.

Popularists are looking for what people are passionate and get worked up about to chase every vote. Hence the popular vote matters.

That said I wouldn't rule out tactical voting completely, especially if you are somewhere you think it could make a difference and the direction of travel is favourable. If was somewhere where i thought i could give the incumbent Tory a good kicking I'd vote accordingly. (And perhaps this is what part of the vote for the Conservatives will actually be about - rather than a vote for the Conservatives - in a continuation of the 'Brexit rebellion' in a kicking of the incumbent Labour MP.)

Five years time is important. If you can't beat the trend this time, point the way.

I hope my logic makes sense. I've finally come round to PR for all the above reasons. But would prefer a constituency based version

Ian Dunt‏*@IanDunt*
Cameron's insistence he held referendum to stem rise of populism is as delusional as Blair's reflections on Iraq

Sounds about right.

Five years time is important. If you can't beat the trend this time, point the way.
I went to the local Lib Dem meet last night. We have a Blue-Kip MP who it will take some major major cock up to even dent sadly twat that he is. Local Labour are also in a similar position to LDs btw, so even tactical voting probably won't do anything. Their drive is all about the next 5 years, using the moment to build a good base, reminding people we still exist, etc. now in order to hopefully mount a decent challenge in 5 years. Its somewhat disappointing as I'd love to be able to get rid of our cockwomble MP sooner, however makes a lot of sense.

twitter.com/ftdata/status/857132364966899715
FT Data plot of the Remain Vote vs Lib Den deficit in 2015.

and the article it relates to
www.ft.com/content/44aee8d6-28d7-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
In charts: Brexit factor puts election battleground seats in flux

There is one thing these charts are not taking into account btw. That is intention to vote by Leavers. If the gap between remainers and leavers increases then that boundary line between leave and remain shifts. This is the LDs big hope and the Conservative's fear. 'Crushing' the remain vote is therefore important - and that is why its a psychological ploy BEFORE June 8th to make people think their vote is pointless.

Motheroffourdragons, we are headed for a demographic tipping point - at some point if nothing else.

The Tories inhumane strategy in aiming to killing off certain demographic groups quicker than they otherwise would, by destroying the NHS might bring that forward a couple of years.

(Every cloud and all that... Yes. Desperately clutching at straws)

www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/04/26/general-election-im-like-gandhi-says-ukip-leader-paul-nuttall-in-wolverhampton/
General Election: I'm like Gandhi, says UKIP leader Paul Nuttall inWolverhampton

UKIP leader Paul Nuttall has compared himself to Mahatma Gandhi, saying his party is attacked because it is ‘10 years ahead’ of its political rivals.

and the actual interview:
www.expressandstar.com/news/politics/2017/04/26/interview-ukips-paul-nuttall-talks-brexit-the-black-country-gandhi-and-farage/
Interview: UKIP's Paul Nuttall talks Brexit, the Black Country, Gandhi andFarage
Rob Golledge caught up with UKIP leader Paul Nuttall, who discussed Brexit, Black Country battlegrounds and the party's controversial 'integration policy'

"Raising issues of equality, women’s rights, and FGM are the issues other parties don’t want to tackle".

About those pesky things called demographics Paul...