Westministenders: Oh No Not Another One. Thread that is.

[RedToothBrush]

In this edition of Westministers we play a game of ‘Where are they now?’

In June 2016 our screens were subjected to the sight of a number of particularly vocal MPs who participated in debates and stood on soap boxes to talk about the referendum.

The most noticeable of these for Leave were perhaps Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Gisela Stuart, Nigel Farage, Priti Patel and Kate Hoey. For Remain it was David Cameron, George Osborne, Jeremy Corbyn, Ruth Davidson, Sadiq Khan, Nicola Sturgeon, Nick Clegg and Tim Farron.

It is starting to seem that anyone involved in campaigning either for or against Brexit in June 2016 has faced an epic battle for survival. Just how long can they last before being defeated or conceding defeat.

David Cameron’s scalp was the first to go, as he swanned off leaving everyone to clear up his mess.

Boris Johnson, who was keen to stamp his mark and pitch for the leadership by stitching up Cameron, got stitched up by Michael Gove who also lost his own bid for leadership as a result.

Johnson, of course, still lives to fight another day by getting a nice job as Theresa’s whipping boy. He’s occasionally let out by himself, but its Michael Fallon who does the ‘Grown Up Business’. He was said to be one of the last to support an early election. I can’t think why that might be.

Poor old Gove is now confined to a straight-jacket, the back benches where he’s been told to think about what he’s done like a naughty school child and a column in the Times

Andrea Leadsom was sent to a field of cows never to be seen again except to pop up for the odd cameo line shouting about ‘Jam’.

Queen Theresa also dealt with the other Conservative Leader Leave Candidate Mr Liam Fox, by shipping him off to every dodgy corner of the global to get pampered by state hostility.

Stephen Crabb simply crawled back under his rock.

The announcement of the General Election seems to be like the major soap incident episode where half the cast get killed off by a totally unrealistic disaster because their acting contracts weren’t being renewed.

The quitters and abdicators who now have legged it at the sight of a General Election are Gisela ‘Champion of the Brexit Bus’ Stuart and Nigel ‘Too chicken to be defeated for an eighth time and risk losing my nice EU pension’ Farage. George Osborne took the advice of his school teachers and had another career to fall back on when he didn’t become successful in his first choice.

Its rather starting to look like the curse of being a leading Brexiteer is to be made to disappear off the face of the earth or fuck off when the going gets tough. Have you seen Priti Patel lately? Does she even still exist? And Chris Grayling? He was convinced he was going to get chancellor when he supported May in her bid for the leadership.
Instead he got packed off transport and disappeared off the face of the earth much to the annoyance of everyone caught up in the rail strikes.

The only one who is remotely visible seems to be David Davis and is like May’s pet poodle who just tries to please his owner.

It’s almost like the only one still standing or hasn’t been banished is Kate Hoey. And the Lib Dems are trying to work on that one and make her sink beneath the waves, on board her Alan Partridge Titanic once and for all.

Conversely the visible Remainers seem to be – on the face of it - fairing rather better at the moment.

Sadiq Khan is hugely popular and actually does his job rather than fannying about on zip wires. Ruth Davidson is also well respected and apparently has saved Priti Patel’s job from abolition. If the rumours are to be believed bored with scrapping with Nicola, she might be lining herself up for ‘Big Things’ in Westminister. Cameron’s one time love interest, Nick Clegg hasn’t shaken the tarnish of the coalition but he is enjoying a new reputation as the Brexit Soothsayer and some people actually know who Tim Farron is now, which is progress. Nicola Sturgeon is of course riding high and seems to be a permanent thorn in Theresa’s side.

Jeremy ‘I’m a Remainer, honest comrades’ Corbyn is the one who seems to be something of a walking disaster area yet is also thriving with it like a zombie who just keeps going regardless of what you throw at him.

And then of course there is Queen Theresa. The Remainer. Who has crushed everyone in her party. Not just the saboteurs. Even her supposed ally Hammond and BBF Rudd have been thrown under the bus at her wimb when its suited May personally.

The General Election now sets a new scene and opportunity for new characters to emerge. Now the rats have left the ship or been put in their place.

Will May set course to the left or to the right or simply plow on like a bull in a china shop?

Anyway I’m now looking forward to the shocking soap opera moment where your favourite hero or villain gets killed off in a twist you didn’t see coming. Role on June 8th. If only to get pass the upcoming horror of the next six weeks.

Scotland with Scottish MPs represented in all UK wide parties at Westminster is the solution that may finally get Devolution to a settled functioning solution.

I agree with this.

I originally thought that having such a big block voice in the HoC was good for Scotland - make sure they're not brushed aside so much.
Now I think it's counterproductive as neither Labour, Tory nor Lib Dem are being pressured from within enough.

Some Scottish constituency-representing Tory MPs in govt will mean that Scotland has a stronger voice within the ruling party.
(assuming it will be a Tory govt).

Turns out Starmer is a total dick. Who'd have thought?

It's such a shame, he did excellent work for women on sex offences when he was DPP.

I've had a really busy day, can't see anything after quick glance at headlines... what did Starmer say/do?

I'm extremely sceptical somewhat cynical about such a scenario Copper: having plenty of Conservative MPs in Scotland during the Thatcher & Major years didn't exactly do a lot for Scotland's interests

Starmer has said Labour policy is to say no to FOM. They can spin it how they want but I think on here we all know that no FOM = hard Brexit = Labour are aligning themselves with the Tories on this issue. Any differences between the two parties on brexit are window dressing.

She had over 20 (roughly half the number of Labour MPs) for her first 2 parliaments - during which she did the dry run on the poll tax in Scotland.

Did she really ? Jeez1

I am surprised that this isn't common knowledge. To my mind that is when the SNP began to take off as a political force. (Just viewing it as someone from England.)

While we are talking about Tories in Scotland, it is worth mentioning that every. single. one. of the 39 Conservative MSPs voted against condemning the rape clause today in Holyrood - and posting up the link again to the petition challenging this immoral and inhumane UK wide policy:

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/195077

Please sign - doesn't matter where in the UK the women and children affected are, they are all impacted and they deserve better.

An 8 page form to complete to "prove" to someone from the DWP or a 3rd party that you were raped And then the fear, if you've tried to put it behind you, that your 3rd child will find out that they were the result of rape as you are getting "too much" money

This is not the sort of society I want to live in

The SNP (in particular Alison Thewliss, the MP for Glasgow Central) has been fighting this in WM since it was first included (in the small print) in GO's budget 21 months ago but it was introduced on 6 April via statutory instruments, without even a proper parliamentary debate (despite repeated requests)

The 1979 election was the first one I could vote in, which is why I remember it I actually made a special trip home from St Andrews to vote.

I wasn't an SNP supporter back then - and would have voted against "Home Rule" in the vote a few months earlier, but wasn't yet old enough to vote (but my vote counted as No anyway as I was on the register).

The wipe out actually occurred in the Labour landslide of 1997. Since 2001, the Conservatives managed to "recover" to 1 MP, which it has sustained since then although not the same constituency

David Mundell, the lonely sole Conservative MP has a majority of under 1,000 and is on the "list" of MPs being investigated for dubious expenses. His campaign (for a rural constituency down beside the border) expenses had zero, zilch, nada for travel expenses. This despite numerous social media references of trips of activists down from Glasgow to Dumfriesshire.

Not made up my mind yet Mo4D but given Labour are not giving me anything to vote for and I agree with the Conservatives on Brexit and Independence it may yet come to that - not that it makes any difference as I live in one of the many SNP / Labour central belt seats. If I lived over the constituency boundary I would vote Labour as the SNP only won on differential turn out last time and there is a slim hope of voting Labour to get rid of them there.

Are Labour against the rape clause ?
Against benefit cap and cuts ?
The lower money and 6 week delay on Universal Credit ?
Cuts to the nhs ?

I'm no fan of Labour, but compared to the Tories - Labour are chaotic, but not cruel

For those who think benefits should just provide enough to survive,
maybe ask if they support "warehousing the disabled" - a dreadful reduction in quality of life - to save money:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/25/disabled-people-disabilities-health-care-homes

maybe ask if they support "warehousing the disabled" - a dreadful reduction in quality of life - to save money:

This is so horrible - and makes me increasingly angry what that professed Christian, Theresa May (and I am a Christian myself) is leading our country into. How some of you can say you are voting Tory because you don't like Corbyn, (who I am no fan of), increasingly makes me feel disgusted. Kid yourselves that the Tories will look after the sick and the poor. They aren't now, so what makes you think they will in future? They won't.

To be fair on Labour, they are against the rape clause. Not sure how active they've been at WM (I seem to recall a Labour MP who was supporting Alison Thewliss) but Kezia Dugdale was passionate and articulate today in Holyrood in her condemnation of the clause.

LibDems, Greens and Labour all voted with the SNP today. There were just 31 (Conservative) votes opposing the motion (which condemned the policy).

rtb interesting analysis on LibDem strategy but not showing in polling yet and in lots of cases Lab / LibDem vote split lets the relatively more solid Tory vote through the middle surely?

In lots of constituencies that is fairly true. Which is why there is all this pact stuff going on and why the Conservatives are polling so well. Not because people like them so much more.

Part of that is because X Party seen as not a viable alternative because they 'can't win' in that constituency because of how they performed in 2015. The narrative about who 'can' and 'can't win' is such an important and persuasive one. People who vote and are considering changing their vote to get the incumbent out, are aware of who won last time, but perhaps don't look further than that.

It depends on how things end up splitting this time but I do think weird things could happen in certain scenarios. This is where tactical voting based on who came 2nd in 2015 could be unhelpful.

I think that Labour was propped up hugely in 2015 by former LD voters. If that is indeed the case, then I can see that reversing too but so will parts of the Con vote.

Nationally, the LDs retained something like 29% of their 2010 vote in 2015. They lost more of their 2010 vote to the CON than to Labour by some distance.

Its not evenly distributed though.

Whilst Labour made bigger gains off the LD in terms of numbers of voters in 2015, they gained far fewer seats from them than the Conservatives did. This perhaps shows a disproportionate distribution of centrist 2010 LD voters. They are arguably more concentrated in Tory seats. Hence have more potential to make more of a difference in those seats. Its why I wouldn't call the Tory vote 'more solid' too. Its just a question of where the fractures are geographically located and their wholesale shift to the right which has brought in more voters from the right.

Take my constituency as an example:
If I run the national swings then you'd have expected the Cons to get 8,000 votes LESS then they actually did in 2015. Lab would have got some 3,500 votes LESS. And the LDs would have got 2000 MORE.

That's some 11,500 roughly centre ground voters in the vast majority of cases. That's enough to really make a difference to many constituencies. And its disproportionately right leaning. In my constituency, I suspect there are also a large number of remainers who are tribalists would potentially would switch if they thought there was a credible centre alternative who could win. And there in lies the problem. Once your vote collapses its more difficult to get it back. Not because people don't like your current message, but because of how people view the chances of winning and how emotional they are about your past performance and whether they can let that go.

The vote isn't split on the left, its split in the centre with a void where many people would vote but there is no credible alternative which they think can win. This was where Labour was, and now isn't. And this is where the LDs are but aren't seen as either a) a credible alternative b) still tarred with anger over the coalition c) because they have alienated moderate leavers, and d) people don't think they can reverse the huge losses they had in 2015.

The Tory strategy is to try and capitalise on that, and force people in the middle to make the decision between them and Labour because the LDs are 'already out of the picture'. That's where and why that word 'strong' is being banded about so much. Its evocative.

The Tories are deflecting emotional responses away from themselves. That's not a sign of strength. Its a sign of weakness in their policies and weakness in their own vote. They don't want attention drawn to it.

Also try and get away from the misnomer about the Conservatives coming through the middle to beat anyone. They aren't. They are coming from the Right. Much of this so called Tory 'strength' is being build off the back of UKIP voters. Who are notoriously unreliable at the polls. There is a certain fragility to that vote. The figures on the number of UKIPs who are considering not voting at all, is interesting. Can the Tories rely on gaining enough to cover the ones they will lose to the LDs?

This is also why the Tories are making it 'Them V Us' in regard to May v Corbyn. Knowing full well that right leaning centrist would rather cut off their own arm than go with Corbyn. The political jump is bigger - too big - than staying with the Tories as they head right. Plus the Tories are trying to create this perception that they are not going further to the right at the same time. Note its about Corbyn not Labour in much of the campaigning. Note that the LD are the third irrelevant rather than being a threat to the Conservatives directly (and they have the most chance of anyone of winning seats from them).

They are trying desperately to convince the middle to stay with them. Support is not coming from the middle.

They are trying to provoke lots of emotion. The EU ref was about emotion v rationality. Think about that hard as this campaign unfolds. How is it affecting you, and others around you?

In terms of my own constituency, the Cons have a majority of a few thousand over Labour. They are the obvious choice to stop the Tories because the LDs 'aren't in it' as they barely scrapping their deposit back in 2015.

The trouble is, the only possible scenarios I can see the Conservatives losing in are really unlikely ones which I'm seeing no evidence of and I do believe it would have to come from the LDs not Labour as its all about that huge number of 2010 LDs who went Conservative in 2015 and where their vote goes this time. There just aren't enough votes elsewhere that are likely to move in the direction of Labour, because the LD were so rock bottom to begin with.

support warehousing the disabled

FINALLY someone is talking about the long awaited return of the Workhouse / Poorhouse / Asylum.

Its not exactly a surprise that such Victorian ideas are appearing at the same time as they are being spouted everywhere else is it?

Interesting analysis Red. Where I am, Labour never comes anywhere, and it was a LibDem constituency from 1997-2010. The 2010 campaign was won by a very narrow margin after a dirty campaign by the Tories.

The tuition fees business hit hard in 2015 being a university constituency, but since then - scientific and medical research are going to be hit by a hard Brexit, universities are beginning to lose research staff and research grants, and the status of the BMW factory is unknown. We were also a Remain constituency and the MP has of course turned her coat - and is now listed as a hard-Brexiter, which I don't imagine she will like.

We expect the UKIP vote to go back to the Tories, and just hope that they can't be bothered to turn out. So the LibDems feel they have all to play for - Greens haven't done well traditionally, so, well, we will see.

CopperRose, speech for broadcasting entails about three words per second, so 'Tories' once a minute isn't actually all that frequent.